SYRIA

RB: The February 2023 earthquakes have allowed President Bashar Al Assad to bolster his position through deeper political and financial engagement with the international community. Saudi Arabia and Qatar, who both do not currently have any official diplomatic ties with the Assad regime, have offered humanitarian aid following the earthquake. The Assad regime subsequently accepted such assistance. Assad will likely use this opportunity to try and establish formal ties with the two countries, thus legitimising the presence of his regime.

These countries, and other regional states, will provide humanitarian aid, but this is likely to face disruption across Syria’s political divides and is not expected to match the spending necessary to meet reconstruction costs or to offset the effects on the economy. Damage from the earthquake will likely also compound existing currency and inflationary risks. The humanitarian risks of food and fuel shortages are likely to be exacerbated by the division of political authority between the governorates affected by the quake.

JM: Syria’s economy has been heavily impacted by the decade-long conflict that has caused millions of deaths, displacements, and destruction. The country’s GDP has been halved between 2010 and 2020, resulting in a poor export economy and a large trade deficit estimated at over $200 billion by the World Bank. Syria’s main exports are agricultural products, such as animal and vegetable fats, fruits and nuts, vegetables and tubers, and tea, sent through smaller niche shipments to trading partners in the Middle East.

Its top imports include plastics, sunflower seed oil, machinery, iron and steel, and malt and wheat gluten. Overall exports increased slightly to $868.5 million in 2022, with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, and Iran being the top markets, while imports increased to $4.4 billion, with Turkey, China, Egypt, Iran, and Jordan being the top sources. Without peace, Syria’s ability to produce and export higher-value goods will be a significant challenge.

Overall exports rose to $868.5 million from $865 million in 2022, with top markets Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt and Iran. Imports increased to $4.4 billion from $4.2 billion, with top sources Turkey, China, Egypt, Iran and Jordan.