IRAN

RB: The continuation of civil unrest in Iran is likely to cause the Iranian economy to become more vulnerable over the coming year. A natural gas supply crisis has carried on through the end of July, and since August 2022, demand has exceeded supply. If anti-government protests continue well into 2023, the situation may become the most severe in Iran’s recent history. This energy crisis will likely lead to more protests as temperatures drop over the winter season. Increasing Iran’s production capacity requires the attraction of foreign financial resources and advanced technology; this, in turn, requires both a renewal of the nuclear deal and the approval of the International Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Neither of these steps appear forthcoming, and the government’s response to the Mahsa Amini protests has only resulted in further sanctions, all but eliminating any possibility of reaching an understanding with the US and its international partners over the coming months.

JM: Iran, renowned as a significant oil producer with the world’s fourth-largest oil and secondlargest gas reserves, has successfully diversified its export base. In 2022, the country exported over a billion dollars worth of iron and steel, plastics, chemicals, and fertilisers each, setting an example for its petroleum-producing neighbours. Iran also exported massive amounts of pistachios, copper, lime and cement.

Iran’s imports mainly consist of food and agriculture, with cereals being the top category. In 2022, Iran imported $2.9 billion worth of cereals from the UAE and over a billion dollars worth from India. Additionally, it imported cars and trucks from Turkey, China, and Germany, electronics from China, and palm oil from Malaysia.

Total exports in 2022 rose to $49.5 billion from $42.6 billion, with China, Iraq, UAE, Turkey, and India being the main markets. Meanwhile, overall imports increased to $58.7 billion from $49 billion. Its main sources of imports were the UAE, China, Turkey, India, and Germany.