Florida & Metro Forecast December 2010 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast 2010-2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published December 2010

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global

Many lists come out this time of year. Examples include lists of the biggest news events, the best movies, or the best sporting highlights of 2010. Of all the lists out there, the one I dread the most is compiling a list of New Year’s resolutions! Each year at this time, thousands of Floridians promise to break a bad habit, exercise more, or set financial goals. Others vow to go back to school or spend more time with family. Yes indeed, this is the time of year when we reflect upon the past 12 months, but focus on the future. As we focus on the future, we realize that our state will experience a big political change in 2011. Governor Charlie Crist is leaving office and will be replaced by Rick Scott. Much like the citizens who elected him, Scott has made plenty of his own resolutions. During his campaign, he promised to turn our state around if elected. As we know, that will be quite a task. Our state has been slow to recover from the recession.

c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration

I wish the best of luck to all of you who have set goals and plan to make some changes in 2011. This is especially true for Rick Scott. I hope he is able to fulfill all his campaign promises. His website declares, “Florida is Open for Business!” Let’s hope he’s right!

a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

Happy New Year to all (and I’ll see you at the gym)!

n Thomas L . Keo Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r e c a s t 2010 - 2013 December 2010 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Cecilia Chirinos, Researcher Jessica Fears, Researcher Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-11 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17

Tab l e o f c o n te n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26 Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach............... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89

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H i g h l i g ht s o f the Dece m be r F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 3 • Turn off all portable electronic devices; the cabin door has been closed. Flight attendants; please prepare Florida for takeoff. 2011 is the runway and in 2012 the economy should be airborne and gaining altitude. • Payroll employment growth in Florida remains as satisfying as an airline-sized pack of peanuts. • Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 1.9% in 2011, 3.3% in 2012, and 3.9% in 2013. It will be the 1st quarter of 2014 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • The labor market is more than fashionably late to Florida’s economic recovery. Unemployment will remain stubbornly high and will not fall below 10% until the 1st quarter of 2013. • Unemployment rates could drift higher as the economy transitions into job growth mode in the latter half of 2010. 2011 should mark the beginning of a long, slow, and steady decline in unemployment. The emphasis is still on slow - it may be 2020 before we see unemployment fall below 6% again. • The sectors forecasted to have the strongest growth during 2010-2013 are Professional and Business Services (7.5%); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (2.6%); Education and Health Services (2.6%); Manufacturing (0.9%) and Leisure & Hospitality (0.9%). • Florida’s housing construction sector bottomed out in 2009 after a harrowing plunge. Housing starts will climb even more slowly than was expected as of last quarter’s forecast. Total starts, at an annual rate, will waver between 44,000 to 50,000 through mid-2011. After that a long, slow climb will commence. There will be no V-shaped recovery for housing in Florida. • After two years of contracting, Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 3.0% in 2010, 2.6% in 2011, then accelerate to 4.0% in 2012, and reach 4.8% in 2013. • Real personal income growth will turn positive in 2010. From 2011-2013, personal income growth will average 3.3%, and will peak at 4.4% in 2013. • Florida’s population growth is just a fraction of the glory days. Bruce Springsteen was right - they passed Florida by in the wink of an eye, a retiree’s eye. • After a wobbly start to 2010, retail sales should finish stronger for the year. Retail sales will accelerate in 2011 and 2012, and will grow at an average pace of 5.7% during 20112013. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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‘Twas the Forecast Before Christmas ‘Twas the forecast before Christmas and all through the state, Those wishing for a booming economy would still have to wait. Foreclosure signs were hung in the yard with great care, In the hopes that a buyer soon would be there. Across the state Floridians are snug in their beds, Over half with a mortgage that’s over their heads. More buyers would make homeowners elate, Yet, that’s not likely to happen given the unemployment rate. Florida’s long recession ended at the start of the year, But a tattered labor market removed all the cheer. Down in South FL where many hurricanes do spin, They’ve got lots of cheap condos, but no one to move in. On the panhandle, folks must be very naughty you see, They got lots of black lumps. Not From Santa - but BP. On the Space Coast, they are sadly counting the days To the final flight of America’s space sleigh. In Jacksonville their Christmas aspirations aren’t daft, They are dreaming of a port with a Panamax draft. Smaller government? Yes, we need one in D.C. In the sunshine state we must have one that’s smarter you see. One to invest, diversify and help the state grow, But that requires revenues dontcha know. A supply-side chorus in Tallahassee has started to sing, Once our corporate taxes are cut, look out Wyoming! I in my Steelers cap forecasting away, Looking forward to Florida’s much better day. On the pages that follow into the forecast we delve, An improved 2011 and a much better 2012 Before I conclude, I would be quite remiss Not to add one more thing to my Christmas wish list. Santa I don’t mean to hound or cajole, But could you please let the Knights win the Liberty Bowl?

Happy and Healthy Holidays from the Institute for Economic Competitiveness! 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

Flor i daâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s H o u s i n g Mar k et: Another day in Paradise/Purgatory Floridaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s spell in housing hell continues. I should actually say housing purgatory, since the housing market will not be in this state for eternity, but some may argue that it may feel like it.

Foreclosures continue to be a problem, though recently released statistics that show a plunge in foreclosure activity might give one the false hope that the problem is fading. This plunge in foreclosure activity was a function of the moratorium that some banks imposed as they sorted through the robo-signing issue. This was a temporary slowing of an unfortunate, but necessary, part of the housing cycle. Nearly half of Floridians are underwater on their mortgages - one in two mortgage holders in Florida owe more in mortgage debt than their home is worth. For these homeowners the house is no longer a net asset, a source of wealth they could count on in retirement or draw upon via home equity borrowing. Their home is now a net liability - a hole in their balance sheet that homeowners must attempt to patch via higher saving. Higher rates of saving translate into lower levels of spending and this is another channel through which the housing market continues to be a drag on Floridaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic recovery. Figure 1. Housing Sales FAR Data

Mortgage rates have increased from historical lows, but unfortunately credit is still constrained. Unfortunately, these low rates are not spurring high levels of activity in the housing sector. Sales have continued to substantially decline from their first time home buyers tax credit peaks.

Refinancing to take advantage of these ultra-low mortgage rates is a near impossibility for those who have seen their home values plummet and now find themselves underwater in their mortgage.

High and persistent unemployment, non-existent job growth, and slow population growth, combined with these tight credit conditions, virtually guarantee a prolonged recovery period in the housing sector. These fundamental weaknesses in the underpinnings of housing demand are prolonging the absorption of an inventory that is further swelled by foreclosure. Figures 1 and 2 display monthly data, through October 2010, from the market for single family existing homes as released by the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR). The darker and smoother line in each graph is the 12-month moving average of each of the unadjusted monthly series shown with a lighter and more variable line. Sales (Figure 1) have lost some of the momentum that had built up, as the post-tax credit sales lull. Continued weakness in the economy has led to a Figure 2. Median Housing Prices FAR Data

Florida Florida

Family, Existing Homes Single Family,Single Existing Homes 30000 25000

Single Family,Single Existing Homes Family, Existing Homes $300,000.00

Realtor Sales $250,000.00

Moving Average

20000

Median Sales Price Moving Average

$200,000.00

15000

$150,000.00

10000

$100,000.00

5000

Data Source: Florida Realtors

$50,000.00

Data Source: Florida Realtors

Year

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

two-month decline in the 12-month moving average of sales. This is the first decline of that moving average in over two years. Whether this decline is the start of a new and troublesome trend or just a temporary slowdown after the tax credit pulled future demand to earlier in the year, remains to be seen. Two months does not make a trend – let’s hope the slowdown is not persistent. Median prices (Figure 2) appear to be forming a bottom after their steep decline. How stable this bottom is remains yet to be seen. The still significant inventory coupled with the ongoing foreclosure crisis, ongoing weakness in economic fundamentals, and credit conditions will continue to test the bottom for the near term.

Out lo o k for Florida 2 010-201 3 Florida has pushed back from the gate, taxied to the head of the runway and is preparing for takeoff. Florida’s economy is like a jumbo jet that is still sitting on the tarmac after being grounded for three years following a harrowing emergency landing due to engine problems.

The Florida economy is huge: nearly three quarters of a trillion dollars and the fourth largest economy in the country as of 2009, (behind California, Texas and New York). It has been too long since it has flown the friendly skies of economic prosperity. Florida is poised to take off once again after pushing back from the gate and taxiing to our runway during 2010. The state should be cleared for takeoff and 2011 will be the runway that leads the state on a course to the higher altitudes of economic growth.

The labor market has come to resemble those ever shrinking packets of peanuts that are handed out to passengers as a snack. The paltry number of jobs that the economy is creating barely whets the appetite and leaves us wanting for something far more substantive. This Florida expansion is a longer flight, and in 2012 and 2013 a more generous meal service should begin coming through the cabin and include a healthy 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

portion of jobs. That’s good news as Floridians are famished after the labor market equivalent of a starvation diet.

Oh, and about those engine problems. It turns out that not all the engines could be completely repaired for this flight. The thrust from the population and housing engines are just a fraction of what it has been on previous flights. That means the pilot will have to find thrust in other engines for this trip, and future trips will depend on new or revamped engines to keep this big bird aloft.

G r oss State Pr o d uct Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the state-level analogue to Real GDP, has returned to a growth pattern in 2010. The output of the state stagnated in 2007 and contracted during the two years that followed, with 2009 showing the largest decline of nearly $20 billion.

The economy got back on its feet in 2010, albeit on legs that were still rubbery. 2011 will continue the expansion, but growth will decelerate until confidence in the recovery continues to provide support for the economy and the labor market begins to improve. In 2012, that confidence and labor market recovery will be in place along with more robust growth. The hurdles that Florida’s consumers have to overcome in some cases are substantially higher than other consumers around the nation. These include: depleted, and for 50% of Florida’s mortgage holders, negative, home equity; excessively high unemployment rates; and paltry job creation. This combination delayed Florida’s recovery and will weigh upon it over the next year. However, as 2011 gives way to 2012 the economy will begin to grow more rapidly.

Real GDP growth in 2011 is expected to come in at 2.6% after which growth will accelerate to 4.0% in 2012 and 4.8% in 2013. Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $885 billion in 2013, as Florida progresses toward becoming a trillion-dollar economy. The state may cross that threshold earlier than we have previously forecast. Florida’s economy is large and is poised to grow even larger in the years ahead.

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

P e rson al I ncom e , Retai l Sa l es , and Auto Sa l e s Personal income growth quarter-over-quarter slowed in the third quarter in Florida. It increased slightly more than $4 billion after increasing $6.6 billion from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2010. Growth should remain steady into and through 2011, before personal income accelerates into 2012 and 2013.

Personal income growth will lag that of the nation as a whole through the first half of next year. In the second half, Florida will experience personal income growth higher than the national rate. 2012 will be the first time since 2006 that personal income growth will once again exceed the national rate. Income growth in Florida will finally shake off the effects of the housing and financial crises that have been depressing it for this extended period. Personal income will reach nearly $850 billion in 2013 - a year that will boast growth in excess of 6.0%. Looking beyond the end of the forecasting horizon in this quarterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s forecast suggests growth of personal income will continue to accelerate and over remaining years of this decade, should average a rate in excess of 7%.

Real disposable income growth, which also has been depressed by the struggling economy, will increase to 0.5% in 2010, the first acceleration since 2006. This acceleration of real disposable income should persist for the next two years. In 2011, growth should come in at 1.6% and rise through the fourth quarter of 2012. At that point, the tax burden is likely to rise as the two-year extension of the Bush tax cuts will most likely expire as politicians turn their attention to the curtailing of the deficit and working down the national debt. The economy will be in a much better position at that time to absorb the contractionary policy that must be implemented in an effort to solve this pressing structural problem. The stock market made a strong recovery from the nadir of the financial crisis. Sentiment has turned decidedly bullish and bodes well for 2011. A continued running of the bulls will help to recoup more of the trillions of dollars of wealth that were destroyed by the stock marketâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s plunge. The housing market in Florida has had no such luck, and while

housing prices do seem to be near their bottom, the home equity that has been lost could take decades to recover. In Florida, consumers have little choice when it comes to trying to reconstitute scrambled nest eggs, other than to save more of their income and to try to rebuild what was lost. This negative wealth effect will continue to dampen consumer spending.

Double digit unemployment will also continue to weigh on consumer spending in Florida. As the labor market stabilizes and private sector job creation begins, it will help lift consumer confidence. New hiring and a clearer sense that their own jobs are now safe will help to unlock some of the pent-up consumer spending that job insecurity hindered. Retail sales in Florida will grow in 2010 and 2011. Once the labor market has fully stabilized and begins its long path to recovery retail spending will begin to accelerate. We expect retail sales to expand an average of 5.2% in 2010 and 2011. The average growth rate of retail sales will be nearly 6.1% over the next two years of our forecast and, although sales growth will not reach growth rates experienced during the housing boom, it should help to alleviate the budget crisis in Tallahassee in 2012 and 2013.

This yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s holiday shopping season is looking to be an improvement over the previous several, but will not be a blockbuster and it appears to have been less of a boost to retail hiring than is typically the case. Retailers still have the stocking full of coal from the past couple of holiday seasons and that carbon reminder has led to a much more cautious approach to hiring this year.

The recession, housing and financial crises, credit crunch, oil price spike in 2008, and the collapsing domestic automotive industry did conspire to bring average new passenger car and truck registrations down overall in 2009, for a fourth straight year. As the economy turns around, the influence of these factors will fade and 2010 begins the start of a multiyear rise in the number of new passenger car and truck registrations. In 2013, registrations will reach 1.4 million more than double the 2009 nadir and commensurate with the average levels of registrations in 2003-2004.

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F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

Em p loy ment When the final revised data finally come in, we expect that overall payroll employment growth in the state to shrink by -0.5% for 2010 versus 2009. This comes after contracting at a -6.2% rate in 2009 compared to 2008, and -3.5% in the year prior to that.

Payroll job losses in Florida could persist through 2010 and into 2011 before starting to finally expand. While I fully expect payroll growth will finally take root in 2011, it will only gain significant momentum in 2012, when job growth versus a year ago is expected to come in at 3.3%. Payroll job growth will reach 3.9% in 2013. As a result of this more rapid acceleration of job growth, we believe it will now be the 1st quarter of 2014 before payroll employment levels return to their pre-recession peak. The woes of the Construction sector are well documented and unfortunately very persistent. This sector has been in near free fall after peaking during the housing boom, and it will continue to reflect the state of the housing market, the credit crunch, and an ongoing crisis in the commercial construction sector. Any job creation that might have stemmed from the shovel-ready projects that will be funded by the federal economic stimulus plan have been overwhelmed by job losses elsewhere in the sector.

The bottoming of the residential real estate market will give way to a slightly higher level of housing starts. This level is not much above the bottom for starts and will be a plateau upon which the levels of starts will remain for most of 2011. As 2012 begins, housing starts will once again resume their climb. Until this happens I do not expect to see any job growth in the Construction sector.

Job growth will not return to the Construction sector until the 2nd quarter of 2012. Growth rates are expected to surge from 1.3% in 2012 to 11.0% in 2013. These growth rates while large are now being added to a dramatically lower base of employment in the sector. By the end of 2013, employment in this sector should be back at levels previously reached in 1994. How long will it take for the Construction sector to return to the pre-housing bust peak level of employment? At this point it doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t seem

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

likely that the employment sector will return to its previous peak until 2025.

Now that Floridaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy has begun to recover and economic activity is on the rise, the Professional and Business Services sector will be one of the early beneficiaries of this recovery. Legal, tax, payroll and accounting firms to advertising and public relations companies and others in this sector will reap the benefits of a higher level of economic transactions. Job gains will be relatively modest in the near term but will rapidly accelerate. By the 4th quarter of 2011 job growth in the sector will be near 10%. For the full year, 2011 will turn in job growth at 7.3% and will accelerate and reach 10.5% 2012, and 11.8% in 2013. This sector will recover far more quickly than others, and will get back to pre-recession levels of employment before the end of 2012.

The Information sector will continue to shed jobs through 2010 and into 2011, before employment stabilizes and expands slightly by the end of 2011. Newspapers continue to adapt to the structural changes transforming the industry. Advertising revenues should be stable and begin to rise in part due to an improving outlook for the automotive sector. Several major newspapers and publishing groups still teeter on the edge of, or have entered into, bankruptcy. However, wireless communication, satellite telecommunications, data services and software should benefit from the expansion.

Job growth should return to the Information sector in the middle of 2011. This will be just the second year of job growth in this sector in 10 prior years, including five straight years of net job losses leading up to 2011. Job growth will jump to 2.1% in 2011 as the recovery kicks into gear, and average 3.6% in 2012-2013.

The one sector that has been a continual job generator during the recession and that is expected to continue to expand through the end of our forecast horizon is the Health and Education sector. During 2010-2013, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.6%. The average growth rate for overall payroll employment during the same time frame is expected to be 2.2%. Recent court rulings regarding health care reform as well as a number of pending lawsuits against

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

various aspects of this mammoth piece of legislation cloud the future of the healthcare sector. It is still difficult to tell precisely how politics and the legal system will ultimately impact healthcare in Florida, but clearly, with momentum toward expanding coverage and an older population, it appears that demand for health services will remain strong in the foreseeable future. This rising demand will continue to drive job growth in this sector. The possibility of Medicare cuts does raise an issue of concern that could materially impact this sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future in Florida. Manufacturing employment will again contract in Florida through 2010. Globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have combined to severely reduce employment in this sector for the better part of more than a decade. The sector is emerging from this period as competitive as it has been in many years prior. This and a weakened dollar will help drive job growth as exports continue to rise. This mini-renaissance in the sector will be a short term phenomena lasting for approximately 5 years.

We are expecting to see job growth of 0.9% in this sector for the full year in 2011, followed by an even stronger year of job growth in 2012, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 2.9%. For the first time in over two decades, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in three consecutive years, as 2013 job growth is expected to be 3.5%.

of 2013, unemployment will still be uncomfortably high at 9.2%. Job growth will trigger the reentry of discouraged workers who had abandoned the job search; this swelling of the labor force will make the reduction in the unemployment rate more difficult. Compared to unsustainably low levels of unemployment during the boom, these levels are still quite high. In fact, we do not expect to see unemployment in Florida fall below 6.0% again until 2020.

The problem of underemployment and marginally attached workersâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve monthsâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; and those who have given up searching for a job entirely, is substantial and, as just noted, it will be a factor behind the persistently high unemployment rate. When adding these workers to the top level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and is currently 19.2% through the 3rd quarter of 2010 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is higher than the BLS estimate of 19.0% that covered the 1st quarter of 2010.

U ne mploy me nt Unemployment rates in Florida remain at painfully high levels, despite the fact that the recession came to an end in the state. Real Gross State Product is growing as of the 1st quarter but the unemployment rate is not expected to begin its final descent until the 1st quarter of 2011. The labor market tends to lag the economy overall, but the weak nature of the recovery and the aftermath of the housing bust are both working to delay and dampen the labor market recovery. Unemployment is drifting up in the 4th quarter of this year as we predicted, and it will remain above 10% until the 1st quarter of 2013. In 2011, unemployment will begin its slow decline and it will continue through the end of 2013. By the end

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F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

531.2

582.8

633.2

690.3

720.5

737.9

Florida (%Ch)

4.5

9.7

8.7

9.0

4.4

2.4

U.S.(%Ch)

3.5

6.0

5.5

7.5

5.7

504.0

538.7

568.4

603.1

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

720.9

736.7

763.4

800.1

849.2

-2.3

2.2

3.6

4.8

6.1

4.0

-1.7

3.1

3.7

3.8

4.7

612.7

607.5

592.4

594.9

609.0

629.0

656.6 4.4

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch)

2.4

6.9

5.5

6.1

1.6

-0.9

-2.5

0.4

2.4

3.3

U.S.(%Ch)

2.5

10.1

4.3

7.6

-4.6

-0.1

-6.6

2.8

5.4

6.1

4.7

459.0

487.8

506.5

537.3

545.9

551.1

548.9

551.5

560.5

575.2

591.8

Florida (%Ch)

3.9

6.3

3.8

6.1

1.6

1.0

-0.4

0.5

1.6

2.6

2.9

U.S.(%Ch)

2.5

3.4

1.3

4.0

2.3

1.7

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.3

559.0

607.3

670.0

721.4

741.9

744.1

727.3

758.4

788.4

831.2

884.9

Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

6.9

8.6

10.3

7.7

2.8

0.3

-2.2

4.3

4.0

5.4

6.5

520.4

548.6

589.3

613.6

613.4

603.5

583.6

601.0

616.6

641.5

672.0

(%Ch)

4.6

5.4

7.4

4.1

0.0

-1.6

-3.3

3.0

2.6

4.0

4.8

Employment

1.7

3.0

3.8

3.4

1.4

-1.0

-4.5

-1.0

0.8

1.7

2.2

Labor Force

1.3

2.3

2.9

2.2

1.4

-0.1

0.6

0.4

0.8

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.3

4.7

3.8

3.4

4.1

6.3

10.5

11.9

11.6

10.7

9.6

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

6.0

5.5

5.1

4.6

5.8

9.3

9.7

9.6

9.1

8.3

GSP (Bil. 2000$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction

-0.3

1.1

1.7

1.8

1.1

-0.6

-4.3

-0.5

1.1

2.0

2.1

1.1

3.4

4.0

2.6

0.2

-3.5

-6.2

-0.5

1.9

3.3

3.9

-1.2

0.2

-0.8

-6.5

1.6

-7.8

-11.6

-1.5

2.6

2.2

0.0

3.8

9.4

11.3

7.2

-8.8

-17.4

-23.2

-7.7

-1.7

1.3

11.0

Manufacturing

-4.2

0.2

1.2

0.2

-4.2

-7.0

-13.0

-3.9

0.9

2.9

3.5

Nondurable Goods

-3.3

-2.1

-1.8

-2.0

-1.5

-6.2

-9.7

-1.8

-0.7

0.3

0.4

Durable Goods

-4.7

1.4

2.6

1.3

-5.4

-7.4

-14.7

-5.0

1.7

4.2

5.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-3.2

1.6

3.8

1.4

0.1

-2.1

-6.3

-0.9

1.8

5.5

4.2

0.5

3.4

4.1

2.9

1.5

-3.1

-8.1

-1.0

2.1

4.5

3.6

-0.2

2.7

4.1

2.0

0.5

-2.9

-6.6

0.6

0.7

2.0

2.1

Financial Activities

2.2

3.8

5.0

3.2

-1.0

-4.6

-7.5

-3.6

1.5

3.2

1.9

Prof. and Business Services

1.5

5.9

7.1

4.2

0.7

-6.1

-7.5

0.5

7.3

10.5

11.8

Edu & Health Services

3.7

3.0

2.4

2.7

3.1

2.1

1.1

3.0

3.2

2.5

1.6

Leisure & Hospitality

1.8

4.3

2.7

1.4

2.0

-1.4

-4.5

-0.9

1.9

1.4

1.3

-3.7

-2.1

0.2

-0.9

-0.3

-3.4

-8.2

-6.5

2.1

3.8

3.5

Federal Gov't.

3.4

0.4

1.5

-0.8

0.2

1.4

2.1

4.3

-6.2

-1.7

-1.2

State & Local Gov't.

1.1

1.4

2.0

2.4

0.3

-1.2

-0.5

-1.2

0.4

1.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade

Information

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

17,035.6 17,426.5 17,814.9 18,104.7 18,293.3 18,436.1 18,553.1 18,677.9 18,817.7 18,990.0 19,216.0 1.9

2.3

2.2

1.6

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.9

1.2

Net Migration (thous)

76.1

88.5

74.0

44.3

26.3

17.9

14.9

18.7

23.4

32.9

47.8

(%Ch)

11.9

18.6

-16.2

-41.8

-36.7

-32.4

-11.3

25.6

24.9

40.6

45.2

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

207.7

238.7

272.7

205.2

101.7

60.8

33.8

44.6

58.8

98.0

133.1

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

159.8

183.1

211.4

156.3

74.9

40.8

27.3

35.7

47.3

79.8

107.6

47.9

55.7

61.3

48.9

26.9

20.0

6.5

8.8

11.4

18.3

25.5

2.7

2.9

4.6

4.1

-0.2

1.0

1.5

1.8

2.0

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

3.4

4.3

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

738.7

746.5

752.9

759.6

766.8

774.2

782.9

793.3

805.7

818.3

830.0

842.6

855.4

868.8

Florida (%Ch)

2.8

3.4

3.5

3.8

3.7

4.0

4.4

5.1

5.7

6.0

6.2

U.S.(%Ch)

3.6

4.0

3.5

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.6

4.0

4.3

4.7

4.8

4.7

596.5

599.8

603.2

607.2

610.9

614.6

619.1

625.1

632.4

639.6

645.9

652.9

660.0

667.4

Florida (%Ch)

1.3

2.1

2.4

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.6

3.0

3.5

4.1

4.3

4.4

U.S.(%Ch)

3.3

3.7

4.6

4.5

6.1

6.6

6.3

6.4

6.1

5.6

4.9

4.5

4.6

4.8

552.7

555.5

559.0

562.2

565.3

567.2

572.3

578.0

583.6

584.6

588.5

593.6

600.5

Florida(%Ch)

1.3

2.0

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.8

2.1

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.1

2.8

2.7

2.9

U.S.(%Ch)

1.7

2.1

1.7

1.1

1.3

1.6

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.2

1.1

1.2

763.3

769.7

777.4

783.7

791.4

801.3

811.7

823.8

837.4

852.0

864.7

877.8

891.8

905.3

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

4.9

4.3

4.0

3.7

4.1

4.4

5.1

5.8

6.3

6.5

6.6

6.5

6.3

602.5

607.7

610.4

613.8

618.1

624.0

629.5

637.1

645.3

653.9

660.5

668.0

676.0

683.3

3.4

3.1

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.7

3.1

3.8

4.4

4.8

4.9

4.8

4.5

Employment

-0.4

0.1

0.6

0.2

0.9

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

Labor Force

0.4

0.5

0.2

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.9

11.7

11.9

11.8

11.7

11.5

11.3

11.1

10.9

10.6

10.3

10.0

9.7

9.4

9.2

9.6

9.8

9.7

9.6

9.5

9.4

9.2

9.0

8.8

8.6

8.4

8.2

8.0

GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)

FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

0.2

0.7

0.9

0.7

1.2

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.1

Florida

0.4

1.2

1.7

1.5

2.0

2.5

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.8

3.9

4.0

Mining

-1.8

-0.7

0.2

1.3

4.5

4.3

3.9

2.7

1.6

0.8

0.0

-0.2

-0.1

0.2

Construction

-4.8

0.1

-0.2

-2.0

-2.1

-2.6

-1.4

-0.2

1.9

5.0

8.2

10.6

12.2

13.1

Manufacturing

-2.2

1.0

0.8

0.2

1.1

1.5

2.2

2.7

3.1

3.6

3.8

3.5

3.1

Nondurable Goods

-0.6

0.9

-0.1

-1.7

-0.6

-0.4

-0.1

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.2

Durable Goods

-3.1

1.1

1.3

1.2

2.0

2.4

3.3

3.9

4.4

5.2

5.4

5.0

4.5

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

0.6

0.3

1.0

2.1

3.7

5.5

5.9

5.5

5.1

4.5

4.1

4.0

4.1

Wholesale Trade

0.3

1.3

0.6

1.5

2.7

3.8

4.9

4.8

4.2

4.0

3.8

3.6

3.8

3.3

Retail Trade

1.3

2.5

1.6

0.9

0.2

0.6

2.0

2.7

2.5

2.1

2.0

1.8

-3.1

-1.8

-0.6

1.4

2.2

2.9

3.3

3.2

3.3

3.1

2.5

1.9

1.6

Prof. and Business Services

1.4

2.4

4.6

6.3

8.5

9.8

9.6

9.8

11.0

11.5

11.8

11.7

Edu & Health Services

3.3

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.3

3.1

2.8

2.4

2.1

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

Leisure & Hospitality

0.8

1.4

3.3

2.3

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.1

-5.2

-4.3

-0.7

2.4

3.1

3.8

4.6

3.6

3.2

3.6

3.7

3.9

3.6

2.9

-1.5

-2.4

-16.1

-5.0

-1.1

-1.5

-1.7

-1.9

-1.8

-1.5

-1.2

-1.1

-1.0

-0.7

-1.0

-1.4

-1.5

-1.3

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.7

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.4

Financial Activities

Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

18,694.1 18,727.3 18,761.5 18,797.5 18,835.6 18,876.0 18,918.8 18,964.2 19,012.3 19,064.6 19,121.0 19,181.6 19,246.4 19,314.9 0.7

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

Net Migration (thous)

19.1

19.5

20.6

22.2

24.3

26.5

28.8

31.3

33.8

37.8

41.9

45.9

49.9

53.4

(%Ch)

25.7

18.9

17.5

19.0

27.3

35.9

39.7

40.9

38.9

43.0

45.4

46.6

47.5

41.2

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

46.5

44.3

48.7

54.8

61.6

70.0

80.2

92.0

105.9

114.1

121.1

130.1

137.9

143.3

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

34.5

36.1

39.5

44.3

49.6

56.0

63.7

74.6

86.9

93.9

99.2

106.3

111.6

113.2

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

12.0

8.2

9.2

10.5

12.0

14.1

16.4

17.4

19.0

20.3

21.9

23.8

26.3

30.0

0.9

0.6

1.1

1.6

1.4

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.1

Housing

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

1.5

1.8

*Quarterly at an annual rate Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,230.5

7,252.5

7,291.6

7,329.3

7,374.8

7,432.8

7,491.4

7,557.6

7,635.4

7,714.4

7,781.4

7,853.1

7,939.3

8,019.7

Manufacturing

309.9

310.1

310.3

311.7

313.3

314.6

317.0

320.0

322.9

326.0

329.0

332.1

334.1

336.1

Durable Goods

202.2

202.7

203.0

204.6

206.3

207.6

209.8

212.6

215.3

218.4

221.2

224.2

226.2

228.2

Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

8.5

8.4

8.5

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.3

9.6

10.0

10.2

10.4

10.5

10.6

43.7

44.1

44.2

44.3

44.4

44.5

44.7

45.0

45.3

46.1

46.5

46.3

32.6

32.5

32.7

33.0

33.3

33.8

34.4

35.1

35.7

36.4

37.0

37.6

38.1

38.6

107.7

107.4

107.3

107.1

107.0

107.2

107.4

107.6

107.7

107.8

107.9

29.2

29.3

29.4

29.5

6,920.6

6,942.4

6,981.3

7,017.6

7,061.5

7,118.1

7,174.4

7,237.6

7,312.5

7,388.3

7,452.4

7,521.0

7,605.1

7,683.6

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.7

Construction

361.8

362.3

357.5

355.8

354.3

352.8

352.4

355.1

361.1

370.4

381.2

392.7

405.0

418.8

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

228.8

228.5

228.4

230.4

233.7

237.0

240.8

243.9

246.6

249.0

251.6

253.9

256.6

259.2

Wholesale Trade

314.7

315.4

318.7

323.3

327.3

330.8

334.1

336.9

340.4

343.6

346.2

349.5

351.8

Retail Trade

930.2

935.7

938.5

932.8

931.9

937.7

944.0

951.9

957.2

963.2

967.3

971.7

976.7

980.2

Information

133.3

133.6

133.9

135.9

137.4

138.6

140.1

140.7

141.8

143.6

145.4

146.2

146.9

147.7

Prof. & Bus. Services

1,048.5

1,061.8

1,086.3

1,112.1

1,137.5

1,166.0

1,190.4

1,220.8

1,262.6

1,300.2

1,331.1

1,365.3

1,411.8

1,452.9

Admin. & Support

529.7

545.9

570.3

588.8

608.8

632.5

654.2

682.8

722.7

757.8

784.6

814.2

855.2

890.4

Prof. Sci & Tech

437.2

434.2

441.3

446.8

451.2

453.5

454.8

456.1

457.8

461.4

465.5

470.4

475.9

81.6

81.7

81.8

82.0

81.9

82.3

82.6

83.2

83.9

84.5

85.1

85.7

86.2

86.7

Financial Activities

463.4

464.2

466.3

470.3

473.7

477.4

481.7

485.4

489.3

492.2

493.6

494.5

497.2

500.1

Real Estate & Rent

148.7

148.2

149.4

150.7

152.2

153.7

155.5

157.2

159.1

160.5

161.3

162.1

163.1

164.1

Mgmt. of Co.

