Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n
A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) The University of Central F lorida is
a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o
ser ving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding
populations, technological corridors,
and international partners. The mission
of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide
services that enhance the intellectual,
cultural, environmental, and economic
development of the metropolitan region, address national and international
issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the g l o b a l c o m m u n i t y.
A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n
and goals in providing intellectual
leadership through research, teaching, and ser vice. The college is striving
to enhance graduate programs, while
maintaining the strong undergraduate
base. The college delivers research and
quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral,
and executive levels to citizens of the
state of F lorida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.
With approximately 53,537 students, UCF is now the largest university in Florida, and the third largest in the nation. Several other Florida universities also boast extraordinarily large enrollments. Overall, our state’s community colleges and universities are experiencing a remarkable increase in enrollment. While Florida’s educational institutions may be growing in size, our economy is not. State unemployment figures have now surged higher than the national rate of unemployment. Further, it is predicted that job losses in Florida will persist until the second quarter of 2010. What will this mean for our graduates? Will they be able to find jobs? Will they leave the state upon graduation? I hope they choose to live and work in Florida. They are the future and we need them to stay here and help our economy. I have met many of our student entrepreneurs and other up-and-coming business leaders and they are quite impressive. Armed with a strong business education, they will be well-prepared to add tremendous value to the marketplace. As you read through this forecast, you will see that once again, Dr. Sean Snaith presents his information in an entertaining way. This time he uses a Halloween theme to predict the future of our state. How appropriate, considering the scary condition of our current economy. It is our future economy that we need to plan for. I am optimistic that if we remain patient, Florida will get through this downturn and come back even stronger. In addition to keeping our graduates here, we should recruit national and international businesses to relocate to our state. Not only will this help our unemployment rates, but it might have an impact on our housing sector as well. It is imperative we make all the right economic decisions now, so in the future, they will not come back to haunt us.
n o e K . L s a m o h T Sincerely,
Thomas L. Keon Dean
Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida
Fl o r i d a Fo r e c a s t 2010 - 2013 October 2009 Report
Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Laura Burkstrand, Researcher Erin Garlow, Researcher Cecilia Chirinos, Researcher McGregor Love, Researcher Evgenia Volkonitskaya, Researcher Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2009 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved. This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.
Table of Contents Florida Highlights and Summary.........................5-10 Florida Forecast Tables....................................... 12-17
Tab l e o f c o n te n t s
Florida Forecast Charts......................................19-26 Florida News Summaries......................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach......... 29-33 Gainesville........................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville.........................................................39-43 Lakeland.............................................................. 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach.............. 49-53 Naples-Marco Island........................................... 54-58 Ocala....................................................................59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee............................................64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee.......................................................... 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater...................84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89
F l o r ida Summa r y
H igh lights o f the F lo r ida
Gore-cast
2010 -2013
• The recession is dead, but the beating of the tell-tale chart grows louder. • Florida’s massive job losses will continue to accumulate through the end of 2009. After nearly three straight years of job losses, meager employment growth returns in the 2nd quarter of 2010. • Payroll employment in Florida will have declined by 719,000 jobs from 2007 Q1 through 2009 Q4. Paltry job growth reappears in Florida in 2010. Year-over-year job growth remains negative until the 4th quarter of 2010. • Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 1.7% in 2011, 2.9% in 2012, and 3.2% in 2013. It will be 2014 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • Florida’s labor market will continue to bother the state’s economy. Atonement perhaps for the sins of the housing market? Florida’s payroll employment will not reach pre-recession levels until the 1st quarter of 2014. • Unemployment rates, already in double digits, continue to slowly climb into 2010 with average unemployment peaking at 11.2%. Unemployment will stay above 10% through 2012 Q1 and then continue a painfully slow decline from its peak. • Unemployment will still be stubbornly high by the end of 2013 averaging 8.4% in the 4th quarter. • The sectors forecasted to have the strongest growth during 2010-2013 are Professional and Business Services (5.9%), Education and Health Services (2.2%), and Trade, Transportation and Utilities (2.2%). • Florida’s population is expected to decline again in 2009 and stay flat in 2010 before in-migration picks up and population growth slowly climbs to 1.5% in 2013. • Florida’s housing construction sector finally bottoms out deeper than many expected in 2009, falling to an annual rate of roughly 25,000 housing starts. Housing starts will climb over the next several years. In 2013, housing starts will recover to 2001 levels, rising gradually to 170,000 starts. • Sales of existing homes have shown strength in recent months as the 12-month moving average of sales has been on the rise since August 2008. However, prices are still struggling to find a bottom, and until this occurs, we will continue to have instability in the housing sector. • Real Gross State Product (GSP) growth was near zero in 2007 and contracted in 2008 at -1.6%. Growth will be strongly negative in 2009, with the economy contracting at -3.1% before expansion reappears in 2010, accelerates to 4.5% in 2012, and eases to 4.1% in 2013. • Personal income growth will contract -1.5% in 2009 before growth begins to accelerate in 2010 to 2.6%. In 2011-2013, personal income growth will average 5.6% and hit 6.2% in 2012. • Retail sales experienced a “cash for clunkers” bump in the 3rd quarter of 2009. The 4th quarter of 2009, encompassing the all-important holiday shopping season, will disappoint. Retail sales will come in almost $2 billion less than last year. Floridians are still grappling with extremely high unemployment, huge losses of home equity and stock market wealth and thus will be spending cautiously. • During 2010-2013, retail sales will steadily accelerate, after a weak 1st quarter of 2010, and will grow at an average pace of 5.1% as consumer spending returns, fueled by pent-up demand. Institute for Economic Competitiveness
5
F l o r ida Summa r y
Florida’s Economy: Still a Frightful Mess
The Tell- Tale Chart True! –nervous –very, very dreadfully nervous I had been and am; but why will you say that I am mad? The economic crisis had sharpened my senses –not destroyed –not dulled them. My mind’s eye had vision quite keen and even with my eyes closed I could see clearly, oh so very clearly. Above all was the sense of hearing acute. I could hear the data evolving, changing, being revised. Indeed I heard all things in the heaven and in the earth. I heard many things in hell. I however continued to hear my wife only intermittently, but alas that is another story. How, then, am I mad? Hearken! and observe how healthily –how calmly I can tell you the whole story. It is impossible to say how first the idea entered my brain; but once conceived, it haunted me day and night. Object there was none. Passion there was none. I loved the recession. It gave me purpose, made me feel wanted. Invitations that so sparsely came to this economist, OK - never came, had overwhelmed me. The recession never wronged me. He had never given me insult. I think it was the credit crunch! Yes, it was this! The recession had the unpleasant feature of a profoundly ugly credit crisis. Borrowers who played no role in the excesses of the housing market found themselves unable to borrow. Whenever I was confronted by this absence of lending, my blood ran cold; and so by degrees –very gradually –I made up my mind to forecast the end of the recession, and thus rid myself of this recession, and its hideous absence of lending, forever. Now this is the point. You fancy me mad. Madmen know nothing. But you should have seen me. You should have seen how wisely I proceeded –with what caution –with what foresight –with what dissimulation I went to work! I was never kinder to the recession than during the whole week before I forecasted the end of it. I spoke of its depth and length in terms befitting of royalty And every night, about midnight, I turned on my computer and typed oh so gently, cautiously - wearing gloves upon my hands so as to muffle the sounds of the clicking of the mouse and keyboard. Slowly I changed assumptions and solving and resolving the forecasting model - the numbers followed every movement I bade them. And this I did for seven long nights –every night just at midnight –but I found predicting an end to the recession
1
was impossible to do for it was not the recession that vexed me, but the absence of credit. And every morning, when the day broke, I went boldly into the next chamber of commerce, and spoke courageously about the recession, calling it by name in a hearty tone, and spoke how it had come to be so long and deep. So you see it would have been a very profound recession, indeed, to suspect that every night, just at twelve, I plotted and predicted its demise. Upon the eighth night I was more than usually cautious in turning on the computer. A watch’s minute hand moves more quickly than did mine. Never before that night had I felt the extent of my own powers –of my sagacity. I could scarcely contain my feelings of triumph. To think that there I was, building a prediction of the recession’s demise, little by little, and the Great Recession not even to dream of my secret deeds or thoughts. I fairly chuckled at the idea. When I had waited a long time, very patiently, I resolved to open a report on consumer borrowing to catch a glimpse of the flow of credit through the veins of the economy. Indeed to check the pulse of the lifeblood that feeds the economy. So I opened it –you cannot imagine how stealthily, stealthily. It was open –wide, wide open –and I grew furious as I gazed upon it. I saw it with perfect distinctness –yet another month of decline in consumer borrowing. Revolving and non-revolving consumer credit both had contracted again. Data—that chilled the very marrow in my bones And have I not told you that what you mistake for madness is but over-acuteness of the sense? –now, I say, there came to my ears a low, dull, quick sound, such as a watch makes when enveloped in cotton. I knew that sound well, too. It was the sound of worsening labor markets. It increased my fury, as the beating of a drum stimulates the soldier into courage. But even yet I refrained and kept still. I scarcely breathed. I held the mouse motionless. I tried how steadily I could maintain the cursor upon the Federal Reserve’s Consumer Credit Report. Meantime the hellish tattoo of the labor market increased. It grew quicker and quicker, and louder and louder every instant. Do you mark me well I have told you that I am nervous: so I am. And now at the dead hour of the night, amid the dreadful silence of my equity depleted house, so strange a noise as this excited me to uncontrollable terror, yet, for some minutes longer I refrained and sat still. But the deterioration of labor markets grew louder, louder! I thought the initial claims for unemployment must burst. And now a new anxiety seized me –the sound would be heard by my neighbor who
1. The following is copied, adapted and butchered horrifically from Edgar Allen Poe’s short story, The Tell Tale Heart 6
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
F l o r ida Summa r y
just the other day had told me the most horrible was yet a grandchild and other mundane events. The ringing to come for the economy. He asserted that things were became more distinct: –It continued and became more getting worse not better. Yes the very same neighbor who distinct: I talked more freely to get rid of the feeling: but had also reported me to the Home Owners Association it continued and gained definiteness –until, at length, I for a weedy flowerbed! He could surely hear the sound! found that the noise was not within my ears. No doubt The recession’s hour had come! With a loud yell, I threw I now grew very pale; –but I talked more fluently, and open the program and leaped into the window with a with a heightened voice. My brow moistened like dew single bound of the cursor. In an instant I forecasted an covered deadfall on the forest’s floor. Yet the sound of end to the recession –yes the third quarter would be the job losses increased –and what could I do? It was a low, start of the next expansion. I then smiled gaily, to find dull, quick sound –much such a sound as a watch makes the deed so far done. But, for many minutes, the labor when enveloped in cotton. I gasped for breath –and yet markets beat on with a muffled sound. This, however, the Rotarians heard it not. I talked more quickly –more did not vex me; it would not be heard through the wall. vehemently; but the noise steadily increased. I arose At length it ceased. The recession was dead. I moved the and argued about trifles, in a high key and with violent cursor and examined the data. Yes, it was stone, stone gesticulations; but the noise steadily increased. Why dead. The credit crunch would trouble me no more. would they not be gone? I paced the floor to and fro with heavy strides, as if excited to fury by the observations If still you think me mad, you will think so no longer of the men –but the noise steadily increased. Oh God! when I describe the wise precautions I took for the what could I do? I foamed –I raved –I swore! I swung the concealment of the remains of the recession. The night chair upon which I had been sitting, and grated it upon waned, and I worked hastily, but in silence. First of all, I the floor, but the noise of the labor market arose over all wrote of the quadruple policy bypass, how the combined and continually increased. It grew louder –louder –louder! impact of these policy actions would naturally lead to the And still the men chatted pleasantly, and smiled. Was it next expansion, and this was what ultimately led to the possible they heard not? Almighty God! –no, no! They recession’s end. I dismembered the recession, I cut off its heard! –they suspected! –they knew! –they were making a head and the arms and the legs. I then took the remains mockery of my horror! Of my predictions-this I thought, and placed them in, of all things, a gravy boat. Not a and this I think. But anything was better than this agony! coffin or an urn but A GRAVY BOAT! Who would Anything was more tolerable than this derision! I could suspect that this simple sauce dish could contain the gory bear those hypocritical smiles no longer! I felt that I must remains of my actions the night before? scream or die! and now –again! –hark! louder! louder! I then authored the forecast so cleverly, so cunningly, louder! louder! that no human eye could have detected anything wrong. “Villains!” I shrieked, “dissemble no more! I admit the When I had made an end of these labors, it was four deed! Turn on the projector! here, here! –It is the beating o’clock –still dark as midnight. I lay down to sleep a of his hideous chart!” peaceful few hours unburdened by the recession. As the alarm sounded the hour, I arose and Figure 1. showered, dressed and left to give my forecast presentation. The recession is dead, but the drumbeat of mounting job losses I went down to deliver my prognostications with a light heart, –for continues what had I now to fear? As I clicked from 12.0% slide to slide I smiled, –for what had I to fear? I spoke of the business cycle and the 10.0% recession’s end in a lighthearted manner and bade the attendees a hearty thank you. 8.0% The Rotarians were satisfied. My manner had convinced them. I was singularly at 6.0% ease. They sat and asked questions, and while I answered cheerily, they chatted of 4.0% familiar things. But, ere long, I felt myself getting pale and wished them gone. My head ached, and I fancied a ringing in my 2.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 ears: but still they sat and chattered. They gave their happy dollars. They FL Unemployment Rate droned on for what seemed like hours –a U.S. Unemployment Rate dollar for an anniversary, for the birth of
The Tell-Tale Chart
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
7
F l o r ida Summa r y
I know what you must be thinking, that I should have gone with the Great Pumpkin instead of something by Edgar Allen Poe. But labor markets are far too macabre to leave to Charles Schultz. The recession is dead but the tell-tale chart continues its steady beating upward. Job losses are mounting even though the recession is over. They will continue to haunt the country in the early stages of the recovery, especially here in Florida where unemployment will peak at over 11%.
stubbornly slow to thaw, particularly in Florida, where banks’ balance sheets are still under severe stress from a mounting commercial real estate crisis. Figures 2 and 3 depict data from the housing market for existing homes as released by the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR) and cover the housing market through September 2009. Sales (Figure 2) have rebounded nicely and median prices (Figure 3) are still searching for a firm bottom to their precipitous plunge.
