Circana - Insight

A trend positive

Although many have found sales challenging over the early summer months, Rory highlights a bright spot in the market with licensed toy ranges.

Licensed merchandise continues to play a big part in the toy market across Europe and has recently seen a boost in sales from big summer movie releases. Across the EU5, licensing makes up around 27% of sales; in 2019 this was only 23%, so there has been an impressive gain of around four percentage points for licensed toys over the last few years. There are differences by country, but also similarities too; the countries with the most heavily licensed market share are Spain and the United Kingdom, whereas France is the least with 25% in 2023. What is driving this strong performance across Europe?

Licensed toy sales are ahead of the total market trend in every country, with the top growth in licensing currently coming from the UK with a +4% trend in a toy market that is currently down -4% at a total level. There are three countries with a positive trend for licensing: the UK, Spain and France. And in Germany, while licensing is declining by -2%, this is still well ahead of the overall market trend of -5%. Looking across the countries there are some consistencies, and the continued success of Pokémon across Europe is the most notable. Pokémon in the EU5 is worth around €245m so far in 2023 and has grown by +27%, making it the largest property in value size and in value gain. The rise in sales of Pokémon has been impressive, with the property growing from around €185m in 2019 to €478m in 2022. The performance is consistent across Europe; the property is Top 5 across most countries. Other licences that are growing across EU5 include Star Wars with +7% growth, Super Mario Bros with +19% growth and Disney Princess growing by +22%.

Movies, video games and sporting events are all adding to the licensing growth. Some of the strongest growth comes from sports events, with +27% value growth this year, much of this coming from the UK. The reason for this is the performance of the Premier League licence in the UK with Panini stickers and cards. The peak in sales for the Premier League at the start of the year was almost as big as the peak for World Cup related sales in 2022. Premier League Panini sales rose by +38% last year and are currently +59% in 2023, with the peak (in August when the season begins) still to come. This trend looks set to continue.

Movies are another strong area of licensing and one that has had high exposure this year thanks to the Barbie movie which hit cinemas in July, although other big movies have also helped to drive toy sales. Super Mario Brothers is currently the fifth largest licence in Europe for 2023, growing by +20%, after the movie release in early April. This property has grown across a number of categories, with key trends in Building Sets, Action Figures and Vehicles. Transformers: Rise of the Beats hit cinemas in early June and is currently growing by +51% in Action Figures across Europe, making it the fourth top performing property in the category this year.

The July release of the Barbie movie has had a significant and immediate impact on sales. The Barbie property was up +30% in Europe for the month of July and the No.2 property in value size. In some countries, the performance was particularly impressive; in the UK it was the No.1 property for the month and was up a massive +72%. For the first week of August in the UK, Barbie grew by +136%. This growth is likely to continue for a good while yet, and we could see a significant jump in sales when the movie moves onto streaming too.

The final movie to mention is Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, which came out at the very end of July, with sales having already seen significant value increase across the month. It was also the No.8 licence in Action Figures for July. We should see the performance improve even more throughout August with the movie now in cinemas.   

Sales across Europe show that licensed toys are in great shape as we move into the all-important Q4 period. With the wealth of content available and influences coming from movies, sports, digital content and video games, it will be fascinating to see how high the share of licensed sales in the toy market can go.

Licence Progression:

July saw the release of the much-anticipated Barbie movie, and this had a huge impact on toy sales for the month. Barbie was the No.1 property for July, and there was a significant increase in licensed sales too. The top licensed Barbie item for July was the Barbie Styling Head from Just Play, and this was also the top item in the Fashion Role Play & Dressup subclass for the month. The movie has boosted sales in a number of categories, with Barbie sales growing in Craft Kits, Fashion Accessories and Skates/Skateboards & Scooters amongst others.

Top 10 Fastest Growing Subclasses - UK Toys - Ranked by value gained:

Standard Building Sets has added more value than any other subclass in the UK with the latest data in 2023. Lego Star Wars is the largest property in value size within the subclass, growing at +13% versus last year. There has been good growth for several other properties too including Marvel Universe, Lego Speed Champions and Lego Icons. Growth from manufacturers other than Lego shows the Pokémon construction range from Mattel showing triple digit growth vs. last year.

Traditional Plush is the second top performing subclass in the market and has added over £4.5m in 2023 so far. Squishmallows continues to be the leading property and had a +100% value trend in July – it certainly isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. Licences are performing well in this subclass too, with Pokémon, Disney, Nintendo, Paddington and Bluey all in the top 10 and achieving double digit growth or more against last year.

Looking a little further down the list of top gaining subclasses, Action Figures has moved into the No.10 spot. This has been helped by strong movie performances, with the latest Transformers movie adding value in June and the Turtles movie giving this property a boost in July.