NPD Insight

Toys in lockdown: a consumer favourite

Moneeba looks at the latest data for toy sales in the early part of 2021 and finds, so far, a continuation of the trends the industry experienced in 2020.

With the UK toy market performing better than expected and growing by +5% in 2020, the industry is now eager to know how this year is going to pan out. While there is no crystal ball, we do have the first month’s 2021 data, which shows that the market continues to perform well with the month of January up +3%. Consumers have bought fewer toys this month - 1.4m units down versus 2020 - but crucially they have spent more, with the market valued over £95m for January. Currently, we’re in a third national lockdown, with children being home-schooled and non-essentials stores closed. At the time of writing, there are still a couple of weeks to go before we find out the government’s roadmap out of lockdown, but one thing we do know for certain is that consumers spend money on toys during lockdown. We saw a similar trend last year in lockdown No.1; toy sales grew by +22%. So far, the January results indicate that 2021seems to be a continuation of what we saw last year. After a year of market growth, what toys are consumers buying and how has the beginning of this year played out?

The first week of 2021 showed the market down -8% YOY. However, since schools closed abruptly on January 4th, the market has grown every week versus 2020. Week 2 was up +11% despite non-essential store closures, week 3 up +8% and the last week in January was up +6%, bringing the total figure for January 2021 to +3%. Purchasing trends are similar to what we saw in 2020, with consumers buying more Standard Building Sets this month versus January 2020; the subclass has gained over £4m in just one month alone. Strong licensing partnerships such as Lego Star Wars and Lego Harry Potter mean this category has been a consumer favourite whilst in lockdown. The category also continues to innovate; one of the top new launches of 2020 continues to perform well this year, with Lego Super Mario Brothers adding over £673k for January. Another consumer favourite during this pandemic has been Games & Puzzles. With more free time and less spend on experiences and holidays, consumer spend across the Games & Puzzles supercategory has grown by a quarter, accounting for 15% of toys share this month. Last year we saw consumers buy classic games and items they were familiar with; this is a trend that has carried on this month. Family Board/Action Games has added over £1m so far this year and we’ve seen classic games continue to perform well. Monopoly, Scrabble and Uno have all grown YOY this month. Adult Puzzles also makes the top 10, adding just under £290k this year.

Interestingly, despite the snow and really cold weather, January has seen another lockdown favourite, Outdoor Toys, add value to the toy market. Trampolines and Playsets have grown by triple digits in January, and Play Houses/Bouncy Houses and Sand & Water Boxes by double digits. These higher priced point items have driven value growth, with the subclass increasing its average price point by over two thirds. The uplift in Outdoor & Sports Toys could be down to parents purchasing these items ahead of the summer and especially having these items to keep children occupied whilst being in lockdown. It is worth noting however, that the Outdoor & Sports toys growth will be a challenge to match later in the year, given how well this category performed in the summer months of 2020.

One of the main trends we saw in 2020 was that consumers replaced impulse purchasing with considered purchasing. There was a move to higher priced toys, as impulse occasions were lost due to non-essential store closures, and the same trends are unsurprisingly evident so far this year. Toys priced at less than £5 lost almost £30m in terms of value in 2020. With early shopping happening in October and November as part of the Government’s message to shop early to reduce the spread of the virus, impulse purchasing suffered in December with fewer stocking filler items being bought. 75% of total December loss came from the £0-£15 price point, and with many stores closed, the lower price point has inevitably continued to decline so far in 2021. Toys at less than £5 are showing a decline of -22%, with 1.2m fewer units being sold. The market growth we saw in 2020 came from higher price points, with all price points over £20 showing growth. The £20 to £50 price range added £73m to the market and items over £100 added nearly £34m. These trends continue with all £20+ price points growing for January.

Early reads on the first week of February saw another extraordinary growth week, up +18% YOY. Fewer toys are still being bought with unit downs -4%, but the total market for the week is valued at over £26m. Key players and properties continue to show double digit growth as we head into February. With plans to exit lockdown shortly after this article has been published and over 15m people already vaccinated in the UK, the second half of this year will be an interesting period for the toy market. It is reasonable to conclude that the toy market has benefitted from adults and children being at home and having the free time to learn, play and explore with toys, so how will the potential return of experiences and travel opportunities affect this pattern?

Item Progression:

With the Premier League in full swing, the Panini Premier League Football 2021 Sticker Collection Pack has been a consumer favourite in January. Climbing 699 places from December, unit sales have grown by triple digits YOY, selling over 460k worth of sticker packs. With an average price of 92p, this item has generated £430k in terms of value and was the fastest selling in terms of value velocity in the Non-Strategic Trading Cards/Collectible Stickers subclass. Distribution has increase by +5 ppts in the last month, with 54% distribution for the month of January.

Fastest Growing Themes in the UK

Wheeled Vehicles themed toys added the most amount of value, +£38m, to the toy market in 2020. Growing properties such as Hot Wheels, Lego Technic and The Fast & Furious Lego mean this was also the number one theme in toys overall. Higher priced Lego Lamborghini, Ferrari and Porsche items contributed to the category’s 25% growth. The success of Star Wars led Space to be the second fastest growing theme in total toys, up +22% YOY, adding over £12m to this theme. Movie success from Disney’s Frozen also meant that the Princess theme was the No.3 fastest growing theme in the toy market in 2020. Frozen as a property grew by +49% with the help of core Dolls lines, Fashion Doll Accessories, and Lego Frozen. The success of Barbie was also a key factor in this theme’s success. Harry Potter continued to grow in 2020, up +17% YOY, making Witches/Wizards the 4th fastest growing theme in toys. The theme overall added £8.2m to toys across Harry Potter Lego, Funko items and Games items too.

Themes which added smaller value last year such as Dinosaurs, Fairies, Sloths and Superheros will be key in bringing innovation to the market this year and help continue the market growth. With many new items delayed until 2021, new items and new themes will be a focus for many in the industry this year.

To monitor what’s happening in the ever-changing toy market, NPD collects point-of-sale information from all major toy retailers. This information, combined with our analysts’ industry perspectives, delivers a comprehensive view of what’s selling and where. We also field over 12m consumer surveys annually to help industry leaders understand why consumers shop where they shop and why they buy what they buy. For more information visit www.npd.com. Follow NPD on Twitter @npdgroup.