Florida’s Haunted Housing Market
Sales still on the rise, but prices still have not come back from the dead We believe that housing starts have hit their nadir in Florida. As levels slowly start to climb, it will be welcome news to this beleaguered sector of the economy. But starts will be but the skeletal remains of what was once a thriving, vibrant cornerstone of Florida’s economy. The plague of the credit crunch is still upon us and population growth in Florida has lately resembled something out of the rust belt. Without the constant stream of new Floridians into the market, the demand for housing has suffered greatly. These factors will combine to keep the recovery in this sector dampened. Discussion of extending the $8,000 federal tax credit for first time buyers has picked up recently even amidst evidence of widespread cheating by those claiming to be first time buyers, even though they are not. This could help the lower end of the housing market, but in the current fiscal climate, it is anything but a sure bet. As vultures continue to pick over the corpses in the housing market, bank-owned properties and short sales, the imbalance between supply and demand is slowly resolving itself. The weakness of the recovery is not helping to speed this process along nor is the sorry state of the financial sector. This process will slowly play itself out over the next several years as the economic recovery that will be muted in its early stages gains momentum. Growth rates of housing starts will be exaggerated by the low levels from which they are recovering, levels that are LESS than 12% of the peak levels of starts that were reached in the 4th quarter of 2005. Those builders and developers that have survived the construction apocalypse will proceed with caution in pursuing new projects, due to their own wariness, and in larger part due to the limited access to financing. The credit freeze is 8
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
Figure 2. Housing Sales
Florida Single Family, Existing Homes 30000 Realtor Sales
25000
Moving Average 20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors
Year
Figure 3. Housing Sales
Florida
Single Family, Existing Homes $300,000.00 $250,000.00
Median Sales Price Moving Average
$200,000.00 $150,000.00 $100,000.00 $50,000.00 $-
Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors
Year
F l o r ida Summa r y
Any market in which there exists a surplus will see downward pressure on prices, as the market feels its way toward a new equilibrium. Prices continue to fall as housing inventories remain elevated across the state, and many buyers continue to have difficulty getting loans. However, the steep drop in prices has stimulated sales. The 12-month moving average (the less jagged of the two lines plotted on the graph) of existing home sales in Florida has been rising since August 2008 and continues to be pulled up by monthly sales that are higher than that moving average. Prices have fallen substantially, as Figure 3 clearly displays. In many parts of the state, prices have fallen below replacement costs. This is clearly a phenomenon that is short-run in nature and reflects a large number of distressed properties, foreclosures, and short sales. This clearly demonstrates that we are seeing an overshooting of prices on the way down as we saw them overshoot at the top of this cycle. Prices are trying to find a bottom and have bounced around the median price of $145,000. It is too soon to declare this as the low point for prices, but we appear to be in the neighborhood of a bottom. Hopefully we will be able to move up to a nicer price neighborhood soon, in the meantime make sure your doors and windows are locked.
Outlook for Florida 2010-2013 Gross State Product
The Dead Rise and Walk Again Their legs are stiff (rigor mortis) so it will take a few quarters before they pick up the pace. Florida’s economy continues to struggle in the midst of an interminable recession that promises to last longer than the national recession, which in our recently released U.S. Forecast, we predicted has come to an end following the 1.0% contraction of real GDP in the 2nd quarter of 2009. Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the state-level analogue to real GDP, will continue to decline throughout the remainder of 2009. The shape of the recovery in Florida will also resemble the “Gravy Boat” path of the national economy. Growth will be muted in the first several quarters and accelerate slowly in this expansion. From the 1st quarter of 2010, through the 2nd quarter of 2011, real GSP growth in Florida will average just 1.8%. Real GSP growth will accelerate in the latter half of 2011 and then will rise further to average 4.3% growth in 2012-2013 as the economy begins to produce at full strength once again.
Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $885 billion in 2013, as Florida continues closing in on becoming a trillion-dollar economy, a threshold that has been getting pushed further into the future by the long and deep recession. We have now pushed the date we are forecasting GSP to finally break the trilliondollar mark back to 2016. Whether it is today’s economy of nearly three-fourths of a trillion dollars, or the trillion dollar economy that Florida will eventually become, the Sunshine State represents one of the world’s largest economies.
Personal Income, Retail Sales, and Auto Sales
Dem Bones, Dem Bones, Dem Dry Bones Personal income growth continues a deceleration that began in 2007 and will continue through 2009, when personal income contracts at a -1.5% rate. Starting in 2010, personal income growth will exhibit a steady acceleration as the economy begins to gain momentum and finally grows once again after emerging from the longest recession in decades. In 2011, personal income growth is expected rise to 4.9%, and then in 2012, reaches a strong 6.1% rate of expansion before easing slightly to 5.7% in 2013. Real disposable income growth will continue to be depressed by the floundering economy, though price deflation and tax cuts have boosted real disposable income growth significantly in 2009 to 9.8%. A continued worsening of Florida’s labor markets and an unemployment rate expected to peak at 11.2%, and remain in double-digits until 2012, will result in a deceleration of real disposable income growth to 2.2% in 2010. In 2011-2013, with the economy fully emerged from recession, real disposable income will expand at an average pace of 2.6%. There remains significant uncertainty here, as future tax rates at both the federal and state level could lead to an even higher chunk of income going to the government than we are currently assuming. Consumers in Florida have been beleaguered, like their counterparts around the country, by vanishing home equity and evaporating stock market wealth. Wealth represents access to future consumption, and with so much wealth destroyed, consumers have cut back on spending today and have been working to try and rebuild nest eggs that may only be 50% of what they once were. This has resulted in a jump in the national saving rate that was for an extended period negative and now is between 4% and 5%.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
9
F l o r ida Summa r y
A consumer who feels poorer and who is saving more of his or her income to replenish shrunken nest eggs, or a consumer who is unemployed, is a consumer who is not spending (profound, I know). Reluctant consumers relieved that the apocalypse did not take place in the first half of 2009, did peek their heads out of their shells in the 3rd quarter of 2009 and spent a bit (no doubt helped by cash for clunkers, discussed below). However, they are unlikely to stick their necks all the way out and begin spending in large amounts because they are still fearful that if they do, their heads could yet be chopped off. With Florida’s labor markets remaining in a dismal state for a prolonged period, consumers will continue to be sluggish in their spending. Consumer confidence has shown a little life and the stock market has bounced back from the lows touched at the height of the financial crisis. None of this, of course, warrants a lavish spending spree, but spending did respond to the passing of the worst part of the recession and the abject fear and panic that coincided with that deep contraction. The grim reaper may have passed the consumer by, but they are still not 100% sure he won’t be passing by this way again. Retail sales in Florida will contract in the first half of 2009, but a long, slow road to recovery sets in during the 2nd quarter of 2010. While spending increased in the 3rd quarter of 2009, it is looking like yet another difficult holiday shopping season for retailers, as retail sales will actually be lower in the 4th quarter of 2009 than they were in the 4th quarter of 2008. Yet another dismal holiday shopping season will likely lead to more retail bankruptcies and additional foreclosure on commercial real estate. The recession, credit crunch, volatile energy prices, and a decimated domestic automotive industry will conspire to bring average new passenger car and truck registrations down overall for a fourth straight year in 2009. After four years of declines, we are forecasting new vehicle registrations to surge in the 3rd quarter of 2009, thanks to the “cash for clunkers” program, but this surge will be short lived and we expect that total registrations will contract again for the next two quarters. In the 2nd quarter of 2010, registrations will begin to climb once again, but will not reach the “cash for clunkers” levels until 2011. In 2012 and 2013, a much improved economy will help to drive new vehicle registration growth higher. In 2012, registration levels will hit 1.13 million, putting 2012 levels on par with those recorded in 1998. In 2013 registrations should reach nearly 1.3 million.
10
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
Employment Overall payroll employment growth in the state is expected to shrink by -4.5% for 2009; after contracting at a rate of -3.2% in 2008. National job growth is expected to be -3.7% for 2009 after contracting by -0.4% in 2008 versus 2007. Job losses in Florida will persist throughout the remainder of 2009. Even though payrolls will begin to grow in 2010, the average level of employment in 2010 will still be below the average for 2009. Once payroll growth does take root, it will only slowly gain momentum throughout 2011, a year when job growth is expected to come in at 1.7%, reach 2.9% in 2012, and 3.2% in 2013. Despite the acceleration of job growth it will be 2014 before employment levels return to their pre-recession peak. The job market will haunt us for years after the recession has ended. The Construction sector, which has been collapsing since peaking in 2006 during the housing boom, will continue to show the painful effects of the credit freeze and a burgeoning crisis in commercial construction markets. Job creation from the shovel-ready projects that will be funded by the federal economic stimulus plan, have to date been as elusive as Linus’s Great Pumpkin. Eventually these projects will help resurrect jobs in this sector. The bottom of the residential real estate market will give way to tepid growth, but not enough to have a major impact on employment in this sector. Despite the economic stimulus bill, this sector will be the worstperforming sector in the economy on average through 2013, as far as job growth is concerned. Cumulative job losses in the sector have been catastrophic. It will likely be more than a decade or longer before the construction jobs lost during this recession are recouped. Job growth will not return to this sector until the 3rd quarter of 2011. Growth is expected to surge to 4.8% in 2012 and 7.2% in 2013, as the commercial sector joins the residential sector in recovery and the overall economic turnaround is in full swing. This has been an equal opportunity recession. Job losses have transcended virtually all sectors of the economy; plumbers and professors, laborers and lawyers have all lost their jobs during this recession. The white collar job losses have been reflected in the performance of the Professional and Business Services sector. Job losses in this sector will approach 180,000 by the end of 2009. Once the economy gets past the recession and after a slow first year of recovery, this sector will resume robust growth in Florida. In 2010, job growth is expected to turn positive after two-and-a-half years of job losses. Job gains accelerate from there and rise to 7.3% in 2011, 8.1% in 2012, and 7.0% in 2013.
F l o r ida Summa r y
The Information sector will continue to shed jobs through the middle of 2010. Newspapers continue to struggle amidst the structural change gripping the industry. Advertising revenues have fallen off dramatically, thanks in large part to the woes of the automotive industry, and the major newspapers and publishing groups that are teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, while they try to figure out a model that will work in the Internet Age. 2011 will be the first year of job growth in this sector after eight of the nine prior years of job losses, including five straight years of job losses leading up to 2011. Job growth will jump to 2.1% in 2011, and will more or less stabilize in 2012-2013. The one sector that has continued to create jobs during this recession thus far, and is expected to continue to expand through the end of our forecast horizon, is the Health and Education sector. During 2009-2013, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.2%. The average growth rate for payroll employment during the same time frame is expected to be 1.4%. It is difficult to tell how healthcare reform will play itself out in Washington, D.C., but clearly the momentum is toward expanding coverage. Couple that with an aging population in Florida, and it seems clear that demand for health services will be strong in the foreseeable future. This demand will continue drive job growth in this sector. Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida through 2010. The dual forces of globalization and productivity gains (more productive employees means that firms need fewer of them to produce the same level of output) in manufacturing have combined to reduce employment in this sector. We are expecting to see job growth of 1.0% in this sector for the full year in 2011, and this will be followed by an even stronger year of job growth in 2012, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 3.8%. For the first time since the mid-1990s, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in two consecutive years. The weakening dollar will help make American manufactured goods more competitive overseas. This, coupled with an economic recovery in full swing by 2012, will help drive this job growth.
Unemployment
How high will unemployment get? We are expecting unemployment to rise to 11.2% in the 1st quarter of 2010, and remain above 10% until the 1st quarter of 2012. Thereafter, unemployment will begin a slow decline through the end of 2013. There is no reason to believe that there will be a rapid reversal in the unemployment rate over the forecast horizon without a robust recovery to drive down this rate. As we saw during the boom, strong growth can quickly and dramatically ratchet down the unemployment rate, but weak growth only slowly erodes high unemployment.