Fin. & Insurance

314.7

316.0

316.9

319.6

321.6

323.7

326.2

328.2

330.2

331.7

332.3

332.4

334.1

336.0

1,091.7

1,101.8

1,111.9

1,118.3

1,127.5

1,136.2

1,142.7

1,149.5

1,154.6

1,160.0

1,161.4

1,167.3

1,172.7

1,178.0

Education Services

149.4

150.6

151.7

152.5

152.8

153.4

153.2

152.9

152.6

152.9

153.0

153.3

Health Services

942.4

951.2

960.2

965.8

974.7

982.8

989.5

996.6

1,001.9

1,007.4

1,008.5

1,014.4

1,019.7

1,024.7

Edu. & Health Service

Leisure & Hospitality

910.5

912.2

916.7

918.4

919.9

921.5

926.5

930.5

933.4

936.4

940.1

942.5

944.2

946.8

Other Services

317.5

319.2

320.8

321.2

321.8

323.1

323.9

323.5

324.1

324.9

325.9

326.1

326.8

327.4

Government

1,114.6

1,102.6

1,100.2

1,098.2

1,094.9

1,095.4

1,096.4

1,099.2

1,102.2

1,105.5

1,108.9

1,112.0

1,115.0

Federal Gov't.

135.8

130.0

129.7

129.2

129.0

128.6

127.8

127.1

126.6

126.2

125.9

125.6

125.2

125.0

State & Local Gov't

978.8

972.6

970.5

969.0

965.9

966.3

967.6

969.4

972.6

976.0

979.6

983.4

986.7

990.0

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 4. Employment Annual 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

7,219.5 7357.11

7,599.7

7,898.4

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,250.4

7,499.3

7,799.8

8,002.2

8,018.1

7,735.5

7,259.1

Manufacturing

409.8

410.7

415.4

416.3

399.0

371.0

322.8

309.7

312.5

321.5

332.8

Durable Goods

270.0

273.8

281.0

284.6

269.2

249.3

212.9

201.9

205.4

214.0

224.9

Wood Products

17.8

20.3

22.4

21.6

17.0

12.8

9.1

8.5

8.6

9.5

10.4

Computer & Electronics

53.4

52.5

51.4

50.1

49.2

48.0

44.5

43.4

44.3

44.9

46.3

Transportation Equipment

43.7

44.3

45.6

45.7

44.6

42.5

34.7

32.7

33.2

35.4

37.8

139.8

136.9

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

109.9

107.8

107.1

107.5

107.9

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

29.5

32.3

31.2

31.3

29.5

27.0

25.9

25.7

25.6

25.4

7,278.2

7,565.5

7,384.6

7,586.0

7,619.5

7,388.5

7,069.2

7,014.6

7,109.1

7,347.2

7,610.8

5.6

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.4

6.2

5.7

5.6

Construction

359.8

399.4

633.1

677.9

618.6

512.8

427.6

383.7

382.5

411.1

448.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

245.1

255.3

247.3

250.9

251.0

244.1

231.0

220.2

225.7

238.6

248.7

Wholesale Trade

335.6

347.8

341.4

351.4

356.7

348.1

336.3

331.0

335.9

351.1

363.6

Retail Trade

928.9

954.2

993.5

1,013.3

1,017.9

988.7

923.3

928.6

935.3

954.1

974.0

Information

166.3

162.9

163.2

161.7

161.3

155.8

143.0

133.6

136.5

141.6

146.6

1,010.3

1,069.6

1,145.5

1,193.6

1,201.7

1,128.4

1,043.4

1,048.6

1,125.5

1,243.5

1,390.3

Admin. & Support

553.7

590.6

636.7

662.8

660.7

589.4

531.6

532.0

600.1

704.4

836.1

Prof. Sci & Tech

384.9

404.0

431.2

451.5

460.0

456.3

431.7

435.4

443.3

455.6

468.3

71.8

75.0

77.7

79.3

81.0

82.8

80.1

81.2

82.0

83.6

85.9

491.8

510.3

535.8

552.6

547.2

521.9

482.8

465.2

471.9

487.2

496.4

Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co. Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent

157.7

166.5

176.6

182.4

178.1

169.8

155.2

149.7

151.5

158.1

162.7

Fin. & Insurance

334.1

343.8

359.1

370.2

369.1

352.1

327.6

315.5

320.5

329.1

333.7

Edu. & Health Service

917.5

944.7

967.8

993.5

1,024.0

1,045.5

1,057.2

1,089.1

1,123.5

1,151.7

1,169.9

Education Services

110.0

118.7

124.6

128.3

134.1

138.0

141.7

148.0

152.6

152.8

153.0

Health Services

807.5

826.0

843.3

865.3

890.0

907.5

915.5

941.1

970.9

998.9

1,016.8

Leisure & Hospitality

871.6

909.3

933.7

947.2

965.9

952.6

909.9

901.8

919.1

931.7

943.4

Other Services

322.3

329.4

334.9

338.0

345.6

335.4

312.7

315.2

321.7

324.1

326.5

1,053.0

1,066.3

1,081.1

1,099.2

1,122.6

1,126.9

1,117.5

1,118.1

1,097.1

1,098.3

1,110.3

Federal Gov't.

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.7

128.0

129.7

132.4

138.2

129.1

126.9

125.4

State & Local Gov't

926.8

939.5

952.4

971.5

994.6

997.2

985.1

979.9

967.9

971.4

984.9

Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

738.7

746.5

752.9

759.6

766.8

774.2

782.9

793.3

805.7

818.3

830.0

842.6

855.4

868.8

Wages & Salaries

326.7

330.1

334.2

338.1

342.4

347.1

352.1

357.2

363.0

369.1

375.2

381.2

388.1

394.8

Other Labor Income

75.9

76.7

78.0

79.2

80.5

81.8

83.5

84.9

86.3

87.9

89.7

91.1

92.5

94.2

Nonfarm

39.5

39.9

40.6

41.3

41.9

42.7

43.3

44.1

44.7

45.4

45.7

46.3

47.0

47.7

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.2

Property Income

193.3

195.5

196.6

197.0

197.8

198.6

200.5

203.4

207.5

211.5

216.4

220.0

223.1

226.8

Transfer Payments

150.8

151.9

152.7

153.7

154.4

155.0

156.2

157.2

158.5

159.7

161.2

163.1

164.7

166.2

Social Insurance

50.7

51.0

52.4

53.0

53.5

54.2

56.0

56.7

57.6

58.5

61.4

62.4

63.2

64.3

Personal Income

596.5

599.8

603.2

607.2

610.9

614.6

619.1

625.1

632.4

639.6

645.9

652.9

660.0

667.4

Wages & Salaries

263.8

265.3

267.7

270.3

272.8

275.5

278.5

281.5

284.9

288.5

291.9

295.4

299.5

303.3

Other Labor Income

61.3

61.6

62.5

63.3

64.1

64.9

66.0

66.9

67.7

68.7

69.8

70.6

71.4

72.4

Nonfarm

31.9

32.1

32.5

33.0

33.4

33.9

34.3

34.8

35.1

35.4

35.6

35.9

36.3

36.7

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.9

Property Income

156.1

157.1

157.5

157.4

157.6

158.6

160.3

162.8

165.3

168.4

170.5

172.1

174.2

Transfer Payments

121.8

122.1

122.3

122.9

123.0

123.1

123.6

123.9

124.4

124.8

125.4

126.4

127.1

127.7

40.9

41.0

42.0

42.3

42.6

43.0

44.3

44.7

45.2

45.8

47.8

48.4

48.8

49.4

910.15

941.23

959.14

251.6

257.1

258.9

261.3

264.9

269.6

274.0

278.7

282.8

287.2

291.3

295.3

298.8

302.3

203.2

206.6

207.4

208.9

211.1

214.0

216.7

219.6

221.9

224.5

226.6

228.8

230.6

232.2

Farm

Billions 2000 $

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $) Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

995.81 1041.86 1108.71 1189.89 1251.51 1291.31 1333.83 1382.35 1425.96 1445.52 1457.62

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Billions Current Dollars

Personal Income

531.2

582.8

633.2

690.3

720.5

737.9

720.9

736.7

763.4

800.1

849.2

Wages & Salaries

264.5

285.6

310.3

333.1

344.6

340.9

323.5

325.2

340.5

360.4

384.8

Other Labor Income

59.2

63.3

69.5

72.9

73.1

73.6

73.9

75.6

79.8

85.6

91.9

Nonfarm

36.3

39.6

42.0

45.1

43.1

40.8

38.2

39.4

41.6

44.4

46.7

Farm

1.1

1.0

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.7

1.2

122.8

142.7

156.4

181.7

196.5

208.3

194.2

194.4

197.5

205.7

221.6

Transfer Payments

84.9

91.3

98.1

104.4

111.2

122.5

137.9

149.3

154.0

157.9

163.8

Social Insurance

39.0

42.3

46.2

49.9

50.9

50.8

49.4

50.4

53.3

57.2

62.8

Property Income

Billions 2000 $

Personal Income

504.0

538.7

568.4

603.1

612.7

607.5

592.4

594.9

609.0

629.0

656.6

Wages & Salaries

251.0

264.1

278.6

291.0

293.1

280.7

265.9

262.6

271.6

283.3

297.5

Other Labor Income

56.1

58.6

62.4

63.7

62.2

60.6

60.8

61.1

63.7

67.3

71.0

Nonfarm

34.5

36.6

37.7

39.4

36.7

33.6

31.4

31.8

33.2

34.9

36.1

Farm

1.0

0.9

1.3

1.1

0.7

0.5

0.6

1.0

0.9

116.5

131.9

140.4

158.7

167.1

171.4

159.6

157.0

157.5

161.8

171.3

Transfer Payments

80.5

84.4

88.0

91.2

94.6

100.8

113.3

120.5

122.8

124.2

126.6

Social Insurance

37.0

39.1

41.5

43.6

43.3

41.8

40.6

40.7

42.5

45.0

48.6

1397.29 1442.73 1449.69 1416.66 1242.20

951.97

693.83

Property Income

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

890.36 1026.38 1266.63 1427.86

Retail Sales (Billions $)

206.3

223.4

241.6

257.9

262.3

256.9

238.3

251.4

263.7

280.7

296.9

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

195.8

206.5

216.9

225.4

223.1

211.4

195.8

203.0

210.3

220.7

229.6

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

on & Health ployment

ds)

December 2010

cha r t s

07 08 09 10 11 12 13

F l o r i d a F OR E C A S T

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Personal Income 12% 10% 8% 7% 5% 3% 1% -0% -2% -4%

(% change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(% change year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1650.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0 440.0 420.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Information Employment 190.0

(Thousands)

180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Federal Government Employment 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (% change year ago)

60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1000.0

(Thousands)

950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

(% change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Gross State Product

Florida Employment (Thousands)

8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL CPI

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

F l o r i d a Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Fla. gets $800M more for high-speed rail

Floridians No. 2 for credit card delinquency

• Barack Obama announced in January that the government pledged $1.25 billion to the Tampa to Orlando stretch. Both awards will aid the $2.6 billion project.

• Florida is also ranked 35th when it comes to credit card debt, averaging $5,070 per person.

• The U.S. Department of Transportation promised $800 million to Florida’s high-speed rail line project.

• The DOT intends to award another $8M grant for planning the proposed high-speed rail line between Orlando and Miami. Source: Orlando Business Journal, October 25, 2010

• TransUnion approximated that 1.09 percent of Floridians have one credit card or more on which they are at least 90 days delinquent.

• Nationally, the delinquency rate fell to 0.83%. TransUnion predicts that people have stopped using their bank-issued credit cards, and that the rate will continue to decrease. Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 29, 2010

White House: No drilling of Florida coast

Fla. electric bills will be lower in 2011

• The new administration now understands the need to revolutionize safety standards and environmental regulations.

• The projected annual savings is $90 for residential customers using 1,000 kilowatt-hours per month.

• The Eastern Gulf of Mexico will see no new oil drilling for at least the next seven years because of the BP oil spill.

• The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is meeting to include federal, state and local officials in the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration.

Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, November 8, 2010 Universities net $10 million in grants

• Florida’s State University System distributed millions of dollars in awards. The Board of Governors publicized $10 million in New Florida Initiative grants.

• University of Florida received $2.45 million for ten different projects, some of which involve other universities. FSU was awarded $1.3 million and Florida A&M netted $450,000.

• FAMU and UF are collaborating to research health-care issues. FSU and USF plan to study geophysical threats in Florida. A multitude of state schools are expanding research in super-computing capabilities. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 16, 2010 35 schools districts face penalties for violating Florida’s classsize law • The Florida Department of Education announced that more than half of its school districts have disobeyed Florida Legislature.

• Since 2002, voters placed a law that requires schools to reduce class-size in core classes. The Florida School Boards Association has argued that the state has not given enough funds to meet the demands of the law. Palm Beach County alone faces fines up to $16M. • The Legislature has not contributed any money this year to assist in minimizing class-size; even though the education department approximated the cost would be $350M.

• Progress Energy Florida has requested to lower customers’ bills. The Florida Public Service Commission approved it.

• The savings is the result of reduced projected costs for fuel and purchased power, environmental projects, conservation programs, and nuclear generation. Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 30, 2010 Florida regulators issue warning to mortgage professionals

• A new nationwide mortgage licensing system is taking effect January 1st. The Florida Office of Financial Regulation is warning mortgage professionals that they could be unemployed in the near future. • Under the new system, all licensees are required to reapply. The application requires annual state and federal criminal background checks and credit report reviews for loan originators, brokers and lenders, and mortgage business owners.

• If the application is not certified as received by the end of the year, the professionals will find themselves unable to lawfully work in the mortgage industry. Source: Orlando Business Journal, December 7, 2010 Floridians among least healthy in U.S.

• Florida ranked No. 37 among all states in the 2010 edition of America’s Health Rankings published by the United Health Foundation and the American Public Health Association. • The ranking is based on rates of smoking, binge drinking, violent crime, infectious disease, occupational fatalities, obesity, and teen birth rates.

• Florida ranked No. 36 in 2009. Vermont is located at the top of the 2010 ranking and Oklahoma landed last. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, December 9, 2010

Source: Orlando Sentinel, November 30, 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Met r o s

Decembe r 2 010

F l o r i d a F OR E C A S T

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

P r o fi l e s The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500. Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 495,890 as of July 1st, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 255,337 in September 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 12.5% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 31,912 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Volusia County Schools – 8,273 employees • Halifax Health – 4,232 employees

• Florida Hospital (All divisions) – 3,717 employees • Volusia County Government – 3,519 employees • State of Florida – 2,423 employees • Publix – 2,415 employees

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,139 employees

• Daytona State College – 4,589 employees • U.S. Government – 1,434 employees

• Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,198 employees

Source: Department of Economic Development, Volusia County

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is expected to show modest growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.0 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be 28.1. Average annual wage will be the lowest level in the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas at 38.3. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent. Population growth will be the lowest of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas at 0.1 percent. The real Gross Metro Product will also be one of the lowest in the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas at $11,970.75 (Mill). The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.3 percent each year. Unemployment will average 11.6 percent annually.

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 4.5 percent annually. The Education and Health Services sector will see the second highest growth in the MSA, at 2.5 percent annually. The Manufacturing sector follows with an annual growth rate of 0.9 percent. The Federal and State and Local Government sectors will both experience a decline at -0.7 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s ISC cuts jobs, keeps tightening belt • The International Speedway Corporation has cut forty executive jobs at the Daytona location. This is part of the ISC’s goal to eliminate 20% of jobs and cut costs by $20-30 million. • The company claims it was hit hard by the recession and declining revenues. ISC responded by lowering ticket prices and delaying capital investments. But with interest rates so low, this may be the time to start big projects.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

• Among other large transactions, ISC expressed excitement about the sale of its $88 million property in Staten Island. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, October 8, 2010 New Salvation Army facility opening in DeLand • A new Salvation Army facility opened this quarter in DeLand. The Salvation Army has been in the area for 42 years, but this is the first time it has owned a building. • Donations funded the facility which boasts an 11,000 sq. foot home in the community. • Social services will still be offered at the old locations. The Salvation Army will also be offering programs for teens and children, including “Building Character” and an afterschool care program.

ISC secures new $300M credit facility • ISC’s new revolving credit facility was purchased to replace the old credit facility that was to expire in June 2011. • Its uses will include general corporate purposes such as external growth opportunities. The facility will be jointly managed by JP Morgan Securities LLC, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Inc, and Wells Fargo Bank NA. • ISC exploited market conditions to put itself in the position to invest in the business and sustain tactical enterprises. Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 22, 2010 Embry-Riddle gets $222K grant

• The Office of the Director of National Intelligence awarded Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University this grant in order to develop a new degree for the established Global Security and Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, November 12, Intelligence Studies field. This field, started in 2010 2005, is growing substantially with 200 students pursuing a degree. Volusia hopes artificial reefs will offset federal ban • Being one of two schools nationwide to receive on snapper, grouper fishing the grant, the university was instructed to create an undergraduate program to develop “security • Volusia County plans to expand its reef building professionals to fill entry level positions in the to compensate for the potential fishing ban on U.S. Intelligence community.” snapper and grouper in Northern and Central Florida Atlantic waters. Source: Orlando Business Journal, October 8, 2010 • Officials, trying to protect red snapper, are intending to ban fishing of over 70 other species in waters 98-240 feet deep to deter accidental red snapper deaths. • A recent study found that each dollar spent on constructing artificial reefs produces $138 in spending by fisherman and divers. • Reef cost averages $25,000. Builders use old concrete pieces that would normally be thrown in a landfill. Reef projects have been called “the ultimate recycling project.” Source: Orlando Sentinel, November 27, 2010 30

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

De l t o n a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Da y t o n a B each â&#x20AC;&#x201C; O r m o n d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quatients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.4

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 13000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0 10000.0 9000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

8000.0 7000.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0 135.0

1.2

12000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Deltona Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

December 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.6 2.9 5.7 10.9 13.4 1.5 33.6 27.1 36.7 1.1

16.7 3.4 5.8 11 13.4 2.1 33.9 27.2 37 1.3

16.9 3.4 5.9 11 13.5 2.3 34.3 27.4 37.3 2.9

17 3.6 5.9 11.1 13.6 2.2 34.5 27.6 37.5 3.2

17.2 3.7 6 11.2 13.7 2.3 34.9 27.8 37.8 3.1

17.3 3.6 6.1 11.3 13.8 2.4 35.1 27.9 38.1 3

17.5 3.6 6.1 11.4 13.8 2.3 35.5 28 38.4 2.9

17.7 4.1 6.2 11.5 14 2.6 35.9 28.3 38.6 2.9

18 4.7 6.3 11.7 14.1 3.1 36.4 28.5 38.9 2.8

18.3 5.3 6.4 11.9 14.3 3.6 36.8 28.8 39.2 2.8

18.5 5.6 6.5 12 14.4 3.9 37.2 29 39.5 2.9

18.7 5.6 6.6 12.2 14.5 3.9 37.7 29.2 39.8 3

19 5.5 6.7 12.3 14.6 3.7 38.1 29.4 40 3

19.2 5.5 6.8 12.5 14.8 3.6 38.5 29.6 40.3 2.9

157.4 1.8 7.5 0.8 149.9 1.9 8 -0.8 29.6 0.5 5 22.8 2.1 2.2 1.9 7 3.3 17.8 6.7 33.9 3.7 21.4 1.5 8.7 2 1.4 -2.3 19.8 -1.6

158.2 2 7.6 1.4 150.6 2 8 -2.5 29.8 0.8 5 22.9 2.2 2.3 3.1 7 3.1 18 7.5 34.1 3.4 21.4 1.2 8.7 1.6 1.4 0.2 19.8 -0.8

158.9 1.9 7.6 2.4 151.2 1.8 7.9 -1.9 30 1.3 5.1 23 2.2 2.3 4.2 7.1 3.3 18.3 6.8 34.2 2.4 21.5 0.7 8.8 1.3 1.4 -0.7 19.9 -0.4

159.9 2.1 7.7 3 152.2 2 8 -1.3 30.3 2.4 5.2 23.2 2.2 2.3 3 7.1 2.6 18.6 6.6 34.3 2.2 21.5 0.8 8.7 0.8 1.4 -1.6 19.9 0.1

161 2.3 7.8 3.4 153.2 2.3 8.1 0.8 30.5 2.9 5.2 23.3 2.2 2.3 2.6 7.2 2.7 19.1 7.4 34.4 1.5 21.6 1 8.8 0.7 1.4 -1.5 20 0.8

162.2 2.6 7.9 3.9 154.4 2.5 8.3 3.7 30.7 2.9 5.3 23.5 2.3 2.3 3.4 7.2 2.6 19.5 8 34.5 1.1 21.6 1.2 8.8 0.5 1.4 -1.2 20.1 1.2

163.2 2.7 8 4.3 155.2 2.6 8.5 7.5 30.8 2.7 5.3 23.6 2.3 2.4 4.1 7.2 2 19.8 8.5 34.4 0.7 21.7 1 8.8 0.6 1.4 -0.8 20.1 1.5

164.3 2.8 8 4.2 156.3 2.7 8.8 10 31 2.4 5.4 23.7 2.3 2.4 4.8 7.2 1.5 20.2 8.6 34.5 0.6 21.7 0.7 8.8 0.6 1.4 -0.6 20.3 1.8

165.7 2.9 8.1 3.8 157.6 2.8 9.1 11.9 31.2 2.4 5.5 23.9 2.3 2.4 5 7.3 1.3 20.7 8.6 34.7 0.8 21.7 0.4 8.8 0.7 1.4 -0.7 20.3 1.9

166.9 2.9 8.1 3.5 158.8 2.9 9.4 13.1 31.3 2.1 5.5 24 2.4 2.4 4.6 7.3 1.5 21.2 8.7 34.8 0.9 21.7 0.3 8.8 0.6 1.4 -0.7 20.4 1.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

154.5 -0.2 7.5 -3 147.1 -0.1 8.1 -6.3 29.5 -1.4 4.9 22.6 2.1 2.2 -5.4 6.8 -3.6 16.7 -1.5 32.7 4.7 21.1 2.9 8.5 0.7 1.4 2.6 20.2 -3.1

155.1 0.5 7.5 -1.3 147.7 0.6 8.2 -1.1 29.6 -0.5 4.9 22.8 2.1 2.2 -4.7 6.8 -1.4 16.8 -0.2 33 5.1 21.1 1.4 8.6 1.2 1.4 -0.6 20 -3.2

156 1 7.5 -1.4 148.5 1.1 8.1 -0.7 29.6 -0.7 4.9 23 2.1 2.2 -2.1 6.9 0 17.1 2.9 33.4 5 21.3 1.5 8.6 1.8 1.4 -0.1 19.9 -2.9

156.7 1.7 7.5 -0.7 149.2 1.8 8.1 -2.2 29.6 0.5 4.9 22.8 2.1 2.2 2.5 7 2.2 17.5 5 33.6 5.1 21.4 3.9 8.7 1.8 1.4 -22.6 19.9 -2.4

11456 11559.3 11611.9 11677.9 11749.9 11840.9 11920.2 493.7 493.5 493.2 493.1 493.1 493.3 493.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 253.3 254.3 254.8 255.1 255.7 256.4 257.1 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.9 12.2 12.1 12.2 12.1 12 11.9 11.8 905 1009 1124 1317 1549 1814 2120 753 844 970 1139 1337 1559 1825 153 166 154 178 212 255 295

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

12051 12186.6 494.3 494.9 0.2 0.4 257.5 257.9 0.9 0.8 11.6 11.4 2473 2850 2177 2537 296 313

12333 12441.7 12574.4 12715.8 12847.6 495.7 496.3 497.2 498.3 499.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 258.1 258.4 258.8 259.4 260 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 11.2 10.9 10.6 10.3 10 3084 3266 3523 3743 3876 2748 2897 3115 3282 3331 336 369 408 461 545

