2021 |
Edition 1 |
Volume 2
Distribution Outlook
Growth Rally in Distribution The COVID vaccine is here. And the pandemic has accelerated digital transformation like nothing before. What do Distributors except from the first half of 2021?
>> Are the roaring twenties back? << A short recap of 2020 Everyone of us has been confronted with countless articles, news, shows and debates on how hard COVID-19 hit mankind, and the global economy. At Electronics-Update we like to look ahead, rather than behind us.. Nevertheless, it‘s important to keep historic economic data in mind. So here‘s a short review of the most important facts and figures on 2020. A great source of information on economic data is the International Monetary Fund (IMF). And as far as 2020 is concerned, also a mood indicator. In January, the IMF predicted a global economic growth of 3.3% - in the Western World, COVID has been noted, but wasn‘t taken all too seriously. That mood changed rapidly, and in April, when the virus overran Europe, and lockdowns were in full effect, the projections have been changed and stated a decline of the global economy of about3%. Even worse in June, where a decline of 4.9% was estimated. In comparison, the Spanish Flu is said to have set back global economy by 6 to 8% in the 1920s. The most recent report of the IMF states a decline of the global economy of 4.4% in 2020, the World Bank calculates a decline of 4.3%. What about 2021? The introduction of several types of vaccines has certainly helped to brighten up the mood for the global economy. Deloitte asks „Are the roaring twenties coming back?“ And they might not be too far off with that comparison. The 1920s are considered to be a time of great economic growth after World War I. The United States saw a growth in GDP of around 4.7% during that time.
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As for 2021, there are estimations that point into the same direction: The IMF expects a staggering 5.1% global economic growth. PWC agrees and predicts 5% growth. The World Bank is a bit more conservative with a projected growth of 4%. And the OECD is expecting a plus of 4.2%. What about the electronics industry? COVID and the wide-spread lockdown policies have limited production capacities all around the world. The electronics industry is no exception here. As production is ramped up almost everywhere, demand of certain electronic components has surpassed supply. Global semiconductor revenue for example, is expected to grow 7% this year, according to SEMI. A prime example for supply issues is the automotive industry. Several automobile manufacturers, such as Honda, Ford, Mercedes-Benz needed to limit production, due to the shortage of semiconductor components. We see the same effect for certain passive components in the market, such as Multi Layer Ceramic Capacitors. These currently occuring demand and supply chain issues are expected to accompany us until second quarter of 2021. Distributors of electronic components play an important role in this constellation. So we asked some of the key players, what they expect for 2021, and present you the results in this report.
Of course, Electronics-Update will continue to be your prime source of information in 2021. We are very much looking forward to the upcoming time, and wish you a healthy and succesful year!
>> From a TTI perspective we have seen a market share gain <<
Geoff Breed, Vice President Marketing, TTI Europe has been with the company for 21 years. He has held various roles in Sales & Marketing and currently oversees all Marketing activities inc Product, Asset, Supplier & Vertical Market Management plus the outside Technical resources and Marcoms.
Previously Geoff was at Arrow where he held Product Management roles in their I,P & E departments.
Last year we wanted to know your estimations on how the electronics industry will perform in the second half of 2020. Have your expectations been met? 2020 has been far from a normal year. Probably the most “un-normal” any of us have encountered so trying to judge results vs expectations we set last year, or even from Q1 this year is difficult. Personally I think we must judge performance based on sequential business development, month on month, as we have progressed through 2020. From this standpoint we have seen business improve as we moved out of the summer period and into Q4. So overall the electronics industry for 2020 will be suppressed, but, from a TTI perspective we have seen a market share gain which in any market condition is a positive sign. The medical electronics market has been stated as a promising driver of business in 2020. What do you think will be the most interesting industries in 2021? Medical has seen positive growth in 2020 but has mainly been driven by specific ventilator builds. These builds generally won’t repeat in 2021 so although there could be other medical applications that increase there will also be a gap to fill.