Unemployment rates in the state plunged to incredibly low levels (reaching a nadir of 3.3%) during the white hot housing boom. Florida’s unemployment rate was more than a full percentage point below the historically low national unemployment rate. Unemployment in Florida has now surged higher than the national rate of unemployment, and we expect that the rate of unemployment will remain above the national rate (see The Tell-Tale Chart above), though both will peak in 2010. After the peak, Florida’s unemployment rate will decline more slowly and will remain above the national unemployment rate, as the “gravy boat” recovery plays itself out. Institute for Economic Competitiveness
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F l o r ida Summa r y T ab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)
495.5 3.5 2.0 478.5 2.1 3.8 428.2 4.4 3.3 522.8 4.7 497.3 2.6
514.4 3.8 3.5 487.1 1.8 2.5 442.1 3.3 2.5 559.7 7.0 520.4 4.6
565.7 10.0 6.0 521.8 7.1 10.1 471.1 6.5 3.4 606.9 8.4 548.6 5.4
614.4 8.6 5.5 550.6 5.5 4.3 489.2 3.9 1.3 667.9 10.0 589.3 7.4
Personal Income and GSP 668.5 699.2 713.7 702.7 8.8 4.6 2.1 -1.5 7.5 5.6 2.9 -2.0 582.9 594.2 587.0 625.6 5.9 2.0 -1.2 6.6 7.6 -4.2 0.1 -5.2 517.2 524.7 523.5 575.0 5.7 1.5 -0.2 9.8 4.0 2.2 0.5 0.4 721.9 741.0 745.9 734.8 8.1 2.7 0.7 -1.5 613.6 613.4 603.5 584.9 4.1 0.0 -1.6 -3.1
721.3 2.6 2.5 649.7 4.0 2.8 594.4 3.6 0.3 754.5 2.7 594.3 1.6
756.7 4.9 4.2 669.1 3.0 4.9 607.4 2.2 1.5 787.4 4.4 611.2 2.8
803.4 6.2 5.4 698.7 4.4 4.7 629.1 3.6 3.0 835.7 6.1 638.9 4.5
849.6 5.7 5.4 727.5 4.1 6.9 642.5 2.1 2.0 885.0 5.9 665.3 4.1
Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
0.5 1.6 5.7 5.8
1.6 1.2 5.3 6.0
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 2.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 -0.7 -5.1 -1.9 1.0 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.2 1.6 -0.7 -1.0 0.5 4.7 3.8 3.4 4.1 6.2 10.3 11.1 10.7 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8 9.2 10.2 9.8
2.5 1.3 9.6 8.8
2.8 1.7 8.6 8.0
2.4 2.9 1.6 4.8 3.8 -0.1 5.7 5.3 3.8 1.1 2.3 8.1 1.7 1.8 -0.7 -0.3 1.1
2.3 3.2 1.3 7.2 3.5 0.1 5.1 5.2 4.0 1.8 2.3 7.0 1.2 1.8 1.2 0.3 2.4
NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.
Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)
(%Ch Year ago)
12
-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.1 -5.8 -3.6 -7.0 -2.8 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.7
-0.3 1.1 -1.2 3.8 -4.2 -3.3 -4.7 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.2 1.5 3.7 1.8 -3.7 3.4 1.1
1.1 3.4 0.2 9.4 0.2 -2.1 1.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.8 3.0 4.4 -2.1 0.4 1.4
1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.4 1.2 -1.8 2.6 3.8 4.1 4.1 5.0 7.1 2.5 2.7 0.2 1.5 1.4
1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.2 0.2 -2.0 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.0 3.2 4.2 2.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 2.0
1.1 0.2 1.6 -8.8 -4.2 -1.5 -5.4 0.1 1.5 0.5 -1.0 0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3 0.2 2.4
-0.4 -3.2 -5.2 -17.1 -6.6 -6.3 -6.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.9 -3.7 -5.3 2.3 -1.4 -3.5 1.3 0.4
-3.7 -4.5 -4.0 -16.5 -9.9 -10.2 -9.7 -5.4 -3.0 -4.7 -3.8 -7.1 1.1 -4.0 -6.8 -1.1 -0.9
-0.8 -0.6 -3.4 -8.0 -5.0 -4.4 -5.3 -3.6 -1.9 0.1 -2.2 1.0 2.9 0.1 -6.2 3.5 -0.9
1.6 1.7 0.1 -0.4 1.0 -1.2 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 7.3 2.9 0.3 2.1 -4.3 -0.2
Population and Migration 16,686.2 16,989.6 17,362.5 17,737.0 18,032.9 18,215.6 18,272.5 18,209.6 18,206.8 18,270.5 18,464.3 18,746.8 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 64.8 71.9 83.8 72.9 44.7 5.4 -96.9 -55.9 -22.7 11.3 42.7 56.9 -1.4 12.2 19.2 -12.9 -41.0 -109.2 -417.7 42.5 60.1 184.3 471.0 39.8
182.7 133.6 49.1
207.7 159.9 47.9
238.8 183.1 55.6
272.9 211.6 61.3
204.8 156.3 48.5
Housing 101.6 62.2 74.8 42.0 26.8 20.2
38.7 29.9 8.8
57.1 49.7 7.4
98.0 85.8 12.2
142.9 116.9 26.0
170.0 130.2 39.8
1.7
2.6
3.0
4.5
4.2
Consumer Prices 3.4 4.2
0.0
1.9
2.4
2.2
1.9
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
F l o r ida Summa r y T ab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)
701.4 -2.1 -2.6 638.0 9.5 -6.4 587.5 13.1 0.7 737.7 -1.8 586.8 -2.9
703.2 -0.6 -1.7 638.0 9.6 -3.8 587.9 13.2 0.1 740.9 0.7 588.0 -0.5
Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
-5.8 -1.3 10.7 9.6
-6.4 -2.4 11.1 10.0
709.9 1.2 1.2 643.2 11.2 0.1 587.8 11.3 -0.4 746.8 2.3 591.1 1.5
717.3 1.8 2.0 647.9 0.0 2.8 592.7 -0.6 -0.7 751.2 2.8 592.7 1.7
725.3 3.4 3.1 651.9 2.2 3.8 597.0 1.6 1.0 756.4 2.5 594.9 1.4
Personal Income and GSP 732.7 740.6 750.4 762.0 4.2 4.3 4.6 5.1 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.3 655.8 659.7 665.2 672.0 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.1 4.6 5.1 5.2 5.0 599.9 598.0 603.4 610.4 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 763.7 771.6 781.7 793.0 3.1 3.3 4.1 4.8 598.6 602.1 607.8 614.4 1.8 1.9 2.5 3.3
774.0 5.6 4.6 679.7 3.6 4.3 617.7 3.0 2.0 803.5 5.2 620.5 3.7
785.9 6.1 5.1 687.0 4.1 4.3 620.3 3.7 2.9 816.9 5.9 628.1 4.3
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) -3.8 -2.2 -1.2 -0.4 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.1 -1.8 -1.2 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.3 10.0 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.2
798.2 6.4 5.5 695.5 4.5 4.3 627.3 4.0 3.2 829.2 6.1 635.3 4.5
809.6 6.2 5.6 702.9 4.6 4.8 632.4 3.6 3.1 841.9 6.2 642.5 4.6
820.1 6.0 5.5 709.3 4.4 5.6 636.3 3.0 2.8 854.7 6.4 649.7 4.7
2.4 1.2 9.8 8.9
2.7 1.3 9.4 8.6
2.8 1.5 9.1 8.4
2.4 2.8 1.4 4.7 4.0 -0.1 6.0 5.3 3.8 1.1 2.0 7.9 1.9 1.6 -0.9 -0.4 0.8
2.5 3.1 2.0 5.3 4.1 0.0 6.0 5.3 3.5 1.5 2.7 8.2 1.4 2.2 -0.6 -0.1 1.3
2.6 3.3 2.3 5.8 3.9 -0.1 5.7 5.5 3.9 1.4 3.0 8.7 1.2 2.5 -0.4 0.1 1.7
NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.
-4.2 -4.5 -3.4 -15.5 -10.7 -10.8 -10.6 -5.5 -3.0 -4.8 -3.7 -6.9 0.9 -4.4 -7.0 -1.8 -1.2
-3.7 -3.7 -5.8 -13.5 -9.7 -8.6 -10.2 -4.6 -2.7 -2.5 -3.7 -6.5 0.4 -2.8 -5.9 -1.5 -1.1
-2.4 -2.1 -5.6 -9.3 -7.9 -6.7 -8.4 -5.7 -2.1 -1.4 -3.3 -0.5 0.8 -2.4 -7.3 0.3 -1.4
-1.1 -0.9 -4.3 -9.0 -5.7 -4.1 -6.5 -4.7 -2.1 -0.2 -1.9 -0.9 3.0 0.3 -8.2 10.1 -0.8
-0.2 -0.1 -2.8 -7.8 -4.0 -3.6 -4.1 -2.7 -1.8 0.9 -1.8 0.9 3.8 1.4 -6.4 3.5 -0.8
0.6 0.8 -1.0 -5.7 -2.6 -3.2 -2.2 -1.3 -1.7 1.1 -1.6 4.6 3.9 1.3 -3.0 0.0 -0.8
1.2 1.2 0.3 -3.9 -0.9 -2.2 -0.2 -0.4 -1.3 1.3 -1.0 5.3 3.4 1.0 1.8 -2.1 -0.5
1.4 1.5 -0.1 -1.1 0.7 -1.3 1.7 1.1 0.1 0.5 -0.4 7.4 3.0 0.3 3.6 -9.9 -0.3
1.7 1.9 -0.1 1.3 1.8 -0.8 3.0 2.7 1.7 -0.3 0.4 8.9 2.5 -0.2 2.7 -4.2 -0.1
1.9 2.1 0.3 2.3 2.4 -0.4 3.8 4.2 3.0 -0.1 1.3 7.8 2.4 0.2 0.6 -1.2 0.1
2.2 2.5 0.6 3.6 3.3 -0.2 5.0 5.1 4.0 0.2 1.6 7.7 2.3 1.1 -0.9 -0.7 0.4
Population and Migration Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)
18,203.7 18,207.0 18,213.6 18,203.5 18,201.7 18,208.4 18,223.4 18,250.9 18,284.2 18,323.3 18,368.1 18,430.5 18,495.2 18,563.6
-0.4 -42.8 57.2
-0.1 -40.3 55.8
-0.1 -37.7 59.2
0.0 -25.2 47.5
0.0 -17.7 58.8
0.0 -10.1 74.9
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)
38.5 31.9 6.7
43.7 37.5 6.2
50.2 42.2 8.0
54.1 46.5 7.7
58.0 51.3 6.8
65.9 58.7 7.2
(%Ch Year ago)
-0.8
1.6
2.3
2.3
1.5
1.7
0.1 -2.5 93.4
0.3 10.0 139.7
0.5 15.8 189.7
0.6 0.8 21.7 27.5 314.3 1200.0
1.0 45.0 350.0
1.2 47.3 198.7
1.3 51.0 135.1
Housing 77.6 92.0 69.0 81.4 8.7 10.6
105.5 92.2 13.3
116.7 100.5 16.2
126.0 106.5 19.4
137.1 114.5 22.7
149.9 121.5 28.4
158.8 125.2 33.6
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.0
1.9
Consumer Prices 2.1 2.4
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
13
F l o r ida Summa r y T ab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly*
2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm
7,373.8 7,337.6 7,340.1 7,356.7 7,367.8 7,394.0 7,425.1 7,465.3 7,508.8 7,552.9 7,609.6 7,675.9 7,740.5 7,801.9
Manufacturing
329.9
326.8
321.8
317.8
316.8
318.4
319.0
320.0
322.5
326.2
329.7
332.7
335.6
338.8
Durable Goods
222.2
219.8
216.2
213.2
213.0
214.9
215.8
216.8
219.4
223.1
226.6
229.7
232.6
235.8
Wood Products
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.8
11.1
11.3
11.4
11.6
11.9
12.1
12.3
12.5
12.8
Computer & Electronics
44.6
44.1
43.9
44.0
44.0
44.3
43.4
43.2
43.3
43.6
43.9
44.1
44.2
44.2
Transportation Equipment 1,352.4 1,391.9 1,384.3 1,360.5 1,352.5 1,363.0 1,370.6 1,372.6 1,387.0 1,414.0 1,441.6 1,463.9 1,487.4 1,514.2 Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction
107.7
106.9
105.6
104.6
103.9
103.5
103.3
103.2
103.1
103.1
103.0
103.0
103.0
103.0
27.2
27.1
27.0
27.0
27.0
27.0
26.9
26.9
26.9
26.9
27.0
27.0
27.0
27.0
7,043.9 7,010.8 7,018.3 7,039.0 7,050.9 7,075.6 7,106.1 7,145.4 7,186.3 7,226.7 7,280.0 7,343.1 7,404.8 7,463.1 6.1
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.0
6.1
420.5
411.8
403.2
393.3
387.6
388.2
387.5
388.9
392.5
397.2
401.4
407.1
413.2
420.2
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
228.5
224.6
223.3
222.6
222.3
221.7
222.5
225.1
228.3
231.1
233.9
237.0
240.5
243.8
Wholesale Trade
337.1
334.8
332.9
331.7
330.9
329.1
328.7
332.1
336.4
339.1
341.8
344.9
348.2
352.1
Retail Trade
937.4
937.1
936.6
939.7
945.5
947.8
948.8
944.2
942.4
947.0
951.0
954.4
956.7
960.1
Information
144.2
141.6
136.8
134.4
135.0
137.4
139.2
139.2
138.6
138.2
138.0
137.9
137.8
137.6
Prof. & Business Services
1,063.1 1,049.9 1,065.8 1,068.4 1,072.8 1,097.7 1,122.1 1,147.0 1,168.0 1,183.1 1,208.6 1,237.9 1,264.3 1,286.2
Admin. & Support
542.3
535.8
557.6
563.6
567.4
587.1
606.6
623.8
638.3
646.5
665.9
690.0
710.7
726.9
Prof. Sci & Tech
440.8
433.9
427.7
424.1
424.3
429.2
433.9
441.1
447.3
453.7
459.2
464.0
469.4
474.8
80.0
80.2
80.4
80.7
81.1
81.4
81.6
82.1
82.4
82.9
83.4
83.8
84.2
84.4
Financial Activities
Mgmt. of Co.