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

December 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

12.2 4.5 4.7 7.5 11.6 2.5 26.2 24.8 29.8 3.9

13.4 9.6 5.1 8.3 12.4 6.8 28.1 26 31 4.1

14.3 6.3 5.5 8.8 12.8 3.2 29.3 26.3 32 3.4

15.3 7.3 5.9 9.3 13.4 4.4 30.9 27 34 6.1

16.1 5.1 6.1 10 13.7 2.3 32.3 27.4 35.3 3.7

16.4 2.2 6 10.4 13.5 -1 33 27.2 35.9 1.8

16.2 -1.7 5.7 10.5 13.3 -1.8 32.6 26.8 36.1 0.6

16.5 2.3 5.7 10.8 13.3 0.5 33.5 27 36.6 1.3

17.1 3.6 6 11.2 13.7 2.3 34.7 27.7 37.7 3

17.9 4.4 6.3 11.6 14.1 2.9 36.1 28.4 38.8 2.9

18.9 5.5 6.6 12.2 14.6 3.8 37.9 29.3 39.9 3

20.2 7 7 13.1 15.3 4.9 40.2 30.5 41.1 2.9

172.5 -0.8 10.3 -2.6 162.1 -0.7 14.2 -10.4 33.6 1.1 5.3 25.8 2.5 2.5 5.2 8 2.2 18 -7.1 30.6 0.2 22.6 4.6 8.1 -1.7 1.4 -0.6 23.1 1.4

166.8 -3.3 9.1 -12.2 157.8 -2.7 11.3 -20.2 32.5 -3.3 5.2 24.8 2.4 2.6 3.7 7.7 -4.1 17.4 -3.2 31.9 4.2 22.5 -0.2 8.2 1 1.4 0 22.2 -4

156.5 -6.2 7.8 -14.4 148.8 -5.7 8.8 -22.2 30 -7.5 4.9 23 2.1 2.4 -9.2 7 -8.7 17.3 -1 31.3 -1.6 21 -6.5 8.5 3.8 1.4 1.8 20.9 -5.9

154.5 -1.3 7.5 -3.5 147 -1.2 8.2 -7.3 29.6 -1.5 4.9 22.7 2.1 2.2 -6.8 6.8 -3.1 16.7 -3.4 32.3 3.2 20.9 -0.6 8.5 0 1.5 6.6 20.3 -3

157.1 1.6 7.5 0 149.6 1.7 8.1 -1.6 29.7 0.3 5 22.9 2.1 2.2 1.3 7 2.2 17.6 5.5 33.7 4.3 21.3 2 8.7 1.8 1.4 -7.3 19.9 -2

160.5 2.2 7.7 3.2 152.8 2.1 8.1 0.3 30.4 2.4 5.2 23.3 2.2 2.3 3.3 7.2 2.8 18.9 7.2 34.3 1.8 21.6 1 8.8 0.8 1.4 -1.2 20 0.4

165 2.8 8 3.9 157 2.8 8.9 10.6 31.1 2.4 5.4 23.8 2.3 2.4 4.6 7.3 1.6 20.5 8.6 34.6 0.8 21.7 0.6 8.8 0.6 1.4 -0.7 20.3 1.7

170.4 3.3 8.2 2.5 162.1 3.3 10.1 13.2 31.6 1.7 5.6 24.3 2.4 2.5 5.2 7.4 1.9 22.5 10 35.4 2.2 21.6 -0.2 8.9 0.8 1.4 -0.4 20.7 1.8

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

157.6 3.1 9.4 -1.5 148.1 3.5 11.5 7.9 31.5 1.6 4.6 24.3 2.6 2.3 -7.6 6.5 1.2 16.4 6.8 30.1 6.7 20 2.2 7.8 2.9 1.4 2.4 20.7 0.5

164.4 4.3 9.8 3.9 154.6 4.4 12.9 12.8 32 1.7 4.7 25 2.3 2.3 -2.5 6.9 7.2 18.1 10.4 30.7 1.9 21.1 5.3 8.2 4 1.4 0 21.1 2.1

170.8 3.9 10.2 4.3 160.6 3.9 14.8 14.5 33.2 3.7 4.8 26 2.4 2.2 -3.3 7.3 5.5 19.6 8.1 30.5 -0.7 21.7 2.9 8.2 0.1 1.4 1.2 21.8 3.6

173.9 1.8 10.6 3.9 163.3 1.6 15.9 7.3 33.2 0 5 25.9 2.4 2.4 8.3 7.9 7.2 19.4 -0.9 30.5 0.2 21.6 -0.4 8.3 1.2 1.4 -0.6 22.8 4.4

9906.7 10509.9 11339.7 11799.4 11720.5 11527.1 11084.4 11395.3 11720.1 12122.7 12644.9 13270.8 467.5 477.7 486.9 494.6 498.2 497.2 495.6 493.9 493.1 494.6 497.8 502.4 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.6 0.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 226.8 232.7 242.7 247.6 251.1 254.2 253.9 254.2 255.5 257.6 259.1 261.3 2.7 2.6 4.3 2 1.4 1.2 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 5.2 4.5 3.6 3.2 4 6.5 11 12.3 12.1 11.5 10.4 9.4 6165 6168 6349 4114 2204 1361 723 893 1451 2632 3602 4211 4987 4777 5118 3100 1585 1035 663 783 1251 2322 3156 3496 1178 1391 1231 1014 619 326 60 109 200 310 446 715

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the northcentral portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum. Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 260,690 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Alachua County population estimate of 243,574 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,116 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 142,433 in September 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 8.3% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 11,858 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• University of Florida – 14,723 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Gainesville MSA is expected to show modest growth in all of the economic indicators measured in this forecast, relative to the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. Personal income growth will see a 3.8% growth while per capita income level is expected to average 30.0. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at 43.2. Population growth will average 0.3 percent annually. The real Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest in the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas at $8,019.48 (Mill). Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 2.2 percent annually. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest unemployment rate of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas, at 7.5 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 5.6 percent annually. This is followed by the Education and Health Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 1.9 percent. The Information, State and Local government, and Federal government sectors will experience a decline, with annual growth rates of -0.1, -0.3 and -0.9 percent, respectively.

• Shands Hospital – 12,588 employees

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s

• Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees

Local biotechnology companies to collect $4.5 million in health care grants

• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 4,317 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees

• Nationwide Insurance Company – 1,300 employees • Alachua County Government – 1,120 employees • Santa Fe Community College - 796 employees

Source: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

• Ten Alachua County businesses will collect $4.5 million in tax credits and grants under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which was part of the health care reform act. • Nine out of ten of these companies are University of Florida startups and all are biotechnology companies. • Several more companies currently located outside of Alachua County, but got their start with UF research, will receive nearly $6 million. Source: The Gainesville Sun, November 8, 2010

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

Gai n e s v i l l e

Local energy company enters Texas market • Texas’s deregulation of the electricity market has opened doors for companies such as Gainesvillebased Infinite Energy to get in to the market. • In the past 2 years, Infinite Energy has invested over $10 million and hired 30 employees, all of which are located in Gainesville. The company was founded by Darin Cook and Rich Blaser, who used to work as natural gas buyers for Gainesville Regional Utilities. Source: The Gainesville Sun, November 11, 2010

North Florida Regional announces additional $58M expansion • North Florida Regional has three expansions planned, a Heart and Vascular Center, a Level II neonatal intensive care unit, and a new patient tower in the front of the main building. • The expansions will cost $58 million; the amount has been approved by hospital executives. • In 2009, North Florida Regional served over 191,000 patients in the 14-county area it serves. Source: The Gainesville Sun, December 2, 2010

Project at AGH site may create 3,000 jobs • The University of Florida has launched plans to build Innovation Square on the site of the old Shands Alachua General Hospital. • The new development will include 1 million square feet. Other plans include possible renovations to the nearby Ayers Building to provide space for businesses once they have grown beyond the planned Florida Innovation Hub, a business incubator. Source: The Gainesville Sun, November 30, 2010 $3.3 million effort begun to bring 1,200 jobs to area • Gainesville’s Council for Economic Outreach has announced its new five-year plan to implement Innovation Gainesville and expand Gainesville’s economy. The plan, called Momentum 2015, includes an expected $3.3 million in donations from local businesses to finance the plan’s goals. • The last five-year plan, called Opportunity 2010, brought in about $2.7 million. So far, about 43 businesses have contributed to the current plan. Source: The Gainesville Sun, December 1, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.8

2.2

2.4

8500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8000.0

7000.0 6500.0 6000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

125.0 120.0

1.6

7500.0

130.0

115.0

1.4

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

5500.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income

Gainesville Payroll Employment 135.0

1.2

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

Gai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

December 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

9.4 3.1 5.3 4.1 7.6 1.7 36 29.1 41.4 1.5

9.5 2.5 5.3 4.1 7.6 1.3 36.3 29.2 41.7 1.4

9.6 2.9 5.4 4.2 7.7 1.9 36.7 29.4 42.1 3

9.6 2.8 5.5 4.2 7.7 1.5 36.9 29.5 42.4 3.3

9.7 3.3 5.5 4.2 7.7 1.9 37.2 29.6 42.7 3.2

9.8 3.4 5.6 4.2 7.8 2.1 37.4 29.7 43 3

9.9 3.3 5.6 4.3 7.8 2 37.8 29.9 43.4 3

10 3.6 5.7 4.3 7.9 2.1 38.2 30.1 43.6 2.9

10.1 4.2 5.8 4.4 7.9 2.6 38.6 30.3 44 2.9

10.3 4.7 5.8 4.4 8 3.1 39.1 30.5 44.3 2.9

10.4 4.9 5.9 4.5 8.1 3.2 39.4 30.7 44.7 3

10.5 5.1 6 4.5 8.1 3.3 39.8 30.9 45 3.1

10.6 5 6.1 4.6 8.2 3.3 40.2 31 45.3 3.1

10.8 5 6.1 4.6 8.3 3.2 40.6 31.2 45.6 3

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

127.5 0.7 3.9 -2.7 123.7 0.8 4.6 0.6 18.1 -0.1 2.5 13.1 2.5 1.5 -4.5 5.7 -3 10.5 1.2 23.2 3.9 13.3 0.9 4.6 2.4 4.4 3.7 37.7 -0.4

127.5 0.1 3.9 -1.9 123.6 0.2 4.6 1.5 18.1 1.2 2.5 13.2 2.5 1.5 -2.7 5.8 -2.6 10.6 1.4 23.4 2.5 13.3 -0.1 4.6 2.3 4.3 -0.6 37.4 -1.8

127.9 0.2 3.9 0.1 124.1 0.2 4.5 0.1 18.1 0.7 2.5 13.3 2.5 1.5 -0.9 5.8 -2.2 10.8 1.6 23.6 3 13.5 2.8 4.7 3 4.3 -3.6 37.2 -2.4

128.2 -0.1 3.9 0.2 124.3 -0.1 4.5 0 18.1 0.2 2.5 13.2 2.5 1.5 0.3 5.9 0.8 11 4 23.8 2.6 13.6 2.7 4.7 2.6 4.2 -13.5 37.1 -2.7

128.5 0.8 3.9 0.9 124.6 0.8 4.5 -2.2 18.1 0.1 2.6 13.2 2.5 1.5 0.9 5.9 3 11.2 6.6 23.9 3.1 13.6 2.4 4.7 2 4.2 -4.5 36.9 -2

128.9 1.1 3.9 1.5 125 1.1 4.5 -3.3 18.2 0.4 2.6 13.2 2.6 1.5 1.7 5.9 2.8 11.4 7.4 24.1 2.9 13.6 2.1 4.7 1.5 4.2 -1.4 36.9 -1.3

129.3 1.1 4 2.5 125.3 1 4.4 -2.5 18.3 1 2.6 13.3 2.6 1.5 2.7 6 3 11.5 6.7 24.1 2 13.7 1.2 4.7 1.3 4.2 -1.9 36.9 -0.9

129.9 1.3 4 3.1 125.9 1.2 4.4 -1.6 18.4 2 2.6 13.3 2.6 1.5 2.6 6 2.3 11.8 6.5 24.2 1.7 13.7 1.3 4.7 0.7 4.2 -2.1 36.9 -0.5

130.5 1.6 4 3.6 126.5 1.5 4.5 0.3 18.5 2.4 2.6 13.4 2.6 1.6 2.6 6 2.4 12 7.2 24.2 1.1 13.8 1.3 4.7 0.6 4.1 -2 37 0.1

131.2 1.8 4.1 4.1 127.1 1.7 4.6 2.8 18.7 2.4 2.7 13.5 2.7 1.6 3.1 6.1 2.4 12.3 7.8 24.2 0.7 13.8 1.3 4.7 0.4 4.1 -1.9 37.1 0.5

131.7 1.9 4.1 4.5 127.5 1.8 4.7 6.1 18.7 2.3 2.7 13.5 2.7 1.6 3.4 6.1 1.7 12.5 8.3 24.2 0.3 13.8 0.9 4.7 0.4 4.1 -1.5 37.2 0.8

132.3 1.9 4.2 4.4 128.1 1.8 4.8 8 18.8 1.9 2.7 13.6 2.7 1.6 3.5 6.1 1.2 12.7 8.3 24.2 0.2 13.8 0.5 4.7 0.4 4.1 -1.3 37.3 1

133.1 2 4.2 4.1 128.9 1.9 4.9 9.4 18.9 1.8 2.8 13.6 2.7 1.6 3.5 6.1 1 13 8.4 24.3 0.4 13.8 0.2 4.7 0.5 4.1 -1.4 37.4 1.1

133.8 2 4.2 3.7 129.5 1.9 5 10.2 18.9 1.6 2.8 13.7 2.8 1.6 3 6.1 1.1 13.3 8.5 24.3 0.5 13.8 0.2 4.7 0.4 4.1 -1.3 37.5 1.1

7741.5 261.1 0.1 139.7 1.2 8.1 553 320 233

7798.6 261.2 0.1 139.6 0.2 8 656 339 317

7821.6 261.3 0.1 138.8 -1.4 8 658 365 293

7851.3 261.4 0.1 138.1 -2 7.9 663 400 264

7887.6 261.5 0.1 137.5 -1.6 7.8 676 432 244

7937.5 261.6 0.1 137 -1.9 7.7 698 465 233

7978.8 261.7 0.2 136.5 -1.7 7.5 758 537 221

8052.5 261.9 0.2 136.3 -1.3 7.4 810 622 188

8127.3 262.2 0.3 136.1 -1 7.2 905 720 186

8207.3 262.6 0.4 135.8 -0.8 7 972 775 198

8261.8 263.1 0.6 135.6 -0.6 6.8 1035 815 220

8332 263.7 0.7 135.8 -0.4 6.6 1117 874 243

8407 264.4 0.8 135.9 -0.2 6.4 1193 918 275

8473.6 265 0.9 136.1 0.2 6.3 1255 929 326

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

December 2010 Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

6.3 3.4 3.8 2.5 6 1.3 26.1 24.7 29.9 1.7

7.1 13 4.3 2.8 6.6 10.1 29.1 26.9 33.4 11.8

7.7 8.2 4.6 3.1 6.9 5.1 31 27.8 35.2 5.2

8.3 7.9 4.9 3.4 7.3 5 32.7 28.6 36.9 5.1

8.8 5.9 5.1 3.7 7.5 3.1 34.2 29.1 38.2 3.4

9.1 3 5.2 3.9 7.5 -0.3 35 28.8 38.8 1.6

9.1 0.5 5.2 3.9 7.5 0.3 35 28.7 40.4 4

9.4 3 5.3 4.1 7.6 1.3 36 29.1 41.3 2.2

9.7 3.1 5.5 4.2 7.7 1.9 37.1 29.6 42.6 3.1

10.1 3.9 5.7 4.3 7.9 2.4 38.4 30.2 43.8 2.9

10.6 5 6 4.6 8.2 3.3 40 31 45.2 3.1

11.2 6.3 6.3 4.9 8.5 4.2 42.2 32 46.5 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 126.4 128.6 130.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.8 1.2 Manufacturing 4.7 4.7 4.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3 -1.8 -0.2 Nonmanufacturing 121.6 123.9 125.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.9 1.3 Construction & Mining 5.2 5.8 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 11.7 6.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 18.1 18.2 18.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.4 3.5 Wholesale Trade 2.5 2.6 2.7 Retail Trade 13.1 13.2 13.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.5 2.4 2.4 Information 2 2.1 2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 6.1 -5.8 Financial Activities 6.2 6.2 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4 -0.7 1 Prof & Business Services 9.4 10.3 10.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 9.8 6.1 Educ & Health Services 20.8 21.5 21.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.9 2.1 Leisure & Hospitality 12 12.9 13.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 7.5 5.9 Other Services 4.5 4.7 4.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 3.3 -3 Federal Government 3.3 3.4 3.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.8 5.9 State & Local Government 40 38.8 37.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 -2.8 -3.3

132.3 1.6 5.2 12.2 127.1 1.2 6.5 5.2 19.5 3.3 2.7 14.1 2.6 2 -2.9 6.5 4 11.1 1.4 21.9 0.1 13.4 -2 4.7 2.6 3.7 2.1 37.9 0.9

134.2 1.4 5.3 2.2 128.8 1.4 6.5 0.9 20.2 4 2.8 14.9 2.6 2 2.6 6.4 -0.5 10.6 -4.4 21.8 -0.5 14 4.1 4.8 3.7 3.8 3.1 38.6 1.8

133.5 -0.5 5.1 -4.7 128.4 -0.3 5.7 -13.2 19.7 -2.8 2.8 14.2 2.7 1.9 -7 6.2 -3.3 10.7 1.8 22.4 2.9 14.5 3.7 4.8 -0.5 4 5.2 38.5 -0.3

127.8 -4.3 4.2 -17.4 123.6 -3.8 4.7 -17.1 18.3 -6.9 2.6 13.3 2.5 1.6 -13.3 5.9 -5.3 10.4 -3.1 22.5 0.4 13.5 -7.1 4.6 -5.3 4.3 5.3 37.8 -1.7

127.7 0 3.9 -7.7 123.9 0.3 4.6 -3.1 18.1 -1.4 2.5 13.1 2.5 1.5 -6.9 5.8 -1.3 10.6 1.8 23.2 2.9 13.2 -1.7 4.6 0.4 4.5 6 37.8 0.1

128.4 0.5 3.9 0.7 124.5 0.5 4.5 -1.4 18.1 0.3 2.5 13.2 2.5 1.5 0.5 5.9 1.1 11.1 4.9 23.8 2.9 13.6 2.5 4.7 2.3 4.2 -6 37 -2.1

130.2 1.4 4 3.3 126.2 1.4 4.5 -0.3 18.5 2 2.6 13.4 2.6 1.6 2.7 6 2.5 11.9 7.1 24.2 1.4 13.7 1.3 4.7 0.7 4.2 -2 37 -0.2

132.7 1.9 4.2 4.2 128.5 1.8 4.9 8.4 18.8 1.9 2.7 13.6 2.7 1.6 3.4 6.1 1.2 12.9 8.4 24.3 0.3 13.8 0.4 4.7 0.4 4.1 -1.4 37.3 1

135.7 2.3 4.3 2.7 131.4 2.2 5.4 10 19.1 1.2 2.8 13.8 2.8 1.6 2.3 6.2 1.6 14.2 9.8 24.7 1.7 13.8 -0.1 4.8 0.6 4.1 -1 37.7 1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7463 254 2.1 132.2 1.7 2.7 1877 1155 721

7580.5 257.3 1.3 135.9 2.8 3 1366 763 603

7676.3 259.3 0.8 138.9 2.2 4.3 1057 516 541

7500.5 260.7 0.5 138.5 -0.3 7.2 482 363 119

7743.3 261.1 0.1 140.2 1.2 8.3 605 414 191

7874.5 261.4 0.1 137.8 -1.7 7.8 674 415 259

8091.5 262.1 0.3 136.2 -1.2 7.3 861 663 198

8368.6 264.1 0.8 135.9 -0.2 6.5 1150 884 266

8694.7 266.5 0.9 136.4 0.4 5.9 1385 968 416

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

6608 241.7 1.1 126 0.8 3.7 1709 1260 449

6892.7 244.6 1.2 126.5 0.4 3.4 1835 1377 458

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

7209 248.9 1.7 130 2.7 2.9 2219 1455 764

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Profiles The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport. Quick Facts:

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Jacksonville MSA is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the twelve metropolitan statistical areas included in the forecast. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 4.5 percent, while the per capita income level will be one of the highest in the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas at 33.7. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent. Average annual wage is expected to be among highest of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas, at a level of 48.4. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.0 percent. The real Gross Metro Product will be $49,833.48 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 2.1 percent annually. Unemployment will average 10.7 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional & Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 8.0 percent. Following that sector is the Education and Health Services sector, with an annual growth rate of 2.8 percent, and then Trade, Transportation and Utilities with a 2.0 percent growth rate. The Federal Government and the State and Local Government sectors will experience declines of -1.7 and -0.4 percent, respectively.

• Metro population estimate of 1,367,692 as of 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • Baker County population estimate of 26,336 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 186,756 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 857,040 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 70,576 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 187,436 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 690,752 in September 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.5% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 79,444 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s

Top Area Employers:

Baptist opens $15M breast cancer center

• • • •

Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees Duval County Public Schools – 14,489 employees Naval Station Mayport – 10,000 employees City of Jacksonville Municipal Government – 8,828 employees • Baptist Health – 8,100 employees • Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 7,000 employees • Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees • Citibank – 4,600 employees • CSX – 4,400 employees • Bank of America – 4,000 employees Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership

• Baptist Heath has relocated all breast health diagnostics to the new 22,000-square-foot Margaret and Robert Hill Breast Center that will include new breast MRI technology and all the equipment needed. • The Hill Breast Center will provide screening, treatment, genetic counseling, and in the future it will offer other complementary medicine options such as massage therapy and acupuncture. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, October 11, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ac k s o n v i l l e

New roads could give Jacksonville’s Northside a boost • The Jacksonville Economic Development Commission has developed a plan to use tax increment financing from the Jacksonville International Airport Community Redevelopment Area for six road projects near the airport. • In recent years, the taxes generated by the community redevelopment area have been used to help balance the city’s budget, instead of creating new development projects. • The JEDC’s plan, called North Jacksonville Action Plan, will have to be approved by the city council and the Department of Transportation before it can begin. Source: The Florida Times-Union, November 14, 2010 One in 6 Duval classrooms over size limits, state says • The Florida Department of Education reported that about 16 percent of Duval County classrooms violated the class-size caps. • The district could lose as much as $6 million in state funding, which could be reduced to less than $1.8 million depending on the district’s plan to reach compliance next year. • The district has spent about $801 million to reach the class-size requirements and has only received $765 million from the state. In order to be in compliance this year, the district would have had to cut an additional $12 million from its costs. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 30, 2010

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

Hanjin terminal design moving forward • After one year, the Jacksonville Port Authority has renewed its efforts to construct a $300-million container terminal at Dames Point for the Hanjin Shipping Co. Ltd. • The authority is negotiating a contract worth around $6 million for the design of the terminal with Halcrow, an international engineering firm. • The cruise terminal currently active at the site will be relocated to the authority’s property in Mayport or to an undisclosed site when it interferes with construction in about two years. The new terminal is expected to be completed by 2014. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, December 8, 2010 Jacksonville City Council faces redistricting process • After the council receives the 2010 census data in spring, it will only have 30 days to set a new reapportionment plan. • There will not be a special reapportionment committee, the Rules Committee and its Chairwoman E. Denise Lee will be in charge of the reapportionment process. • In order to save money, the council will use the Planning Department, Supervisor of Elections Office and the city’s Geographic Information System instead of hiring outside consultants to draw boundaries and to study the neighborhoods’ demographics. Source: The Florida Times-Union, December 9, 2010

J ac k s o n v i l l e Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 55000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

45000.0 40000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

35000.0

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 660.0 640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0

50000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

December 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

54.1 2.4 27.7 26.3 43.6 0.9 40.2 32.5 46.2 0.8

54.6 2.7 28.1 26.5 43.9 1.4 40.6 32.6 46.7 1

55.2 3.1 28.5 26.7 44.2 2.1 40.9 32.8 47.1 2.8

55.8 3.5 28.9 26.9 44.6 2.1 41.3 33 47.4 3.3

56.3 4.3 29.3 27.1 44.9 2.9 41.6 33.2 47.8 3.4

57 4.4 29.7 27.3 45.2 3.1 42 33.3 48.2 3.2

57.7 4.5 30.2 27.5 45.6 3.2 42.4 33.5 48.6 3.1

58.5 4.9 30.7 27.8 46.1 3.5 42.9 33.8 48.9 3.1

59.5 5.6 31.2 28.3 46.7 4.1 43.5 34.2 49.3 3

60.5 6.2 31.8 28.7 47.3 4.6 44.2 34.5 49.7 3.1

61.5 6.6 32.3 29.1 47.8 4.9 44.7 34.8 50.1 3.1

62.5 6.9 32.9 29.6 48.5 5.1 45.3 35.1 50.5 3.2

63.6 6.8 33.5 30.1 49.1 5 45.9 35.4 50.8 3.2

64.6 6.8 34.1 30.5 49.7 5 46.5 35.7 51.2 3.1

592.6 2.3 27.1 1 565.6 2.4 29.5 -1.3 130.2 1.2 27.1 72.1 31.4 10.2 2.2 54.3 2.3 88.8 8.8 89.8 4.1 65 1.6 24.3 2 16.8 -3.4 56.7 -1.9

597.1 2.7 27.2 1.6 569.9 2.7 29.3 -2.6 131.3 1.8 27.4 72.5 31.9 10.2 2.8 54.6 2.3 91 10.1 90.4 3.8 65.1 1.4 24.4 1.6 16.8 -1.1 56.7 -1.1

601.8 2.9 27.3 2.3 574.5 2.9 29.3 -1.9 132.5 2.6 27.7 73 32.4 10.3 3.6 55 2.8 93.1 10.1 90.9 3 65.5 1.2 24.5 1.3 16.7 -1.5 56.7 -0.7

607.5 3.2 27.6 2.7 579.9 3.2 29.5 -0.9 133.7 3.3 28 73.5 32.8 10.3 2.5 55.3 2.5 95.9 10.5 91.5 2.9 65.8 1.5 24.5 0.8 16.6 -1.7 56.8 -0.2

614.2 3.6 27.8 2.8 586.4 3.7 29.9 1.1 134.7 3.5 28.2 73.9 33.2 10.4 1.9 55.7 2.6 99.7 12.3 91.9 2.3 66.1 1.7 24.5 0.6 16.5 -1.8 57.1 0.6

620.7 4 28.1 3.3 592.6 4 30.5 4.1 135.7 3.3 28.5 74.4 33.5 10.5 2.2 56 2.7 103 13.1 92.3 2 66.4 1.9 24.5 0.4 16.5 -1.8 57.3 1

626.1 4 28.3 3.6 597.8 4.1 31.3 7.1 136.5 3.1 28.7 74.7 33.9 10.6 2.5 56.2 2.2 105.7 13.6 92.4 1.6 66.6 1.7 24.6 0.4 16.4 -1.5 57.5 1.3

632.2 4.1 28.6 3.6 603.6 4.1 32.2 9.3 137.3 2.7 29 75.1 34.2 10.6 2.9 56.2 1.6 108.9 13.6 92.8 1.4 66.8 1.5 24.6 0.5 16.4 -1.2 57.8 1.6

640 4.2 28.8 3.4 611.3 4.3 33.1 10.8 138.1 2.6 29.2 75.5 34.6 10.7 3.1 56.5 1.4 113.5 13.9 93.4 1.6 67 1.3 24.6 0.7 16.4 -1.1 58 1.6

647.4 4.3 29 3.1 618.4 4.4 34.1 11.6 138.7 2.3 29.4 75.8 35 10.7 2.7 56.9 1.6 117.6 14.2 93.9 1.8 67.2 1.2 24.7 0.6 16.3 -1 58.2 1.6

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

579.2 -0.2 26.8 -4.6 552.4 0 29.9 -4.9 128.6 2.1 26.3 71.7 30.8 9.9 -3.1 53.1 -3.1 81.6 -0.1 86.3 3.1 63.9 -0.6 23.8 -0.1 17.4 -0.7 57.8 -1.7

581.5 0.3 26.7 -2.9 554.8 0.5 30.1 -1 129 1.9 26.4 72.3 30.7 9.9 -3.2 53.3 -2.3 82.7 1 87.1 3.2 64.2 0.6 24 0.3 17 -3 57.3 -2.4

585 0.7 26.7 -1.9 558.3 0.9 29.8 0.3 129.2 0.9 26.4 72.7 30.7 10 -2.8 53.5 -0.9 84.6 2.8 88.3 4.1 64.7 0.6 24.2 1 16.9 -3.9 57.1 -2.5

588.8 1.1 26.9 -1.4 561.9 1.2 29.7 -1.7 129.4 0.5 26.7 72.3 31 10.1 0.5 54 1.7 86.8 5.9 88.9 3.9 64.9 0.8 24.3 1.1 16.9 -9.8 56.9 -2.7