New applications relating to Covid test devices, temperature sensing equipment etc will all come on line though. I think other industries will have a bigger role to play such as Electric vehicle, Hybrid applications and Smart buildings for example. Are you planning new Franchise Lines this year? If so, why did you choose these? TTI have always had a very focused approach to its Linecard and we won’t be changing that philosophy. Signing new lines is something we discuss long and hard and don’t take lightly. The TTI model revolves around a true distribution model which means we have to be able to give our supplier partners complete focus, attention and drive. Any new suppliers we consider and partner with will have to complement our existing Linecard and product portfolios and add incremental value to our customer base and vertical market strategies. What product categories will be your focus this year, and why? To be blunt, all of them! It’s key we provide a full support for all our customers’ requirements, both fulfillment and project design, but also as a partner for our suppliers we must promote and drive their full product portfolios.
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>> Electronics will play a big part in making the world COVID safe <<
Steve Rawlins, CEO of Anglia Components joined the field sales team at Anglia in 1976 at the time the company was beginning to establish itself as a recognised and fast growing distributor. Steve was promoted to Sales Manager in 1983, and in the following year to the position of Sales Director.
As the company continued its expansion into the industrial segment of the electronics industry, he was made Managing Director in 1997, Group Managing Director in 2003 and Chief Executive Officer in 2006.
Last year we wanted to know your estimations on how the electronics industry will perform in the second half of 2020. Have your expectations been met? As 2020 draws to a close, the big markets for electronic components seem to be recovering. Automotive electronics is now at about 90% of pre-lockdown levels, 5G is ramping up and medical / healthcare related markets as you would expect are growing strongly. In an uncertain economy, customers spent much of the year burning through any inventory that they have built up and we are already starting to see demand growing as they replenish. The medical electronics market has been stated as a promising driver of business in 2020. What do you think will be the most interesting industries in 2021? Some of the high volume users of components in the automotive and consumer electronics sectors are escalating quickly now. New consoles are coming up and demand for 5G is kicking in.
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We expect to see lead times lengthening in 2021 and it may even be a boom year. Are you planning new Franchise Lines this year? If so, why did you choose these? We are always developing new lines to ensure that we offer customers a truly comprehensive solution, and to stay abreast of new technologies and markets as they become mainstream. There are four or five new lines where we are currently building a stock profile â&#x20AC;&#x201C; look out for announcements later this year and early next. What product categories will be your focus this year, and why? Electronics will play a big part in making the world COVID safe. We all want to go back not only to schools and offices but also to sports stadiums, theatres, and night clubs. This will mean a need for technologies that enable social distancing, technologies that eliminate touch and technologies that de-risk by sterilising and cleaning.
What will be your geological focus regions this year, and why? We distribute to companies in the UK and Ireland. Is there any advice you want to share with our readers on business practice in 2021? As a privately owned business, we are able to take the long term view. The market will recover, and we’ve kept our dedicated team together to put us in a strong position when it does. During the whole of lockdown, our software team has continued to develop new services for Anglia Live. We’ll be announcing the fruits of this effort at the start of next year – and some of these new enhancements will be industry firsts.
An off the board question: Do you have a favourite product category? Something that’s really interesting to you personally (e.g. sensors, displays, switches, resistors)? Many forward thinking suppliers are offering complex technologies in a package that can be used right out of the box often even with a proven reference design. Great examples include the Thales Intelligent Cloud Connect LTE Terminal, the world’s first plug and play IoT solution that automatically connects with AWS. Another is the Omron Human Vision Component that takes all the complexity out of face and body recognition.
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>> various raw material shortages are leading to tight supply, extended lead times and increased pricing << Behzad Monfared, Director of Sales, EMEA. Behzad joined Fusion Worldwide in 2010 as an Account Manager. He was named Rookie of the Year in 2011 and has steadily moved up; first as team leader and currently as the sales manager. Behzad has prior experience as an account manager at Dell. He holds a Bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree in Sales and Marketing.
