Foreseeing the Pulse of the Market in 2019
Traders and investors would be looking towards 2019 now, so getting expert views on what to expect is expedient.
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Stock trading through direct access trading platforms makes online trading easier and more efficient. But for successful trading you also need the opinions of experienced analysts and investment professionals, particularly when you are planning for the year ahead and there seems to be confusion and volatility around. Now that we are in the last month of 2018, it’s time to plan your strategy for 2019. BlackRock analyst Richard Turnill gets the insight of around 100 investment professionals to point out a few trends that could characterize 2019. 2018 Characterized by Equity Sell Off Before we move to 2019, let’s look back at 2018 and characterize what happened this year. Since the equity market reached its peak in January we’ve seen many of the equities being sold off though they had strong earnings reports, with over $6.90 trillion having been scratched off the global market cap. Turnill also points out that we could potentially end 2018 with both bonds and stocks experiencing negative annual returns. Now let’s move to 2019, and what the outlook could be. First Thoughts on 2019 A growth slowdown is what BlackRock’s investment professionals could think of first for 2019. Corporate earnings and global growth would be slowing down. Growth in the US would stabilize at a level significantly higher than the other regions. The impact of domestic fiscal stimulus is gradually fading, and that affects the year-on-year comparisons of growth. The other phenomenon the analysts anticipate is easing of the conditions that led to yields being pushed up and valuations being brought down. They reckon US rates are heading to neutral, with the Fed likely to take a break from the process of tightening. This situation ends up being neutral where growth is neither stimulated nor restricted. Recession Fears Will Continue Fears of recession will become mainstay in 2019. As you know, fears make markets vulnerable. There really may not be much of an actual risk of recession, but the fears can influence markets. In fact, there are signs that the economy will continue to expand in 2019 – factors such as the lack of sufficient signs of an overheating economy, lack of prominent financial vulnerabilities, and a monetary policy that is less aggressive. But BlackRock analysts estimate that after 2019 the odds of a recession rise significantly. They believe that there is a probability of over 50% that recession would strike towards the end of 2021.
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Strategy for the New Year In this situation, BlackRock analysts recommend balancing risk and reward. The negotiations that keep happening between the United States and China would do their part in either raising confidence levels or anxiety levels for investors. This uncertainty is to be expected, so you need to have good assets in your portfolio. If the fears subside, there is a potential market upside too.
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