47343 47812.7 48030.6 48325.1 48647.4 49075.1 49493.7 50089.9 50734.9 51405.4 51923.5 52520.9 53208.9 53836.7 1343.4 1346.1 1348.8 1351.3 1354 1357 1360.2 1363.4 1366.8 1370.5 1374.7 1379.2 1384.1 1389.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 686.2 687.7 689 689.9 691.2 692.6 693.6 695.1 697.2 698.3 700.1 701.7 703.6 706.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1 0.9 1.2 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.1 9.8 9.5 9.2 9 4052 4152 4380 4857 5423 6182 7055 7857 8839 9361 9792 10343 10778 11138 3665 3817 3953 4293 4676 5236 5908 6656 7443 7857 8156 8555 8827 8895 387 335 427 564 747 946 1148 1200 1396 1504 1636 1788 1951 2242

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

December 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

38.5 6.1 22.4 16.2 36.6 4 32.2 30.5 37.9 6.4

41.8 8.5 23.9 17.9 38.7 5.8 34.1 31.6 39.6 4.2

45.6 9 25.6 20 41 5.9 36.4 32.7 40.8 3.2

50.3 10.2 27.9 22.3 43.9 7.2 39.2 34.3 43.1 5.5

52.7 4.9 29.1 23.6 44.8 2.1 40.5 34.4 44.4 3.1

53.9 2.2 28.9 25 44.4 -1.1 40.9 33.7 44.9 1.3

52.9 -1.8 27.7 25.3 43.5 -2 39.8 32.7 45.6 1.5

54 2.1 27.8 26.3 43.6 0.3 40.3 32.5 46.2 1.2

56.1 3.8 29.1 27 44.7 2.5 41.4 33.1 47.6 3.2

59.1 5.3 31 28.1 46.4 3.8 43.3 34 49.1 3.1

63.1 6.8 33.2 29.8 48.8 5 45.6 35.3 50.6 3.2

68.2 8.1 35.8 32.4 51.7 6 48.6 36.9 52.2 3

633.7 1.4 32.5 -2.2 601.2 1.7 49.2 -1.6 139.2 1.7 30.2 76.5 32.5 10.2 -8.5 60.1 0.5 94.3 -1.2 77.9 4.6 65.9 6.1 28.2 2.3 17 0.6 59.1 3.7

621.4 -1.9 31.9 -1.9 589.5 -1.9 43 -12.6 136.3 -2.1 28.6 75.5 32.3 10.2 0.7 59.7 -0.7 88 -6.6 81.7 4.9 67.3 2.1 26.6 -5.9 17.1 0.6 59.5 0.6

586 -5.7 28.7 -10.2 557.4 -5.5 32.9 -23.4 127.4 -6.6 26.8 70.1 30.4 10.4 1.4 55.5 -7.1 82.3 -6.5 83.6 2.3 64.9 -3.5 24 -9.8 17.5 2.4 58.9 -1.1

581 -0.9 27 -5.8 554 -0.6 30 -8.9 128.6 0.9 26.4 71.8 30.6 10 -3.2 53.4 -3.9 82.1 -0.1 85.9 2.8 64.2 -1.1 23.9 -0.2 17.7 0.8 58.1 -1.4

590.9 1.7 27 -0.2 563.9 1.8 29.6 -1.3 130 1.1 26.9 72.4 31.2 10.1 0.7 54.1 1.4 87.8 6.9 89.4 4 64.9 1.1 24.3 1.4 16.9 -4.7 56.9 -2

611 3.4 27.7 2.8 583.3 3.4 29.8 0.6 134.1 3.2 28.1 73.7 33 10.4 2.6 55.5 2.7 97.9 11.5 91.6 2.6 65.9 1.6 24.5 0.8 16.6 -1.7 57 0.2

636.4 4.2 28.7 3.4 607.8 4.2 32.7 9.7 137.7 2.6 29.1 75.3 34.4 10.7 2.8 56.5 1.7 111.4 13.8 93.1 1.6 66.9 1.4 24.6 0.6 16.4 -1.2 57.9 1.6

667.5 4.9 29.3 2.4 638.2 5 36.4 11.4 140.5 2.1 30 76.6 35.8 10.9 2.7 57.7 2.2 129.6 16.3 95.7 2.8 67.4 0.8 24.8 0.8 16.2 -0.8 58.9 1.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

563.2 0.5 33.3 -3.1 529.9 0.7 36.6 7.4 125 0.4 26.8 68.8 29.4 12.4 -6.1 57.6 -0.1 82.8 -2.9 64.7 1.9 53.3 1.6 25.7 3 18 1.6 53.6 1.7

578.5 2.7 33.3 -0.3 545.2 2.9 40.9 11.5 128.1 2.5 26.9 71.1 30.1 11.6 -6.4 58.4 1.4 82.5 -0.4 67.9 5 56.3 5.5 26.4 2.6 17.8 -1.3 55.4 3.3

603.7 4.4 33.5 0.8 570.1 4.6 45.4 11 132.7 3.6 27.8 73.9 31 11.9 2.4 59.3 1.4 88.1 6.7 71.3 4.9 60.4 7.3 26.8 1.5 17.4 -2.2 57.1 3

624.7 3.5 33.3 -0.8 591.4 3.7 50.1 10.3 136.9 3.1 29.9 74.8 32.2 11.1 -6.8 59.8 0.9 95.4 8.3 74.5 4.5 62.1 2.9 27.6 3.1 16.9 -2.6 57 0

40348.4 42153.4 45039.9 47215.6 47500.5 47269.7 46282.5 47510.9 48519.5 1198.5 1225.8 1252.6 1281.3 1302.6 1317.7 1329.7 1341.8 1352.8 2 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 599.4 607.5 630.3 651.4 671 686.6 686.3 689.8 690.7 0.3 1.4 3.7 3.3 3 2.3 -0.1 0.5 0.1 5 4.6 3.7 3.3 3.8 5.8 10.1 11.5 11.3 15041 17862 23815 16724 10495 7066 4488 4305 5211 12820 13851 18638 12263 7488 5164 3466 4030 4540 2221 4011 5177 4461 3008 1902 1022 275 671

50431 52872.5 55821.5 1365.2 1381.8 1402.1 0.9 1.2 1.5 696 703 712.2 0.8 1 1.3 10.5 9.4 8.4 8278 10513 12148 6966 8608 9370 1312 1904 2778

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

La k e l a n d

P r o fi l e s The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively. Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 583,403 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 276,914 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 13.3% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 36,878 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees • City of Lakeland – 2,600 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Lakeland MSA will show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators, related to the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. Personal income is expected to grow 4.2 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 27.7, one of the lowest of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 41.9. Population growth is expected to be one of the highest, averaging 1.3 percent annually. The real Gross Metro Product will be at a level of $15,741.35 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 11.9 percent, the second highest in the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas.

The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.0 percent average annual growth. This is followed by the Education and Health Services sector averaging a growth rate of 2.2 percent a year and the Federal Government sector at 1.3 percent. The Construction and Mining sector will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.1 percent.

• GEICO – 1,850 employees

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s

• GC Services – 1,000 employees

Polk Schools meet class-Size rules after shuffling teachers

• Watson Clinic – 1,500 employees • Rooms To Go – 900 employees

• FedEx National LTL – 850 employees

• Saddle Creek Corporation – 680 employees • Summit Consulting – 654 employees

Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• Each classroom now meets the required class-size cap according to the new class-size amendment, which allows a maximum of 18 students per class in kindergarten through 3rd grade, 22 students in grades 4 to 8, and 25 students in most high school classes. • The district hired substitute teachers to create co-teaching classrooms and shuffled teachers among schools to meet requirements. • The district spent more than $5 million to meet the class-size requirements for the 92,951 students enrolled in Polk County public schools. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, October 15, 2010

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

La k e l a n d

Decision on Lakeland rail stop may be delayed • There is discussion over the location of the station, whether it should be located between Interstate 4 and Mall Hill Road or near the future site of USF Polytechnic campus. A third site may also be near Clark Road close to the Polk-Hillsborough division line. • Ridership estimates will be completed by February and a location will need to be decided on by March, before the Department of Transportation requests bids to design, build and operate the high-speed rail. • Construction of the 84-mile route is scheduled to being in 2012 and end in 2015. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, November 22, 2010 Polk City will outsource utilities

County impact fee moratorium extended 18 more months • The six-month moratorium imposed on all impact fees in July was to expire Feb. 1 but it has been extended until July 31, 2012. • The county hopes to encourage development since this longer time frame gives developers more time to take advantage of the impact fee moratorium. • Commissioners unanimously voted to extend it rather than resuming collection at a lower rate. The county budget office estimated $12 million to $13 million in lost revenue for the county. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, December 1, 2010 $111.2 Million in Polk County road projects set for next year

• The City Council unanimously voted to outsource the financially troubled water and sewer utilities to Woodard & Curran, a Mainebased engineering firm, for five years.

• The Florida Department of Transportation five-year tentative work program includes major Polk County road projects focused on Bartow, Lakeland and Winter Haven.

• The city’s budget analysis calculated savings of $272,061 per year under the new arrangement, which was preferred to a contract with the Florida Governmental Utility Authority which showed savings of $84,457.

• The main project, expected to cost $24.7 million, is the first phase of a truck route from U.S. 17 to U.S. 98. State Road 60 in Bartow will also see more intersection improvements.

• The city will pay Woodard $478,300 a year. The company has also managed the water and sewer utilities in Inverness for the past two years. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, November 29, 2010

• Other projects include studies for future road improvements and lighting along parts of SR 60, SR 37, and SR 559. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, December 8, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

La k e l a n d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

2.5

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 9000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income

Lakeland Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1.5

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

La k e l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

December 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

19.8 3.1 7.9 11.9 16 1.6 33.6 27.1 40.3 1.8

20 3.2 7.9 12 16.1 1.9 33.8 27.1 40.6 1.3

20.2 3.6 8 12.1 16.2 2.5 34 27.3 40.9 2.8

20.4 3.4 8.1 12.2 16.3 2.1 34.2 27.4 41.2 3.1

20.6 3.8 8.2 12.3 16.4 2.4 34.5 27.5 41.4 2.9

20.8 3.9 8.3 12.4 16.5 2.6 34.7 27.5 41.7 2.8

21 3.9 8.4 12.5 16.6 2.6 34.9 27.6 42 2.7

21.3 4.4 8.5 12.7 16.7 2.9 35.3 27.8 42.3 2.7

21.6 5 8.7 12.9 16.9 3.4 35.6 28 42.5 2.6

21.9 5.5 8.8 13.1 17.1 3.9 36 28.1 42.8 2.7

22.2 5.7 8.9 13.3 17.3 4.1 36.3 28.2 43.2 2.7

22.5 5.8 9.1 13.4 17.4 4 36.6 28.4 43.5 2.8

22.8 5.7 9.2 13.6 17.6 3.9 36.9 28.5 43.7 2.8

23.1 5.6 9.3 13.8 17.8 3.8 37.3 28.6 44 2.8

197.5 1.7 14.2 0.6 183.4 1.8 10.5 -2.1 43.8 0.8 9 23.5 11.6 1.8 1.2 11.6 3.1 29.8 7 30.9 3.5 16.8 1.8 8.4 1.1 1.5 -4.6 28.3 -2

198.6 2 14.2 1.2 184.4 2.1 10.5 -3.2 44.1 1.4 9.1 23.6 11.8 1.8 2.1 11.7 2.9 30.3 7.8 31.1 3.3 16.8 1.6 8.4 0.8 1.5 -1.7 28.3 -1.2

199.6 2.1 14.3 2 185.3 2.1 10.4 -2.4 44.4 2.1 9.2 23.7 11.9 1.8 3.1 11.8 3.1 30.7 7.1 31.1 2.3 16.9 1 8.4 0.5 1.4 -2 28.3 -0.8

201.1 2.3 14.5 2.7 186.7 2.3 10.5 -1.5 44.9 3 9.3 23.8 12.1 1.8 2.7 11.8 2.4 31.3 7 31.3 2 16.9 1 8.3 0 1.4 -2.3 28.4 -0.3

202.8 2.7 14.6 3 188.2 2.6 10.6 0.5 45.2 3.2 9.4 23.9 12.3 1.9 2.6 11.9 2.5 32.2 7.9 31.3 1.3 17 1.2 8.3 -0.1 1.4 -2.1 28.5 0.4

204.5 3 14.7 3.5 189.8 2.9 10.8 3.1 45.5 3.2 9.5 24.1 12.4 1.9 3.2 12 2.5 32.9 8.6 31.4 0.9 17 1.3 8.3 -0.3 1.4 -1.6 28.6 0.8

205.9 3.1 14.9 3.7 191 3.1 11.1 6.5 45.8 3 9.6 24.2 12.5 1.9 3.5 12 1.8 33.5 9.2 31.3 0.5 17 0.9 8.4 -0.2 1.4 -1.3 28.6 1.1

207.5 3.2 15 3.7 192.5 3.1 11.3 8.5 46.1 2.7 9.7 24.3 12.6 1.9 3.9 12 1.3 34.2 9.2 31.4 0.5 17 0.6 8.3 -0.1 1.4 -1.2 28.8 1.4

209.4 3.2 15.1 3.4 194.3 3.2 11.6 10 46.4 2.6 9.8 24.5 12.8 1.9 3.9 12.1 1.2 35.2 9.3 31.5 0.6 17 0.3 8.3 -0.1 1.4 -1.3 28.9 1.5

211.2 3.3 15.2 3.1 196 3.3 12 10.8 46.6 2.3 9.9 24.6 12.9 1.9 3.4 12.1 1.3 36 9.5 31.6 0.7 17.1 0.2 8.3 -0.2 1.4 -1.4 29 1.5

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

194.2 -0.5 14.1 -3.7 180.1 -0.2 10.8 -4.9 43.4 -2.1 8.9 23.2 11.4 1.8 -5.3 11.3 -3.1 27.8 -0.4 29.8 3.7 16.5 1.1 8.3 0 1.5 15.1 28.9 0.7

194.7 0.3 14.1 -1.4 180.6 0.4 10.8 -2.2 43.5 -0.4 8.9 23.5 11.4 1.8 -4.2 11.4 -0.7 28.1 0.9 30.1 3.1 16.5 0.8 8.3 1.3 1.5 8.4 28.7 -0.5

195.6 1.1 14.1 -1 181.5 1.2 10.7 -2.1 43.5 -0.4 8.8 23.7 11.4 1.8 -1.3 11.4 1 28.7 3.8 30.4 3 16.7 3.2 8.3 0.8 1.5 11.6 28.6 -0.7

196.6 0.8 14.1 -0.7 182.5 1 10.6 -2.4 43.6 0 8.9 23.5 11.5 1.8 -0.7 11.6 2.5 29.3 6.2 30.6 2.5 16.8 2.8 8.3 0 1.5 -32.6 28.5 -1.7

14543.9 14664.4 14724.8 14800.3 590.1 591.8 593.5 595 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 274.2 274.9 274.9 274.8 0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.3 1370 1455 1650 1938 1327 1463 1645 1904 43 -8 5 34

14883 14995.7 15094.7 15261.6 15435.8 15621.5 596.7 598.5 600.6 603 605.5 608.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 274.9 275 275.2 275.1 275 274.7 0.2 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 12.3 12.2 12.2 12 11.7 11.5 2287 2700 3160 3674 4192 4471 2226 2597 3006 3502 3986 4253 61 103 154 172 206 218

15760 15929.2 16111.1 16279.6 611.3 614.4 617.6 620.8 1.8 1.9 2 2 274.5 274.7 275 275.4 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.2 11.3 10.9 10.6 10.3 4668 4994 5263 5396 4430 4730 4954 5013 238 264 310 383

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

December 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

13.3 6 6.2 7.1 12.7 3.9 26.2 24.8 33.7 4.1

14.8 10.6 6.7 8.1 13.6 7.8 28.2 26.1 34.2 1.6

16.3 10.6 7.4 8.9 14.7 7.4 30.2 27.1 35.6 4.1

17.7 8.2 7.9 9.7 15.4 5.3 31.6 27.6 37.3 4.8

18.8 6.3 8.1 10.7 16 3.4 32.7 27.8 38 1.8

19.4 3.4 8.1 11.3 16 0.1 33.4 27.5 38.5 1.5

19.2 -0.9 7.8 11.5 15.8 -1.1 32.9 27.1 39.3 1.8

19.7 2.6 7.8 11.9 15.9 0.8 33.5 27.1 40.1 2.3

20.5 3.7 8.2 12.3 16.3 2.4 34.3 27.4 41.3 2.9

21.4 4.7 8.6 12.8 16.8 3.2 35.5 27.9 42.4 2.7

22.7 5.7 9.1 13.5 17.5 4 36.8 28.4 43.6 2.8

24.3 7.1 9.7 14.5 18.4 5 38.6 29.2 44.8 2.7

211.7 0.1 17.2 -3.5 194.5 0.4 15.8 -6.5 49 0.2 10.1 26.4 12.5 2.2 -7.8 11.8 2.5 32 -2.6 28 5.2 17.4 2.9 9 -5.3 1.4 1.2 27.9 4.3

208.3 -1.6 16.3 -5.2 191.9 -1.3 13.8 -12.2 47.8 -2.5 9.6 26.1 12.1 2.1 -3.5 12.2 2.8 31.3 -2.4 29.1 4 17.4 -0.5 8.6 -4.1 1.4 0 28.3 1.7

197.2 -5.3 14.8 -9.3 182.4 -5 11.7 -15.8 44.7 -6.4 9.1 24.1 11.6 1.9 -8.4 11.8 -3.3 28.7 -8.2 28.8 -0.9 16.6 -4.5 8.3 -4.2 1.4 -1.3 28.6 1

194.3 -1.5 14.1 -4.8 180.2 -1.2 10.8 -7 43.6 -2.6 8.9 23.4 11.3 1.8 -6.2 11.3 -4.1 27.8 -3.1 29.8 3.4 16.4 -1.1 8.3 0.5 1.6 18.5 28.8 0.7

197.1 1.4 14.1 0 182.9 1.5 10.6 -2.4 43.7 0.4 9 23.6 11.6 1.8 0.3 11.6 2.4 29.5 6.2 30.7 3.1 16.8 2.3 8.4 0.7 1.5 -10 28.4 -1.4

202 2.5 14.5 2.8 187.5 2.5 10.6 -0.1 45 2.9 9.4 23.9 12.2 1.9 2.9 11.9 2.6 31.8 7.7 31.3 1.6 16.9 1.1 8.4 0 1.4 -2 28.4 0

208.5 3.2 15 3.4 193.4 3.2 11.5 9 46.2 2.7 9.7 24.4 12.7 1.9 3.7 12 1.4 34.7 9.3 31.4 0.6 17 0.5 8.3 -0.1 1.4 -1.3 28.8 1.3

216.1 3.6 15.4 2.2 200.7 3.8 12.8 10.8 47.2 2 10.1 24.8 13.3 2 3.1 12.3 1.8 38.5 11 32.1 2 17 -0.2 8.3 0 1.4 -1.2 29.2 1.4

14424 14416.8 14415.8 14085.9 559.3 573.8 580.4 584 3.4 2.6 1.2 0.6 261.6 266.7 272.9 275.4 2.2 1.9 2.3 0.9 3.6 4.4 6.6 11.4 9528 4389 3155 1221 8288 4007 2359 1219 1240 381 796 2

14461 589.4 0.9 276 0.2 12.7 1440 1406 35

14851 15353.4 595.9 604.3 1.1 1.4 274.9 275 -0.4 0 12.3 11.8 2144 3874 2093 3687 51 188

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

183.7 1 18.1 -1.9 165.6 1.4 12.9 -5.1 42.1 -4.2 9.1 22.5 10.5 2.2 -7.9 11 2 25.4 23.3 22.9 1.7 15 -5.4 7.5 0.9 1.4 -3 25.3 1.6

194.6 5.9 18.2 0.7 176.4 6.5 14.4 11.4 43.9 4.3 9.4 23.5 11 2.2 -1.1 10.9 -1 30.7 20.8 24.1 5.3 15.3 2.2 8 7.6 1.3 -2.4 25.5 1

207.1 6.4 18.3 0.3 188.8 7 16.2 12.6 47.6 8.4 10.3 25.3 12.1 2.3 3 11.1 1.8 33.2 8.2 25.6 6.1 16.5 7.7 9 11.9 1.4 4.4 26 2

11656.1 12565.3 13791.8 509.9 523.5 541.1 2 2.7 3.4 239.7 247.4 256.1 0.7 3.2 3.5 5.5 4.9 4 6787 9091 12867 6165 8288 11707 622 803 1161

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

211.6 2.2 17.9 -2.2 193.7 2.6 16.9 4.1 48.9 2.8 10.4 26.1 12.5 2.3 2.9 11.6 4.1 32.9 -0.9 26.6 4.2 17 2.7 9.5 5.5 1.4 -0.6 26.7 2.6

16020 16813.8 616 628.8 1.9 2.1 274.9 276 0 0.4 10.8 9.7 5080 5766 4782 5231 298 535

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

P r o fi l e s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University. QUICK FACTS:

• Metro area population estimate of 5,547,051 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,500,625 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,766,476 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,279,950 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,901,358 in September 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 12.1% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 349,978 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Miami-Dade County Public Schools – 54,861 employees • Federal Government – 36,600 employees • Florida State Government – 33,500 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,000 employees • University of Miami – 12,765 employees • Publix Super Markets – 11,760 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 11,615 employees • Jackson Health System – 10,500 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees • Miami-Dade College – 6,500 employees Sources: The Beacon Council, Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Enterprise Florida

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 3.8 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 35.6, is the second highest in the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. Average annual wage growth will be among the highest at 2.6 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 51.4. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 0.8 percent each year. The area has the highest real Gross Metro Product of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas, at $220,016.83 (Mill). Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.7 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 10.9 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Professional and Business Services sector at 7.1 percent annually, followed by Education-Health Services at 2.2 percent each year and Trade, Transportation and Utilities at 1.4 percent. The Financial, Information, State and Local Government, Construction and Mining, and Federal Government sectors are all expected to decline with annual growth rates of -0.3, -0.4, -0.6, -0.8, and -1.9 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Miami Dade College receives two grants • Miami Dade College’s Wolfson campus received $2.4 million from the Hispanic Serving Institutions program through the U.S. Department of Education. The money is to be used to serve and attract Hispanic and lowincome students. • The Homestead and North campuses received $3 million for the Student Support Services Program’s TRIO program. This program helps first generation college students as well as lowincome and disabled students. Source: South Florida Business Journal, October 20, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

Cruise traffic soars at Port of Miami • With the arrival of the Norwegian Epic, the Port of Miami has broken its own record for cruise traffic in a year. This is the third year in a row in which Miami has topped the international passenger traffic numbers for cruises. • This past year, cruise passengers increased by 34,953 over last fiscal year, with the numbers up 10 percent in the July-September time period that coincides with the arrival of the Epic. Source: South Florida Business Journal, October 20, 2010 Kennedy enters S. Fla. with $53.1M buy • Kennedy Associates, a Seattle commercial property investor has purchased the Hillsboro Bay club, a garden-style apartment complex, for $53.1 million. This is the firm’s first entrance into the South Florida housing market. • The complex sits on 21 acres and has 366 units located in Coconut Creek. • The property was sold by Laramar Group, a Chicago-based company. Source: South Florida Business Journal, October 22, 2010 Hundreds of South Florida businesses support cruise economy • The Port of Miami’s recent announcement that it broke the world record for cruise traffic is an economic blessing for more than just the cruise business. Supporting businesses made almost $6 billion in 2009. • In 2008, the value of cruise operations in the Port of Miami was estimated to be about $1.95 billion. The figure included several other services such as hotels and fuel. Source: Miami Herald, November 7, 2010

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

Startup City Labs gets nearly $1M military contract • A nearly $1 million contract was awarded to City Labs by the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory. • City Labs makes long-life Tritium batteries for small electronics. • The company was a startup from Florida International University and is currently located in the Carrie P. Meek Business Center. Source: South Florida Business Journal, December 3, 2010

Mia m i â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F o r t Lau d e r d a l e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Mia m i B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.2

1.4

1.6

240000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

200000.0 180000.0 160000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0 2000.0 1900.0

Miami Real Gross Metro Product

140000.0

Miami Payroll Employment 2500.0

0.8

220000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Miami Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

December 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

240.9 2.3 108 132.8 194.5 0.9 43 34.7 49.3 1.1

242.9 2.8 109.4 133.5 195.2 1.5 43.2 34.7 49.7 0.9

245.1 3 110.9 134.2 196.3 2 43.5 34.9 50.1 2.6

247.1 3.1 112.2 134.9 197.5 1.8 43.8 35 50.4 3.1

249 3.4 113.6 135.4 198.4 2 44 35.1 50.8 3.1

251.2 3.4 115.1 136.1 199.4 2.2 44.3 35.2 51.2 3

253.7 3.5 116.7 137 200.6 2.2 44.7 35.4 51.6 2.9

256.8 4 118.4 138.5 202.4 2.5 45.2 35.6 51.9 2.9

260.6 4.7 120.2 140.4 204.6 3.1 45.8 35.9 52.2 2.8

264.5 5.3 122.1 142.3 206.7 3.7 46.3 36.2 52.6 2.9

268.1 5.7 124.1 144.1 208.6 4 46.9 36.5 53.1 2.9

272.2 6 125.9 146.3 210.9 4.2 47.5 36.8 53.5 3

276.1 5.9 128.1 148 213.1 4.2 48.1 37.1 53.8 3

280.2 5.9 130.1 150.1 215.2 4.1 48.7 37.4 54.2 3

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2180.3 -0.2 75.4 -3.3 2104.9 -0.1 87.7 -11.1 505.6 1 135 282.3 88.9 41 -6.7 145.7 -4.6 328.7 2.1 339.3 2.7 247 0.5 92.8 -0.4 34.6 2 282.5 -1.1

2188.6 0.8 75.2 -1.2 2113.4 0.9 88.7 -5 507.4 2.2 135.4 284.9 88.7 41.2 -4.2 146.5 -1.9 332.6 2.8 342.5 2.9 248.2 1.9 93.3 0.6 33 -2.9 279.9 -2

2200.5 1.5 75 -0.7 2125.4 1.5 87.9 -2.7 507.7 1.4 135.4 286.6 88.3 41.3 -1.5 146.7 -1.4 339 4.6 346.8 3.6 250.5 3.8 93.6 2 33 -3.1 278.9 -2.2

2211.7 1.5 75.2 -1.2 2136.5 1.6 87.8 -2.7 508.2 1 136.8 284.8 89.1 41.8 1.3 148.1 1.4 346.8 6.3 348.5 3.7 250.9 3.3 93.8 1.2 32.9 -18.9 277.8 -2.3

2223.1 2 75.5 0.2 2147.5 2 87.2 -0.6 510.5 1 138.7 284.1 90.3 42.2 2.9 148.7 2.1 353.8 7.6 350.9 3.4 251.2 1.7 93.9 1.2 32.8 -5.3 276.4 -2.1

2236.5 2.2 75.8 0.8 2160.8 2.2 86.6 -2.3 514.2 1.4 140.3 285.3 91.4 42.5 3.3 149.2 1.8 361.3 8.6 352.7 3 251.6 1.4 94.1 0.8 32.5 -1.5 275.9 -1.4

2251 2.3 76.2 1.6 2174.8 2.3 86.3 -1.8 518.3 2.1 141.6 286.7 92.8 42.9 3.8 150.1 2.3 368 8.5 354 2.1 252.9 1 94.2 0.6 32.3 -2 275.8 -1.1

2268.2 2.6 76.9 2.2 2191.4 2.6 86.8 -1.1 522.3 2.8 142.9 288.6 93.9 43 2.8 150.8 1.8 377.1 8.7 355.5 2 253.8 1.2 94 0.2 32.1 -2.4 276 -0.6

2288.3 2.9 77.5 2.6 2210.8 2.9 88.1 1 525.3 2.9 143.8 289.7 94.9 43.1 2.1 151.6 2 389.4 10.1 356.3 1.5 254.5 1.3 94 0.1 32 -2.6 276.6 0.1

2308.5 3.2 78.1 3.1 2230.3 3.2 90.4 4.3 528.5 2.8 145.1 291 95.7 43.4 2.2 152.2 2 399.9 10.7 357.5 1.4 255.2 1.4 94.1 0 31.9 -2 277.3 0.5

2324.7 3.3 78.8 3.3 2245.9 3.3 93.1 7.8 531 2.5 146.2 291.9 96.6 43.9 2.2 152.3 1.5 408.5 11 357.4 1 255.7 1.1 94.3 0 31.8 -1.6 278 0.8