504.1
501.1
498.9
497.0
494.9
493.0
493.8
495.0
497.0
499.2
501.5
505.0
510.3
514.3
Real Estate & Rent
169.9
169.8
169.9
169.6
169.4
169.3
169.7
170.3
171.1
171.9
172.7
173.7
175.1
175.9
334.3
331.3
329.0
327.5
325.5
323.7
324.0
324.7
326.0
327.3
328.8
331.4
335.2
338.3
Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government
1,057.4 1,061.6 1,070.9 1,084.0 1,097.3 1,103.4 1,107.5 1,116.5 1,125.3 1,130.2 1,133.5 1,137.7 1,141.2 1,144.0 136.0
136.2
136.4
136.2
136.5
136.6
136.5
136.3
136.2
136.1
135.9
135.9
136.1
136.3
921.5
925.4
934.5
947.8
960.8
966.8
971.1
980.3
989.1
994.2
997.6 1,001.7 1,005.1 1,007.7
898.9
897.8
898.3
906.4
911.1
909.2
907.7
909.0
908.9
911.3
917.4
923.6
928.9
934.4
331.3
331.0
333.2
334.2
335.9
336.1
337.1
337.4
337.8
338.4
338.9
339.1
340.2
341.3
1,115.3 1,113.5 1,112.5 1,121.5 1,111.7 1,106.1 1,105.2 1,105.0 1,105.3 1,106.0 1,107.9 1,112.6 1,117.5 1,123.2
Federal Gov't.
127.7
127.9
129.8
140.7
132.1
127.9
127.1
126.8
126.5
126.3
126.3
126.3
126.4
126.5
State & Local Gov't.
987.6
985.7
982.6
980.8
979.6
978.2
978.0
978.2
978.7
979.7
981.6
986.3
991.1
996.7
*Quarterly at an annual rate
14
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
F l o r ida Summa r y T ab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm
7,169.0 7,250.4 7,499.3 7,800.0 8,002.4 8,018.5 7,761.1 7,409.1 7,364.7 7488.04 7,707.0 7,949.6
Manufacturing
428.0
409.8
410.7
415.5
416.4
399.0
372.6
335.8
318.7
321.9
334.2
346.0
Durable Goods
283.4
270.0
273.8
281.0
284.6
269.2
250.9
226.5
214.3
218.8
231.2
242.9
18.1
17.6
20.3
22.4
21.6
17.0
13.0
11.0
10.8
11.6
12.4
13.3
59.7
53.4
52.5
51.4
50.1
49.2
48.0
45.5
44.1
43.4
44.1
44.4
Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining
1,829.8 1,775.1 1,766.7 1,772.3 1,768.9 1,711.8 1,605.7 1,374.4 1,365.1 1,386.0 1,476.8 1,578.1 144.6
139.8
136.9
134.5
131.8
129.8
121.7
109.2
104.4
103.1
103.0
103.1
35.2
34.1
33.3
32.4
31.2
31.4
29.5
27.4
27.0
26.9
27.0
27.0
6,741.0 6,840.5 7,088.6 7,384.6 7,586.0 7,619.5 7,388.5 7,073.3 7,045.9 7,166.1 7,372.8 7,603.6 7.2
7.1
7.1
7.1
6.6
6.7
6.4
6.1
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.1
Construction
500.5
519.7
568.5
633.1
677.9
618.6
512.8
427.3
393.1
391.5
410.5
439.9
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
242.4
234.7
238.3
247.3
250.9
251.0
244.1
230.8
222.5
226.8
238.8
251.3
Wholesale Trade
315.7
317.3
328.0
341.4
351.4
356.7
348.1
337.7
331.1
334.1
346.8
360.7
Retail Trade
930.7
928.4
953.7
993.1 1,012.8 1,017.5
988.2
941.5
942.4
945.6
955.5
973.2
Information
172.8
166.3
162.9
163.2
155.6
145.0
135.9
138.8
137.8
139.5
Prof. & Business Services
161.7
161.3
1,004.9 1,020.3 1,079.5 1,155.5 1,203.6 1,211.9 1,147.4 1,065.4 1,076.2 1,155.1 1,249.2 1,336.6
Admin. & Support
557.2
563.6
600.5
646.7
672.8
670.8
610.9
544.8
568.9
628.8
698.4
761.8
Prof. Sci & Tech
376.8
384.9
404.0
431.2
451.5
460.1
454.8
440.6
426.3
444.0
466.9
489.6
70.9
71.8
75.0
77.7
79.4
81.0
81.8
80.0
80.9
82.3
84.0
85.2
Financial Activities
Mgmt. of Co.
481.1
491.8
510.4
535.8
552.6
547.2
526.9
507.0
495.9
496.3
507.8
519.7
Real Estate & Rent
154.5
157.7
166.5
176.6
182.4
178.1
173.2
170.8
169.5
170.8
174.4
177.6
369.2
353.7
336.2
326.4
325.5
333.4
342.0
Fin. & Insurance
326.6
334.1
343.9
359.1
370.2
Edu. & Health Service
884.9
917.5
944.7
967.8
993.6 1,024.1 1,047.3 1,058.5 1,088.9 1,119.9 1,139.1 1,152.9
Education Services
101.5
110.0
118.7
124.6
128.3
134.1
137.9
Health Services
136.6
136.5
136.3
136.0
136.4
783.3
807.5
826.0
843.3
865.3
890.0
909.4
921.9
952.5
983.7 1,003.1 1,016.5
Leisure & Hospitality
846.4
862.0
899.9
924.3
937.7
956.4
942.9
905.2
906.2
909.2
926.1
942.4
Other Services
315.3
322.3
329.4
334.9
338.0
345.5
340.6
331.0
334.8
337.7
339.9
342.2
Government
1,039.2 1,053.0 1,066.3 1,081.1 1,099.1 1,122.6 1,128.0 1,117.9 1,112.9 1,105.3 1,115.3 1,139.2
Federal Gov't.
122.2
126.3
126.8
128.7
127.7
128.0
129.6
128.2
132.6
126.7
126.3
126.7
State & Local Gov't.
917.0
926.8
939.5
952.4
971.4
994.6
998.4
989.6
980.3
978.6
988.9 1,012.5
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
15
F l o r ida Summa r y T ab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*
2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
701.4
703.2
709.9
717.3
725.3
732.7
740.6
750.4
762.0
774.0
785.9
798.2
809.6
820.1
Wages & Salaries
322.6
322.8
325.3
327.6
329.7
332.4
335.5
338.7
342.3
345.9
350.6
355.7
360.9
366.2
Other Labor Income
74.1
74.4
75.1
76.1
77.1
77.9
78.8
79.9
81.1
82.3
83.4
84.8
86.3
87.7
Nonfarm
37.7
38.2
38.4
38.9
39.3
39.9
40.4
41.0
41.4
41.8
42.3
42.9
43.6
44.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Property Income
178.8
179.2
181.3
183.8
187.0
189.7
192.5
196.1
201.1
206.4
211.3
215.9
219.2
221.6
Transfer Payments
135.3
136.1
138.2
139.5
141.2
142.2
143.8
145.7
147.6
149.7
151.7
153.1
154.7
156.1
Social Insurance
49.3
49.7
50.5
50.8
51.2
51.7
52.8
53.3
53.8
54.5
55.9
56.6
57.5
58.4
Personal Income
638.0
638.0
643.2
647.9
651.9
655.8
659.7
665.2
672.0
679.7
687.0
695.5
702.9
709.3
Wages & Salaries
Farm
Billions 2000 Dollars
293.4
292.9
294.7
295.9
296.4
297.5
298.9
300.3
301.8
303.7
306.5
309.9
313.4
316.8
Other Labor Income
67.4
67.5
68.0
68.7
69.3
69.7
70.2
70.9
71.6
72.3
72.9
73.9
74.9
75.9
Nonfarm
34.3
34.6
34.8
35.2
35.3
35.7
36.0
36.3
36.5
36.7
37.0
37.4
37.9
38.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Farm Property Income
162.7
162.6
164.3
166.0
168.1
169.8
171.5
173.8
177.3
181.3
184.7
188.1
190.3
191.7
Transfer Payments
123.1
123.5
125.2
126.0
126.9
127.3
128.1
129.1
130.2
131.5
132.6
133.4
134.3
135.0
44.8
45.1
45.8
45.9
46.1
46.3
47.0
47.3
47.5
47.9
48.8
49.4
50.0
50.6
849.9
723.2
702.9
714.7
750.9
782.9
849.6
904.2
Social Insurance
New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations
957.2 1009.3 1059.0 1103.3 1149.7 1192.9
Retail Sales (Billions $)
244.6
243.8
243.5
245.1
249.2
252.5
255.7
258.9
263.3
268.6
273.3
277.3
280.9
284.6
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)
222.5
221.2
220.6
221.4
224.0
226.0
227.8
229.5
232.2
235.8
238.9
241.6
243.9
246.2
*Quarterly at an annual rate
16
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
F l o r ida Summa r y T ab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
495.5
514.4
565.7
614.4
668.5
699.2
713.7
702.7
721.3
756.7
803.4
849.6
Wages & Salaries
247.1
258.7
279.5
303.0
325.2
335.4
332.8
323.6
328.7
340.6
358.4
379.9
Other Labor Income
51.8
56.2
61.5
68.2
71.0
72.1
72.3
73.6
76.5
80.6
85.6
91.2
Nonfarm
29.0
30.7
33.8
37.0
39.9
39.8
39.6
38.0
39.1
41.1
43.3
46.5
Farm Property Income
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
122.0
120.1
136.7
152.1
176.7
190.5
197.0
180.7
185.5
199.0
217.0
229.7
Transfer Payments
80.4
85.5
94.6
98.5
103.6
110.4
120.8
134.6
140.3
146.7
153.9
160.6
Social Insurance
37.1
39.1
42.5
46.4
49.8
51.0
50.9
49.7
51.1
53.6
57.1
61.0
Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income
478.5
487.1
521.8
550.6
582.9
594.2
587.0
625.6
649.7
669.1
698.7
727.5
Wages & Salaries
238.6
245.0
257.8
271.5
283.6
285.1
273.8
288.0
296.1
301.2
311.6
325.3
Other Labor Income
50.1
53.2
56.7
61.1
61.9
61.3
59.4
65.5
68.9
71.2
74.4
78.1
Nonfarm
28.1
29.1
31.2
33.2
34.8
33.8
32.6
33.8
35.3
36.4
37.7
39.8
Farm
0.7
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
117.8
113.8
126.0
136.3
154.0
161.9
162.0
160.8
167.1
176.0
188.7
196.7
Transfer Payments
77.6
80.9
87.2
88.3
90.3
93.9
99.4
120.0
126.3
129.7
133.8
137.5
Social Insurance
35.9
37.0
39.2
41.5
43.4
43.4
41.8
44.2
46.0
47.4
49.7
52.2
Property Income
New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations
1302.6
1397.3
1442.7
1449.7
1416.7
1242.2
952.0
733.4
737.8
930.1
1126.2
1293.9
Retail Sales (Billions $)
196.6
206.5
225.2
245.1
263.7
269.1
263.1
242.4
247.6
261.6
279.0
293.1
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)
189.9
195.6
207.8
219.6
230.0
228.7
216.4
215.8
223.0
231.3
242.6
251.0
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
17
on & Health ployment
ds)
October 2009
cha r t s
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
F l o r ida F OR E C A S T
F l o r ida C ha r t s
Florida Personal Income (% change year ago)
12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Florida Real Gross State Product (% change year ago)
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Institute for Economic Competitiveness
19
F l o r ida C ha r t s
Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate
Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)
700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0
20
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
F l o r ida C ha r t s
Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)
500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)
1650.0 1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Institute for Economic Competitiveness
21
F l o r ida C ha r t s
Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)
560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0 440.0 420.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)
1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0
22
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
F l o r ida C ha r t s
Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)
1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Florida Information Employment (Thousands)
190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Institute for Economic Competitiveness
23
F l o r ida C ha r t s
Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)
145.0 140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)
1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0
24
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
F l o r ida C ha r t s
Florida Housing Starts 300.0
(Thousands)
250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates
8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%
New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (% change year ago)
30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Institute for Economic Competitiveness
25
F l o r ida C ha r t s
Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
(% change year ago)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Gross State Product
Florida Employment (Thousands)
8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Wage & Salary Employment
Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)
6% 4% 2% 0% -2%
26
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL CPI
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
F l o r ida Ne w s Summa r ie s Cities sue to block lawmakers’ growth management repeal • A group of local governments has filed a lawsuit in Leon County Circuit Court, accusing Governor Christ and the Florida Legislature of forcing the public to pay more for roads that serve new strip malls, planned communities, and other developments that were previously financed by developers. • Developers argue that their funds are often used for relieving existing traffic congestion, rather than the traffic generated by their projects.
Judge gives Niagara Bottling company go-ahead to tap water from aquifer • An administrative-law judge in Groveland recommended that Niagara Bottling, LLC, a water bottler based in California, be granted a permit to draw 484,000 gallons of water a day from the south Lake County aquifer. • The St. Johns River Water Management District must decide whether to approve the permit by September 21.
