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Circana - Insight
How are UK toy sales comparing to other territories?
Although the total UK Toy market performance remains aligned with other countries thanks to global economic challenges, there are some notable differences in areas such as licences and collectibles, as Melissa explains
The UK Toy market has declined -4% in value YTD September 2023 as the cost of living continues to impact disposable income spending for consumers, while poor summer weather affected sales in Q3. However, this is in-line with the rest of the European performance, which is also down -4%. In addition, Europe is significantly ahead of North America, which is down -8%. The Global toy market, worth $107b in 2022, had been growing since 2019, but is now adjusting as consumers find less money in their pockets due to inflation and a changing social media landscape; consumers now tend to discover new products in different ways. Out of the 13 countries where Circana tracks toy sales, only three are in growth in 2023 –Mexico, Netherlands and Italy.
In the UK, certain elements of the toy market are performing better than the rest of Europe. Licences continues to enjoy a very strong presence, growing +4% in the UK Toy market vs. +1% in EU5 (UK, France, Germany, Italy & Spain). Licences have a higher share of the UK toy market compared to other European countries: they currently have a 31.5% share of UK value sales, similar to the 31% share in US, but much higher than the 24.3% licensed share in France, which has the lowest share in Europe. Licences are outperforming non-licensed toy sales across all countries. Known IPs and entertainment properties such as Barbie, Paw Patrol, Marvel and Star Wars are key drivers of sales, especially during movie releases. Some licences have a higher share in the UK compared to other countries, although Star Wars is the No.1 licence in both the UK and Europe (interestingly, it has a higher share of UK market than the US, 2.9% compared to 1.9%). Harry Potter, although the No.2 licence in the UK toy market, actually has a higher share of toy sales in Italy.
Collectibles also have a higher share in UK compared to the rest of Europe, with 16.4% value share and growing +9%. This is still behind the US, where Collectibles has 18.7% share, but ahead of EU5 average of 11.5%. Pokémon is the top Collectible property for UK and Europe, with the Trading Cards driving sales. Squishmallows has been key to the growth of the collectible market across Europe this year, with double the share of collectibles in UK compared to the rest of Europe. Similarly, L.O.L. Surprise! and 5 Surprise also have a higher share in the UK versus the rest of Europe. While growing double-digits in the UK, the overall share within Collectibles for both Disney Doorables and Yu-Gi-Oh is still behind their share in the US, showing remaining potential for both properties.
Yu-Gi-Oh! and Anime/Manga themed toys are showing strong growth in the UK market, up +34% YTD September as properties such as Dragon Ball Z, Naurto, My Hero Academia and One Piece are driving growth. Despite this healthy performance, the Anime share in the UK, at 4.9%, is behind the European share of 5.5% ,so there is still plenty of potential for expansion for this area in the UK toy market, as it breaks into mass retailers and raises consumer awareness. One of the other strongest themes in toys is Superheroes, which has a higher share in the UK vs rest Europe, with Spider-Man growing four times faster in the UK this year and Ninja Turtles having a higher share of the market. Star Wars’ strong share of the UK toy market means Space has a higher share in the UK versus Europe, but the UK has also seen strong growth of the NASA licence, up +34% so far this year. Dog Animals and Characters also have a higher share in the UK, with pre-school properties such as Bluey and Hey Duggee showing a strong performance.
Overall, the total UK Toy market performance remains aligned with other countries as the current economic challenges are global. That said, even in challenging times, the toy market has opportunities to grow with themes like Manga and Transportation, while retaining the strength that licences and collectibles are currently bringing to the market.
Item Progression:
Following the start of the new football season, the latest Match Attax range has jumped up the top sellers’ list, with the UEFA Champions League Mega Tins the best performer. Panini’s Adrenalyn XL Premier League packs and starter packs are also growing this month, as sports related licences continue to perform well. Overall, Collectibles continues to grow in the UK toy market, up +9% so far this year and gaining share in September compared to the summer months, with Back to School helping to encourage the collectability of these items.
Top 10 Fastest Growing Subclasses - UK Toys Ranked by value gained Top 10 Fastest Growing Subclasses - UK Toys
Despite the UK Toy market declining -4% YTD September, there are several subclasses that have grown this year, adding value to the market. The fastest gaining subclass is Traditional Plush, where Squishmallows growth continues to be strong. There is also good growth from Keeleco. Licensed Plush is enjoying a strong performance with Pokémon and Disney All Other (including Disney 100 lines) as well as Bluey, Paddington Bear and Care Bears growing. Strategic Trading Card Games is the next largest gaining subclass, with Pokémon the number one property driven by the new Scarlet and Violet range launched this year. September also saw the launch of Disney’s Lorcana in this category, which has performed extremely well.
Standard Building Sets is showing growth, driven by licences such as Star Wars and Marvel. September also saw double digit growth for the Harry Potter licence in Building Sets. Non-Strategic Trading Cards & Stickers growth is driven by Match Attax, as well as the Adrenalyn range from Panini. Both Mini Vehicles and Non-Powered Trucks categories have growth through the Hot Wheels and Monster Jam ranges.
Miscellaneous Toys growth has largely been driven by newness, with MGA’s Miniverse adding value to the category as the top new property in the UK Toy market so far this year. Miscellaneous Toys has also seen growth from Oosh, LankyBox and Scentos.
Talking and Sound growth is from both TonieBox and the Fisher Price Chatter Phone, both growing double-digits this year, while Electronic Handheld Games growth is through Bop-It and Character Options Tap Tap Smart Fidget Assortment.