2342.8 3.3 79.4 3.3 2263.3 3.3 96 10.6 533 2.1 147.1 292.8 97.3 44 2.4 152.2 1 418.8 11 358.7 0.9 255.9 0.8 94.2 0.2 31.7 -1.4 278.9 1

2366.8 3.4 79.8 3.1 2287 3.4 99.2 12.6 535.5 1.9 148.3 294.2 98.4 44.1 2.4 152.8 0.8 433.4 11.3 360.4 1.2 256.1 0.7 94.3 0.3 31.5 -1.4 279.6 1.1

2388.7 3.5 80.3 2.8 2308.5 3.5 102.8 13.7 537 1.6 149.1 294.9 99.4 44.3 1.9 153.6 0.9 446.1 11.6 362.1 1.3 256.6 0.5 94.4 0.3 31.4 -1.4 280.2 1.1

210494 5607.1 0.9 2882.7 1.3 11.5 7251 4407 2844

212458 5619 0.9 2892.7 1.4 11.7 6396 4675 1721

213361 5631 0.9 2899.2 0.7 11.6 6990 5100 1890

214412 5642.6 0.8 2904.7 0.4 11.5 8301 5773 2528

215569 5654 0.8 2909.4 0.9 11.4 9544 6467 3077

217202 5664.8 0.8 2915.2 0.8 11.3 11116 7118 3998

218821 5675.3 0.8 2918.5 0.7 11.1 12881 8115 4766

221168 5685.6 0.8 2923.1 0.6 10.9 14404 9344 5059

223665 5695.3 0.7 2929.9 0.7 10.6 16946 11208 5738

226306 5706.3 0.7 2932.4 0.6 10.4 18923 12800 6122

228258 5717.7 0.7 2936.2 0.6 10 20833 14102 6731

230553 5729.4 0.8 2938.7 0.5 9.7 22884 15475 7409

233181 5741.9 0.8 2941.9 0.4 9.5 24807 16528 8279

235571 5755.6 0.9 2945.5 0.4 9.2 26588 16897 9691

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

December 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

179.2 2.8 89.3 89.9 170.1 0.8 33.9 32.1 40.4 4

194.9 8.7 95.4 99.5 180.1 5.9 36.3 33.5 42.1 4.2

210.6 8.1 103.3 107.3 189.1 4.9 38.7 34.7 43.9 4.4

228.8 8.7 110.2 118.7 199.9 5.8 41.9 36.6 45.8 4.1

237.1 3.6 114.3 122.8 201.6 0.8 43.3 36.8 47 2.8

242.6 2.3 113.4 129.2 199.7 -1 44 36.3 47.9 1.8

236.3 -2.6 107.6 128.7 194.1 -2.8 42.5 35 48.6 1.3

240.3 1.7 107.8 132.5 194.1 0 42.9 34.6 49.2 1.3

248.1 3.2 112.9 135.1 197.9 2 43.9 35 50.6 3

258.9 4.4 119.4 139.6 203.6 2.9 45.5 35.8 52.1 2.9

274.2 5.9 127.1 147.1 212 4.1 47.8 37 53.6 3

294.5 7.4 136.1 158.4 223.3 5.3 50.8 38.5 55.2 3

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2198.1 0.2 103.4 -8 2094.7 0.6 122.4 1.2 511.4 -1.1 134.3 283.2 93.9 56.7 -7 164.3 1 319.3 -0.3 284 3.4 229.4 2 95.8 1.9 34.1 6.2 277.4 1

2253.1 2.5 100.8 -2.5 2152.3 2.7 131.5 7.5 517.9 1.3 138.7 286.1 93.2 55.8 -1.6 170 3.5 331.7 3.9 293.5 3.4 240.2 4.7 97.7 2 34.2 0.4 279.8 0.9

2336.8 3.7 101.1 0.3 2235.7 3.9 147.4 12.1 531 2.5 141.2 294.5 95.3 55.1 -1.2 178.2 4.8 357.2 7.7 301.5 2.7 247.5 3 99 1.3 34.5 1 284.3 1.6

2393.6 2.4 100.6 -0.6 2293 2.6 164.3 11.5 544.2 2.5 144.6 303.9 95.7 52.4 -4.9 183.4 2.9 368.7 3.2 307.9 2.1 251.6 1.6 99.3 0.3 34 -1.4 287.1 1

2416 0.9 98.6 -2 2317.4 1.1 161.1 -1.9 550.5 1.1 147.6 306.4 96.4 51.2 -2.4 181.3 -1.2 371 0.6 318.8 3.5 257.8 2.5 100.8 1.5 34 -0.2 291.1 1.4

2352.8 -2.6 92.5 -6.2 2260.3 -2.5 134.9 -16.2 541.6 -1.6 144.4 301.3 96 49.7 -2.9 170.8 -5.8 354.2 -4.5 326.2 2.3 256.9 -0.3 100.9 0.1 33.8 -0.4 291.2 0

2203.1 -6.4 79.7 -13.9 2123.4 -6.1 102.4 -24.1 505.4 -6.7 134.6 280.8 90 44.9 -9.8 154.4 -9.6 325.6 -8.1 330.2 1.2 247.1 -3.8 93.5 -7.3 34.1 0.9 285.9 -1.8

2179.3 -1.1 75.6 -5.1 2103.7 -0.9 89.2 -12.8 504.2 -0.2 134.4 281.6 88.7 41.4 -7.8 146.8 -4.9 328 0.7 338.2 2.4 244.8 -0.9 92.6 -0.9 35.6 4.2 283 -1

2217.9 1.8 75.4 -0.2 2142.6 1.8 87.4 -2.1 510.2 1.2 137.8 285.2 89.8 42 1.5 148.2 0.9 350.2 6.8 349.7 3.4 251 2.5 93.8 1.3 32.8 -7.8 277.3 -2

2279 2.8 77.2 2.4 2201.8 2.8 87.9 0.6 523.6 2.6 143.4 289 94.3 43.1 2.7 151.2 2 383.6 9.5 355.8 1.7 254.1 1.2 94.1 0.2 32.1 -2.3 276.5 -0.3

2355.7 3.4 79.6 3.1 2276.2 3.4 97.7 11.2 534.1 2 147.7 293.4 97.9 44.1 2.2 152.7 1 426.7 11.2 359.6 1.1 256.1 0.8 94.3 0.2 31.6 -1.5 279.2 1

2450.6 4 81.1 1.9 2369.5 4.1 111.4 13.9 541.9 1.5 151.6 297 101.7 44.8 1.6 155 1.5 483.4 13.3 367.7 2.2 256.5 0.2 94.8 0.6 31.3 -1.1 282.7 1.3

185435 5291.6 1.4 2573.5 0.4 5.7 37881 23579 14302

193656 5372.4 1.5 2619.1 1.8 5.1 40647 23667 16979

206587 5442.4 1.3 2673.4 2.1 4.2 41642 22542 19100

214098 5464.9 0.4 2742 2.6 3.6 32730 15769 16961

215118 5472.1 0.1 2807.3 2.4 4.1 14816 7602 7215

213347 5507.9 0.7 2852.3 1.6 6.1 7700 3526 4174

205817 5552.9 0.8 2851 0 10.2 3635 2247 1388

210550 5600.9 0.9 2887 1.3 11.6 6034 4048 1986

215136 5648.1 0.8 2907.1 0.7 11.5 8988 6115 2873

222490 5690.6 0.8 2926 0.6 10.8 15788 10367 5421

231891 5736.1 0.8 2940.6 0.5 9.6 23778 15751 8027

243345 5795.5 1 2952.8 0.4 8.6 30231 17977 12254

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.” Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 318,537 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 141,608 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 13.3% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 18,875 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• NCH Healthcare System – 5000 employees

• Collier county School District – 4728 employees • Publix supermarket – 3246 employees • Marriott Hotels – 2328 employees

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - 1715 employees

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1029 employees • Winn Dixie Stores, Inc – 1014 employees • Home Depot – 1012 employees

Source: Economic Development Council of Collier County

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Naples–Marco Island MSA is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area will show a modest personal income growth of 4.3 percent. Per capita income level, which is expected to be 50.0, is the highest of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. Average annual wage will be the third highest at a level of 49.5. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 2.4 percent. Population growth will average 1.1 percent, one of the highest of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas and the real Gross Metro Product will be $13,153.78 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 2.2 percent each year, the second highest of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 11.4 percent.

The Professional and Business Services sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 6.4 percent each year. The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector follows with a growth rate of 3.0 percent. The State and Local Government sector is expected to decline this quarter at -0.4 percent average annual growth.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s City of Naples ponders year-round advertising campaign • Naples City Council members discussed investing additional funds to develop year-round marketing. The county moved one million dollars from beach renourishment funds to the marketing finances. • Officials say the money would be used to attract new and repeat visitors. The county’s tourism director suggested a 5% tourist tax to increase funds. • The tourism development committee already dedicates $2 million to advertising. Source: Naples News, October 18, 2010

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

Trash talk: Collier may burn some of its garbage in Lee incinerator • Lee County and Collier County officials met to discuss burning a portion of Collier’s trash in Lee’s incinerator. There were also talks of using Lee’s new single stream recycling center. • No formal negotiations have been made, but a unanimous approval by Lee County could lead to an agreement. Both governments must support the deal before any action can take place. • Lee County’s incinerator has been taking in 600K tons of trash per year, only 80% of its potential. • Collier County already sends more than 200,000 tons to its 300-acre landfill. The county is seeking approval from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection to increase the height of the land fill. Source: Naples News, October 26, 2010 Marco city manager talks payrolls, cutting costs and more • Jim Riviere, Marco City Manager, is planning on cutting the costs of the Marco City Government. • His first priority is to cut out paper intensive timekeeping systems. This would eliminate the cost of paper and those who process paper. • Riviere says that he is analyzing the cost and uses of overtime wages. He also plans on pushing some projects into the future, such as a $300,000 Lee Plummer Park. He says there are more urgent projects, like Smokehouse Bridge and Hernando Bridge.

Collier County leaders discuss how to maintain top spot as state’s healthiest place to live • NCH Downtown Naples Hospital hosted a meeting for more than one hundred community members to discuss strategies to keep the number one ranking assigned by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. • CEOs, law enforcement, health care, education and social service members came up with ideas on how to keep residents healthy. Subjects varied from curbing teenage drinking to dedicating more zones to be smoke-free. Source: Marco Eagle, November 5, 2010 Building Again: Stock Development announces construction of 150-home neighborhood in Lely • Stock Development just announced a new plan to build a new neighborhood in East Naples. The housing development is to be built in Lely Resort called Lakoya. • Phase 1, beginning in January, will include 140 homes. Local real estate experts say this development is evidence of shifting trends in the Collier County area. Lakoya is 242 acres and is predicted to have 372 homes when completed. • This small community has sold more than 140 homes, averaging $430,000 per home. Lakoya is attractive to snow birds with its elaborate lakes and numerous amenities such as golf courses, fitness centers, and more. Source: Naples News, November 9, 2010

Source: Marco Eagle, November 2, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ma r c o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

16000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

10000.0 8000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

6000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 24.0%

(percent change year ago)

20.0% 16.0%

120.0

12.0%

110.0

8.0%

100.0

4.0%

90.0

1.4

12000.0

130.0

80.0

1.2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment 140.0

14000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

0.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

-4.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ma r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

December 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

19.2 2.1 5.1 14.1 15.5 0.7 59.9 48.3 46.9 0.7

19.5 4.2 5.2 14.2 15.6 2.9 60.4 48.5 47.3 1.4

19.7 4.1 5.3 14.4 15.8 3 60.9 48.8 47.7 3

19.9 4.1 5.4 14.5 15.9 2.8 61.5 49.1 48.1 3.4

20.1 4.4 5.5 14.6 16 3 61.9 49.3 48.5 3.4

20.3 4.2 5.5 14.7 16.1 3 62.4 49.5 48.9 3.2

20.5 4.2 5.6 14.9 16.2 2.9 62.9 49.7 49.3 3.2

20.8 4.7 5.7 15.1 16.4 3.2 63.7 50.2 49.6 3.1

21.2 5.5 5.8 15.4 16.6 4 64.6 50.7 50 3.1

21.6 6.4 5.9 15.6 16.9 4.7 65.5 51.2 50.4 3.1

21.9 6.9 6 15.9 17 5.1 66.3 51.6 50.8 3.2

22.3 7 6.2 16.1 17.3 5.3 67.1 52 51.2 3.3

22.7 6.9 6.3 16.4 17.5 5.1 67.9 52.4 51.6 3.2

23.1 6.9 6.4 16.7 17.7 5.1 68.8 52.9 52 3.2

112.2 2.9 2.6 1.4 109.6 3 9.3 0.1 22.4 1.5 3.2 17.9 1.6 1.6 2.3 6.6 5.2 12 8.1 17.4 4.9 21.2 3.5 6.1 3 0.7 -3.6 12.2 -1.1

112.9 2.8 2.6 1.9 110.3 2.9 9.2 -2.3 22.6 1.7 3.2 18 1.6 1.6 3.1 6.7 4.6 12.3 9.2 17.5 4.5 21.3 3.2 6.2 2.6 0.7 -0.8 12.2 -0.4

113.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 111 2.6 9.2 -2.1 22.8 2.1 3.2 18.2 1.6 1.6 4 6.8 5.2 12.5 8.7 17.6 3 21.4 2.4 6.2 2.3 0.7 -0.9 12.2 -0.1

114.6 2.8 2.7 3.3 112 2.8 9.2 -2 23 3.2 3.3 18.4 1.7 1.6 4 6.8 4.2 12.8 8.9 17.7 2.8 21.6 2.4 6.2 1.8 0.7 -1.2 12.3 0.5

115.8 3.2 2.7 3.6 113.1 3.2 9.3 0.1 23.2 3.6 3.3 18.5 1.7 1.7 4 6.9 4.2 13.3 10.3 17.7 2 21.7 2.5 6.2 1.7 0.7 -1 12.4 1.3

117.1 3.7 2.7 3.9 114.3 3.7 9.6 3.5 23.4 3.7 3.4 18.6 1.7 1.7 4.5 7 4.2 13.7 11.2 17.8 1.7 21.8 2.6 6.3 1.5 0.7 -0.5 12.4 1.9

118.1 4 2.7 4.1 115.4 4 9.9 8 23.6 3.5 3.4 18.8 1.7 1.7 4.8 7 3.6 14 11.9 17.8 1.5 21.9 2.1 6.3 1.5 0.7 -0.2 12.5 2.3

119.5 4.2 2.8 4 116.7 4.2 10.2 11.4 23.8 3.3 3.5 18.9 1.7 1.7 5 7.1 3.3 14.4 11.9 18 1.5 22 1.8 6.3 1.6 0.7 -0.1 12.6 2.7

121.1 4.5 2.8 3.7 118.3 4.6 10.6 14.1 24 3.4 3.5 19.2 1.8 1.7 5 7.1 3.4 14.9 12.1 18.1 2 22.1 1.6 6.3 1.7 0.7 -0.1 12.7 2.9

122.6 4.8 2.8 3.4 119.8 4.8 11.1 15.9 24.2 3.2 3.6 19.3 1.8 1.7 4.4 7.2 3.6 15.3 12.3 18.2 2.3 22.2 1.5 6.4 1.6 0.7 -0.2 12.8 3

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

109 -0.1 2.6 -0.8 106.4 0 9.3 -7.6 22.1 6.1 3 17.5 1.5 1.6 -2.8 6.3 -2.1 11.1 -2.4 16.6 0.6 20.5 0.5 5.9 4.4 0.7 10.1 12.3 -4.6

109.8 1.5 2.6 -0.6 107.2 1.6 9.4 -1.9 22.2 4.9 3.1 17.8 1.5 1.6 -3.2 6.4 0.4 11.3 -0.5 16.8 1.9 20.6 2.2 6 7.6 0.7 3.7 12.3 -2.6

12430.2 12585.4 321.6 322.2 0.8 0.7 142.3 143.8 0 0.3 11.4 11.4 1405 1577 820 901 585 676

110.7 2.6 2.6 -2.1 108.2 2.7 9.4 -1.5 22.3 3.9 3.1 18 1.5 1.6 -2.2 6.4 0.5 11.5 4 17.1 4.1 20.9 4.7 6.1 9.4 0.7 8.8 12.3 -3.3

111.5 2.6 2.6 -2.1 108.9 2.8 9.4 -1.8 22.3 2.6 3.1 17.9 1.6 1.6 -0.4 6.6 3.6 11.8 6.3 17.2 4.1 21.1 5.4 6.1 7.5 0.7 -27.9 12.2 -2.7

12676 12774.2 12872.1 12990.5 322.9 323.6 324.4 325.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 145.8 147.8 149.9 152 0.9 2.7 5.4 5.7 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.6 1576 1743 1960 2227 998 1145 1330 1532 578 599 630 696

13094 13262.6 326.2 327.1 1 1.1 154.3 155.7 5.8 5.3 11.6 11.4 2482 2684 1755 1989 727 695

13444 13641.9 13800.8 13998.5 328.1 329.3 330.6 332.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 157.1 158.4 159.7 160.5 4.8 4.2 3.5 3.1 11.2 11 10.8 10.4 2883 3083 3296 3579 2193 2332 2443 2619 690 751 853 960

14217 14424.8 333.7 335.3 1.7 1.8 161.3 162.1 2.7 2.4 10.2 9.8 3826 4069 2749 2802 1077 1267

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ma r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

December 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

12.7 6.3 4.5 8.1 12 4.2 44.2 42 40.3 8.3

15.2 19.8 5 10.2 14 16.7 51.1 47.2 42 4.2

16.8 10.6 5.6 11.2 15.1 7.3 54.7 49.1 44.2 5.1

19.1 14 6 13.1 16.7 11 61.4 53.6 45 1.8

20.4 6.5 6.1 14.2 17.3 3.7 64.9 55.2 47.1 4.6

20.4 0 5.7 14.7 16.8 -3.2 64.5 53.1 46.5 -1.3

19 -6.6 5.2 13.9 15.6 -6.7 59.7 49.1 46.4 -0.1

19.2 0.7 5.1 14.1 15.5 -1 59.7 48.2 46.8 0.8

20 4.2 5.4 14.6 15.9 3 61.7 49.2 48.3 3.3

21 5.2 5.8 15.3 16.5 3.7 64.2 50.5 49.8 3.1

22.5 6.9 6.2 16.3 17.4 5.2 67.5 52.2 51.4 3.2

24.5 8.9 6.8 17.7 18.6 6.8 72.1 54.6 53 3.1

129.6 -2.3 3.3 -1.3 126.3 -2.3 19.7 -17.7 24.2 -1.3 3.4 19.2 1.6 1.8 -5 8.2 0.1 12.6 -7.6 16.7 5.3 23.3 4.8 6 3.2 0.7 0 13.3 4.6

121.1 -6.6 3 -9.7 118.1 -6.5 14.4 -26.6 23 -4.9 3.3 18.2 1.5 1.8 -0.9 7.3 -10.4 12 -4.5 16.9 0.8 22.8 -2 6 0.5 0.7 -3.7 13.2 -0.3

110.6 -8.7 2.7 -9.8 107.9 -8.6 10.4 -27.7 21.2 -7.6 3 16.7 1.5 1.6 -8.8 6.5 -11.1 11.5 -4.1 16.5 -1.8 20.8 -8.9 5.7 -4.6 0.7 1.2 12.9 -2.9

108.8 -1.6 2.6 -2.7 106.2 -1.5 9.4 -9.5 21.9 3.1 3 17.4 1.5 1.6 -2.9 6.4 -2.1 11.1 -3.2 16.6 0.1 20.3 -2.6 5.8 1.5 0.8 10.3 12.5 -3.2

111.8 2.8 2.6 -0.3 109.2 2.8 9.3 -1.4 22.4 2.4 3.1 18 1.6 1.6 0.6 6.6 3.5 11.9 6.9 17.3 4.4 21.1 4.2 6.1 5.5 0.7 -8.1 12.2 -1.9

115.3 3.1 2.7 3.4 112.6 3.1 9.3 -0.2 23.1 3.1 3.3 18.4 1.7 1.6 4.1 6.9 4.5 13.1 9.8 17.7 2.4 21.6 2.5 6.2 1.8 0.7 -0.9 12.3 0.9

120.3 4.4 2.8 3.8 117.6 4.4 10.5 12.4 23.9 3.3 3.5 19 1.8 1.7 4.8 7.1 3.5 14.6 12 18 1.8 22 1.8 6.3 1.6 0.7 -0.1 12.7 2.7

126.6 5.2 2.8 2.6 123.8 5.3 12.2 16.6 24.6 2.9 3.7 19.7 1.9 1.8 3.7 7.4 3.9 16.7 13.9 18.7 3.7 22.3 1.2 6.4 1.8 0.7 0.1 13.1 3.1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

111.7 3.1 2.9 -5.3 108.8 3.3 14.6 -0.8 22.4 -1.3 3.1 17.7 1.7 1.7 -3.3 6.7 2.6 12.9 26 13.7 3.2 18.8 1.2 5.5 -0.3 0.7 0 11.8 4.5

118.3 5.8 3.1 5.9 115.1 5.8 16.8 14.8 23 2.4 3.3 18 1.7 1.8 7.3 7.1 5.9 14.2 10.2 13.9 1.8 20.4 8.1 5.4 -1.3 0.7 0 11.9 1

125.9 6.5 3.2 3 122.7 6.6 20.3 21.3 24.3 5.6 3.4 19.1 1.8 1.8 0 7.7 9.4 13.1 -7.9 15 7.6 21.8 7.3 5.7 5.2 0.7 0 12.3 2.9

132.6 5.3 3.3 3.6 129.3 5.4 23.9 17.6 24.5 0.9 3.2 19.5 1.7 1.9 3.2 8.2 5.6 13.6 4 15.9 5.8 22.2 1.7 5.8 1.9 0.7 0 12.7 3.4

10973.2 11829.4 13039.2 13836.1 286.3 296.9 306.9 311.7 3.6 3.7 3.4 1.6 133.1 138 144 151 2.7 3.6 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.2 3.4 3.1 5335 6131 5793 4472 3401 4015 4034 3054 1934 2115 1759 1419

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

13390 12689.2 11930.1 313.7 316 318.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 151 148 144.1 0 -2 -2.6 4.2 6.8 11.2 1991 971 837 1163 668 646 828 304 191

12316 12828.2 13360.6 14110.3 15052.2 321.3 324.1 327.7 332.9 339.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.1 143.6 148.9 156.3 160.9 164.1 -0.4 3.7 5 2.9 2 12.3 11.6 11.3 10.3 9.3 1456 1877 2783 3692 4620 898 1251 2067 2653 2982 558 626 716 1039 1638

Oca l a

P r o fi l e s Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area. Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 328,547 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 135,193 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 14.3% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 19,300 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Marion County Public Schools – 6,084 employees

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,500 employees • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,500 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,370 employees

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,404 employees

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,400 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center – 1,301 employees

• Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corporation – 1,238 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees

• City of Ocala – 979 employees

Source: Ocala/Marion County Economic Development Council

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Ocala MSA is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.6 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. Per capita income level is the lowest of the metros at 26.6. Relative to other forecasted metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level, at 39.4. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. The metro has the highest expected annual population growth of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas, at 1.4 percent. The real Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,332.08 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 1.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate counters employment growth at 13.4 percent, the highest of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 5.8 percent. The Federal Government sector follows with a growth rate of 4.4 percent. The third ranked is Education and Health Services sector at 2.9 percent. Three sectors will experience negative growth: Manufacturing and Construction and Mining at -0.2% and the Financial sector at -1.1 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s City plans to return $384K to FEMA • The City of Ocala plans to return $384K to FEMA after audits regarding support after hurricane Jeanne. FEMA gave Ocala too much money after paying twice for some work and for inaccurate measurements of the trucks used to haul away debris. • FEMA gave Ocala approximately $3.6 million in claims for hurricane Jeanne, and about $7 million total for hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, which all occurred in 2004. Source: Ocala Star Banner, October 8, 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a

Sales figures show good and bad news for state horse industry • At the Ocala Breeders’ Sale Co.’s Winter Mixed Sale, the final figures showed mixed results for the area’s horse industry. • For the preferred session, the numbers looked up, with the average price increasing by 42 percent. • For the open session, the average price declined by 8.1 percent. • However, the buyback rate declined for both types of sales, which means that buyers and sellers were more able to agree on prices than they were last year. Source: Ocala Star Banner, October 25, 2010 Roadbuilding: Stimulus offers modest boost • Two high-profile construction projects, the 31st Street extension and the Baseline Road widening, seem to be an indicator that the stimulus funds are helping the heavy and civil engineering sectors of the building industry. • However, the Florida Department of Transportation has bid only $1.8 billion in projects, down from $3 billion last year. • According to Bob Burleson, president of the Florida Transportation Builders Association, road building companies have actually laid off as much as 40 percent of their workforce. Source: Ocala Star Banner, October 28, 2010

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

Marion Technical Institute now tobacco-free campus • A School Board policy allows principals to designate an outside smoking area. However, the Florida Constitution gives a principal the authority to create strict policies regarding the use of tobacco products on campus. • MTI’s principal announced the policy that does not allow the use of any tobacco products by anyone when they are on campus. • The Marion County Health Department will be at the campus to offer information about becoming tobacco free to students and staff. Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 17, 2010 Ocala Stud lands property deal • The Ocala Stud property was sold on December 6 to Trinity Lane LLC for $9 million. The former owner, Michael O’Farrell says he plans to remain on the property for many years and lease it from the new owners. • Planned development of the property includes an extension of Southwest 42nd Street. A nearby mall and Trinity Catholic High School also sit on land that was once part of the Ocala Stud property. Source: Ocala Star Banner, December 12, 2010

Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

7000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

6500.0 6000.0 5500.0 5000.0 4500.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

4000.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Ocala Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

December 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

10.8 3.6 3.5 7.3 8.7 2.1 32.4 26.2 37.7 1.6

10.9 4 3.5 7.4 8.7 2.7 32.6 26.2 38.1 1.4

11 4.2 3.5 7.4 8.8 3.1 32.8 26.3 38.4 3

11.1 4 3.6 7.5 8.9 2.7 33 26.4 38.7 3.3

11.2 4.2 3.6 7.6 8.9 2.8 33.2 26.4 39 3.2

11.3 4.1 3.7 7.6 9 2.9 33.3 26.5 39.2 3.1

11.4 4.2 3.7 7.7 9 2.9 33.5 26.5 39.6 3

11.6 4.7 3.8 7.8 9.1 3.2 33.8 26.6 39.8 3

11.8 5.4 3.8 8 9.3 3.8 34.1 26.8 40.1 3

12 6 3.9 8.1 9.4 4.3 34.5 26.9 40.4 3

12.2 6.3 4 8.2 9.5 4.6 34.7 27 40.8 3.1

12.3 6.3 4 8.3 9.6 4.6 35 27.1 41.1 3.2

12.5 6.2 4.1 8.4 9.7 4.4 35.3 27.3 41.4 3.2

12.7 6.2 4.2 8.6 9.8 4.3 35.6 27.4 41.7 3.1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

90.9 -0.8 6.2 -4.7 84.7 -0.5 6.5 -9.5 20.1 -0.6 3.4 14.3 2.5 1.6 -3.4 4.5 -10 7.8 1.1 13 4.5 9.8 0.2 3.8 2.5 0.9 24.8 16.8 -0.1

91.2 0.9 6.1 -2.6 85.1 1.1 6.6 -5.2 20.2 1.3 3.4 14.5 2.5 1.6 -0.8 4.6 -1.2 7.8 2.2 13.2 5.4 9.8 2.3 3.8 1.4 0.9 19.1 16.6 -0.9

91.7 2 6.1 -2.5 85.6 2.3 6.5 -2.5 20.3 1.5 3.4 14.6 2.4 1.6 0.4 4.6 1.1 8 5.7 13.4 6.1 10 4.2 3.8 3.4 0.8 9.1 16.6 -0.5

92.2 1.7 6.1 -1.4 86 2 6.5 0.2 20.3 0.9 3.4 14.6 2.5 1.6 -0.1 4.7 4.6 8.2 6.7 13.5 6.6 10 3.6 3.8 2 0.8 -27.9 16.6 -1.1

92.6 1.9 6.2 0.1 86.5 2 6.5 -0.6 20.4 1.1 3.5 14.6 2.5 1.6 1.3 4.7 4.2 8.3 7.3 13.7 5.1 10.1 3.2 3.9 2.6 0.8 -3.7 16.5 -1.5