Cuts cost 159 state workers jobs • State budget cuts have contributed to 159 state employee layoffs in the new fiscal year. • As a result of the recent decline in revenues, legislators have cut the budget to $66.5 billion from $69.5 billion a year ago. • The largest layoffs were in the Agency for Persons with Disabilities, with 43 fewer employees, the Department of Education, with 41 layoffs, and the Justice Administrative Commission, which lost 34 employees.
Florida bank “watch list” expands • One-third of Florida’s state financial institutions showed weaknesses and were on the Florida Office of Financial Regulation watch list. These institutions represent 47.4% of the state’s total assets. • The number of state financial institutions under administrative action is increasing as well, from 98 under administrative action on March 31, to 173 institutions as of June 30. This recent number represents 51% of the total institutions in the state.
Source: Orlando Sentinel, July 8, 2009
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, July 14, 2009
TECO Energy profit up 18.5 percent despite fewer customers • TECO Energy Inc., a Tampa-based utility, saw an 18.5% increase in second quarter net income, from $51.4 million to $60.9 million since the same period last year. • Despite fewer customers at Tampa Electric and Peoples Gas, the utility expects earnings per share in 2009 of $1 to $1.15. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, July 28, 2009
Pinched school boards dare to raise taxes • Florida legislators gave the option to school boards to raise property taxes by 25-cents-per-$1000 without voter approval. • As a way to offset budget cuts, many county school boards are taking advantage of the option despite the political risks involved. • Schools are using the funds for various necessities; from insurance, rehiring teachers, and school renovation projects, to putting money aside in preparation for future cuts. Source: Orlando Sentinel, August 3, 2009
Source: Orlando Sentinel, August 8, 2009
Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 12, 2009
UCF tops UF as state’s largest university • Enrollment at the University of Florida fell below the University of Central Florida’s enrollment for the first time. UF reported nearly 49,200 enrolled students, while UCF’s enrollment for the fall semester is expected to be in excess of 52,000 students. • UCF’s enrollment growth is largely fueled by a growth in transfer students and is expected to increase by 1,750 students compared to last year’s enrollment. At the same time, UF’s freshman class has 3,000 fewer students than last fall—the smallest freshman class size in a decade. Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 24, 2009
Florida Senate’s delay on drilling, Seminole gambling pact is a good idea • The President of the Florida Senate, Jeff Atwater-R, wrote a letter to Governor Crist in September stating that the Senate will not approve the Governor’s gambling deal with the Seminole Tribe of Florida. The Senate currently has questions about the deal that need addressing. • Additionally, Atwater wrote a memo to the Senate, requiring a “thoughtful and deliberative process” of debating the topic of offshore oil drilling. Source: St. Petersburg Times, September 13, 2009
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
27
M et r o s
October 20 09
F l o r ida F OR E C A S T
D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each
P r o fi l e s The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500. Quick Facts:
• Population estimate of 500,413 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 249,691 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 4.9% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,252 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• Volusia County Schools – 6,816 employees
• Halifax Medical Center – 3,136 employees • Volusia County – 2,600 employees
• City of Daytona Beach – 1,159 employees • Memorial Hospital – 1,000 employees
• Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 900 employees • Memorial Hospital West Volusia – 853 employees • Sherwood Medical – 850 employees
• The Daytona Beach News-Journal – 829 employees
• Daytona Beach Community College – 743 employees
Source: Southeast Volusia Chamber of Commerce
Out l o o k Summa r Y The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach metropolitan statistical area is expected to show positive growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.6 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be at 30.3. Average annual wage level will be the second lowest in the state at 37.4. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.2 percent. This is the only metro area expected to show no population growth. Gross Metro Product level will be one of the lowest at 10,368.08 (Mill). The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.0 percent each year. Unemployment will be one of the worst in the state, averaging 11.4 percent. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Education and Health Services sector, with an average growth rate of 1.9 percent annually. The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector will see the second-most growth in the MSA, at 1.5 percent annual growth. The Manufacturing sector follows with an annual rate of 1.2 percent. The sectors that will experience the greatest declines are the Leisure and Information sectors, with average annual growth rates of 0.2 percent and -0.4 percent respectively.
M et r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Holiday Weekend Fizzles • Business across Volusia and Flagler counties suffered sub-par sales from the usually lucrative Fourth of July weekend. • Many businesses expected to profit greatly off of NASCAR fans visiting for the weekend, but local businesses shared the sentiment with Chris Peterson, manager of Bubba Gump Shrimp Co. that, “It was just an average summer night.” • Between hotels, restaurants, bars, and even beaches, business was in a noticeable slump over the Fourth of July weekend as a result of recession-conscious consumers. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, July 14, 2009
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
29
D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each
Embry Riddle scientist gets $484K grant • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University scientist Katariina Nykryri has been awarded the early career development grant from the National Science Foundation for $483,699. • Nykyri, an assistant professor at Embry Riddle, will use the grant to further her studies of heating and transporting space plasma. • Katariina is the third person from Embry Riddle to be awarded this grant. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 24, 2009
Oak Hill may see 30% tax hike • Oak Hill commissioners have aimed the 20092010 property tax rate exceptionally high at 30%, but intend to decrease the final size of the annual tax during a series of upcoming tax workshops. • The proposal states an increase of $2.92 per $1,000 of taxable value, a move that would generate $200,000 more in revenue than last year. • The committee must decide on issues such as whether to purchase Burns Oak Elementary School’s property and whether to hire two new police officers. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, July 30, 2009
Edgewater leaders weigh employee wage options in budget • City staff presented a $12.7 million general fund budget to the City Council, a figure that would increase property taxes from $5.90 to $6.45 per $1,000 of taxable value. • City Manager Tracy Barlow criticized the budget, claiming the provision would not provide enough money for crucial city developments such as wage increases or street paving. • Facing a 16% decline in property values as well as the largest tax hike in half a decade, city planners have considered not approving raises at all. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal August 11, 2009 30
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
Recession takes toll on local businesses • Many businesses in Daytona are suffering closures after decades of successful business in the community. • The Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee claims that small businesses have suffered 80% of the total job losses since the recession started. • Experts in the field, such as Grant Thornton, asserted that small businesses that focus on marketing, cutting costs, instilling customer loyalty, and improving overall processes have the best chance of weathering the economic storm. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, September 2, 2009
D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each
Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate
160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Deltona Payroll Employment
1.4
1.6
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product
Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income
(Thousands)
170.0
1.2
(Millions 2000 $)
11500.0 11000.0 10500.0 10000.0 9500.0 9000.0 8500.0 8000.0
Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 180.0
1
Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product
(percent)
14.0% 12.0%
0.8
(percent change year ago)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness
31
D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each
Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL* October 2009 Forecast 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
15.3 -1.6 5.7 9.5 13.9 10.2 30.9 28.1 35.5 0.9
15.3 0.2 5.8 9.6 13.9 10.4 31.1 28.2 35.7 1.7
15.5 1.5 5.8 9.7 14 11.5 31.4 28.4 36 2
15.6 1.9 5.8 9.8 14.1 0.1 31.8 28.7 36.1 2
15.8 3.5 5.9 9.9 14.2 2.2 32.3 29 36.3 2.2
16 4.1 5.9 10.1 14.3 2.6 32.6 29.2 36.4 2
16.1 4.1 5.9 10.2 14.4 2.4 33 29.4 36.6 1.9
16.3 4.4 6 10.4 14.5 2.5 33.4 29.6 36.8 1.8
16.6 4.8 6 10.6 14.6 2.8 33.9 29.9 36.9 1.8
16.8 5.4 6 10.8 14.8 3.4 34.4 30.2 37.1 1.8
17.1 5.8 6.1 11 14.9 3.9 34.9 30.5 37.3 1.9
17.3 6.1 6.2 11.1 15.1 4.2 35.3 30.8 37.5 2.1
17.5 5.8 6.2 11.3 15.2 4.2 35.7 31 37.8 2.3
17.7 5.4 6.3 11.4 15.3 3.9 36 31.2 38 2.5
160.4 0.1 8 -2.3 152.4 0.2 9.6 -6.2 31.3 1.2 5.2 23.1 2.2 2.3 -2.4 7 -1.6 15.7 -2.6 33.1 3.9 22 -0.4 8.1 1.5 1.4 2 21.8 -0.7
160.5 0.1 8 -0.6 152.5 0.2 9.5 -4.5 31.3 0.6 5.2 23.1 2.3 2.4 3.1 7 -1.1 15.8 -2.1 33.2 3.2 22 -0.4 8.1 1.1 1.4 -5.3 21.8 -0.4
160.9 0.3 8 0.9 152.8 0.3 9.5 -1.8 31.2 0.1 5.2 23 2.3 2.4 4.4 7 -0.4 15.8 -0.3 33.5 2.8 22 -0.8 8.1 1 1.4 -12 21.8 -0.2
161.4 0.6 8.1 2 153.3 0.5 9.6 0.5 31.3 -0.2 5.3 23 2.3 2.4 2.9 7 0.4 15.9 1.1 33.7 2.3 22 -0.9 8.1 0.7 1.4 -5.4 21.9 0
161.9 0.9 8.2 2.7 153.7 0.8 9.7 1.6 31.5 0.5 5.4 23.1 2.4 2.4 0.6 7.1 1.2 15.8 0.3 33.8 2.2 22 -0.1 8.2 0.9 1.4 -1.7 21.9 0.3
162.4 1.2 8.3 3.7 154.1 1.1 9.8 3 31.6 1.1 5.4 23.2 2.4 2.4 -0.9 7.1 1.4 15.8 -0.2 33.8 1.9 22.1 0.6 8.2 0.7 1.4 -0.4 22 0.6
163.4 1.6 8.4 4.4 155 1.5 9.9 4 31.9 2 5.5 23.3 2.4 2.4 -0.5 7.1 1.8 15.9 0.5 33.9 1.4 22.2 1.1 8.2 0.6 1.4 0 22.1 1.1
164.4 1.9 8.5 4.5 156 1.8 10.1 4.7 32.1 2.6 5.5 23.4 2.5 2.4 0.1 7.2 2.5 16.1 1.2 34 0.9 22.3 1.6 8.2 0.8 1.4 0.5 22.2 1.5
165.3 2.1 8.6 4.2 156.8 2 10.2 5.1 32.3 2.6 5.6 23.5 2.5 2.4 0.2 7.3 2.9 16.2 2.5 34.1 0.8 22.4 1.9 8.2 0.9 1.4 0.9 22.3 2
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
160.7 -2.6 8.3 -9 152.5 -2.2 10.4 -7.2 31 -2.5 5.3 22.9 2.3 2.4 -6.1 7.1 -6 16.2 -4.8 31.7 0 22.2 -0.6 8 0.2 1.4 -0.2 22 -1.5
160.3 -1.8 8.2 -8.3 152.1 -1.4 10.2 -7.5 31 -0.1 5.2 22.9 2.2 2.4 -4.7 7.1 -3.5 16.2 -4 31.8 0.4 22.1 -0.6 8 0.3 1.4 1.1 22 -1.7
160.3 -1.5 8.1 -7.7 152.2 -1.2 10 -9.3 31.1 0.8 5.2 22.8 2.2 2.3 -7.7 7.1 -2.9 16.2 -0.3 32.1 0.9 22.1 -2.8 8 0.8 1.5 6.7 21.9 -1.6
160.3 -0.6 8 -5.3 152.4 -0.3 9.7 -8.8 31.2 0.8 5.2 22.9 2.2 2.3 -8 7 -1.7 15.9 -2.4 32.6 3.3 22.1 -1.1 8.1 0.9 1.6 16.8 21.9 -0.9
160.4 -0.2 7.9 -3.7 152.4 0 9.6 -8 31.3 1.2 5.2 23 2.2 2.3 -6.1 7 -1.6 15.7 -3.1 32.9 3.9 22.2 -0.3 8.1 1.3 1.5 6.7 21.9 -0.8
9832.5 494.7 -0.6 253.4 0 12.3 1039 956 83
9861.4 493.7 -0.7 252.9 -0.6 12.6 1220 1129 91