Last year we wanted to know your estimations on how the electronics industry will perform in the second half of 2020. Have your expectations been met? In 2020, we predicted that demand for computing and consumer electronics would remain high as people continued to work and attend school from home. This continues to remain the case as consumer electronics is still seeing steady growth. Further, we predicted that the automotive sector would rebound after being hit hard in the first half of 2020. While it occurred earlier than expected and started its recovery in the Fall with demand for electric vehicles slowly growing, there is now a full-blown semiconductor shortage that has caused line shutdowns globally in auto plants. The medical electronics market has been stated as a promising driver of business in 2020. What do you think will be the most interesting industries in 2021? There are numerous market segments that will experience growth throughout the year, including the rollout of 5G, the rebound of the automotive
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sector, an increased need for datacenters and increasing reliance on AI and IoT by companies. The automotive industry, specifically, will have a big turnaround this year. Though automotive demand took a big hit in early 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it is now recovering and is forecasted to have strong growth in the second half of this year. We are already seeing shortages affect production in the automobile industry as demand continues to grow. Other markets expected to continue growing in 2021 include the data mining industry and gaming industry. Ongoing demand in these industries will likely lead to increased demand for graphics cards, though this growth may be impeded by yield issues for Nvidia chips. currently building a stock profile â&#x20AC;&#x201C; look out for announcements later this year and early next. Are you planning new Franchise Lines this year? If so, why did you choose these? At Fusion Worldwide, we are a sourcing distributor. While we hold inventory, we rely on a vast global supplier network that allows us to quickly locate and supply product that would be difficult to obtain through traditional distribution methods.
What product categories will be your focus this year, and why? At Fusion Worldwide, we have dedicated teams looking at market trends so we can help our customers stay ahead of them. Thus, the product categories we focus on are those that are causing, or could cause, customers’ supply chains to be disrupted. The challenge for us in the next year will be focusing on certain categories. The number of shortages that we’re currently seeing at the outset of the year are so broad-based in nature that focusing on any particular category is very difficult. There aren’t many product categories that aren’t experiencing some sort of supply disruption or constraint. Geopolitical concerns and limited raw material supplies, as well as manufacturing capacity constraints are combining to create a very expansive, virtually all-encompassing supply chain dynamic that will affect products from passives through high-dollar ICs and CPU.
In order to lessen the impact of these shortages, it is important to align yourself with a variety of trustworthy suppliers, including independent distributors. We also advise that companies avoid single sourcing, geographically diversify their supply chain, develop contingency plans and dive into market intelligence to name a few. By working with the right suppliers, companies can utilize them as a resource to strengthen supply chains and stay ahead of market happenings. Fusion Worldwide, for instance, not only provides the public with a monthly market intelligence report called The Greensheet but also provides useful resources, such as our eBook, Build a Resilient Supply Chain.
What will be your geological focus regions this year, and why? Over the past several years, Fusion Worldwide has continued to expand its global footprint and maintain consistent growth into new markets, and 2021 will be no exception. We believe the Asian market will be a big driver as we emerge from the pandemic. While we have had a strong presence in this region, we are continuing to increase our footprint by establishing a new warehouse in Singapore, expanding our warehouse in Hong Kong and through the expansion of our sales and buying teams in Shenzhen, Korea and Taiwan. We also expect increased activity in Mexico and the US, and in turn have expanded our presence in both these countries. Is there any advice you want to share with our readers on business practice in 2021? Though there is rising demand from growing industries, various raw material shortages are leading to tight supply, extended lead times and increased pricing for many manufacturers and on a variety of components. This doesn’t appear to have an end date in sight and is only thought to get worse throughout 2021.
An off the board question: Do you have a favourite product category? Something that’s really interesting to you personally (e.g. sensors, displays, switches, resistors)? For us, the excitement comes when we’re able to help solve supply chain issues customers are facing – or prevent them. The components associated with a particular disruption are the favorite at that time.
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>> We will continue to see wireless modules and discrete solutions take off << Jim Ricciardelli, Executive Vice President, Digital Business, has been instrumental in developing and executing ecommerce sales and digital marketing strategies at Digi-Key electronics for nearly four years with a unique combination of deep B2C Internet experience and B2B multi-channel experience. Jim leads the sales and marketing organizations at Digi-Key and is responsible for digital strategy development and execution, building and leveraging strategic alliances as well as recruiting, hiring, and leading world-class talent.
Last year we wanted to know your estimations on how the electronics industry will perform in the second half of 2020. Have your expectations been met?