93.2 2.1 6.2 0.7 87 2.2 6.4 -2 20.5 1.4 3.5 14.7 2.5 1.6 2.3 4.7 3.8 8.5 8 13.8 4.8 10.1 2.9 3.9 2.1 0.8 -1 16.5 -0.7

93.7 2.1 6.2 1.6 87.4 2.2 6.4 -1.3 20.7 2 3.5 14.8 2.6 1.6 3.3 4.8 4.3 8.6 7.4 13.9 3.5 10.2 2.1 3.9 1.8 0.8 -1.4 16.6 -0.3

94.4 2.4 6.3 2.2 88.1 2.4 6.5 -0.5 20.9 3.1 3.6 14.9 2.6 1.6 2.8 4.8 3.4 8.8 7.1 14 3.2 10.2 2.1 3.9 1.3 0.8 -1.8 16.6 0.3

95.2 2.8 6.3 2.6 88.9 2.8 6.6 1.5 21.1 3.5 3.6 15 2.7 1.7 2.7 4.9 3.4 9 7.8 14 2.3 10.3 2.2 3.9 1.2 0.8 -1.5 16.7 1

96 3.1 6.4 3.2 89.6 3.1 6.7 4.3 21.2 3.5 3.6 15.1 2.7 1.7 3.3 4.9 3.4 9.2 8.3 14.1 1.8 10.3 2.3 3.9 1 0.8 -1 16.8 1.5

96.7 3.3 6.4 3.5 90.3 3.2 6.9 7.9 21.4 3.3 3.7 15.2 2.7 1.7 3.7 4.9 2.8 9.3 8.8 14.1 1.4 10.4 1.8 3.9 1 0.8 -0.6 16.9 1.8

97.6 3.4 6.5 3.5 91.1 3.4 7.1 10.2 21.5 3 3.7 15.3 2.7 1.7 4 4.9 2.4 9.5 8.8 14.2 1.3 10.4 1.5 3.9 1.1 0.8 -0.5 17 2.1

98.5 3.5 6.5 3.2 92 3.5 7.3 11.8 21.7 2.9 3.8 15.5 2.8 1.7 4.1 5 2.3 9.8 8.9 14.2 1.6 10.4 1.2 3.9 1.2 0.8 -0.6 17.1 2.2

99.4 3.6 6.6 2.9 92.9 3.6 7.6 12.9 21.8 2.6 3.8 15.6 2.8 1.7 3.6 5 2.6 10 9 14.3 1.8 10.5 1.2 4 1.1 0.8 -0.7 17.2 2.3

6027.6 332 0.9 134.2 -0.9 14 584 574 10

6083.9 333.1 1.1 135 -0.2 13.9 702 704 -2

6116.2 334.5 1.3 136.3 0.9 14 859 858 1

6154.6 335.9 1.5 137.5 1.9 13.9 1077 1066 11

6198.3 337.5 1.7 138.8 3.4 13.9 1357 1336 21

6254.7 339.3 1.9 140.1 3.8 13.8 1702 1664 38

6306.3 341.3 2.1 141.5 3.8 13.7 2053 1997 56

6385.1 343.5 2.3 142.5 3.6 13.4 2439 2376 63

6467.8 345.7 2.4 143.5 3.4 13.2 2822 2743 79

6556.2 347.9 2.5 144.4 3 12.9 3007 2922 85

6625.4 350 2.5 145.3 2.7 12.6 3148 3053 95

6708.2 352.4 2.6 145.7 2.2 12.2 3349 3243 106

6796.2 354.7 2.6 146.1 1.8 11.9 3502 3381 121

6879.3 357.1 2.7 146.5 1.5 11.6 3567 3425 142

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

December 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

6.9 7.4 2.7 4.2 6.6 5.3 24.7 23.4 30.1 6

7.7 11 3 4.7 7.1 8.1 26.4 24.4 30.9 2.6

8.6 11.9 3.3 5.3 7.7 8.6 28.4 25.5 32.2 4

9.6 11.7 3.7 5.9 8.4 8.7 30.5 26.7 34.5 7.3

10.1 4.7 3.8 6.3 8.6 1.9 31.2 26.5 35 1.2

10.5 4.4 3.7 6.8 8.7 1.1 32.1 26.5 36.3 4

10.4 -1.1 3.5 7 8.5 -1.3 31.6 26 37 1.8

10.7 2.9 3.4 7.3 8.6 1.1 32.3 26.1 37.6 1.7

11.1 4.1 3.6 7.5 8.9 2.9 33.1 26.4 38.8 3.2

11.7 5.1 3.8 7.9 9.2 3.5 34 26.7 40 3

12.4 6.2 4.1 8.4 9.6 4.5 35.2 27.2 41.2 3.1

13.4 7.7 4.4 9 10.2 5.6 36.9 28 42.5 3.1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

89.9 3.4 9.2 -1 80.7 3.9 8.5 15.3 20.9 2 3.3 15.1 2.5 2.2 -5.1 4.3 9.2 7.6 4.8 10.5 8.5 7.7 0.9 3.6 -1.6 0.7 -2.3 14.7 0.4

95.9 6.6 9.6 4 86.3 6.9 9.9 16.7 21.7 3.6 3.6 15.6 2.5 2.2 1.2 4.9 12.5 8.2 7.5 11.1 6 8.7 13.1 3.8 7.7 0.7 0 15.1 2.4

101.5 5.9 9.9 3.6 91.6 6.2 10.7 8.8 22.9 5.7 3.9 16.3 2.7 2.2 -2.3 5.4 11.1 8.9 9.5 12 7.7 9.2 6.3 4 5.2 0.7 0.1 15.4 2.3

106.1 4.5 9.9 -0.7 96.2 5.1 12.6 17 23.4 1.9 4.2 16.4 2.7 2.1 -1.9 5.8 6 9.3 4.1 12.7 5.8 9.7 4.8 4.1 1.9 0.7 0 16 3.5

106.8 0.6 9.6 -3 97.2 1 11.6 -7.6 23.8 1.7 4.4 16.4 2.9 2 -7.2 6 3.6 8.5 -8.2 13.3 4.8 10.6 9.5 4.3 4.6 0.7 0 16.4 2.9

101.9 -4.6 8.3 -13.9 93.6 -3.6 9.6 -16.9 22.7 -4.5 4.1 15.7 2.9 1.9 -3 5.9 -0.6 8.1 -4.6 13.5 1.5 10.4 -2 3.9 -8.6 0.7 2.4 16.8 2.1

92.8 -9 6.6 -20.2 86.2 -8 7.4 -23.5 20.5 -9.8 3.5 14.5 2.5 1.7 -11.4 5.2 -11.6 7.7 -5.1 12.7 -6.2 9.9 -5 3.6 -7.8 0.7 1.1 16.8 0

90.7 -2.2 6.2 -5.7 84.5 -2 6.6 -11.2 20.1 -1.8 3.4 14.3 2.4 1.6 -5.5 4.5 -13.9 7.7 -0.3 12.9 1.9 9.7 -1.5 3.7 3.5 0.9 27.2 16.7 -0.5

92.4 1.9 6.2 -0.8 86.3 2.1 6.5 -1.3 20.4 1.2 3.5 14.6 2.5 1.6 1 4.7 3.4 8.2 7 13.6 5.6 10 3.5 3.8 2.5 0.8 -8.1 16.6 -0.9

94.8 2.6 6.3 2.4 88.5 2.6 6.5 1 21 3 3.6 14.9 2.6 1.7 3 4.8 3.6 8.9 7.7 14 2.7 10.3 2.2 3.9 1.3 0.8 -1.4 16.7 0.6

98.1 3.4 6.5 3.3 91.6 3.4 7.2 10.7 21.6 3 3.7 15.4 2.8 1.7 3.9 5 2.5 9.7 8.9 14.2 1.5 10.4 1.4 3.9 1.1 0.8 -0.6 17 2.1

101.8 3.8 6.7 2.1 95.2 4 8.2 12.9 22.1 2.3 3.8 15.8 2.9 1.8 3.4 5.1 2.9 10.6 10.3 14.7 3.3 10.5 0.9 4 1.3 0.8 -0.4 17.4 2.3

4938.5 280.7 3.1 114.3 2.3 5.4 6725 5982 742

5372.9 291.4 3.8 118.9 4 4.6 5099 4994 105

5895.2 303.3 4.1 126.8 6.7 3.7 7181 6606 575

6264.6 314.9 3.8 132.8 4.7 3.4 7242 6862 380

6283.6 323.2 2.7 136.5 2.7 4.5 3128 2808 320

6184.8 327.2 1.2 138 1.1 7.8 1210 1186 23

5823.9 328.8 0.5 136 -1.5 12.9 423 401 23

5966.2 331.6 0.8 134.8 -0.9 14.3 610 608 3

6180.9 336.8 1.6 138.2 2.5 13.9 1249 1231 18

6428.9 344.6 2.3 143 3.5 13.3 2580 2509 71

6752.3 353.6 2.6 145.9 2.1 12.1 3391 3275 116

7135.4 363.1 2.7 147.5 1.1 10.9 3780 3605 175

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

P r o fi l e s The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s third-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

Metro population estimate of 2,082,421 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) Lake County population estimate of 312,119 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) Orange County population estimate of 1,086,480 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) Osceola County population estimate of 270,618 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) Seminole County population estimate of 413,204 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,130,702 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database) An unemployment rate of 11.8% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 133,603 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • •

Walt Disney Co. – 62,200 employees Orange County Public Schools – 23,228 employees Florida State Government – 19,500 Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 16,002 employees Publix Super Markets Inc. – 15,606 employees Universal Orlando – 13,000 employees Federal Government – 12,700 University of Central Florida – 10,152 employees Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 10,000 employees Seminole County Public Schools – 9,984 employees

Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission, Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Orlando Business Journal 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income growth is expected to grow at a rate of 4.8 percent annually, the highest of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. The per capita income level is expected to be 29.7. Average annual wage growth will be 2.4 percent, and average annual wage will be at a level of 44.3. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 1.3 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. The real Gross Metro Product is expected to be one of the highest, averaging $87,602.58 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.5 percent annually, the highest of the forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 10.7 percent.

In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be Professional and Business Services with an average annual growth rate of 7.6 percent. This will be followed by Education and Health Services, with an average annual growth rate of 3.0 percent. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of –0.5 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Kohl’s holiday hiring may create 315 Orlando jobs • Kohl’s has nine stores in the Orlando area. 315 jobs will be added to the locations that are in Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Lake Counties. • Kohl’s hoped the temporary positions would be filled by mid-November. • The new employees can expect to work 20 hours per week. Kohl’s did not disclose the pay range. The corporation plans on hiring 40,000 total seasonal workers. Source: Orlando Business Journal, October 6, 2010

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Universal’s Potter profit lives up to the hype • Universal Orlando reported numbers in its third quarter that proved that the Potter attraction led to the best quarter in its history. • As Universal executives predicted, Hogwarts attracted 36% more people. Revenue increased to $364M, a 62% increase. • Universal expects just as many tourists to experience The Wizarding World of Harry Potter next year. Source: Orlando Sentinel, October 17, 2010 UCF No. 2 in enrollment • The University of Central Florida, home of 56,235 students, has the largest enrollment in the University’s history. Nationally, it is now ranked number two, surpassing Ohio State. • This fall’s freshman class averaged a high school grade point average of 3.8 and a 1237 SAT score, two more records set this year. Forty-five national merit scholars chose UCF this year, which puts UCF in the top 50 in the nation.

• The Health Village area is located on the corner of N. Orange Ave. and Rollins St. in Orlando. It includes not only medical space, but residential areas and retail as well. Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 29, 2010 55West in talks with buyers • Dutch lender FFWO LLC. of downtown Orlando’s 55 West mixed-use development is preparing to sell the 32-story building on Church St. • FFWO LLC. is updating the Orlando City council on the original economic development agreement. Changes to the agreement are needed to sell the property. • The corporation currently is in negotiations with several undisclosed purchasers. Source: Orlando Business Journal, December 6, 2010

• U.S. News and World Report called UCF “up and coming” as well as one of the top 10 universities to watch. Five UCF programs were ranked among the nation’s best in their fields. Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 4, 2010 Florida Hospital opens new office building • Florida Hospital Orlando opened a new building to house the Hospital Transplant Center, the Florida Hospital Digestive Health Center, and advanced surgical programs. The building is seven stories and 156,000 sq. feet. • The Hospital opened the Diabetes Institute with a demonstration kitchen and shopping area to educate patients.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ki s s i m m ee Orlando - Kissimmee Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

100000.0

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

70000.0 60000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

50000.0

(Thousands)

15.0%

1050.0

9.0%

1000.0

6.0%

950.0

3.0%

900.0

0.0%

850.0

-3.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income 12.0%

1.4

80000.0

1100.0

800.0

1.2

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Payroll Employment 1150.0

1.0

90000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

-6.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ki s s i m m ee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

December 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

74.8 2.5 42.7 32 60.4 1 35.4 28.6 42.6 0.6

75.6 3 43.3 32.2 60.7 1.7 35.7 28.7 42.9 0.9

76.5 4 44 32.5 61.3 2.9 36.1 28.9 43.3 2.6

77.4 4.1 44.6 32.7 61.8 2.8 36.4 29.1 43.6 3.1

78.2 4.6 45.3 32.9 62.3 3.2 36.7 29.2 43.9 3.1

79.1 4.7 45.9 33.2 62.8 3.4 37 29.4 44.2 2.9

80.2 4.7 46.7 33.5 63.4 3.4 37.4 29.5 44.5 2.8

81.4 5.2 47.5 33.9 64.1 3.7 37.8 29.8 44.8 2.8

82.9 5.9 48.4 34.5 65 4.4 38.3 30.1 45.1 2.7

84.3 6.6 49.3 35.1 65.9 4.9 38.9 30.4 45.4 2.8

85.8 7 50.2 35.6 66.7 5.3 39.4 30.6 45.8 2.8

87.4 7.3 51.1 36.3 67.7 5.5 39.9 30.9 46.1 3

89 7.4 52.1 36.8 68.6 5.6 40.4 31.2 46.4 2.9

90.6 7.4 53.1 37.4 69.6 5.6 41 31.5 46.7 2.9

1027.9 2.7 37.8 0.9 990.1 2.8 50 -0.5 183.3 1.2 40.4 114.4 30.3 24.3 2.3 62 2.6 180.3 9.1 125 4.5 199.9 2 50 2 12.1 -5.1 103.2 -1.5

1036.5 3.1 38 1.5 998.5 3.1 49.8 -1.9 184.8 1.6 41 115 30.7 24.5 2.8 62.4 2.5 185 10.3 126.2 4.4 200.4 1.8 50.2 1.6 12 -1 103.2 -0.7

1045.8 3.2 38.3 2.3 1007.5 3.2 49.7 -1 186.5 2.3 41.4 115.7 31.2 24.7 3.5 62.9 3.1 189 10.2 127.3 3.6 201.7 1.3 50.3 1.3 12 -1.3 103.5 -0.2

1056.7 3.5 38.7 3 1018 3.5 50.2 0 188.1 3.1 41.9 116.6 31.6 24.8 2.7 63.3 2.6 194.6 10.5 128.4 3.8 202.6 1.6 50.3 0.8 11.9 -1.6 103.8 0.3

1069.5 4 39.1 3.4 1030.5 4.1 51 2.1 189.5 3.4 42.2 117.3 31.9 24.9 2.3 63.8 2.8 202 12 129.3 3.4 203.5 1.8 50.4 0.8 11.9 -1.4 104.3 1.1

1081.9 4.4 39.5 3.9 1042.5 4.4 52.4 5.2 190.9 3.3 42.6 118.1 32.2 25.1 2.4 64.2 2.9 208.3 12.6 130.3 3.3 204.2 1.9 50.5 0.6 11.9 -1.3 104.9 1.6

1092.6 4.5 39.9 4.1 1052.7 4.5 53.9 8.5 192.1 3 43.1 118.8 32.5 25.4 2.5 64.4 2.3 213.6 13 130.6 2.6 204.8 1.5 50.7 0.7 11.8 -1 105.5 1.9

1104.4 4.5 40.3 4.1 1064.1 4.5 55.6 10.9 193.2 2.7 43.4 119.6 32.8 25.5 2.9 64.5 2 219.8 13 131.5 2.4 205.2 1.3 50.8 1 11.8 -0.7 106.1 2.2

1119.7 4.7 40.6 3.8 1079.2 4.7 57.5 12.7 194.5 2.7 43.9 120.7 33.3 25.6 3 65 1.9 228.8 13.3 132.7 2.6 205.7 1.1 51 1.3 11.8 -0.6 106.7 2.2

1134.1 4.8 40.8 3.4 1093.3 4.9 59.5 13.7 195.4 2.4 44.3 121.5 33.7 25.7 2.6 65.5 2.1 236.6 13.6 133.9 2.8 206.3 1.1 51.2 1.4 11.8 -0.5 107.3 2.2

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1000.4 0.1 37.5 -0.1 963 0.1 50.2 -3.9 181.2 -1.5 39.1 112.8 29.7 23.8 -3.8 60.5 -2.8 165.3 -1.5 119.6 1.1 195.9 3.9 49 2 12.7 5.8 104.8 0.2 82659.7 2109.2 1 1120.6 0.3 11.5 6432 4739 1693

1005.7 1 37.5 1.4 968.3 1 50.7 2.7 182 -0.1 39.3 114.1 29.6 23.8 -2.8 60.9 -2.2 167.6 0.5 120.8 2.6 197 3.4 49.4 2.9 12.1 1 103.9 -0.9

1013.8 2.2 37.4 0.9 976.4 2.2 50.2 4.8 182.3 0.3 39.3 115.3 29.5 23.9 -1.1 61 -1.7 171.5 3.2 122.8 3.1 199 5.3 49.7 3.6 12.1 0.1 103.7 -1.1

1020.8 2.1 37.6 0.5 983.2 2.2 50.2 0.3 182.4 0.4 39.8 114.6 29.8 24.1 1.6 61.7 0.3 176.2 6 123.7 3.3 199.5 4 49.9 2.1 12.1 -14.9 103.5 -1

83566 84115.1 84701.1 85350.2 86214.9 87073.1 88233.5 89488.9 90784.7 91817.4 2114.6 2120.4 2126.5 2132.6 2139.2 2146.1 2153.1 2161 2169.3 2178.5 1 1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1124.3 1127.3 1129.4 1132.4 1135.8 1138.6 1142.3 1147 1150.4 1154.4 0.2 0.6 0.6 1 1 1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 11.6 11.6 11.4 11.3 11 10.8 10.5 10.2 10 9.6 6187 6664 7784 9029 10620 12510 14424 15989 17039 17992 5192 5724 6637 7619 8741 10283 12050 13472 14380 15074 995 940 1147 1410 1879 2227 2374 2517 2658 2917

93014 94407.5 95698.2 2188.7 2199.5 2211.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 1158.3 1162.7 1167.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 9.3 9 8.8 19255 20346 21143 16043 16747 16938 3212 3599 4205

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ki s s i m m ee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

December 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

53.1 5.9 33.2 19.9 50.4 3.8 29.3 27.8 35.7 3.9

58.1 9.4 36.3 21.7 53.7 6.6 31 28.6 37.4 4.8

64 10.2 40.2 23.8 57.5 7 32.9 29.5 39.1 4.6

69.9 9.3 43.5 26.5 61.1 6.4 34.9 30.5 40.6 3.6

73 4.3 45.4 27.6 62.1 1.5 35.8 30.5 41.3 1.8

75.1 2.9 45.5 29.6 61.8 -0.4 36.4 30 42.1 1.9

73.2 -2.5 42.7 30.5 60.1 -2.7 35.1 28.8 42.1 0.2

74.6 1.9 42.6 32 60.2 0.1 35.4 28.6 42.5 0.8

77.8 4.3 45 32.8 62.1 3.1 36.5 29.1 43.7 2.9

82.2 5.6 48 34.2 64.6 4.1 38.1 29.9 44.9 2.8

88.2 7.3 51.6 36.5 68.2 5.5 40.2 31.1 46.2 2.9

95.7 8.6 55.9 39.8 72.6 6.5 42.7 32.4 47.6 2.9

1094.7 2.6 44.1 -0.8 1050.6 2.7 85.4 -6.4 204 2.6 47.2 123.7 33 26.8 3.7 67.8 1.1 186.9 4.8 112.7 4.8 193.6 3.6 55.8 4.5 11.5 0.4 106.2 3.4

1076.3 -1.7 42.3 -4.1 1034 -1.6 72.7 -14.8 200.8 -1.6 45.8 121.9 33.1 26.3 -1.8 66.5 -1.9 182.6 -2.3 116.4 3.3 199.6 3.1 51.4 -7.9 11.8 2.8 105.9 -0.3

1009.2 -6.2 38.1 -10 971.1 -6.1 54.9 -24.5 186 -7.4 40.6 115.2 30.2 25.1 -4.9 63.1 -5.2 169 -7.4 117.6 1 190.3 -4.6 48.3 -6.1 12.1 2.6 104.8 -1

999.6 -1 37.3 -1.9 962.2 -0.9 49.7 -9.5 181.7 -2.3 39.2 113.2 29.6 23.9 -4.7 61.2 -2.9 166.3 -1.6 119.8 1.9 193.5 1.7 48.8 1.1 12.8 5.9 104.5 -0.3

1024.8 2.5 37.7 1 987.1 2.6 50 0.6 183.2 0.9 40.1 114.8 30.1 24.2 1.4 61.8 0.9 178.3 7.2 124.4 3.9 199.7 3.2 49.9 2.3 12.1 -5.6 103.4 -1.1

1063.5 3.8 38.9 3.1 1024.6 3.8 50.8 1.6 188.7 3 42 116.9 31.7 24.9 2.7 63.5 2.8 198.5 11.4 128.8 3.5 203 1.6 50.4 0.9 11.9 -1.4 104.1 0.7

1112.7 4.6 40.4 3.8 1072.3 4.7 56.7 11.5 193.8 2.7 43.7 120.2 33.1 25.6 2.8 64.8 2.1 224.7 13.2 132.2 2.6 205.5 1.2 50.9 1.1 11.8 -0.7 106.4 2.1

1171.9 5.3 41.3 2.4 1130.6 5.4 64.3 13.5 198.2 2.3 45.4 123.5 34.6 26.1 2.3 66.5 2.5 259 15.3 137.2 3.8 206.8 0.7 51.8 1.7 11.8 -0.4 108.8 2.3

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

924.7 2 43.2 -4.9 881.6 2.4 66 7.4 173.4 1 40 107.4 25.9 23.1 2.5 57.4 4.8 148.8 -0.9 93.6 4.7 169.9 3 45.7 0.7 11.1 7 92.6 2.6

967.5 4.6 44.1 2.2 923.4 4.7 74.2 12.5 181.7 4.8 42 113.5 26.2 23.8 3 59.5 3.7 153.4 3 97.3 4 179.4 5.6 47.5 4 11.2 1.2 95.4 3

1022.8 5.7 45.3 2.7 977.4 5.9 84.4 13.7 192.8 6.1 44.7 120.1 28 24.7 3.9 63.7 7.1 165.7 8 102.2 5 183.6 2.4 49.9 4.9 11.8 5.2 98.7 3.5

1067.5 4.4 44.5 -1.9 1023 4.7 91.2 8 198.8 3.1 46.2 122.3 30.3 25.8 4.6 67 5.2 178.3 7.6 107.5 5.2 186.8 1.8 53.4 7.1 11.4 -3.5 102.7 4.1

66251.1 70645.9 77366.5 81895.5 83684.2 83594.7 1812.3 1876.3 1946.4 2002.7 2037.6 2063.4 2.8 3.5 3.7 2.9 1.7 1.3 934 963.3 1007.5 1050.4 1093.4 1121 1.7 3.1 4.6 4.3 4.1 2.5 5.1 4.4 3.5 3.1 3.8 5.9 27601 32374 33817 30354 17975 10189 22304 26186 26861 24302 12556 5554 5296 6188 6956 6052 5419 4635

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

80697 82685.7 85095.3 2085.2 2106.7 2129.7 1.1 1 1.1 1119.1 1122.1 1131.2 -0.2 0.3 0.8 10.5 11.8 11.3 4684 5984 8525 3835 5052 7180 849 933 1344

88895 93734.3 99580.3 2157.4 2194.5 2242 1.3 1.7 2.2 1144.6 1160.7 1178.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 10.4 9.2 8.2 14990 19684 23075 12547 16200 17915 2444 3483 5160

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port. Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 536,357 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 269,217 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.8% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 31,864 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Brevard County Schools – 8535 employees • Harris Corporation – 6391 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 3.6 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 32.1. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, the highest of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. Average annual wage levels should be at 50.1. Population growth is expected to be an average of 0.5 percent, and the real Gross Metro Product level is expected to be $14,907.95 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 0.3 percent each year. The metro will be seeing an average unemployment rate of 11.1 percent.

Education and Health Services is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 2.1 percent growth annually. The Other Services sector follows with average 1.0 percent average annual growth rate. The Information, State and Local Government, and Professional and Business Services sectors will experience a decline of -0.3 percent. Construction and Mining and the Federal Government sectors will decline at -1.3 and -2.8 percent, respectively.

• United Space Alliance – 6300 employees

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s

• 45th Space Wing – 4174 employees

Filming at KSC transforms Brevard businesses

• Health First, Inc. – 6000 employees

• Space Gateway Support – 3000 employees • Brevard County – 2500 employees

• Wuesthoff Health System, Inc. – 2400 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation – 2000 employees • The Boeing Co. – 1962 employees • NASA – 1577 employees

Source: Economic Development of Florida’s Space Coast

• Brevard experienced a minor economic boom thanks to the production of the new Transformers 3 film. • Some local hotels experienced full occupancy for up to nine days straight, while others had above average occupancy. The restaurant business happily greeted the newcomers as well. All are grateful for the new business. • Commissioners estimate the movie has brought $2 million to Brevard for the week-long filming. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, October 8, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Brevard’s citrus season looks sweet • The state of Florida produces 146 million boxes of citrus every year, a 9.3% increase from twelve months ago. Each box contains ninety pounds of fruit. • Citrus growers say that despite the recent dry spell, March’s abundant rains will bring a good crop to Brevard. • Though production prices have increased, farmers plan on keeping low prices for their crops, gift baskets, and other merchandise due to the state of the economy. Source: Florida Today, October 27, 2010 Lockheed Martin adding jobs in Melbourne • Lockheed Martin selected West Melbourne to host the new Aerostat Program, which will be housed in a 64,000 square-foot facility. The program was developed in hopes of creating new intelligence technology that is lighter than air. • Lockheed plans to spend $2.35 million on renovations and equipment. One hundred new employees will be added to the payroll, with an average salary of $42,000. The Project is expected to infuse $20.2 million into Brevard’s economy. Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 5, 2010 Publix plans expansions, upgrades in Brevard • Publix plans on building a new store on the corner of Viera Boulevard and Stadium Parkway, an area that is predicted to have considerable growth. • The new hybrid store, meaning it will have an expanded “green” selection as well as a supermarket, would employ approximately 150 people.

