Feature - Q1 Ranges

Q1 a new dawn

There can be no beating around the bush – the first few months of 2023 are likely to be far more challenging than any of us would like. But there are nonetheless opportunities out there for the taking, as Toy World discovers.

It’s usually very easy to write an upbeat, forwardlooking, optimistic piece about the first quarter of a new year – but this one has unsurprisingly been a little trickier. We’re all aware that recent events have placed financial strain on a huge number of British consumers: the October mini-budget shock has sent mortgage rates through the roof, new chancellor (at the time of writing) Jeremy Hunt has announced a U-turn on the government’s energy bills support package, inflation continues to rise (pushing up the price of everything from fuel to food), and a recession appears to be on the horizon. For many, these issues have translated into a real-world impact on disposable income and spending power that won’t go away any time soon.

“I think Q1 2023 is going to be far harder to navigate than Q4 2022 for the general public, and for the industry – it will possibly be one of the toughest first quarters we will have ever seen,” notes Sara Taylor, MGA UK & Ireland’s managing director. “January and February tend to be the coldest months of winter and the cost of energy consumption is going to be at its highest in decades. More fixed mortgage deals will be coming to an end, and while people may not buy as many presents this Christmas, key value purchases will put a squeeze on spending through the early part of 2023.”

Bear with me – I promise this article isn’t going to be wall-to-wall bad news: we all work in the toy industry, after all. For a start, kids get money at Christmas - some of them a lot of it – and younger kids are very likely to spend that money on toys. In previous years we’ve heard from numerous retailers who can attest to this, and there’s no reason to think the same wouldn’t be true of 2023. Spending might be reduced, but it will be there, and retailers with fresh, new and exciting ranges lining their shelves will almost certainly be visited by kids wielding gifted Christmas money (or vouchers).

Based on the current climate, it’s reasonable to assume pocket-money toys and collectibles will be even more popular during the Q1 period than they usually are. Sara agrees, telling Toy World she thinks the biggest first quarter opportunities will lie with price points of £10 and under, particularly if a product range has a strong collectible element to it and is well supported with robust marketing. “Consumers will always look for good value for money, and these price points tend to deliver on that,” she adds.

As you’ll see within this feature, there’s plenty of toys that fit this particular bill, either in terms of their RRP or collectability. Magicbox, for example, is launching new additions to its SuperThings, KookyLoos and T-Racers ranges, all of which combine strong play value with collectible elements and exciting features. Schleich is pulling out all the stops in the new year too, introducing new figurines to its Wild Life, Horse World, bayala, Eldrador, Dinosaurs and Farm World ranges, including a Chameleon – the brand’s first colour-changing figurine. HGL (from One for Fun), meanwhile, is adding to its pocket-money line-up with a raft of squishy, squeezy stretchy items including sausage dogs, caterpillars, springs, hand puppets, reptiles, sharks, stretchy strings in the shapes of unicorns and mermaids, animal eggs and flying discs. Brainstorm is introducing new Eugy and StikBot additions as well as a new spinning top encased in a special enclosure that transforms the top into a multi-coloured light show. We’ve also heard tell of a very exciting new addition to the YuMe Toys Mystery Capsule portfolio, distributed by KAP Toys.

As for MGA, the company behind L.O.L. Surprise!, Rainbow High and much more, consumers can expect a ‘good dollop of newness throughout 2023’ from the word go, with Sara noting that if companies are going to encourage consumers to part with their hardearned cash, it will have to be for very good reasons. Newness, she adds, is always top of her list.

For some companies, however, newness is proving slightly harder to offer. Paul Reader, marketing director at the independent buying group Toymaster, says that in previous years several suppliers would have started shipping products by now for major Boxing Day launches - but many have been pushed back to later in 2023. Paul cites concerns about overstocking among the reasons for this, saying suppliers are seeing orders cancelled by majors and are reacting accordingly. As a result, Toymaster has pushed back its traditional January window display, which normally heavily leans into the ‘new, new, new!’ aspect of Q1 launches, to February.