The short answer is absolutely. Our expectations have been met, and perhaps exceeded. Quite frankly, after the very strange first half of the year while COVID-19 circulated around the globe and impacted business at different times in each region, going into the second half of the year was a bit of a question mark. Fortunately for Digi-Key and our customers we were very focused on the two things that were in our control: employee health/safety and customer value. We were fast to implement COVID-19 protocols to protect our employees. This enabled us to keep our global Product Distribution Center in Thief River Falls, Minnesota fully operational throughout the pandemic to continue meeting our customer same day shipment commitment. We also were aggressive in positioning our inventory as we wanted to protect our customers from any supply chain disruptions.
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As it turned out, starting in late June, business demand increased significantly, and we were well positioned to support our customers. While the European market was down 80% in 2020 through Q3, Digi-Key was actually up 16%, a difference of 24% better than the market. The medical electronics market has been stated as a promising driver of business in 2020. What do you think will be the most interesting industries in 2021?
Certainly, medical will still be a focus as we are not out of the pandemic yet and as the population ages. I think auxiliary types of applications like our LoRa-based contact tracing systems can really help organizations deal with our current reality. Those are short term. For the rest of 2021 I imagine more autonomous activities will start to come into play. This goes well beyond automotive as things like the autonomous farm we have been talking about and more commercial drone applications will rise. With all that said, there is no stopping IoT.
Are you planning new Franchise Lines this year? If so, why did you choose these? We added more than 70 core supplier partners through the first three quarters of 2020, and we expect that pace to continue in 2021. Some recent technologies worth highlighting include: first-class software internet test and measurement products (NI, formerly National Instruments), SUV/ agricultural equipment and also military and aerospace products (Sumitomo), numerous IoT devices and software platforms (Espressif Systems), telecommunications equipment and industrial and aircraft devices (SMD Diode Solutions), GaN technology devices (EPC), along with edge computing, cellular and wireless devices and ESD technologies. We will continue to add franchised lines in all these emerging technologies as we continue to fill any potential gaps in the innovation needs of our customers. What product categories will be your focus this year, and why?
I should also mention the adoption of rapid prototyping products like Arduino, Raspberry Pi, Adafruit Feather, SparkFun Micromod and others will continue to allow that spark of creativity to dominate the landscape. We have great coverage on semiconductors, passives and electromechanical products. We still have room to fill out on harsh environment products, test and measurement, photonics, board products and more. What will be your geographical focus regions this year, and why? The circulation of COVID-19 around the globe certainly caused our industry to have regional fluctuations. Our centralized model was well positioned to support all regions of the world with same day shipment as demand fluctuated. Our digital platform and the intelligence from our global support teams in the Americas, Asia, and Europe did a great job of keeping us one step ahead of the fluctuating pandemic and business cycles. The economies of scale and efficiency of our business model ultimately serves the entire world very effectively.
The growth in IoT continues as new technologies are bringing innovative solutions to real world problems. We will continue to see wireless modules and discrete solutions take off. Bluetooth 5.0, LoRa, 5G and NB-IoT will drive a lot of migration to these newer technologies. Above all the digital interface to the analog world will continue to grow with sensor technologies from companies like Acconeer with pulsed coherent radar, Fingerprints biometric solutions and Neonode infrared touch sensors will continue to enable IoT solutions in new and exciting ways. Obviously other analog and power solutions will continue to grow.
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Is there any advice you want to share with our readers on business practice in 2021? In addition to focusing on our employee health and safety and customer value during this difficult pandemic, we remain very committed to our investments in our digital eCommerce platform. COVID-19 has accelerated digital transformation in many areas of our lives. At Digi-Key we have major investments in place in our search engine and websites, our digital Marketplace platform, and our new 2.2 million square foot automated warehouse, as well as automating many of our internal workflow processes such a quoting and pricing. Despite the weight of added costs related to COVID, we have stayed true to our investments instead of slowing them down during this difficult time. In fact, we accelerated many investment developments so we can continue to innovate and provide our customers and suppliers with an incredible digital experience.
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An off the board question: Do you have a favourite product category? Something thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s really interesting to you personally (e.g. sensors, displays, switches, resistors)? Several areas we really love... RF/wireless and sensors. Both are being heavily adopted because of the growth in IoT connectivity but we are at some inflection points and to me the innovation around 5G, NB-IoT and sensor products are at that forefront of innovation. Also, robotics and collaborative robots.