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

• Publix just re-opened its $3 million store in Melbourne. More expansions and stores are expected. Source: Florida Today, November 29, 2010 Cruise casino at Port to hire 400 • Victory Casino Cruises are looking to fill 400 positions for its gambling ship that is to set sail early next year. • During the next thirty days, the company is looking to fill positions from accountants to food and beverage positions for the 1,200 passenger cruise. • The former SunCruz line experienced financial difficulty, leading to 300 people losing their jobs. The new casino cruise liner expects many of these workers to apply. Source: Florida Today, December 1, 2010

P a l m B a y â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Me l b o u r n e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; T itu s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

1.5

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(percent)

16000.0 15000.0

10.0%

14000.0

11000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

10000.0

(Thousands)

210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment

170.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0

4.0%

220.0

13000.0

6.0% 2.0%

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

12.0% 8.0%

15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

December 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

20.9 2.8 9.4 11.5 16.9 1.3 39 31.5 47.9 2.4

21 2.4 9.4 11.6 16.9 1.1 39.2 31.5 48.3 1.4

21 1.9 9.3 11.7 16.8 0.8 39.2 31.4 48.7 3

21.1 1.6 9.4 11.7 16.9 0.3 39.3 31.4 49.1 3.3

21.3 2 9.5 11.8 17 0.6 39.6 31.6 49.5 3.2

21.5 2.5 9.7 11.9 17.1 1.3 40.1 31.8 49.8 3.1

21.7 3.4 9.7 12 17.2 2 40.3 31.9 50.2 3.1

21.9 3.9 9.8 12.1 17.3 2.4 40.6 32 50.6 3

22.3 4.6 9.9 12.3 17.5 3 41.1 32.3 50.9 3

22.7 5.4 10.2 12.5 17.7 3.7 41.9 32.7 51.3 3

23 5.7 10.3 12.6 17.9 4 42.2 32.9 51.8 3.1

23.2 5.8 10.4 12.8 18 4 42.5 33 52.2 3.2

23.5 5.7 10.6 12.9 18.1 3.9 43 33.2 52.5 3.2

24 5.7 10.9 13.1 18.4 3.8 43.7 33.6 52.9 3.1

188.6 -2.3 20.2 -2.9 168.3 -2.3 8.4 -0.8 32.8 0.3 5.6 24.6 2.9 2.8 1 7.8 3.4 27.2 -15.3 32.8 4 21.1 1.4 7.6 1.3 5.8 -9.5 22 -1.8

190.9 -0.8 20.7 0.9 170.2 -1 8.3 -2.2 33 0.6 5.7 24.7 2.9 2.8 1.7 7.9 3.2 28.7 -9.3 33 3.8 21.1 1.2 7.6 1.1 5.7 -7.2 22 -1

190.8 1.1 20.6 1.5 170.2 1 8.3 -1.5 33.2 1.1 5.8 24.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 7.9 3.4 28.3 2 33.1 2.6 21.2 0.7 7.6 0.7 5.7 -5.9 22 -0.6

190.7 1.6 20.9 2.8 169.8 1.5 8.3 -0.8 33.5 2.2 5.8 25 3 2.9 2.7 8 2.7 27.3 3.3 33.2 2.4 21.3 0.8 7.6 0.2 5.7 -4.5 22 -0.1

192.4 2 20.9 3.1 171.5 1.9 8.5 1.2 33.7 2.6 5.9 25.1 3 2.9 2.7 8 2.8 28.4 4.5 33.3 1.6 21.3 1 7.6 0.1 5.6 -3.1 22.1 0.6

196.2 2.8 21.4 3.4 174.9 2.7 8.7 4 33.9 2.7 6 25.3 3 2.9 3.2 8.1 2.7 31.1 8.4 33.4 1.2 21.4 1.2 7.6 0 5.6 -2 22.2 1.1

196.7 3.1 21.6 4.4 175.1 2.9 8.9 7.6 34.1 2.5 6 25.4 3.1 3 3.5 8.1 2.1 30.8 8.9 33.3 0.8 21.4 0.9 7.6 0.1 5.6 -1.6 22.3 1.3

196.5 3 21.8 4.2 174.7 2.9 9.2 9.9 34.2 2.2 6.1 25.5 3.1 3 3.6 8.1 1.6 29.7 9 33.5 0.7 21.4 0.6 7.6 0.2 5.6 -1.4 22.4 1.6

198.4 3.1 21.7 3.8 176.7 3 9.5 11.6 34.4 2.1 6.2 25.7 3.1 3 3.6 8.1 1.5 31 9.1 33.6 0.9 21.4 0.4 7.6 0.2 5.6 -1.5 22.5 1.7

202.5 3.2 22.1 3.3 180.4 3.2 9.8 12.6 34.6 1.9 6.3 25.8 3.2 3 3 8.2 1.6 33.9 9.2 33.7 1.1 21.4 0.2 7.6 0.1 5.5 -1.4 22.6 1.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

193.1 -1.3 20.9 -3.4 172.2 -1 8.4 -11.6 32.7 -0.9 5.5 24.5 2.8 2.8 -5.6 7.6 -5 32 -1.1 31.5 2.1 20.8 0.1 7.5 2.3 6.4 2.3 22.4 -2.1

192.4 -0.9 20.5 -3.2 172 -0.6 8.5 -7.2 32.8 -0.2 5.5 24.7 2.8 2.8 -3 7.6 -2.6 31.6 -1 31.8 2.3 20.9 0.3 7.6 3.6 6.2 -4.6 22.2 -1.9

188.8 -2.3 20.3 -3.5 168.5 -2.2 8.4 -5.7 32.9 0.8 5.5 24.9 2.8 2.8 -0.8 7.7 -0.7 27.7 -13.5 32.2 3.9 21 2.3 7.6 4.3 6 -7.9 22.1 -2.4

187.7 -3 20.4 -3.8 167.3 -2.9 8.4 -3.4 32.8 1.4 5.6 24.7 2.8 2.8 1.1 7.8 1.9 26.4 -17.3 32.5 3.8 21.1 2.5 7.6 3.2 5.9 -17.4 22.1 -2.1

14620 14671.7 14447.2 14402.8 14487.4 14687.4 14737.5 535.3 535.5 535.8 536.2 536.8 537.6 538.4 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 266.9 267.5 267.5 267.3 267.4 267.5 267.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 0.2 0 0.1 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 1511 1505 1608 1825 2087 2401 2763 1136 1230 1364 1551 1777 2033 2348 374 275 244 273 310 369 414

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

14826 15005.5 15333.2 15428.7 15507.7 15687.4 15998.8 539.6 540.9 542.2 543.7 545.2 546.9 548.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 1 1 1.1 1.2 267.8 267.9 267.8 267.9 268.3 268.7 269.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 11.1 11 10.8 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.7 3133 3514 3800 4035 4366 4650 4824 2756 3169 3436 3627 3901 4111 4171 376 345 364 408 464 540 653

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

December 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

15.1 5.7 7.5 7.5 14.3 3.6 29.9 28.3 37.7 4.9

16.3 8.1 8.2 8.1 15.1 5.4 31.5 29.2 39.8 5.5

17.6 7.8 8.9 8.7 15.8 4.7 33.4 30 41.6 4.5

18.9 7.5 9.4 9.5 16.5 4.6 35.6 31.1 42.8 2.9

19.7 4.2 9.5 10.2 16.7 1.4 36.8 31.3 43.8 2.5

20.4 3.4 9.5 10.8 16.8 0.1 38 31.3 45.2 3.2

20.3 -0.2 9.3 11 16.7 -0.4 37.9 31.2 46.6 3.1

20.8 2.4 9.4 11.5 16.8 0.7 38.9 31.4 47.8 2.4

21.2 2 9.5 11.8 16.9 0.8 39.6 31.6 49.3 3.2

22.1 4.3 9.9 12.2 17.4 2.8 41 32.2 50.8 3

23.4 5.7 10.5 12.9 18.1 3.9 42.9 33.1 52.3 3.1

25.1 7.1 11.2 13.8 19 5 45.3 34.3 53.9 3.1

213.8 -1.2 24.1 -1.8 189.7 -1.1 15.4 -15 36.9 -1.5 5.6 28 3.3 2.9 -2.6 8.6 0.3 36.9 -1.1 29.3 4 22.9 1.5 8 -1 6.2 0.5 22.8 1.1

207.4 -3 23.7 -1.6 183.7 -3.2 13 -15.4 35.5 -3.8 5.5 26.8 3.1 2.9 2.3 8.3 -3.4 34.5 -6.3 30.6 4.7 21.9 -4.2 7.9 -1.5 6.2 0 22.8 0

196.5 -5.2 21.9 -7.9 174.6 -4.9 10 -23.1 33.2 -6.4 5.3 25.1 2.9 3.1 4.6 7.9 -4.7 32.3 -6.6 30.9 0.8 20.9 -4.3 7.4 -6.5 6.3 1.4 22.8 -0.3

193.1 -1.7 20.9 -4.5 172.2 -1.4 8.7 -13.3 32.6 -1.7 5.4 24.5 2.8 2.8 -8.1 7.6 -3.8 31.9 -1.1 31.4 1.7 20.7 -1.1 7.4 1 6.6 4.8 22.4 -1.4

189 -2.1 20.4 -2.3 168.6 -2.1 8.4 -3.1 32.9 0.8 5.6 24.8 2.8 2.8 0.7 7.8 1.9 27.5 -13.8 32.6 3.9 21.1 1.8 7.6 2.4 5.9 -10.7 22 -1.8

192.6 1.9 21 2.7 171.6 1.8 8.4 0.7 33.6 2.2 5.9 25.1 3 2.9 2.9 8 2.9 28.8 4.6 33.2 1.9 21.3 0.9 7.6 0.3 5.6 -3.9 22.1 0.3

198.5 3.1 21.8 3.9 176.7 3 9.3 10.5 34.3 2.2 6.1 25.6 3.1 3 3.4 8.1 1.7 31.4 9 33.5 0.9 21.4 0.5 7.6 0.1 5.6 -1.5 22.5 1.6

205.3 3.4 22.2 2.2 183.1 3.6 10.5 12.6 34.8 1.5 6.4 26 3.3 3.1 2.2 8.3 2 34.7 10.6 34.3 2.4 21.3 -0.3 7.7 0.3 5.5 -1.1 22.8 1.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

196.9 1.9 22.8 -0.5 174.1 2.3 13 2.3 34.2 -1.6 4.6 26.3 3.3 2.8 0 7.3 0.7 33.8 3.2 26.7 5.7 20.2 1.7 8.2 8.4 5.7 1.2 22.1 2.6

204 3.6 23.6 3.8 180.4 3.6 14.8 13.6 35.5 3.7 4.7 27.2 3.6 2.8 -0.9 7.8 5.8 34.5 2.2 26.8 0.3 21.1 4.4 8.4 1.6 5.9 3.9 22.9 3.3

211 3.4 23.9 1.2 187.1 3.7 17.2 16.2 37.1 4.5 5.2 28 3.8 2.9 6 8.4 7.8 36 4.3 27.3 1.8 21.8 3.3 8.1 -2.8 6.1 1.9 22.2 -2.8

216.4 2.5 24.6 2.7 191.8 2.5 18.1 5 37.4 1 5.5 28.3 3.6 2.9 0.1 8.6 2.4 37.3 3.6 28.2 3.1 22.5 3.3 8.1 -0.8 6.2 1.7 22.6 1.7

12285 12991.4 13965.4 14576.4 14405.8 14335.1 14094.3 14494.4 14506.2 14975.5 15655.7 16430.9 504.8 517 526.2 530.8 534.5 536.2 536.1 535.3 536.6 540.3 546.1 553.4 1.9 2.4 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0 -0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 242 247.6 258.3 263 264.3 268.4 268.8 268 267.4 267.8 268.5 270.4 1.6 2.3 4.3 1.8 0.5 1.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 5.2 4.4 3.6 3.2 4.2 6.5 10.5 11.7 11.5 11 10.1 9.1 6110 8202 8465 5334 2817 1765 997 1423 1980 3302 4469 5220 5574 6309 7198 4371 2209 1282 886 1247 1681 2927 3952 4373 536 1893 1267 963 608 483 111 176 299 375 516 847

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.” QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 455,102 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 303,343 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,759 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 215,011 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.6% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 22,689 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 15,790 employees • Federal Government – 7,403 employees • State Government – 5,970 employees

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 employees • Baptist Heath Care – 3,163 employees • Lakeview – 2,000 employees

• Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees • Solutia, Inc. – 1,400 employees

• West Florida Hospital – 1,300 employees

• University of West Florida – 1,231 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. Personal income growth is expected to average 3.9 percent each year. The per capita income level is expected to be 29.7. The average annual wage growth rate should be at 2.5 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 42.7. Population growth will be at a rate of 0.5 percent. The real Gross Metro Product will be at a level of $11,936.63 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 1.4 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 10.1 percent, one of the lowest of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas.

Professional and Business Services will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 5.0 percent average annual growth. Education and Health Services follows with a growth rate of 1.9 percent. The Information, State and Local Government, and Federal Government sectors are expected to decrease with average annual growth rates of -0.2, -0.4, and -1.8 percent, respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Landfill methane powering 900 homes • The landfill gas-to-energy facility at Perdido Landfill began operations by producing 3,200 kilowatts, enough energy to power more than 900 homes. • Gulf Power began construction of the $5.3 million facility in February, after signing a partnership with Escambia County. • The energy capacity can be increased in the future as the production of gas expands. Landfill methane gas is among the most cost-effective forms of renewable energy. Source: Pensacola News Journal, October 12, 2010

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Beaches look forward to tourism season

Santa Rosa will pay for student overload

• Based on condominium bookings, the snowbird season in Pensacola Beach and Navarre Beach, usually from January through March, will take place as usual even after the BP oil spill.

• The Florida Department of Education could impose a penalty of nearly $318,000 to the Santa Rosa County School District since 393 of its classrooms exceed the class-size limits.

• Tourists returned in October to create a betterthan-average fall season, according to vacation rental agents and tourism officials.

• The penalty will be paid out monthly from the district’s operating fund. The district plans to hire around 30 additional teachers with money from the class-size reduction operating fund.

• No one tracks the exact number of snowbirds traveling to Pensacola and Navarre beaches but they generated $44,000 in bed taxes in February of this year, an increase from $36,000 for February of 2009. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 19, 2010 Oil spill claim payout rules announced • The independent claims administrator, Ken Feinber, announced that anyone is eligible to file a claim for final payment. • There is an option to receive a final lump sum payment or to file quarterly interim claims. • By accepting a final lump sum, the recipient gives up its rights to litigate and releases BP of all responsibility. The interim payments do not have an agreement not to sue. • The claims facility is expected to pay $2.3 billion, covering 175,000 claims by December 15.

• The Escambia County School District was found in compliance with the regulation. Source: Pensacola News Journal, December 2, 2010 So long, old stinky: new ECUA plant online • The new state-of-the-art Central Water Reclamation Facility operated by Emerald Coast Utilities Authority (ECUA) replaces the Main Street Wastewater Treatment Plan in downtown Pensacola. • The long-awaited $316 million facility, located on more than 2,000 acres, is the largest public works project in Escambia County’s history. • The treated wastewater will be used by Gulf Power’s power plant, and by International Paper. It will be the first IP plant to use reclaimed water to produce paper. Source: Pensacola News Journal, December 3, 2010

Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 25, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F e r r y P a s s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.4

13000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

10000.0 9000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

165.0 160.0 155.0

1.2

11000.0

170.0

150.0

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

8000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income

Pensacola Payroll Employment 175.0

0.8

12000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

December 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

16.4 3.7 7.1 9.2 13.2 2.2 35.9 29 41.2 1.8

16.5 3 7.2 9.3 13.3 1.7 36.2 29.1 41.5 1.3

16.6 3.4 7.3 9.3 13.3 2.3 36.5 29.2 41.8 2.8

16.8 3.1 7.4 9.4 13.4 1.8 36.7 29.3 42 3

16.9 3.2 7.4 9.5 13.5 1.8 36.9 29.4 42.3 2.8

17 3.2 7.5 9.5 13.5 1.9 37.2 29.5 42.6 2.7

17.2 3.2 7.6 9.6 13.6 1.8 37.4 29.6 42.9 2.6

17.4 3.5 7.6 9.7 13.7 2.1 37.8 29.8 43.1 2.6

17.6 4.1 7.7 9.8 13.8 2.5 38.2 30 43.4 2.5

17.8 4.6 7.8 10 13.9 3 38.6 30.2 43.7 2.6

18 4.9 7.9 10.1 14 3.2 38.9 30.3 44 2.7

18.2 4.9 8 10.2 14.1 3.2 39.3 30.5 44.3 2.8

18.4 4.8 8.1 10.3 14.2 3.1 39.7 30.6 44.6 2.7

18.6 4.8 8.2 10.4 14.3 3 40.1 30.8 44.9 2.7

161.2 1.1 5 -0.1 156.1 1.2 9.9 -1.5 30.1 0.1 5.3 20.6 4.4 2.9 0.6 8.6 3 20.9 6.3 29.9 3.4 18 1.3 7.1 1.3 6.5 -5.1 22.1 -2.4

161.7 1.3 5 0.5 156.7 1.4 9.8 -2.8 30.3 0.5 5.4 20.6 4.5 2.9 1.4 8.6 2.7 21.2 6.5 30 3.1 18 1 7.1 1 6.5 -1.7 22.1 -1.6

162.2 1.3 5.1 1.3 157.1 1.3 9.8 -2.1 30.5 1.1 5.4 20.7 4.6 3 2.4 8.7 3 21.5 5.9 30.1 2.1 18.1 0.5 7.1 0.7 6.4 -2.2 22 -1.2

163.1 1.5 5.1 2 158 1.5 9.8 -1.3 30.7 2.1 5.5 20.9 4.6 3 2.3 8.8 2.2 21.8 5.6 30.2 1.9 18.1 0.6 7.1 0.1 6.4 -2.4 22 -0.7

164 1.8 5.1 2.4 158.9 1.7 10 0.7 30.9 2.5 5.5 20.9 4.7 3 2.3 8.8 2.3 22.2 6.2 30.2 1.1 18.2 0.8 7.1 0 6.4 -2.4 22.1 0

165 2 5.2 2.9 159.8 2 10.2 3.4 31.1 2.5 5.6 21 4.7 3 2.8 8.8 2.3 22.6 6.7 30.3 0.7 18.2 1 7.1 -0.1 6.3 -2.3 22.1 0.4

165.8 2.2 5.2 3.2 160.5 2.2 10.5 6.9 31.2 2.3 5.6 21.1 4.7 3.1 3.1 8.9 1.6 23 7.1 30.2 0.4 18.2 0.7 7.1 0 6.3 -1.9 22.2 0.7

166.8 2.3 5.3 3.1 161.5 2.2 10.7 9.1 31.3 2 5.7 21.2 4.8 3.1 3.2 8.9 1.2 23.3 7.2 30.3 0.3 18.2 0.4 7.1 0 6.3 -1.8 22.3 1

167.9 2.4 5.3 2.9 162.6 2.3 11 10.7 31.5 1.9 5.7 21.3 4.8 3.1 3.2 8.9 1 23.8 7.2 30.3 0.4 18.2 0.2 7.1 0.1 6.3 -1.8 22.3 1.1

169 2.4 5.3 2.6 163.6 2.4 11.4 11.6 31.6 1.6 5.8 21.3 4.9 3.1 2.7 9 1.2 24.3 7.2 30.4 0.6 18.2 0.1 7.1 0 6.2 -1.7 22.4 1.2

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

159.4 1 5 -2.1 154.3 1.1 10.1 -3.4 30.1 -0.2 5.2 20.5 4.4 2.9 -4.9 8.4 -1.7 19.7 0.5 28.9 2.5 17.8 4.7 7 3.1 6.9 4.8 22.6 1.6

159.6 0.9 5 -0.9 154.6 0.9 10.1 -1.3 30.2 1.4 5.2 20.7 4.4 2.9 -5.3 8.4 -1.3 19.9 1.6 29.1 2.4 17.8 1.2 7.1 3.2 6.6 1.2 22.4 -0.4

160.2 1.5 5 -1.6 155.2 1.6 10 -1.4 30.2 1.3 5.2 20.8 4.4 2.9 -2 8.5 -0.4 20.3 3.4 29.4 3.6 18 2 7.1 3.2 6.6 -1.3 22.3 0.6

160.7 0.9 5 -0.8 155.7 1 10 -1.3 30.1 0.4 5.2 20.6 4.4 2.9 0.2 8.6 2.8 20.6 4.4 29.6 4.1 18 1.4 7.1 2.2 6.5 -13.6 22.2 -0.6

11519.3 11610.7 11645.7 11688.4 456.1 456.1 456.2 456.5 0.1 0 0 0.1 212 212.3 211.6 210.9 0.8 -0.2 -1.2 -1 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.7 2199 1366 1319 1355 1366 1303 1269 1294 833 63 50 61

11738 11806.9 457.1 457.7 0.2 0.4 210.3 209.8 -0.8 -1.1 10.7 10.6 1420 1495 1348 1397 72 99

11864 11971.4 12080.5 12197.8 12279.5 12382.9 12491.4 12589.4 458.5 459.3 460.2 461.1 462.1 463.2 464.3 465.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 209.4 208.9 208.4 207.8 207.3 207.3 207.5 207.7 -1 -0.9 -0.9 -1 -1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 10.5 10.3 10 9.8 9.5 9.2 9 8.7 1653 1776 1852 1975 2084 2236 2364 2436 1527 1664 1752 1873 1967 2097 2194 2223 125 113 101 102 118 140 170 213

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

December 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

11.3 4.4 5.5 5.8 10.7 2.3 25.9 24.6 31.5 3

12.1 7.9 5.9 6.2 11.2 5.1 27.6 25.5 33.3 6

13 7.2 6.3 6.7 11.7 4.1 29.2 26.2 34.6 3.9

14.1 8.6 6.8 7.4 12.3 5.7 31.4 27.5 36.4 5.1

14.8 5.1 7 7.9 12.6 2.3 32.9 28 37.4 2.7

15.5 4.4 7 8.5 12.8 1 34.2 28.1 38.7 3.5

15.8 1.7 6.9 8.8 12.9 1.5 34.6 28.4 40.2 3.9

16.3 3.5 7.1 9.2 13.2 1.7 35.7 28.9 41 2

16.8 3.2 7.4 9.4 13.4 1.9 36.8 29.4 42.2 2.8

17.5 3.8 7.7 9.8 13.7 2.3 38 29.9 43.3 2.6

18.3 4.9 8.1 10.2 14.2 3.1 39.5 30.5 44.4 2.7

19.4 6.1 8.5 11 14.7 4.1 41.5 31.5 45.6 2.6

173.5 0.1 7 -5.3 166.5 0.3 14.8 -3.9 33.8 2.5 6.7 22.2 4.9 3.6 -5.8 9.2 3.1 21.8 -4.3 28.7 4.2 17.7 -0.1 7.8 -0.4 6.6 -2.5 22.7 1.1

166.1 -4.3 6.5 -7.9 159.6 -4.1 12.7 -14.1 32.3 -4.5 6.1 21.3 4.9 3.5 -2.6 8.8 -3.6 20.3 -6.6 28.2 -1.5 17.6 -0.4 7.3 -6.3 6.5 -0.8 22.3 -1.7

158.4 -4.6 5.3 -18 153.1 -4.1 10.7 -15.9 30.3 -6.3 5.4 20.2 4.6 3.2 -8.9 8.6 -3.1 19.5 -4.3 28.1 -0.3 17.2 -2.1 6.8 -6.3 6.5 0.3 22.2 -0.6

159 0.4 5 -5.1 153.9 0.6 10.1 -5.1 30 -0.8 5.2 20.4 4.4 2.9 -7.6 8.4 -2 19.7 1.5 28.7 2 17.7 3 7 2.2 6.9 5.9 22.4 0.8

160.9 1.2 5 -0.5 155.9 1.3 9.9 -1.8 30.2 0.6 5.3 20.6 4.4 2.9 0 8.6 2 20.8 5.2 29.7 3.6 18 1.4 7.1 1.9 6.5 -5.7 22.2 -1

163.6 1.6 5.1 2.1 158.4 1.6 10 0.2 30.8 2 5.5 20.9 4.6 3 2.5 8.8 2.5 22 6.1 30.2 1.5 18.1 0.7 7.1 0.2 6.4 -2.3 22.1 -0.4

167.3 2.3 5.3 2.9 162.1 2.3 10.9 9.6 31.4 1.9 5.7 21.2 4.8 3.1 3 8.9 1.3 23.6 7.2 30.3 0.4 18.2 0.4 7.1 0 6.3 -1.8 22.3 1

171.9 2.7 5.4 1.7 166.6 2.8 12.2 11.6 31.8 1.3 5.9 21.4 5 3.1 1.9 9 1.6 25.6 8.5 30.9 1.8 18.1 -0.5 7.1 0.2 6.2 -1.4 22.6 1.1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

158.8 2.5 7.4 1.1 151.4 2.6 10.8 -2.8 30.2 1 5.3 20.8 4.1 4.1 -2 6.8 4.6 19.6 4.7 26.8 6.2 16.6 6.1 7.9 2.6 6.9 -0.5 21.6 0

163.2 2.8 7.3 -1.3 155.9 3 11.6 7.8 31.2 3.1 5.6 21.1 4.5 3.9 -4.5 7.5 9.8 21.1 7.4 26.7 -0.4 17.4 4.7 7.9 0.9 6.7 -2.2 21.8 0.9

169 3.6 7.5 3.1 161.5 3.6 13.9 19.4 33.1 6.1 6.2 21.9 5 3.8 -4.7 8.2 9.9 22.6 7.3 26 -2.9 17.3 -0.9 7.8 -1.6 6.7 -0.5 22.2 2

173.4 2.6 7.4 -1.4 166 2.8 15.4 10.4 33 -0.2 6.2 21.8 5 3.8 0.7 8.9 8.4 22.7 0.6 27.5 5.9 17.7 2.5 7.8 0 6.7 0.4 22.5 1.4

9957 10402.6 11087.2 11501.9 11532.7 11381.6 11232.6 11562.5 11719.8 12028.4 12435.8 12918.4 434.4 440.5 445.4 449.4 450.8 453.3 455.3 456.1 456.9 459.8 463.8 468.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 1 191.1 193.8 201.5 205.9 209.4 208.9 210.5 212.9 210.6 208.6 207.4 207.9 2.1 1.4 4 2.2 1.7 -0.2 0.8 1.1 -1 -1 -0.6 0.2 4.8 4.6 3.7 3.1 3.7 5.8 9.6 10.7 10.6 10.1 9.1 8.2 4425 4713 3782 2777 2468 1332 1026 1854 1397 1814 2280 2601 3556 3629 3284 2322 1780 1125 974 1449 1327 1704 2120 2332 869 1084 498 455 688 207 52 406 70 110 160 269

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

T a l l aha s s ee

P r o fi l e s The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University. Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 300,413 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 47,474 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,010 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 265,714 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 32,815 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • An MSA civilian labor force of 197,249 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 8.6% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 16,976 unemployed people for the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 46,800 employees • Florida State University- 8,784 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 3,480 employees • Florida A&M University – 3,468 employees • City of Tallahassee – 2,633 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 2,100 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,000 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 1,900 employees • Leon County – 1522 employees

• Tallahassee Community College – 1090 employees Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council and Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation (CES)

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Tallahassee MSA is expected to show minimal growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. The area should see personal income growth averaging 3.9 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 29.2. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, the highest of the twelve metropolitan statistical areas forecasted. The average annual wage level will be 42.5. Population growth will be at 0.3 percent, and the real Gross Metro Product will be $11,724.80(Mill).

