NPD Insight

Twas the week(s) before Christmas…

This month, Rory takes a deep dive into the sales figures for December and looks at the trends influencing 2020 Christmas sales.

I’m writing this as we approach the end of 2021, another year that ended up being one most people will be happy to move on from. A couple of weeks away from completing December, easily the most important month for the industry, worth around a quarter of the year’s sales, the market is currently -5% in value vs. 2020 and -8% in volume. It is worth pointing out though, that it is +2% in value vs. 2019. Looking at the three weeks of December data we have, we can see that sales are -4% in value vs. the same three weeks last year. December ended up being in decline last year at -9% vs December 2019, so we are down on a decline last year too. What trends have driven this and what have been the success stories of December this year?

The dip in December sales (up to the time of writing) represents a drop of just under £30m in overall value. December 2019 was the last time we saw any growth for the month with +1% in value vs. December 2018. However, the last couple of years have been anything but ordinary, with December 2020 coming on the back of a November lockdown and an increase in early shopping. This led to the -9% in December 2020 being driven by a big decline in impulse purchases, with consumers possibly not buying as many stocking fillers. But where has the decline come from in December 2021? We have seen a similar -10% volume decline, so maybe we can spot some trends by looking at price points. It is in fact the under £20 price point that has been driving the decline this year, as it was at this stage in 2020, being down -10%. The over £20 price point is in slight growth vs. 2020 at +1%. It appears to be the impulse area that has suffered again, this price point is -17% vs. the same period in December 2019. The positive trend in the over £20 category is being driven by growth in Building Sets, Fashion Dolls and Electronic Entertainment. Let’s take a closer look at some of the items that have been doing well in December.

The No.1 item in December at the time of writing is the Barbie Dreamhouse from Mattel, which has the highest average price of any item in the top 10 at £229. Sales are up on the same period in 2020 too, and it was also one of the standout items of that year. The item at No.3 for December so far is Magic Mixies from Moose Toys, a new item for 2021 and one that has appeared on many top toys lists for the year. Combining elements of several top trends, this item has been popular since launch and, at an average price of just under £70, has been another big Christmas item in December. The list of top items reveals why the over £20 price point is the growing area of the market; there is only one top 10 item under £20: Pictionary Air from Mattel. Even outside the top 10, the list is heavily weighted towards higher priced items, with a few notable exceptions. Purse Pets from Spin Master (another new introduction for Christmas 2021) has an average price just over £20 and has performed well in December reaching No.32. Another item that has performed very well is the Polly Pocket Sweet Treat from Mattel at an average price of £13.50, coming in at No.15 for December to date. This would normally be the period where games items feature highly in the top items, but the top 50 includes only seven games, compared to 12 for the same period in 2020. Are we starting to see some games fatigue after such strong growth last year during the pandemic? Although by the time you read this, games may have featured strongly in the final two weeks of the year.

So, to sum up December 2021 with what we have seen so far, the toy market seems a bit behind where we would have liked to have seen it. A number of factors have been feeding into these trends; the pandemic still being with us coupled with stock and general unease at spending will have all played a part. However, with a fortnight to go, the UK toy market was +2% vs. 2019, with time potentially to still improve on that number.

Licence Progression:

Ever present in the toy market, particularly within the Action Figures category, the WWE licence has moved up 15 places in the licence rankings over the last month. A top 10 licence in the Action Figures subclass for November with sales pretty much flat vs. November 2020, the WWE Basic Figure 15cm Asst from Mattel is the No.16 item in the Action Figures subclass in November at an average price of just over £8.

Fastest growing subclasses - These 10 subclasses have added nearly £70m in 2021.

The top 10 growth subclasses in toys have added nearly £70m to the UK toy market so far in 2021. The top growth subclass is Strategic Trading Cards, which has added nearly £20m this year. This increase is driven by Pokémon, which has seen strong growth in its 25th anniversary year; the No.6 property in the market, but the No.1 growth property in 2021.

Miscellaneous Toys is the 2nd top performer and continues to be boosted by 5 Surprise, which has been one of the top collectible properties in 2021. Traditional Plush is the third best performer, driven by growth in Squishmallows, Bluey and Bing.

Mini Vehicles is also a top growth subclass with Hot Wheels and Monster Jam being the top drivers here. Both of these properties have seen strong growth in 2021 and would hope to see that continue into 2022. Finally, Action Figure Collectibles has returned to growth in 2021 after a tough period in 2020, driven by the pandemic. This increase has been driven by Funko Pop!, Marvel and Harry Potter all having a strong year.