9902.9 492.8 -0.8 252.5 -1.4 12.8 1431 1281 150
9908.6 491.3 -1 252.5 -0.6 12.6 1546 1402 144
9927.1 490 -1 252.6 -0.3 12.7 1641 1503 139
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
*Quarterly at an annual rate
32
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
9964 10002.5 10079.9 10175.9 10259.8 10358.6 10462.8 10569.3 10674.7 489.2 488.4 488.2 488.2 488.6 489.1 490.1 491.1 492.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 252.7 253.1 253.5 254 254.6 255.4 256.4 257.3 258.4 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 12.6 12.4 12.2 12 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.4 1858 2190 2610 2986 3276 3499 3797 4113 4311 1713 2028 2415 2733 2968 3123 3362 3572 3673 145 163 194 252 309 376 435 541 638
D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each
Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL October 2009 Forecast 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
11.4 3.7 4.3 7.1
11.8 4 4.6 7.2
13 9.7 5 8
13.7 5.9 5.3 8.4
14.7 7 5.8 8.9
15.2 3.3 5.9 9.3
15.5 1.9 5.8 9.6
15.3 -1 5.8 9.5
15.7 2.7 5.8 9.9
16.5 4.7 6 10.5
17.4 5.8 6.2 11.2
18.3 5.1 6.5 11.8
11 2.3
11.2 2
12 6.9
12.3 2.9
12.8 4.2
12.9 0.7
12.7 -1.4
13.6 7.1
14.2 3.9
14.5 2.8
15.1 4
15.7 3.4
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
24.7 23.9
25.3 23.9
27.1 25
28.2 25.3
29.7 25.9
30.4 25.8
31.1 25.5
30.9 27.5
32 28.8
33.7 29.8
35.5 30.9
36.9 31.6
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
27.6 4
28.7 3.8
29.9 4.3
30.8 3.2
32.8 6.3
33.9 3.3
34.8 2.8
35.5 1.9
36.2 2.1
36.9 1.8
37.7 2.2
38.7 2.7
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
153.8 1.9
158.6 3.1
165.4 4.3
171.8 3.9
174.9 1.8
173.5 -0.8
166.9 -3.8
161.3 -3.4
160.3 -0.6
161.2 0.5
163.9 1.7
167.6 2.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
9.6 -7.3
9.4 -1.5
9.8 3.9
10.2 4.3
10.6 3.9
10.3 -2.6
9.3 -10.4
8.4 -9.4
8 -4.8
8.1 1.3
8.4 4.2
8.8 3.9
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
144.2 2.6
149.1 3.4
155.6 4.3
161.6 3.9
164.3 1.6
163.1 -0.7
157.7 -3.4
152.9 -3
152.4 -0.3
153.1 0.5
155.5 1.6
158.8 2.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
10.6 8.3
11.5 7.9
12.9 12.8
14.8 14.5
15.9 7.3
14.2 -10.4
11.5 -19.1
10.6 -8.4
9.7 -8.1
9.6 -1.1
10 4.2
10.7 6.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
30.9 -0.6
31.5 1.6
32 1.7
33.2 3.7
33.2 0.1
33.6 1.1
32.2 -4.1
30.9 -4
31.2 1
31.3 0.3
32 2.1
32.8 2.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
4.7 23.6 2.7
4.6 24.3 2.6
4.7 25 2.3
4.8 26 2.4
5 25.9 2.4
5.3 25.8 2.5
5.3 24.5 2.4
5.3 23 2.3
5.2 22.9 2.2
5.3 23.1 2.3
5.5 23.3 2.4
5.8 23.9 2.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.5 -12.2
2.3 -7.6
2.3 -2.5
2.2 -3.3
2.4 8.3
2.5 5.2
2.6 4
2.4 -6.2
2.3 -6.1
2.4 2.7
2.4 -0.3
2.4 2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.4 -2.3
6.5 1.2
6.9 7.2
7.3 5.5
7.9 7.2
8 2.2
7.7 -3.9
7.2 -7.1
7 -2
7 0
7.2 2.2
7.3 2.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
16.4 3.8
17.4 6.3
19.1 9.8
20.6 7.7
20.4 -0.9
19 -6.7
17.4 -8.4
16.2 -6.8
15.9 -2.1
15.8 -0.3
16 1
16.4 2.7
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
28.2 7.7
30.1 6.7
30.7 1.9
30.5 -0.7
30.5 0.2
30.6 0.2
31.8 4
31.7 -0.2
32.7 3
33.5 2.6
34 1.2
34.3 0.9
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
19.6 0.8
20 2.2
21.1 5.3
21.7 2.9
21.6 -0.4
22.6 4.6
22.6 0
22.4 -0.9
22.1 -1.1
22 -0.6
22.3 1.3
22.5 1.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
7.6 6.8
7.8 2.9
8.2 4
8.2 0.1
8.3 1.2
8.1 -1.7
8 -1.8
8 -0.1
8.1 1.1
8.1 0.9
8.2 0.8
8.3 0.7
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4 2.5
1.4 2.5
1.4 0
1.4 1.2
1.4 -0.6
1.4 -0.6
1.4 0
1.4 -0.3
1.5 8
1.4 -6.2
1.4 0.2
1.4 0.9
20.6 0.9
20.7 0.5
21.1 2.1
21.8 3.5
22.8 4.4
23.1 1.4
22.5 -2.9
22.1 -1.7
21.9 -1
21.9 0
22.1 1.3
22.7 2.7
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
9056.1
9077
9430.6
10027
10355.7
10287.9
10058.1
9793.2
9925.6
10129.5
10516.4
10900.8
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
459.2 1.6
467.3 1.8
477.6 2.2
486.9 2
495.3 1.7
499.1 0.8
497.8 -0.3
495.4 -0.5
490.8 -0.9
488.3 -0.5
490.6 0.5
495.1 0.9
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
220.9 2.9
226.8 2.7
232.8 2.7
240.9 3.5
246.6 2.3
250.8 1.7
253.6 1.1
254.1 0.2
252.6 -0.6
253.8 0.5
256.9 1.2
261.3 1.7
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5.5
5.2
4.5
3.7
3.3
4.1
6.6
11.6
12.7
12.1
10.9
9.7
4785 4136 649
6171 4990 1181
6179 4779 1401
6363 5121 1242
4126 3100 1026
2194 1583 611
1366 1018 348
920 812 108
1619 1475 144
2766 2536 229
3930 3433 497
4522 3777 745
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
33
G ai n e s v i l l e
P r o fi l e s The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the northcentral portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum. Quick Facts:
• Metro population estimate of 257,099 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 240,082 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,017 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• A civilian labor force of 135,702 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.1% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 4,162 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• University of Florida – 35,000 employees
Out l o o k Summa r Y The Gainesville MSA is expected to show modest growth in all of the most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast, relative to the state. Personal income growth will be one of the slowest in the state, averaging 3.9 percent, while per capita income level is expected to average 30.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.3 percent, while the average annual wage level is at 39.8. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.7 percent annually. Gross metro product will be one of the lowest in the state, at a level of 7,910.78 (Mill). This metro will see an employment growth rate of 0.6 percent annually, one of the lowest in the state. However, the Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest rate of unemployment in the state, at 7.0 percent annually. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Education and Health Services sector, with an average growth rate of 1.6 percent annually. This is followed by the Manufacturing sector, with an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, and the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector with 1.0 percent growth. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual declining rate of -0.5 percent.
M et r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Shands UF earns several top-50 honors
• Shands Hospital – 8,225 employees
• Seven specialties at the hospital were ranked among the nation’s 50 best by U.S. News & World Report.
• Nationwide Insurance – 1,058 employees
• The rankings recognize Shands for excellence in cancer treatment, cardiology and heart surgery, urology, endocrinology and diabetes, geriatrics, gynecology, and ear, nose and throat specialties.
• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,560 employees Sources: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach
• Shands UF was ranked as the top hospital in Florida for cardiology. Source: The Gainesville Sun, July 17, 2009
34
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
G ai n e s v i l l e
After federal funding falls through, county aims to keep car battery plant plans alive • County commissioners started a process to enable Planar Energy Devices to qualify for tax-exempt status on bonds it might use for financing. • Planar was denied $56 million in federal funding to use the old Energizer lithium ion battery plant for electric car battery production. The project would create an estimated 150 high-tech manufacturing jobs in a year and 600 in the long term. • Planar’s finances will be reviewed, and the commission will decide on a resolution to the state. Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 14, 2009
Gainesville’s solar feed-in tariff is now booked until 2016
• Subject to a final vote in mid-September, the 2009-2010 city budget includes a 10% cut, equaling $10 million. Gainesville Regional Utilities reduced its budget by around $32 million. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 4, 2009
County schools get bonuses for performances on FCAT • Alachua County schools will receive $1.3 million from the state as a reward for outstanding student results on last year’s Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT). • The award, $75 per pupil, will be awarded to schools that earned an A grade, or improved by at least one letter grade. The amount of bonuses a school receives depends on enrollment. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 11, 2009
• Implemented in March as the first solar feedin tariff in the U.S., private owners of privately installed solar panels obtain above market rates for the electricity they produce. • Only four new megawatts of electricity a year from solar power can be produced under the program on a first-come, first-served basis. • Those on the waiting list can install the panels now and be paid market price by Gainesville Regional Utilities for electricity produced until their contract with a higher rate starts. Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 21, 2009
City passes hike to fees, rates, taxes • The property tax milliage rate will increase to 4.3963 for 2010, from the 4.2544 rate in 2009. One mill represents $1 for every $1,000 of taxable property value. Base rates for electricity, water, and waste water at Gainesville Regional Utilities will also increase. • Increases in fees of all types are expected to bring in an additional $280,000.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
35
G ai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.5
Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate (percent)
12.0% 10.0%
2.5
3
(Millions 2000 $)
8500.0
7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate
5500.0
140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product
Gainesville Real Personal Income
(Thousands)
36
2
Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product
Gainesville Payroll Employment
115.0
1.5
8000.0
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
1
(percent change year ago)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income
G ai n e s v i l l e
Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL* October 2009 Forecast 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
8.4 -1.8 5 3.5 7.7 9.9 32.4 29.4 37.7 0.9
8.5 -0.2 5 3.5 7.7 10 32.5 29.5 37.9 1.8
8.5 1.4 5 3.5 7.7 11.4 32.7 29.7 38.2 2.1
8.6 2.1 5 3.6 7.8 0.3 33 29.8 38.4 2.1
8.7 3.1 5.1 3.6 7.8 1.9 33.3 29.9 38.6 2.2
8.7 3.5 5.1 3.7 7.8 2.1 33.5 30 38.7 2.1
8.8 3.5 5.1 3.7 7.9 1.8 33.8 30.1 38.9 1.9
8.9 3.5 5.1 3.8 7.9 1.6 34 30.2 39.1 1.9
9 3.9 5.2 3.9 8 1.9 34.4 30.3 39.3 1.9
9.1 4.4 5.2 3.9 8 2.5 34.7 30.5 39.5 1.9
9.2 4.7 5.2 4 8.1 2.8 35.1 30.7 39.7 2
9.4 5 5.3 4.1 8.2 3.2 35.4 30.9 40 2.2
9.5 4.9 5.4 4.1 8.2 3.3 35.7 31 40.2 2.4
9.6 4.8 5.4 4.2 8.3 3.2 36 31.1 40.5 2.6
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
130.7 -2.9 4.5 -10.5 126.2 -2.6 5.1 -9.1 18.9 -4.7 2.8 13.6 2.5 1.8 -7.2 6 -2.3 10.6 -6.3 22.6 0.6 14.9 -0.9 4.7 1.5 3.9 -3.5 37.6 -2.1
130.4 -2.6 4.5 -10.2 125.9 -2.3 5 -10 18.9 -3.3 2.8 13.6 2.5 1.7 -2.8 6 -2.7 10.5 -4.5 22.7 0.5 14.9 -1.7 4.7 0 3.9 -1.7 37.5 -2.3
130.4 -1.6 4.4 -7.7 125.9 -1.4 4.9 -9.3 18.9 -0.7 2.8 13.5 2.5 1.7 -5.9 6 -2.5 10.6 -0.4 22.9 1.4 15 -3 4.7 0.4 3.9 -0.8 37.3 -1.7
130.7 -0.3 4.4 -4.1 126.3 -0.2 4.7 -9.6 19 0.2 2.8 13.6 2.5 1.7 -7.1 6 -1.3 10.4 -2.5 23.2 3.4 15.1 1.1 4.8 0.3 4.3 8.6 37.3 -1.4
130.5 -0.1 4.4 -3.1 126.2 0 4.6 -9.1 19 0.6 2.7 13.7 2.5 1.7 -5.3 6 -1.3 10.3 -3.1 23.5 3.9 15.1 1.4 4.8 0.5 4 2.9 37.2 -1.1
130.3 -0.1 4.4 -2.2 125.9 0 4.6 -7 19 0.6 2.7 13.7 2.5 1.7 -2 5.9 -1.3 10.3 -2.5 23.6 3.9 15 0.7 4.8 1 3.9 0.1 37.1 -1.1
130.3 0 4.4 -0.6 125.9 0 4.6 -5.2 19 0.1 2.7 13.7 2.5 1.7 1.9 6 -0.8 10.3 -2.1 23.6 2.9 15 0.2 4.8 0.7 3.9 -0.6 37.1 -0.8
130.5 -0.2 4.4 0.8 126.1 -0.2 4.6 -2.3 18.9 -0.4 2.8 13.6 2.5 1.7 4.2 6 -0.2 10.3 -0.2 23.8 2.4 15 -0.7 4.8 0.6 3.9 -8.4 37 -0.7