Employment growth is expected to be 1.0 percent each year, one of the lowest in the forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. The unemployment rate, however, will average 8.0 percent, the second lowest in the forecasted metros. Professional and Business Services will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 5.1 percent annually. The Education and Health Services sector follows with a growth rate of 2.2 percent. The Information, State and Local Government, and Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with average annual growth rates of -0.3 percent and -0.4, and -1.6 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s County approves business tax incentives for four companies • Bing Energy Inc, Event Photography Group Inc., SunnyLand Solar LLC and SolarSink LLC have been approved for the Qualified Target Industry tax incentive if they relocate to Tallahassee. • The four companies would create 344 jobs in the next five years if they relocated. • If the state approves the companies, 80 percent of the incentives would be funded by the state and the remaining 20 percent would be funded locally. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, October 13, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a l l aha s s ee

Federal stimulus money helps Leon Sinks, local economy • Improvements to Leon Sinks and Lake Talquin have been funded by $350,000 in federal stimulus money. • A new deck overlooking Big Dismal Sink and improvements to the Munson Hills bike trail have been funded by the stimulus. • The work has been done by a Pensacola based company, Cronin Construction. • According to the U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of Agriculture, the U.S. Forest Service has added 4,500 jobs in the third quarter. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, October 20, 2010 Weatherization program helps homes, businesses • Weatherization programs in the Tallahassee area have helped to save or create about 132 jobs and have provided weatherization to about 650 homes. • The weatherization program is funded by federal stimulus money, and Tallahassee’s Community Action Agency has been given approximately $6.8 million for the programs. • Weatherization is an improvement on an already existing home which helps to reduce utility costs, basically making homes more efficient. The services are provided to the elderly, those with disabilities, and low income households. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, October 29, 2010

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

Budget deficit grows at FSU • An arbitrator ordered the Florida State University to rescind the layoff notices to 12 tenured professors. FSU’s president, Erin Barron, reinstated all 20 tenured faculty members set for elimination, which cost the university $2.5 million. • FSU has lost almost one quarter of its budget in the last three years. • Barron indicated that FSU may implement changes to its early retirement policies in preparation for further budget cuts next school year. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 20, 2010 Economic development is top concern • Out of 13 choices, commissioners chose their top seven priorities for 2011 during their annual retreat. Economic development was the first priority on four of seven commissioners’ lists. • The commission kept four priorities from last year: economic development, health care for those that are uninsured, evaluating zoning on the south side, and dealing with recidivism. • They also adopted five new ones: a sewer system to Woodville, a sports complex at Apalachee Regional Park, a park in Northeast Tallahassee, acquiring the land where the Flea Market operates, and reforming the county’s Comprehensive Plan that delineates local growth. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, December 14, 2010

T a l l aha s s ee Tallahassee Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.5

13000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0 10000.0 9000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

180.0 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0

2.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

8000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 185.0

12000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a l l aha s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

December 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

12.7 3.2 7 5.7 10.2 1.8 35.1 28.3 40.6 1.9

12.8 2.8 7.1 5.7 10.3 1.5 35.3 28.4 41 1.4

12.9 3.5 7.1 5.8 10.3 2.4 35.7 28.6 41.3 3

13 3.2 7.2 5.8 10.4 1.9 36 28.8 41.6 3.4

13.1 3.3 7.3 5.8 10.4 2 36.3 28.9 42 3.3

13.2 3.4 7.3 5.9 10.5 2.1 36.6 29 42.3 3.2

13.3 3.4 7.4 5.9 10.6 2 36.9 29.2 42.6 3.1

13.5 3.7 7.5 6 10.6 2.2 37.3 29.4 42.9 3

13.7 4.3 7.6 6.1 10.7 2.7 37.7 29.6 43.2 3

13.8 4.8 7.7 6.1 10.8 3.2 38.2 29.8 43.5 3

14 5 7.8 6.2 10.9 3.4 38.6 30 43.9 3.1

14.2 5.2 7.9 6.3 11 3.5 38.9 30.2 44.3 3.2

14.4 5.2 8 6.4 11.1 3.4 39.3 30.3 44.6 3.2

14.6 5.1 8.1 6.4 11.2 3.3 39.7 30.5 44.9 3.1

172.6 0.6 3.8 0.5 168.8 0.6 6.5 -2.2 22.4 -0.1 3.3 17.5 1.8 3.2 0.9 7.4 2.6 19.6 6.7 21.1 3.2 16.8 1.6 10.4 1.6 1.9 -4.9 59.4 -2.1

173.1 0.9 3.8 1 169.3 0.9 6.5 -2.8 22.5 0.1 3.3 17.5 1.8 3.2 1.8 7.5 2.4 19.9 7.4 21.2 3 16.8 1.3 10.5 1.3 1.9 -1.4 59.4 -1.4

173.6 0.9 3.8 2 169.7 0.9 6.4 -1.8 22.6 0.6 3.3 17.6 1.9 3.2 2.9 7.5 2.7 20.2 6.7 21.2 2 16.8 0.7 10.5 1 1.9 -2 59.3 -1

174.4 1.2 3.9 2.6 170.5 1.2 6.5 -0.6 22.8 1.7 3.3 17.7 1.9 3.2 2.2 7.6 1.9 20.6 6.5 21.3 1.7 16.9 0.7 10.5 0.4 1.9 -2.3 59.4 -0.6

175.3 1.6 3.9 3.1 171.4 1.5 6.6 1.3 22.9 2.2 3.4 17.8 1.9 3.2 2 7.6 2 21.1 7.3 21.3 1 16.9 0.9 10.5 0.3 1.9 -2.2 59.5 0

176.3 1.9 3.9 3.6 172.4 1.8 6.7 3.7 23 2.2 3.4 17.9 1.9 3.3 2.7 7.6 2 21.5 8 21.3 0.6 17 1 10.5 0.1 1.9 -1.9 59.6 0.4

177 2 4 3.9 173 2 6.9 6.6 23.1 2 3.4 17.9 1.9 3.3 3.2 7.6 1.3 21.9 8.5 21.3 0.2 17 0.6 10.5 0.2 1.9 -1.6 59.7 0.6

178 2.1 4 3.9 174 2 7 8.1 23.2 1.7 3.5 18 1.9 3.3 3.6 7.6 0.8 22.3 8.5 21.3 0.1 16.9 0.3 10.5 0.3 1.9 -1.4 59.9 0.9

179.1 2.2 4 3.7 175 2.1 7.2 9.1 23.3 1.7 3.5 18.1 2 3.4 3.7 7.6 0.7 22.9 8.6 21.4 0.3 16.9 0.1 10.5 0.3 1.9 -1.5 60 1

180.1 2.2 4.1 3.4 176.1 2.1 7.3 9.7 23.3 1.4 3.5 18.1 2 3.4 3.3 7.7 0.8 23.4 8.7 21.4 0.5 16.9 0 10.5 0.3 1.9 -1.5 60.2 1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

171.6 0.4 3.8 -2.5 167.8 0.5 6.6 -5.1 22.4 -0.3 3.2 17.4 1.8 3.1 -4.9 7.3 -2.1 18.4 -0.1 20.4 5 16.5 4 10.3 3.3 2 0.1 60.7 -0.6

171.5 0.4 3.8 -1 167.7 0.5 6.6 -2.2 22.5 0.2 3.2 17.6 1.8 3.1 -3.8 7.3 -1.5 18.6 0.4 20.6 3.4 16.6 3 10.3 3.7 1.9 -1.9 60.2 -0.7

171.9 1 3.8 -0.3 168.2 1 6.6 -2 22.5 1.1 3.2 17.7 1.8 3.1 0 7.3 -0.3 18.9 3.7 20.8 4.9 16.7 4.1 10.4 3.5 1.9 -1.8 59.9 -1.7

11327 11404.9 11434.9 361.5 361.5 361.4 0.2 0.1 0 194.7 194.7 193.4 0.8 0.6 -1 8.4 8.4 8.4 1012 957 985 582 618 668 430 339 318

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

172.3 0.4 3.8 -1.3 168.5 0.4 6.5 -2 22.4 -0.2 3.2 17.5 1.8 3.2 2.8 7.4 1.6 19.3 4.9 20.9 3.8 16.8 2 10.4 1.8 1.9 -16.7 59.7 -1.9

11479 11532.6 11606.6 11670.2 11779.7 11892.3 12012.9 12096.5 361.3 361.3 361.3 361.5 361.8 362.2 362.8 363.6 0 -0.1 0 0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 192 190.7 189.6 188.6 187.6 186.6 185.5 184.5 -1.6 -2.1 -2.6 -2.5 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.2 8 7.9 7.7 7.4 1038 1115 1191 1319 1483 1647 1763 1856 740 826 914 1067 1245 1417 1507 1571 298 288 276 252 238 230 256 285

12203 12318.2 12421.3 364.5 365.4 366.4 0.8 0.9 1 184.5 184.6 184.7 -1.6 -1.1 -0.4 7.2 7 6.8 1978 2080 2151 1670 1741 1759 308 339 392

T a l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

December 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

9 3.7 5.6 3.4 8.6 1.6 27.1 25.8 33.9 2.3

9.8 8.5 5.9 3.9 9.1 5.7 29.1 26.9 35.3 4.2

10.6 7.8 6.2 4.3 9.5 4.6 30.9 27.7 36.2 2.5

11.2 6.3 6.6 4.7 9.8 3.5 32.3 28.2 37.2 2.8

11.9 5.7 6.9 5 10.1 2.9 33.5 28.5 38.5 3.6

12.3 3.4 6.9 5.3 10.1 0.1 34.3 28.3 39.2 1.7

12.3 0.1 6.8 5.4 10.1 -0.1 34.1 28 39.7 1.3

12.6 2.9 7 5.7 10.2 1.1 35 28.2 40.5 2.1

13.1 3.3 7.2 5.8 10.4 2.1 36.1 28.8 41.8 3.2

13.6 4.1 7.6 6 10.7 2.6 37.5 29.5 43.1 3

14.3 5.1 8 6.3 11 3.4 39.1 30.3 44.4 3.1

15.2 6.3 8.4 6.8 11.5 4.3 41.2 31.2 45.8 3.1

178 1.1 4.6 2.8 173.4 1.1 9.5 -3 25.3 -1.2 3.8 19.1 2.4 3.6 2.9 8.2 -1.9 18.9 -1.2 18.5 3.8 16.7 3.6 9 5.9 1.9 0 61.8 1.6

176.3 -0.9 4.3 -7.1 172.1 -0.8 8.6 -9.7 24.2 -4.5 3.6 18.5 2.1 3.6 0.5 7.9 -2.9 19.1 1.3 19.2 4 16.5 -1.5 9.7 8.8 2 3.9 61.2 -1

171.7 -2.6 3.8 -9.5 167.8 -2.5 7.1 -17.3 22.6 -6.6 3.4 17.5 1.8 3.4 -5.9 7.4 -6.3 18.6 -3 19.6 1.7 16.2 -1.7 10 2.7 2 1.8 61 -0.3

171.3 -0.3 3.8 -1.7 167.5 -0.2 6.7 -6.4 22.4 -0.9 3.2 17.4 1.8 3.1 -7.9 7.3 -1.8 18.4 -0.9 20.3 3.6 16.4 1.2 10.2 2 2.1 3.1 60.7 -0.5

172.5 0.7 3.8 0 168.7 0.7 6.5 -2.2 22.4 0.2 3.2 17.5 1.8 3.2 1.4 7.4 1.6 19.4 5.7 21 3.7 16.8 2.2 10.4 2.1 1.9 -6.7 59.6 -1.8

174.9 1.4 3.9 2.8 171 1.4 6.5 0.6 22.8 1.7 3.4 17.7 1.9 3.2 2.5 7.6 2.1 20.8 7.1 21.3 1.3 16.9 0.8 10.5 0.5 1.9 -2.1 59.4 -0.3

178.6 2.1 4 3.7 174.5 2.1 7.1 8.4 23.2 1.7 3.5 18 2 3.4 3.4 7.6 0.9 22.6 8.6 21.3 0.3 16.9 0.2 10.5 0.3 1.9 -1.5 59.9 0.9

182.9 2.5 4.1 2.6 178.8 2.5 7.8 9.4 23.4 1 3.6 18.2 2 3.5 3.2 7.7 1.3 24.9 10.1 21.7 1.7 16.9 -0.4 10.5 0.4 1.8 -1.1 60.5 0.9

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

164.7 0.8 4.1 -0.6 160.6 0.8 7.7 7.1 23.5 0.5 3 18.5 2 3.4 -4.2 7.7 3 17.2 -0.1 17.1 1.1 13.6 1.6 7.8 -3.7 2 3 60.6 0.8 9402.1 332.9 1.5 173.4 0.5 4.2 3822 2422 1400

167.1 1.5 4.2 2 162.9 1.5 8.3 8.5 24.6 4.4 3.3 19.1 2.1 3.6 5.1 7.6 -0.7 17.2 -0.3 16.8 -1.7 14.4 6.1 8 2.8 1.9 -3.3 60.5 -0.2

171.8 2.8 4.2 0.8 167.5 2.8 9.4 12.4 25.4 3.4 3.6 19.3 2.5 3.7 2.1 8 4.8 18.2 5.9 17.2 2.6 15.6 8.3 8 -0.6 1.9 0 60.2 -0.5

176 2.4 4.5 4.9 171.5 2.4 9.8 4.8 25.6 0.9 3.7 19.4 2.4 3.5 -5.2 8.3 4.4 19.1 5.1 17.8 3.3 16.2 3.3 8.5 5.8 1.9 -1.7 60.8 1.2

9804.3 10452.5 10812.5 10956.7 11058.8 10951.4 11287.3 11513.3 11838.8 12259.8 12756.7 337.4 342.3 348.1 353.8 357.5 360.3 361.4 361.3 362.1 365 368.8 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 1 0.8 0.3 0 0.2 0.8 1.1 172.9 178 182.3 186.6 190.8 193.4 195 191.4 187.1 184.6 184.7 -0.3 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.4 0.8 -1.8 -2.3 -1.3 0.1 3.8 3.2 2.8 3.2 4.7 7.4 8.5 8.4 8 7.1 6.4 3388 3747 3105 2765 1245 789 900 1082 1553 2016 2335 2131 2766 2535 2171 961 656 617 787 1309 1685 1822 1257 981 570 593 284 133 283 295 244 331 513

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

P r o fi l e s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home. Quick Facts:

• MSA population estimate of 2,747,272 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Hernando County population estimate of 171,233 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,195,317 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Pasco County population estimate of 471,709 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Pinellas County population estimate of 909,013 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 1,324,012 in September 2010 for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 12.4% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 163,835 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Hillsborough County School District – 25,487 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas. Personal income growth is expected to be 4.3 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 32.1 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent. The average annual wage level will be 48.1. Population growth will average 0.8 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest real Gross Metro Product among the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas, averaging $94,670.38 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 2.2 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve metropolitan statistical areas forecasted. The unemployment rate is expected to average 11.1 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be Professional and Business Services, growing 8.1 percent each year. The Education and Health Services and Financial sectors follow with average annual growth rates of 1.9 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. The Manufacturing and Federal Government sectors are going to experience a decline, with annual growth rates of -0.3 and -1.3 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Banks shrink in Tampa Bay market

• Hillsborough County Government – 10,886 employees

• As of June 30, the number of bank branch offices in the Tampa Bay area declined by 50 compared to a year earlier, and banking institutions declined by three. The total deposits held by those institutions dropped 2.5 percent to reach $78.8 billion.

• James A Haley Veterans Hospital – 5,900 employees

• Since June, 2009, eight banks with headquarters in the Tampa Bay area have failed.

• JP Morgan Chase – 5,237 employees

• Bank of America holds 17.19 percent of deposit market share, Wells Fargo places second with 15.74 percent of market share.

• Verizon Communications – 14,000 employees • MacDill Air Force Base – 12,000 employees

• University of South Florida – 11,607 employees • Tampa International Airport – 7,760 employees • St. Joseph’s Hospital – 5,242 employees

• Verizon Information Technologies – 5,000 employees

Source: Committee of One Hundred Research 84

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, October 7, 2010

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Reservoir repair may include expansion • The largest reservoir in the state, located in rural Hillsborough County, needs to be repaired due to numerous shallow cracks. • Since the repair would require draining the reservoir for two years, which can hold up to 15 billion gallons of water, the repair job could also include an expansion to 18 billion gallons. • The current estimate of the project’s cost is $125 million. Contractors that submit bids should be able to complete the work in two years. The utility’s board would vote on the proposals. Source: St. Petersburg Times, October 18, 2010 USF wins two federal grants to train public health workers • Public health workers in Florida will be trained by USF’s College of Public Health to respond to hurricanes, disease outbreaks and other threatening situations. • The five-year $8 million federal grants will provide accessible and cost-effective training that has suffered due to tight budgets at the Florida Department of Health.

• Pasco schools will return about $5 million in funding since the projection was not met. The board will have to deal with a tighter budget for its 66,427 students. • The high unemployment rate may have influenced families to look for work somewhere else. Source: St. Petersburg Times, December 1, 2010 Tampa General Hospital project near downtown moves ahead • Tampa General Hospital won the City Council’s approval for its proposed Corporate Center on W Kennedy Boulevard near downtown Tampa. • The hospital bought the land for $9.7 million and plans to spend $5 million for renovations of the existing office building for 450 employees in the information technology and finance staff. • A second project plans to build a $100 million, six-story rehabilitation complex. It received City Council approval in October. Source: St. Petersburg Times, December 10, 2010

• The grants also allow for increased preparedness in case of a threat and for trained replacements for the aging labor force. Source: St. Petersburg Times, November 29, 2010 Pasco County school district reports first student enrollment decrease in decades • The district budget had been set by the Florida Legislature based on an increase of 684 students; however, Pasco school district reported a drop of 94 students, the first drop since the district started its annual records in 1986.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa â&#x20AC;&#x201C; St . P ete r s bu r g â&#x20AC;&#x201C; C l ea r w ate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

0.4

0.6

1300.0 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

1.2

1.4

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 105000.0 100000.0 95000.0 90000.0 85000.0 80000.0 75000.0 70000.0 65000.0

Tampa Payroll Employment (Thousands)

0.8

(Millions 2000 $)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

December 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

106.5 2.7 52.4 54.1 86 1.2 38.4 31 46.1 1.5

107.5 2.7 53.1 54.4 86.4 1.4 38.7 31.1 46.5 1

108.5 3.1 53.8 54.7 86.9 2 39 31.3 46.9 2.7

109.5 3.3 54.5 54.9 87.5 1.9 39.3 31.4 47.3 3.2

110.5 3.7 55.3 55.2 88 2.3 39.6 31.5 47.6 3.3

111.5 3.8 56.1 55.4 88.5 2.5 39.9 31.7 47.9 3

112.8 3.9 57 55.8 89.2 2.6 40.3 31.8 48.3 3

114.3 4.4 57.8 56.4 90 2.9 40.7 32.1 48.6 2.9

116.1 5.1 58.9 57.2 91.1 3.5 41.3 32.4 49 2.9

118 5.8 60 58 92.2 4.1 41.9 32.7 49.4 2.9

119.8 6.2 61.1 58.7 93.2 4.5 42.4 33 49.8 3

121.8 6.6 62.1 59.6 94.4 4.8 43 33.3 50.2 3.1

123.8 6.6 63.4 60.4 95.5 4.8 43.6 33.6 50.5 3.1

125.8 6.6 64.6 61.2 96.6 4.8 44.1 33.9 50.9 3.1

1149.4 2.2 57.1 0.8 1092.3 2.3 54.1 0.5 207.2 0.5 46.9 136.1 25.7 26.5 2.4 94 2.6 212.2 8.3 181 3.3 118.6 1.1 44.7 1.8 22 -4.7 132.1 -2

1158.1 2.6 57.4 1.3 1100.7 2.6 54 -1 208.5 0.8 47.4 136.6 26 26.7 3.1 94.4 2.3 217.7 9.7 182 3 118.7 0.8 44.8 1.3 21.9 -1.2 132 -1.2

1166.8 2.8 57.8 2.1 1109 2.8 54 -0.3 209.9 1.5 47.9 137.3 26.3 26.9 3.9 95.2 3.1 222.3 9.7 182.7 2.3 119.2 0.6 44.9 0.9 21.8 -1.5 132.1 -0.7

1177.5 3.1 58.3 2.7 1119.2 3.1 54.5 0.5 211.4 2.3 48.3 138.1 26.6 26.9 2.4 95.8 2.5 228.6 10.1 183.5 2.2 119.7 0.9 44.8 0.5 21.7 -1.8 132.3 -0.2

1190.7 3.6 58.9 3.1 1131.8 3.6 55.5 2.5 212.5 2.6 48.6 138.7 26.8 26.9 1.6 96.4 2.6 237.3 11.8 183.9 1.6 120 1.2 44.8 0.3 21.6 -1.8 132.8 0.5

1203.8 3.9 59.5 3.7 1144.3 4 57 5.6 213.7 2.5 49 139.4 27 27.2 1.9 97 2.7 244.8 12.4 184.6 1.4 120.4 1.4 44.8 0 21.5 -1.8 133.3 1

1214.7 4.1 60.1 4 1154.6 4.1 58.8 8.8 214.6 2.2 49.4 139.9 27.2 27.5 2.3 97.3 2.2 251 12.9 184.6 1 120.7 1.2 44.9 0 21.4 -1.5 133.8 1.3

1227 4.2 60.7 4.1 1166.3 4.2 60.6 11.2 215.4 1.9 49.7 140.4 27.3 27.6 2.9 97.5 1.8 258.3 13 185.4 1 120.9 1 44.9 0.2 21.4 -1.2 134.3 1.5

1243.2 4.4 61.1 3.7 1182.2 4.5 62.7 12.9 216.3 1.8 50.2 141.2 27.6 27.8 3.1 98.1 1.7 268.8 13.3 186.3 1.3 121.1 0.9 44.9 0.3 21.3 -1.1 134.9 1.6

1258.2 4.5 61.5 3.4 1196.7 4.6 64.9 13.8 216.9 1.5 50.4 141.7 27.8 28 2.7 98.8 1.9 278 13.6 187.2 1.4 121.3 0.8 45 0.3 21.3 -1 135.4 1.6

95184 96424.7 97740.6 98754.5 99927.9 2805.4 2811.1 2817.4 2824.7 2832.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1 1318 1321.1 1323.2 1326.2 1329 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 10.9 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.5 12987 14595 15464 16343 17590 10069 11508 12512 13312 14370 2918 3087 2953 3031 3220

101281 2841.4 1.1 1332.5 0.9 9.2 18704 15120 3584

102524 2850.5 1.2 1336.5 1 9 19514 15346 4168

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1124.3 -0.4 56.7 -5.9 1067.6 -0.1 53.9 -7.9 206.1 -1 45.6 135.5 25.3 25.9 -5.8 91.6 0.1 195.9 1.6 175.2 1.5 117.3 -0.2 43.9 -0.3 23.1 2.1 134.7 1.4

1129 0.8 56.6 -3 1072.4 1 54.5 -3.9 206.8 0.9 45.7 136.7 25.2 25.9 -4.7 92.3 1.4 198.5 3.5 176.7 1.2 117.7 1.3 44.3 0.5 22.2 -1.1 133.5 0.5

1135.4 1.4 56.6 -2.4 1078.8 1.6 54.2 -0.5 206.8 0.3 45.7 137.5 25.1 25.9 -2.1 92.3 1.3 202.7 4.9 178.7 2.3 118.5 2.9 44.5 1.9 22.1 -1.8 133.1 -0.7

1142.4 1.6 56.8 -1.2 1085.6 1.8 54.3 0.1 206.6 0.3 46.2 136.5 25.3 26.3 1.5 93.4 2.5 207.7 6.2 179.6 2.9 118.6 2.1 44.6 2.7 22.1 -13.7 132.6 -1.4

89887.9 90800.9 91217.2 91786.6 92410.4 93258.7 94058.5 2770.8 2775.6 2780.1 2784.9 2789.7 2795 2800.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1310.8 1312.3 1312.6 1311.8 1312.6 1314 1315.3 0.3 0 -0.5 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 12.1 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.4 11.2 7445 7003 7120 7881 8748 10004 11491 5094 5354 5621 6225 6920 7814 8825 2351 1649 1500 1657 1828 2190 2665

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

December 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

78.9 5 42.9 35.9 74.8 2.9 31.2 29.6 37.2 4.1

84.9 7.6 46 38.9 78.5 4.9 32.8 30.3 38.5 3.5

91.4 7.7 49.1 42.3 82 4.6 34.6 31 39.8 3.3

98.5 7.7 52.3 46.2 86 4.9 36.6 32 41.5 4.3

102.1 3.7 54.2 47.9 86.9 1 37.6 32 43.1 3.8

104.8 2.6 53.9 50.9 86.3 -0.7 38.4 31.6 44.3 2.8

103.9 -0.9 51.9 52 85.4 -1.1 37.8 31 45.3 2.2

106.3 2.4 52.3 54 85.9 0.6 38.4 31 46 1.7

110 3.5 54.9 55.1 87.7 2.2 39.5 31.5 47.4 3.1

115.3 4.8 58.4 56.8 90.6 3.3 41 32.3 48.8 2.9

122.8 6.5 62.8 60 94.9 4.7 43.3 33.5 50.3 3.1

132.6 8 67.9 64.7 100.5 5.9 46.1 34.9 51.8 3

1247.4 -0.1 75.6 -3.3 1171.8 0.1 87.3 -7 234.1 -0.7 54.3 150.8 29 31.8 -0.1 101.8 -0.9 221.9 -0.1 166.5 4.5 128.7 0.2 47.8 1.5 21.1 0.5 130.6 2

1204.9 -3.4 71.2 -5.8 1133.7 -3.3 75.9 -13.1 226.5 -3.3 52.9 145.8 27.8 30.3 -4.8 97.1 -4.6 207.7 -6.4 170.9 2.7 124.8 -3.1 47.6 -0.5 21.9 3.9 131.1 0.4

1135.4 -5.8 61.7 -13.4 1073.7 -5.3 60 -21 209.4 -7.5 47.9 135.6 25.8 27.8 -8.1 92.3 -4.9 194.1 -6.5 172.3 0.8 118.5 -5 44.2 -7 22.6 3.1 132.5 1.1

1124.2 -1 57.2 -7.3 1067.1 -0.6 54.3 -9.6 206.3 -1.5 45.4 135.9 25.3 26 -6.4 91.6 -0.8 195.8 0.9 175.3 1.7 116.6 -1.6 43.8 -0.9 23.3 3.2 134.2 1.3

1146.3 2 57 -0.4 1089.4 2.1 54.1 -0.2 207.3 0.5 46.5 136.7 25.5 26.3 1.2 93.5 2.2 210.1 7.3 180.3 2.9 118.6 1.7 44.6 1.9 22 -5.6 132.4 -1.3

1184.7 3.3 58.6 2.9 1126.1 3.4 55.3 2.1 211.9 2.2 48.4 138.4 26.6 27 2.4 96.1 2.7 233.3 11 183.7 1.9 119.8 1 44.8 0.4 21.6 -1.7 132.6 0.1

1235.8 4.3 60.8 3.8 1175 4.3 61.7 11.7 215.8 1.8 49.9 140.8 27.5 27.7 2.7 97.9 1.9 264.1 13.2 185.9 1.2 121 1 44.9 0.2 21.4 -1.2 134.6 1.5

1298.9 5.1 62.3 2.4 1236.6 5.2 70.1 13.6 218.9 1.4 51.4 143.1 28.3 28.6 3.2 100 2.2 304.5 15.3 190 2.2 121.4 0.4 45.2 0.5 21.2 -0.9 136.7 1.6

92114 91916.9 90552.9 88016.4 90039.8 92168.2 95851.9 2686.7 2713.1 2732.1 2749.5 2768.3 2787.4 2808.5 1.6 1 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1272.9 1293.6 1307.5 1309.4 1314.7 1312.8 1319.4 2 1.6 1.1 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.5 3.4 4.2 6.6 11 12.3 11.8 10.7 22987 11590 8907 5797 7650 8439 13634 19477 8530 5266 4053 5129 6645 10729 3510 3060 3641 1744 2521 1793 2906

100622 2837.4 1 1331 0.9 9.4 18038 14537 3501

106398 2877.1 1.4 1344.7 1 8.3 21393 16332 5061

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1141.8 0.1 76 -5 1065.8 0.5 72 3.5 221.2 -2.8 50.4 139.8 31 33.8 -3.6 93.9 1.5 183.7 2.4 148.5 3.2 118.7 0.4 47.9 -0.2 19.5 2.8 126.6 -0.8

1183.3 3.6 76.6 0.8 1106.7 3.8 79.1 9.8 226.1 2.3 50.9 143.3 31.9 32.1 -5 95.5 1.7 202.1 10 153.2 3.1 122.3 3 49.2 2.7 19.9 2.2 127.2 0.4

1222.9 3.4 77.3 0.9 1145.6 3.5 88.3 11.6 233.5 3.2 52.8 149 31.7 31.9 -0.6 99.4 4.1 213.2 5.5 155.6 1.6 126.3 3.2 49.4 0.5 20.8 4.3 127.2 0

78895.3 83143.1 88843.7 2530.6 2585.9 2643.5 1.7 2.2 2.2 1226.3 1255 1248.4 0.3 2.3 -0.5 5.3 4.5 3.9 27268 27275 32808 20002 22057 27577 7266 5217 5231

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2010

1248.4 2.1 78.2 1.2 1170.2 2.1 93.9 6.3 235.7 1 54 151 30.7 31.8 -0.2 102.7 3.2 222 4.2 159.3 2.4 128.5 1.7 47.1 -4.6 21 1.2 128.1 0.7

I n d u s t r y L o cati o n Q u o tie n t

E x p l a n ati o n a n d I n te r p r etati o n This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C a l cu l ati o n An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400

Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800

Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness within the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida and is a widely recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. As an award-winning forecaster, researcher, and professor, Snaith is always interested in the application of academic expertise to the solution of real world problems. Snaith has served as a consultant for a client list ranging from local and regional municipalities to multi-national corporations, including Compaq, Dell and IBM. He has held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, University of North Dakota and University of the Pacific. Snaith frequently appears in national and regional media and is sought after as a speaker. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune and has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business Channel. Known for his engaging presentations, one business editor wrote, “Snaith (has) an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels including USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Livingston Survey. In 2007 he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, besting UCLA, Wells Fargo and other esteemed forecasting groups. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. Snaith was recently named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and was one of just two academic economists making the list which was released in the December 2008 issue of Bloomberg Markets. For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

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