Population and Development in the Philippines Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas
Learning from reliable studies on population and development Nobel Laureates
Gary Becker and Simon Kuznets; and Resource Economist Julian
Simon: “There is no statistical evidence of a negative connection between population increase and economic growth.�
Learning from reliable studies on population and development Ross Levine and David Renelt, 1992 119 countries over 30 years No correlation between population growth and economic development Economic growth is highly correlated with secondary school enrolment
Learning from reliable studies on population and development Dr. Mahbub ul Haq: Father of Human Development Index and former Prime Minister of Planning and Finance in Pakistan
Regretted spending resources on population control to no effect “If we could start again, I would invest almost everything in literacy for women.�
Learning from reliable studies on population and development Dr. Robert Barro, 1991 Study of 98 countries for 30 years Growth rate of real per capita GDP is positively related to school enrolment rates. Countries with higher human capital also have lower fertility rates.
Learning from reliable studies on population and development The World Bank, The East Asian Miracle The economic success of 8 East Asian countries (excluding the Philippines) were attributed to: political stability; macroeconomic stability; a focus on early education; an accent on agricultural development; the establishment of a sound financial system; openness to foreign ideas and technology; and marketoriented economic policies. No mention of birth control.
Mass Poverty is the Biggest Scandal of the Philippines More than 30% of the population live below the poverty line The highest in the East Asian region with the exception of Vietnam
The Roots of Philippine Mass Poverty Errors in economic policy
Inward looking industrialization Neglect of export promotion Underdeveloped agriculture sector Lack of infrastructures
Poor governance: loss of P200 billion annually through tax evasion Corruption: loss of P200 billion through misappropriation of funds
Addressing the Roots of Poverty o Respect for market forces through deregulation, liberalization, and privatization o Focus on infrastructure development especially in the countryside o Assisting small and medium scale enterprises as well as small farms o Improve quality of basic education o Improve governance in both public and private sectors
Growing Population: Cause of Poverty
Population explosion: Crisis? Expanding markets and abundant manpower: opportunity
The Emerging Markets: All Large Populations
The Demographic Gift A unique stage in the demographic cycle of a country Labor force increases faster than dependent population Lasted for five decades in East Asian economies Happens only once Strategic Thinking: Dynamic Not Static Leads to Depopulation and Aging Dangers of Manipulating Nature: especially Human Nature
Philippine Total Fertility Rate
7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 1975
1980
1990
Source: National Statistics Office
1995
2000*
2005**
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Growth Rate of Labor Force and Dependents 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50%
Labor Force 15 to 64 age group
3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00%
Dependents 0 to 14 &
0.50%
65 and over age group
0.00% 1975
1980
1990
1995
2000*
2005**
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Lessons from Population Density East Asia Population Density and Per Capita Income Per Capita Gross Population National Income per sq. km.* (US$)** Southeast Asia Indonesia 111 810 Malaysia 74 3,880 Philippines 255 1,081 Singapore 7,223 21,230 Thailand 123 2,190 Northeast Asia China 134 1,100 Hong Kong 6,501 25,860 Korea, Rep. of 483 12,030 Taiwan 625 13,140 Others India 321 540 Source: ADB Key Indicators 2005 *as of June 2002; **as of 2003
Maximum Philippine Population 2025 - Start of zero population growth Population will peak at 111 million Maximum population density in 2025: 370 Much lower than: Singapore
7,223
Hong Kong
6, 501
Taiwan
625
South Korea
483
Population Density by Philippine Regions Region National Capital Region Cordillera Admn. Region Region I - Ilocos Region II - Cagayan Valley Region III - Central Luzon Region IV - Southern Tagalog Region V - Bicol Region VI - Western Visayas Region VII - Central Visayas Region VIII - Eastern Visayas Region IX - Western Mindanao Region X - Northern Mindanao Region XI - Western Mindanao Region XII - Central Mindanao Autonomous Region in Muslim Caraga National
Population Per Capita Income (Pesos) per sq. km. at constant prices 15,617 32,219 95 18,818 327 7,658 105 8,319 441 11,719 251 13,807 265 6,412 307 11,988 381 13,137 173 6,708 193 9,182 196 14,467 263 12,351 179 10,639 Mindanao 211 4,111 111 6,942 255 15,713
Source of raw data: NSO Note: Population data - as of 2000; Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) data used - as of 2002
Making Human Resources Productive Infrastructural support to small farmers Physical infrastructure Technical training ( e.g. Family Farm Schools) Microcredit Cooperative development Conducive corporate culture (e.g. Motorola) Improve the teaching of English at all school levels Industrial skills training (e.g. Dualtech and Pilipinas Shell) Market-oriented vocational / technical schools Strong liberal arts foundation of professional courses
Population and Development in the Philippines Thank you