130.7 0.2 4.5 2 126.3 0.1 4.6 0.1 18.9 -0.5 2.8 13.6 2.6 1.7 4 6 0.5 10.4 1.1 23.9 1.9 15 -0.9 4.8 0.5 3.9 -3.4 37 -0.6
130.9 0.5 4.5 2.8 126.4 0.4 4.7 1.1 19 0.1 2.8 13.6 2.6 1.7 2.2 6 1.2 10.3 0.4 24 1.8 15 -0.2 4.8 0.8 3.9 -1 37 -0.3
131.2 0.7 4.6 3.8 126.6 0.6 4.7 2.4 19.1 0.8 2.8 13.7 2.6 1.7 0.7 6 1.3 10.3 -0.2 23.9 1.4 15.1 0.6 4.8 0.7 3.9 -0.8 37 -0.1
131.9 1 4.6 4.5 127.2 0.9 4.8 3.3 19.2 1.7 2.9 13.7 2.7 1.7 0.1 6.1 1.6 10.4 0.5 24 0.9 15.2 1.1 4.8 0.6 3.9 -0.4 37.2 0.4
132.5 1.3 4.7 4.6 127.8 1.2 4.8 3.7 19.3 2.2 2.9 13.7 2.7 1.7 0.1 6.1 2.3 10.5 1.1 24 0.4 15.2 1.7 4.8 0.8 3.9 0 37.3 0.8
133.1 1.6 4.7 4.4 128.3 1.5 4.9 3.9 19.4 2.2 2.9 13.8 2.7 1.7 0.1 6.2 2.6 10.6 2.4 24 0.3 15.3 1.9 4.8 0.8 3.9 0.3 37.5 1.4
7558.9 260.2 0.4 137.5 -2.1 7.5 499 248 250
7581.5 260.3 0.3 136.7 -2.9 7.7 639 303 336
7612.1 260.6 0.1 136.2 -2.6 7.9 740 372 368
7622.3 260.7 0.3 136 -2.1 7.8 762 422 340
7632.7 260.9 0.3 135.9 -1.1 7.8 810 450 360
7652.7 261.2 0.3 136 -0.6 7.8 871 501 370
7676.3 261.5 0.3 136.1 -0.1 7.7 948 586 362
7728.5 262 0.5 136.3 0.2 7.5 994 685 309
7792.6 262.5 0.6 136.5 0.4 7.4 1049 753 296
7845 263 0.7 136.8 0.7 7.2 1081 800 282
7908.9 263.6 0.8 137.3 0.8 7 1104 833 271
7976.4 264.3 0.9 137.7 1 6.8 1158 900 258
8043.7 265.1 1 138.2 1.2 6.5 1242 959 283
8111 265.8 1.1 138.7 1.4 6.4 1292 986 306
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
37
G ai n e s v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL October 2009 Forecast 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
5.8 1.8 3.6 2.2
6 2.9 3.7 2.3
6.8 13.4 4.2 2.6
7.4 8 4.5 2.9
7.9 7.8 4.8 3.2
8.3 5.2 5 3.4
8.5 2.4 5 3.5
8.4 -1.3 5 3.5
8.6 2.5 5 3.6
9 3.8 5.1 3.8
9.4 4.9 5.3 4.1
9.8 4.5 5.6 4.3
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
5.6 0.4
5.7 0.9
6.3 10.5
6.6 4.9
6.9 4.9
7.1 2.5
7 -0.9
7.5 6.9
7.8 3.7
7.9 1.9
8.2 3.1
8.4 2.9
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
24.4 23.6
24.9 23.5
27.9 25.7
29.6 26.5
31.3 27.3
32.5 27.6
33 27.1
32.4 28.8
33.1 29.8
34.2 30.3
35.6 30.9
36.8 31.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
28.3 3.4
28.8 1.5
32.2 11.9
33.8 5
35.5 5.1
36.6 3.1
37.3 1.7
37.7 1.1
38.5 2.1
39.2 1.9
40.1 2.3
41.2 2.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
126 -0.1
127.4 1.1
129.6 1.8
131.2 1.2
133.3 1.6
135.2 1.4
134.6 -0.5
131.2 -2.5
130.5 -0.5
130.6 0.1
132.1 1.2
134.4 1.7
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
5 -0.8
4.7 -5.4
4.7 -1.8
4.6 -0.2
5.2 12.2
5.3 2.2
5.1 -4.8
4.6 -9.3
4.4 -4.3
4.5 1.3
4.7 4.3
4.8 4.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
121 -0.1
122.6 1.3
125 1.9
126.5 1.2
128.1 1.2
129.9 1.4
129.5 -0.3
126.6 -2.2
126.1 -0.4
126.2 0.1
127.5 1.1
129.6 1.6
5.1 5.6
5.2 1.5
5.8 11.7
6.2 6.3
6.5 5.2
6.5 0.9
5.7 -12.5
5.2 -9.8
4.7 -8.8
4.6 -1.6
4.8 3.3
5 5.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
17.9 -1.2
18.1 1.1
18.2 0.4
18.9 3.5
19.5 3.3
20.3 4
19.7 -2.7
18.9 -3.9
19 0.2
18.9 -0.2
19.3 1.7
19.7 2.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
2.3 13.3 2.3
2.5 13.2 2.5
2.6 13.2 2.4
2.7 13.8 2.4
2.7 14.1 2.6
2.8 14.9 2.6
2.9 14.2 2.7
2.8 13.6 1.9
2.7 13.6 2.5
2.8 13.6 2.5
2.9 13.7 2.7
3 13.9 2.8
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2 -6.5
2 -1.3
2.1 6.1
2 -5.8
2 -2.9
2 2.6
1.9 -6.6
1.8 -5.3
1.7 -5.1
1.7 3.1
1.7 0.2
1.8 1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.6 -0.1
6.2 -6.4
6.2 -0.7
6.2 1
6.5 4
6.4 -0.5
6.3 -2.8
6.1 -2.9
6 -1.6
6 0.2
6.1 2
6.2 1.9
9.9 -10.4
10.4 4.3
11.3 8.8
11.9 5.6
12.1 1.3
11.6 -4.1
11.2 -3.4
10.6 -5.2
10.4 -2.1
10.3 -0.2
10.4 0.9
10.7 2.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
20.4 2.4
20.8 2.3
21.5 3
21.9 2.1
21.9 0.1
21.8 -0.5
22.4 2.7
22.6 0.8
23.3 3.1
23.8 2.3
24 0.7
24.1 0.4
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
12.1 -1.3
12 -0.5
12.9 7.5
13.7 5.9
13.4 -2
14 4.1
14.9 6.5
15.1 1.1
15.1 0
15 -0.4
15.2 1.3
15.4 1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
4.3 10.4
4.5 5.4
4.7 3.3
4.5 -3.1
4.7 2.6
4.8 3.8
4.8 -0.9
4.7 -1.2
4.8 0.6
4.8 0.7
4.8 0.7
4.8 0.4
3.2 2.1
3.3 3.6
3.4 3.8
3.7 5.9
3.7 2.1
3.8 3.1
4 4.1
3.9 -1.9
4 2.7
3.9 -3.5
3.9 -0.2
3.9 0.2
39.4 1
40 1.6
38.9 -2.8
37.6 -3.3
37.9 0.9
38.6 1.8
38.7 0.1
37.7 -2.4
37.2 -1.3
37 -0.6
37.2 0.6
38 2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
6273.5
6436.4
6993.7
7331.6
7577.8
7669.3
7693.4
7466
7629.9
7760.6
8010
8242.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
239 1.2
241.4 1
244.3 1.2
248.3 1.7
253.2 2
256.6 1.3
258.8 0.9
260.2 0.5
260.9 0.3
262.2 0.5
264.7 0.9
267.7 1.1
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
125 0.4
126 0.8
126.6 0.5
128.9 1.8
131.6 2.1
135.7 3.1
139.5 2.8
138.2 -0.9
136 -1.6
136.4 0.3
138 1.1
139.9 1.4
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
38
4
3.7
3.4
2.9
2.7
3
4.3
7.1
7.8
7.4
6.7
6
1942 1130 812
1706 1261 446
1838 1378 461
2224 1454 770
1885 1156 729
1368 763 605
1033 491 542
512 282 231
796 436 360
1018 706 312
1199 919 280
1347 1013 334
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
J ack s o n v i l l e
P r o fi l e s The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport. Quick Facts: • • • • • • • •
Metro population estimate of 1,300,823 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
Baker County population estimate of 25,745 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
Clay County population estimate of 182,023 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
Duval County population estimate of 849,159 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) Nassau County population estimate of 68,450 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
St. Johns County population estimate of 175,446 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) A civilian labor force of 664,425 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)
An unemployment rate of 4.4% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 29,022 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database)
Top Area Employers: • Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Duval County Public Schools – 16,003 employees • Naval Station Mayport – 15,293 employees • City of Jacksonville Municipal Government – 8,828 employees • Blue Cross – 8,200 employees • Baptist Health – 7,000 employees • Winn-Dixie Stores, Inc. – 6,200 employees • Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees • CSX – 4,400 employees • Citibank – 4,200 employees Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership
Out l o o k Summa r Y The Jacksonville MSA is expected to see positive growth in all of the economic indicators. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.1 percent, while the per capita income level will be at 37.1, one of the highest in the state. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent, the highest in the state. Average annual wage is also expected to be among the highest in the state, at a level of 47.3. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 52,077.10 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to grow 2.0 percent annually, tied for second highest in the state. Unemployment will average 9.5 percent, one of the lowest in the state. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional and Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 5.8 percent. Following that sector is Education and Health Services, with an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent, and then the Trade Transportation and Utilities sector with 1.8 percent. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Information sector, with an average annual decline of 1.2 percent.
M et r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Business strong, but cruise terminal for Jacksonville on hold • The Jacksonville Port Authority’s current priority is the opening of Hanjin Shipping Co. Ltd’s $208 million terminal in 2012. Construction would create about 1,500 jobs and have an annual impact of $500 million. • The cruise industry remains strong despite the recession. The authority recently signed a twoyear contract with Carnival Cruise Lines. The construction of a new cruise terminal could start in April 2012. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, June 18, 2009
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
39
J ack s o n v i l l e
NAS Jax to get $37M training facility • The Naval Air Station Jacksonville will use the new facility to train pilots and crew for the new P-8A Poseidon, which is replacing the P-3C Orion. • The two-story, 165,000-square-foot building will be designed and built by DCK North America, LLC. Work is expected to be finalized by June 2011. • According to the commanding officer at NAS Jax, The new training facility will be among the most sophisticated the Navy has ever built. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, July 9, 2009 Stimulus funding lifts North Florida Shipyards • The purchase of a $7.5 million travel lift will increase North Florida Shipyards Inc.’s productivity since it will not need to use a dry dock to bring ships out of the water, thus allowing repairs on various ships at the same time. • Federal stimulus package funds will be used for the expansion that will create up to 300 new jobs, doubling the shipyard’s workforce. • The application still needs to be approved by the Jacksonville City Council. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 21, 2009 UNF opens $50M student union • The new $50.4 million Student Union includes two, three-story buildings covering 150,000 square feet. It includes a 5,200-square-foot ballroom, eight meeting rooms, and a 244-seat auditorium. • The large outdoor covered area in the middle of the buildings, Osprey Plaza, constitutes a unique design to take advantage of the Florida weather. It will be used in the future for market days or farmers’ markets. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 27, 2009
40
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
Mayo docs identify gene for lung cancer • Scientists at Mayo Clinic Florida have found the abnormal gene responsible for lung cancer development, PKCiota. This oncogene is necessary for the creation of lung cancer stem cells, the major causes of many common lung cancers. • The study also found an agent, Aurothiomalate, which reduces the growth of cancer stem cells significantly and is currently being tested in clinical trials. Further clinical trials will follow based on results. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, September 8, 2009
J ack s o n v i l l e
Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate (percent)
12.0%
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)
60000.0 55000.0
10.0% 50000.0
8.0% 6.0%
45000.0
4.0%
40000.0
2.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate
35000.0
Jacksonville Payroll Employment
Jacksonville Real Personal Income
(Thousands)
660.0 640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Jacksonville Payroll Employment
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product
(percent change year ago)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness
41
J ack s o n v i l l e
Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL* October 2009 Forecast 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
51 -1.9 27.5 23.4 46.3 9.8 38.4 35 44.6 1.2
51.1 -0.2 27.6 23.5 46.4 10 38.5 35 44.9 2
51.6 1.4 27.9 23.8 46.8 11.3 38.9 35.2 45.2 2.4
52.2 2.1 28.1 24.1 47.2 0.3 39.3 35.5 45.5 2.4
52.7 3.5 28.3 24.5 47.4 2.3 39.7 35.6 45.7 2.6
53.3 4.2 28.5 24.8 47.7 2.8 40 35.8 46 2.5
53.8 4.3 28.8 25.1 48 2.5 40.4 36 46.3 2.3
54.6 4.5 29.1 25.5 48.4 2.6 40.9 36.2 46.5 2.2
55.4 5.1 29.4 26 48.9 3.1 41.4 36.5 46.7 2.2
56.3 5.7 29.8 26.6 49.4 3.7 42 36.9 47 2.2
57.2 6.3 30.2 27 50 4.3 42.6 37.2 47.3 2.3
58.2 6.6 30.7 27.5 50.7 4.7 43.1 37.6 47.6 2.4
59.1 6.5 31.2 27.9 51.3 4.9 43.6 37.9 48 2.6
59.9 6.3 31.6 28.2 51.8 4.7 44.1 38.1 48.3 2.8
595.5 0 27.7 -4.1 567.8 0.2 33 -8.3 132 0.7 27.7 73 29.5 8.6 -6.8 57.9 -1.2 85.3 0.4 82.5 3.7 66.2 1.2 27.2 1.8 17.2 1.8 58.1 -0.7
