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The construction industry is expected to experience an acute recession this year driven by doubledigit falls in the two largest construction sectors: Private Housing New Build and Private Housing Repair, Maintenance, and Improvement (RM&I).

The CPA forecasts construction output to fall by 7.0% in 2023 before recovering slowly in 2024 with growth of just 0.7%, according to its Summer Forecasts.

With a flatlining UK economy, falling real wages, and mortgage rates now expected to continue rising over the next six months, households are likely to endure a difficult year and the demand for both new housing and improvements works will be hit hard.

Private housing output is worth £41 billion per year to the UK economy and is forecast to be the worst-affected construction sector in 2023. In this sector, activity was already forecast to fall due to the lagged impacts of the government’s calamitous Mini Budget and the resultant spike in mortgage rates last year, which led to a 30-40% fall in demand in 2022 Q4.

Private housing RM&I is worth £29 billion each year to the UK economy and activity reached historic highs between 2020 and early 2022 due to increased working from home and a ‘race for space’. Since March 2022, however, activity has been falling due to persistent inflation, rising interest and mortgage rates, and falling real wages.

CPA Economics Director, Professor Noble Francis said: “More than half of construction activity is provided by the three largest sectors: private housing new build, private housing repair, maintenance and improvement (RM&I) and infrastructure.

“The government’s previously stated ambitions - building 300,000 net additional homes per year, investing £600 billion in an infrastructure pipeline, delivering Levelling Up, and transitioning to Net Zero - all sound like hollow soundbites now given its lack of commitment and investment.

“It is essential that government uses its Autumn Statement later this year to invest in UK construction – an industry which employs more than three million people across its supply chain and provides the homes and infrastructure that are so vital for the country’s near-term needs and long-term productivity growth.”

Paul Groves Group Editor paul.groves@tspmedia.co.uk

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Truss rafters and "cold pitched roofs" have long been standard practice in mainstream UK housing. But is this large, unheated, and largely unused space the best use of our roofs?

The A. Proctor Group discuss the alternatives to this type of construction and explore the benefits of warm roofs and insulated panels in creating dwellings that are both energy and space efficient.

Read more on page 16-17

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