Paul agrees that pocket money toys and collectibles are likely to perform well in the first quarter, though he also highlights the fact that licensed toys are currently bucking something of a downwards trend. According to The NPD Group, licensed toys are up +4% (in a market which is currently down -5% year to date), accounting for 29% of the market – its highest share for many years. So could licensed toys also be high on kids’ post-Christmas wish lists? Probably. For a start, 2023 is Paw Patrol’s 10th anniversary year, and there’s likely to be plenty of activations and coverage surrounding the big event, so awareness and product demand will be high. Another pre-school favourite, Bluey continues to benefit from an ever-expanding raft of toys, including new wooden role-play products from 8th Wonder, while Gabby’s Dollhouse has been mentioned in a number of Top Toys for Christmas lists this year. Given the demand for the big dollhouse play set, there are clearly plenty to kids out there who would leap at the chance to get their hands on new licensed products from the likes of Posh Paws (plush) and Vivid Goliath (Crayola craft sets).

Then there’s the upcoming Super Mario film, which is slated for release two days before Easter on 7th April and again, is likely to result in soaring demand for licensed product. Super Mario licensee Epoch Games is launching a new game in Q1 which Epoch Making Toys’ commercial director John Briggs says is reminiscent of the much-loved video games: “Super Mario Rally Tennis encourages healthy competition, can provide endless fun, and is out-of-the-box ready with no batteries required. It will also form part of our popular Link System. Enabling players to interchange characters between games, the system is perfect for those who have already bought in to the range, keeping play interesting and adding greater value.”

Miraculous will also benefit from its own movie in spring 2023, albeit a TV one. The hit animated property continues to perform well across a range of territories, with Bandai, Sinco and Rubies all on board as licensees and all launching brand new lines for Q1. Bandai’s new Miraculous Magic Heroez colour reveal fashion doll offers an ‘unboxing experience full of surprises’ enhanced by a fun water reveal, while Sinco is launching Miraculous Plush Backpacks and Clip-On Plush Characters, and Rubies has unveiled its upcoming Miraculous accessory sets.

As we saw during the height of the pandemic, consumers are also turning to trusted household brands right now. Once the festive season is out of the way, it’s likely this will continue, especially amidst ongoing financial uncertainty. John Briggs also says: “Consumers are looking for toys which offer longterm play value, and this has enabled our brands to strengthen their position in their respective categories. We can only see this need for play value continuing and potentially becoming even more important to consumers in 2023.”

Epoch’s beloved Sylvanian Families brand will continue to expand the ever-popular Amusement Park range with the Floating Cloud Train, while the introduction of an adorable new family – the Fennec Fox Family - provides yet another opportunity for fans of the fuzzy critters to expand their collections. Leading nurturing doll brand Baby born’s new Baby born Bear arrives for Easter - the cute 36cm plush bear, billed as Baby born’s ‘best friend’, can be used with all Baby born accessories, offering huge added play value for existing fans of the brand. And in January, the Monster High franchise is back with a bang as Mattel brings its spooky fashion doll brand back to shelves for a new generation of kids more than two decades after it first arrived on the scene.

Playmobil, which has been around since the 70s and is familiar with kids and parents across the globe, is keeping with the times by moving into the anime space as it welcomes Naruto Shippuden to its portfolio. The launch range will comprise 12 popular figures from the huge anime franchise, which will be followed later in the year by a further 12 characters. Toy World’s online story on this generated quite a buzz: it appears it’s definitely one to watch.

Of course, Playmobil’s slate of Q1 offerings isn’t limited to anime collectibles, as marketing manager Adam Moore explains: “Playmobil's Q1 launches are a mix of classic play themes and collectibles, both of which are synonymous with Playmobil. Starting each new year by highlighting some of the fantastic upcoming ranges really helps cement our success for the rest of the period. Playmobil’s new Emergency Rescue and Farm themes maintain our brand ethos of classic imaginative playthings and bring with them an amazing marketing support package within media and in store theatre.”

“Retailers have the opportunity to maximise instore exposure with an array of POS options, including sales stands, window displays and in store POS,” Adam adds. “Alongside this, awareness will be driven by extensive TV, digital and social campaigns that continue throughout the year. And while media plays an important part in delivering messaging, so does getting products into kids’ hands and letting them experience our toys up close and personal.”

MGA, meanwhile, is investing heavily in a diverse and targeted mix of marketing to support new launches and the innovation that comes with them. In addition, Sara explains that the company will also be ‘both proactive and reactive’ with the promotional calendar to make sure it supports the trade as much as possible as the unchartered waters of 2023 begin to unfold.

“None of us can really predict what is going to happen next week, never mind next quarter,” she adds. “But keeping laser focused on the data and responding appropriately to it will be key to creating sustainable sales early in 2023.”