Defectionraisesspectreofsplitcentre-rightvote

It has been decades since a provincial Conservative party in this province carried any heft on the political scene, so the defection of former BC Liberal MLA John Rustad to the Conservative Party of BC will likely have little short-term impact

However, Rustad’s decision has given his new party a shot in the arm that could translate into making trouble for his old party come the next provincial election.

The BC Conservatives last elected an MLA almost 50 years ago, back in a 1978 byelection.

It was thought to have a fighting chance of winning at least one seat in the 2013 election, when the BC Liberals under then-leader Christy Clark appeared to be in trouble

But the election gave Clark an impressive majority win, while the BC Conservatives received a mere 4.75 per cent of the vote Only a dozen of its 56 candidates even exceeded 10 per cent of the popular vote in their riding

So, there is no reason to believe that Rustad’s move will breathe serious life into a party that has been going nowhere fast for almost 100 years (he had been sitting as an Independent after being expelled from the BC Liberal caucus for disagreeing with the party’s climate change policies).

However, there is a big “but” attached to this analysis

While it is highly unlikely the BC Conservatives will do well on a province-wide basis, the party has a chance of playing a critical role in the outcome of elections in several key ridings

In other words, the party can cause a “split” of the centre-right voter base that, if significant enough, could cause some normally “safe” BC Liberal ridings (as well as ridings the party narrowly wins) to slide to the BC NDP side

If one assumes a vote for a BC Conservative candidate is, for the most part, a vote that would have otherwise gone to the BC Liberals, some interesting scenarios may arise

BC Conservative candidates may not only make it easier for the BC NDP to hang on to those four ridings, but they could also play a prominent role in the outcome of a handful of ridings where the BC Liberals have won by narrow margins in recent elections: Fraser–Nicola, Kamloops–North Thompson and Surrey–White Rock

The BC Liberals are still in rebuilding mode and are about to change their name to BC United. Things are already complicated enough for them

Rustad’s move may be the last thing that party needs as it tries to become competitive again in the crucial regions of suburban Metro Vancouver

Keith Baldrey is the chief political reporter for Global BC