>> The last year has shown how fragile the global supply chain can be <<
Iris Reck, Global Head of Supplier and Product Management for Semiconductors at RS Components.
Last year we wanted to know your estimations on how the electronics industry will perform in the second half of 2020. Have your expectations been met? 2020 turned out to be very different from anyoneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s expectation. I am proud to say that RS and the whole Electrocomponents Group have shown their strength and resilience during this time, and our trading performance and market share continued to improve. The second half of 2020 we have seen continuous improvement of the market and we finished the calendar year on a very positive note. While it is hard to predict how the situation will evolve , we are confident that we are set up to let this positive trend continue. The medical electronics market has been stated as a promising driver of business in 2020. What do you think will be the most interesting industries in 2021? There are a lot of growth technologies which will drive the market in the coming years. We are supporting the needs of Design Engineers in all areas of our customer base and see industrial
automation, IIoT/AI, and wireless as key sectors, next to a continuously strong medical / healthcare market. Our design platform DesignSpark now has more than a million members, which shows that despite COVID the design activity is still strong in the market. With our full offering including OKdo and the industrial product we are well set up to support our customers. Are you planning new Franchise Lines this year? If so, why did you choose these? We are constantly expanding our line card, in the last quarter of 2020 alone we extended our cooperation with big players like STMicro and Infineon and also added some great suppliers in the wireless, sensor and Passives area. In total as Electrocomponents Group we signed 72 new suppliers in 2020, and with our clear focus on solutions there still is a long list of lines which we are looking at to ensure we always offer the latest and most relevant technologies to our customer base. to create a very expansive, virtually all-encompassing supply chain dynamic that will affect products from passives through high-dollar ICs and CPU.
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What product categories will be your focus this year, and why? We support all areas of innovation and design in our customer base, and that is reflected by the growing user community on our DesignSpark platform, which now has over one million members. We see industrial automation, IIoT/AI, and wireless (with the growth of sensors) as key sectors, with all of these being growth areas. Our strong product offering from all our leading suppliers, which are very focused on the latest developments of technology trends, is supporting these solutions. Is there any advice you want to share with our readers on business practice in 2021? The last year has shown how fragile the global supply chain can be, and it made existing shortfalls more obvious, like the ones presented by single -source designs or extreme lean manufacturing. However, there can be positives taken from these events, if companies manage to balance these needs with higher security of supply.
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Also, from the point of view of a digital business, the pandemic has shown and accelerated the change in our market to a much more digitalized offer. As one of the leading companies we will be able to support our customers on this journey to a more future-orientated and resilient business model. An off the board question: Do you have a favourite product category? Something thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s really interesting to you personally (e.g. sensors, displays, switches, resistors)? For me personally it is more about the solution than the single product category. Only together do they create something of value, something that could change the way we live forever. So for example I am very excited about the new developments in the IoT and AI area as these will influence our lives in a lot of ways, and I think we can hardly imagine all the things that will be happening in coming years. A lot of product areas and suppliers are involved in these, and they all play their part in the final solution.
>> Planning is going to be crucial to guarantee supply of product throughout 2021 and beyond << Stephen Morris, head of the EMEA region at Rochester Electronics. Responsible for all elements of international sales, operations, human resources, and marketing in the region, he has been instrumental in driving and growing the EMEA business successfully in the last 5 years. With over 20 years in the semiconductor industry, Stephen has experience within global manufacturing organisations, pan-European distribution, and OEM technology-based start-ups. Stephen holds a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree in Electronics from the University of Strathclyde.
