Technical analysis report for GBPCHF Prepared on December 01,
This report will be updated on the new events in the market, but as a base for the updates I will discuss current situation. I always start analysing market using weekly chart to see bigger picture. Since that spike from the 1.1470 market was constantly rising and first monthly resistance was set at 1.4449. Small drop to 1.3809 and nest monthly resistance we can find at 1.5486. There was few weekly resistances and supports on the way up. Price started to go down from 1.5486 and this drop was stopped in the place where red trend line had some small damage. But that was some false break and after that price still continues to go to the down side. If price will go below previous support 1.4821 (weekly support) red line should be redrawn. Blue rising line is already broken and continuation to the down side is expected. And one more important fact on this chart: weekly support 1.4821 matches weekly ex-resistance and we have not had lower low on the weekly chart.
Daily chart keeps posting lower highs – 1.5249 and 1.5148 and lower lows – 1.4992 and 1.4821. Clearly market is in down trend and there are no signs of the bulls on the horizon. Market can easy (and should, if bears are dominating) go below support 1.4821 and next targets would be 1.4720 for the daily chart and 1.4483 for the weekly chart. It is important for the trader to keep his or hers mind open. What looks good in the market right now can easy become complete confusion later. So, let’s take a look from the other side. We know that market is on the weekly ex-resistance and has been already tested once and this is second attempt to break it. What if it will fail? What signs should we look for? Daily swing down from the resistance 1.5148 had a short term projected move to the 1.4825 level as a target. And this target is on the daily/weekly support level and as we know that level is weekly ex-resistance level as well. Intraday structure of the daily swing down suggests that at the level 1.4825 price should pause a bit or possible revers intraday move to the up side. This is just a warning, because intraday fluctuations do not last long, but on the other side it can be beginning of the something what could last very long time. Price above 1.4950 would confirm support level as strong and would suggest move up at least to the resistance level 1.5148. So, most important sign for the bulls would be price going above 1.4950. Below that market remains negative.
Now let’s take a close look at the market. Intraday fluctuations keep posting lower highs and lower lows as well and remain as a bear market. What if price will go above short term red line? Despite new low 1.4825, I would actually read those intraday swings as consolidation between 1.4941 and 1.4838. An as you know, going above 1.4950 would indicate that market bounced of the important support level and move to the up side can last till 1.5148.
I wrote this report with the task to show how is important to keep open mind and accept market as it is, follow it, look for the signs of changes and go with those changes. While we are not in the market we have endless opportunities to take any decision we want. Once we took the decision, we must follow the market and until market acts as we expected. Once changes in the market appeared on the chart, we must change our views as well. It is not healthy to stuck with your own views and ignore what market is talking about. As I have mentioned at the beginning, this report will be updated frequently and all updates will below this report. I wish you all best trading experiences.