Last year we wanted to know your estimations on how the electronics industry will perform in the second half of 2020. Have your expectations been met? Like everyone else, we were kind of expecting some level of normalcy to be restored by second half of last year. But COVID-19 put paid to that, and everything has been disrupted much longer than we hoped. This also has had an impact on the market, and we started to see demand for semiconductors over exceed production capacity which resulted on lead-times being pushed out and the inevitable shortage of components. I would not have necessarily said in the first half of 2020 that this was predicted but we did know that if COVID-19 continued to influence the business the way it had in early 2020 then supply would certainly start to tighten up. From a Rochester perspective, the whole of 2020 was very busy. The nature of our business lends itself to supporting customers when they are impacted by lead-time issues or when semiconductor product become end of life and no longer available. Therefore, in such a tight and unpredictable market, customers call on us to facilitate their business needs
to ensure continuity of supply keeping their production lines moving and their end customers happy. We are expecting this trend to continue into at least the first two quarters of 2021where demand will continue to outstrip supply. The medical electronics market has been stated as a promising driver of business in 2020. What do you think will be the most interesting industries in 2021? Certainly, the Medical sector had positive influence over many businesses in 2020 including the medicines processing and development market. COVID-19 saw businesses coming together to support the cause and Rochester was no exception. The nature of our business is supporting long term supply and not necessarily cutting- or leading-edge technology but as semiconductor companies exit from old technology to make way for the new, we can continue to support the longer term needs of customerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s platforms, even beyond the natural life of the product.
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We are seeing the semiconductor industry delving into the Electric Vehicle, battery and charging infrastructure and therefore a strong growth in power control semiconductors. Huge investments are being made to evolve EV platforms at a scalable level allowing easy affordable adoption by the consumer. This means that new technology and systems are required and therefore new semiconductors need to be designed and manufactured to support the need. Something must give and typically the old technology and less efficient production lines get phased out and inevitably pushed to End-Of-Life.
We intend to focus on providing really long-term support (including the ongoing production) of core heart-beat components such as Microprocessors and Memory products. These products are the most difficult to re-design and re-qualify. Markets such as Industrial, Aerospace, Medical, Transport, and Energy all require long-term support. We provide AUTHORISED supply after formal semiconductor End-Of-Life’s; in some cases for 20+ years.
Are you planning new Franchise Lines this year? If so, why did you choose these?
What will be your geological focus regions this year, and why?
We have franchise partnerships currently with over 75 semiconductor suppliers and we are always on the look-out for complimentary lines that can utilise our business model in supporting them and their customers’ needs. There will be significant new lines to come this year which is hugely exciting for us as it enables Rochester to offer new solutions to customers that previously we couldn’t fulfil. It is important that the franchise relationship is not just a trading deal but also a close partnership with the supplier allowing Rochester to add strong value to the semiconductor supply chain with its unique business model. We are here to support when supply tightens and also when the needs of customers go beyond the standard life cycle of semiconductor components. We see ourselves as a completely transparent arm of our suppliers with a relationship and trust which enables us to continue to supply to customers seamlessly.
2020 was a geographical growth year for Rochester with the creation of our French entity out of Toulouse serving the Southern European countries in EMEA. Our approach is very much about local people, local language serving local customers, something that has had a very warm positive reception. We will continue along this theme as we look to continue our expansion into Eastern Europe where we will likely create an entity in Poland with local people serving the Eastern European countries. We have strong links into the contract manufacturing business in Eastern Europe and this would help us to serve those customers better.
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What product categories will be your focus this year, and why?
We don’t have one specific focus region, the plan is for us to continue to grow in all regions together resulting in us having four strong regional business units across EMEA driving the Southern Europe, DACH, Eastern Europe and Northern Europe territories.
Is there any advice you want to share with our readers on business practice in 2021? Customers and suppliers are going to need support more than ever in 2021. We see that lead-times are lengthening, and customer demand is strong. How this may change longer term as we go through 2021 is not as clear. It is clear however that planning is going to be crucial to guarantee supply of product throughout 2021 and beyond. With so many companies hungry for product you need to secure your supply to enable your business to keep moving, serving your customers. Careful navigation around sourcing of semiconductor products is becoming more crucial to avoid counterfeit and non-genuine product that finds itself seeping into the broader market when times are tight.
An off the board question: Do you have a favourite product category? Something thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s really interesting to you personally (e.g. sensors, displays, switches, resistors)? I have a genuine interest in the microcontroller/microprocessor products as this is where I started my career at Motorola. The advancement of these products over the past 20 years has been amazing and they are the heart of almost every electronic system no matter how simple or complex. As we move forward in areas such as artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles it will be amazing to see what the next 20 years brings!
Think ahead and forecast. Buy only genuine stock from approved stockist and call upon the services of expert businesses like Rochester who can support and lead your business securely utilising its four decades of experience.
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