597.4 0.7 27.8 -2.7 569.6 0.9 33 -6.2 131.8 0.6 27.6 73.1 29.5 8.7 -3.5 57.8 -1.1 87.1 3.8 83 4 66 1.2 27.2 1.8 16.9 0 58.1 -0.7
599.6 1 27.9 -1 571.8 1.1 32.9 -4.4 131.8 0.3 27.6 73.1 29.6 8.8 1.1 57.9 -0.5 89 4.8 83.4 3.6 65.9 1 27.3 1.4 16.8 -0.5 58 -0.5
603.1 1.3 27.9 0.6 575.2 1.3 33 -1.7 132 0.3 27.9 72.8 30 8.8 3.1 58.2 0.1 90.9 6.9 84.2 3.3 66.1 0.4 27.3 1.1 16.8 -8.5 58 -0.2
607 1.9 28.2 1.7 578.9 1.9 33.2 0.6 132.6 0.5 28.3 72.6 30.5 8.8 2.3 58.5 1 92.6 8.5 85 3 66.1 -0.1 27.3 0.6 16.7 -2.7 58.1 0
611.2 2.3 28.5 2.4 582.7 2.3 33.5 1.6 133.7 1.4 28.5 73 30.9 8.7 0.4 58.8 1.7 93.9 7.8 85.5 3.1 66.3 0.4 27.4 0.6 16.7 -1.2 58.2 0.2
616.3 2.8 28.8 3.3 587.6 2.8 33.8 2.9 134.7 2.2 28.8 73.4 31.3 8.7 -1 59.1 2 96 8 85.9 3.1 66.8 1.3 27.4 0.4 16.7 -0.6 58.3 0.5
622.2 3.2 29 3.9 593.2 3.1 34.2 3.9 135.9 2.9 29 73.7 31.7 8.7 -1.1 59.5 2.3 98.5 8.3 86.4 2.6 67.3 1.8 27.4 0.4 16.7 -0.3 58.6 0.9
628 3.5 29.3 3.9 598.7 3.4 34.7 4.5 137 3.3 29.3 74 32.2 8.7 -0.7 60.1 2.8 100.7 8.8 86.8 2.1 67.7 2.4 27.5 0.6 16.7 0 58.9 1.4
633.2 3.6 29.5 3.7 603.7 3.6 35.2 5 138.1 3.3 29.7 74.2 32.7 8.7 -0.5 60.5 3 102.4 9.1 87.1 1.8 68.1 2.6 27.6 0.8 16.7 0.1 59.2 1.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
595.6 -3.7 28.9 -8.6 566.7 -3.4 36 -13.9 131 -3.1 28 72.1 30.2 9.2 -7.2 58.6 -3.1 84.9 -2.8 79.5 -1.1 65.4 -2 26.7 -3.6 16.9 -1.7 58.5 -2.4
593.3 -2.9 28.6 -8 564.7 -2.6 35.2 -11.6 131 -1.2 27.9 72.2 29.8 9 -7.5 58.4 -2.4 84 -3.5 79.8 -0.7 65.3 -1.7 26.7 -2.7 16.9 -1.4 58.4 -1.9
593.7 -1.8 28.1 -7.8 565.6 -1.5 34.4 -9.4 131.4 -0.3 27.8 72.3 29.6 8.7 -7.5 58.2 -2.4 84.9 -1.3 80.5 0.8 65.3 -1.8 26.9 1 16.9 -1.3 58.3 -1.3
595.4 -0.6 27.8 -5.6 567.6 -0.4 33.5 -9.3 131.6 0.4 27.7 72.6 29.6 8.5 -8.5 58.1 -1.3 85 -1.5 81.5 2.9 65.8 0.3 27 1.2 18.3 7.7 58.2 -0.6
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
48665.8 48808.8 49048.2 49178.2 49331.4 49643.7 49911.9 50388.7 50950.3 1325.5 1326.9 1328.4 1328.8 1329.7 1331 1332.6 1334.9 1337.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 680.4 677.4 675.6 675.4 675.5 676 677.9 679.9 682 -0.9 -1.4 -1.9 -1.3 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 0.7 1 10 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10 4568 5057 5624 5974 6389 7112 8041 9080 10065 3527 3911 4331 4691 5161 5855 6749 7732 8524 1041 1147 1293 1283 1228 1257 1292 1348 1541
*Quarterly at an annual rate
42
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
51479 52139.7 52749.4 1340.7 1344.3 1349.1 0.7 0.9 1.1 684.5 687 689.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 9.8 9.5 9.2 10805 11315 11993 9092 9401 9897 1713 1914 2096
53361 53960.2 1354 1359.2 1.2 1.4 692.1 694.8 1.5 1.5 8.9 8.7 12725 13176 10293 10437 2432 2739
J ack s o n v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL October 2009 Forecast 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
35.1 3.9 20.4 14.7
37.2 5.9 21.9 15.3
40.5 8.9 23.4 17.1
44.1 8.8 25 19.1
48.6 10.2 27.3 21.3
50.9 4.7 28.3 22.6
51.8 1.8 28.2 23.6
51 -1.4 27.6 23.4
52.5 2.8 28.2 24.3
55 4.9 29.2 25.8
58.6 6.4 30.9 27.7
62.2 6.1 32.9 29.3
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
33.9 2.4
35.2 3.8
37.4 6.1
39.5 5.7
42.4 7.2
43.2 2
42.6 -1.5
45.4 6.8
47.3 4
48.7 3
50.9 4.7
53.2 4.5
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
29.9 28.9
31 29.4
33.1 30.5
35.2 31.6
38 33.1
39.1 33.3
39.4 32.4
38.5 34.3
39.5 35.5
41.2 36.4
43.3 37.7
45.3 38.8
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
34.8 4.3
37 6.4
38.4 3.9
39.6 2.9
41.9 6
43.1 2.8
43.8 1.5
44.5 1.6
45.6 2.5
46.6 2.2
47.8 2.5
49.3 3.1
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
561.5 -1
564.5 0.5
582 3.1
607.4 4.4
626.2 3.1
633.8 1.2
621.1 -2
598.2 -3.7
595.5 -0.4
605.2 1.6
624.9 3.3
645.5 3.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
34.4 -4.9
33.3 -3.1
33.3 -0.3
33.5 0.9
33.3 -0.8
32.6 -2.2
31.8 -2.4
29.3 -7.7
27.9 -5.1
28.1 0.9
29.1 3.7
30.2 3.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
527.1 -0.7
531.2 0.8
548.7 3.3
573.9 4.6
592.9 3.3
601.2 1.4
589.3 -2
568.8 -3.5
567.7 -0.2
577.1 1.7
595.8 3.2
615.3 3.3
34.1 3.6
36.7 7.4
40.9 11.5
45.4 11
50.1 10.3
49.2 -1.7
42.9 -13
36.5 -14.8
33.5 -8.3
33.1 -1
34.5 4.1
36.6 6.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
124.4 -0.9
125 0.4
128.1 2.5
132.7 3.6
136.9 3.1
139.2 1.7
135.9 -2.3
131.3 -3.4
131.7 0.3
132.5 0.6
136.4 2.9
140.8 3.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
25.9 68.1 30.4
26.8 68.8 29.4
26.9 71.2 30.1
27.8 73.9 31.1
29.9 74.8 32.2
30.2 76.5 32.5
28.7 75.4 31.8
28 72.3 30.5
27.7 72.7 29.6
28 72.9 30.2
29.2 73.8 32
30.5 75.3 33.8
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
13.2 -8.1
12.4 -6.1
11.6 -6.4
11.9 2.4
11.1 -6.8
10.2 -8.5
9.9 -2.2
9.2 -6.8
8.6 -6.6
8.8 1.7
8.7 -0.8
8.8 1.1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
57.7 -0.3
57.6 -0.1
58.4 1.4
59.3 1.5
59.8 0.9
60.1 0.5
60.5 0.6
58.9 -2.6
58 -1.5
58.3 0.6
59.8 2.5
61.2 2.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
86.1 -8.2
84.1 -2.3
85.9 2.2
91.7 6.7
96.8 5.5
94.3 -2.6
88.4 -6.2
85.3 -3.5
85.6 0.3
91.6 7
99.4 8.6
106.7 7.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
63.5 4
64.7 1.9
67.9 5
71.3 4.9
74.5 4.5
77.9 4.6
80.4 3.2
79.6 -1
81.9 2.9
84.5 3.2
86.6 2.4
87.9 1.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
52.5 2.8
53.3 1.6
56.3 5.5
60.4 7.3
62.1 2.9
65.9 6.1
66.7 1.2
65.7 -1.5
65.8 0.2
66.1 0.4
67.5 2
68.8 1.9
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
24.9 4.6
25.7 3
26.4 2.6
26.8 1.5
27.6 3.1
28.2 2.3
27.8 -1.8
26.7 -3.9
27.1 1.4
27.3 0.9
27.5 0.5
27.7 0.7
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
17.7 0.2
18 1.6
17.8 -1.3
17.4 -2.2
16.9 -2.6
17 0.6
17.1 0.3
17 -0.6
17.3 2
16.7 -3.3
16.7 -0.2
16.8 0.2
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
52.8 0.5
53.6 1.7
55.4 3.3
57.1 3
57 0
59.1 3.7
59.8 1.1
58.7 -1.9
58.2 -0.8
58.1 -0.1
58.7 1.1
60.2 2.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
40335.2
43104.5
44932.2
47166.5
49959.6
49985.9
49608.4
48489.6
49300.4
50682.5
53052.6
55272.9
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1175 2.1
1198.1 2
1225.2 2.3
1251.5 2.2
1278.7 2.2
1299.4 1.6
1315.2 1.2
1325.4 0.8
1329.5 0.3
1336.4 0.5
1351.7 1.1
1373.3 1.6
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
597.5 0.3
599.4 0.3
607.9 1.4
628.5 3.4
649.8 3.4
670 3.1
684.4 2.1
682.7 -0.2
675.6 -1
681.1 0.8
690.8 1.4
703 1.8
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5.3
5
4.6
3.7
3.3
3.8
5.8
9.9
10.4
10.1
9.1
8.2
14252 11058 3194
15042 12825 2217
17883 13858 4024
23879 18655 5224
16715 12256 4459
10512 7476 3036
7225 5318 1908
5022 3457 1565
6275 5009 1265
9498 8024 1473
12302 10007 2295
13700 10652 3048
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
43
Lake l a n d
P r o fi l e s The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively. Quick Facts:
• Population estimate of 574,746 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 267,983 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,734 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 employees
• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees • City of Lakeland Government – 2,600 employees • GEICO – 1,850 employees
• Watson Clinic – 1,500 employees • GC Services – 1,000 employees
• Summit Consulting – 1,000 employees • Rooms To Go – 900 employees
• FedEx National LTL – 850 employees
• Saddle Creek Corporation – 680 employees
Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council
Out l o o k Summa r Y The Lakeland MSA will show moderate growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.4 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 29.2, the second lowest in the state. Average annual wage growth should be 2.0 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 39.6, one of the lowest in the state. Population growth is expected to be the second highest in the state, averaging an annual growth rate of 1.4 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,593.38 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 0.9 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will be the second worst in the state, averaging 11.5 percent. The Education and Health Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging a 2.0 percent growth rate. This is followed by the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector, averaging a growth rate of 1.7 percent a year, and the Manufacturing sector at 0.9 percent. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual declining rate of -0.3 percent.
M et r o Ne w s Summa r ie s School workers’ costs may rise • In response to a jump in healthcare costs, there will be a vote on increasing co-pays for prescription drugs and out-of-pocket expenses for current and former employees. • The $18 million deficit is spurring plans to cut costs, such as making employees pay a higher annual deductible, and charging more for medications. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, June 8, 2009
Lakeland Electric lowering rates again • City commissioners voted to take $2.15 off the price of 1000 kilowatt hours of electricity, resulting in a price of $113.24 per kilowatt-hour.
44
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
Lake l a n d
• The utility company has cut rates three times this year in response to falling natural gas prices. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, June 15, 2009
• That $10 million is coming from the funds that would have been used to give city employees raises for the next three years. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, August 2, 2009
Auburndale officials reviewing budget • The 2009-2010 fiscal year budget is being presented in its final form. • The new budget includes: an increase in the property tax rate—from $3.33 to $3.83 per $1,000—to compensate for the fall in property value, a 3% cost of living increase for 185 positions, the setting aside of $135,000 in reserves for emergencies, and the removal of some capital improvement projects. • Revenues are projected to be $27.7 million. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, July 19, 2009
High electric rates delivering brutal blows • Fort Meade has the highest electric rates in the state of Florida. On average, residents are paying $172.86 per kilowatt-hour. • Many businesses in the area are closing due to their inability to keep up with soaring electric bills. • City officials are trying to determine how best to correct the power contract they have with Florida Municipal Power Agency. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, July 31, 2009
Pension fund may swallow raises • Lakeland city workers’ pension fund dropped by $100-million from October 2007 to October of last year. • City officials report that the fund needs an injection of $10 million during the next three years and that during 30 years of investing, that injection should help cover the shortfall.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
45
Lake l a n d
Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate (percent)
14.0% 12.0%
1
2.5
(Millions 2000 $)
15000.0
13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate
10000.0
220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product
Lakeland Real Personal Income
(Thousands)
46
2
Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product
Lakeland Payroll Employment
160.0
1.5
14000.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.5
(percent change year ago)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income
Lake l a n d
Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL* October 2009 Forecast 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
18.2 -1.9 7.6 10.6 16.5 9.8 31 28.2 37.8 0.9
18.2 -0.5 7.6 10.6 16.5 9.7 31 28.1 38 1.6
18.4 1.1 7.7 10.7 16.7 11 31.2 28.2 38.2 1.9
18.5 1.4 7.7 10.9 16.7 -0.3 31.4 28.3 38.4 1.8
18.7 3 7.7 11 16.8 1.8 31.6 28.4 38.6 2
18.9 3.6 7.7 11.2 16.9 2.2 31.8 28.5 38.7 1.8
19.1 3.8 7.8 11.3 17 2.1 32.1 28.6 38.9 1.7
19.3 4.2 7.8 11.5 17.1 2.3 32.4 28.7 39 1.6
19.6 4.7 7.9 11.7 17.3 2.7 32.8 28.9 39.2 1.6
19.9 5.3 7.9 12 17.5 3.3 33.1 29.1 39.3 1.7
20.2 5.7 8 12.2 17.6 3.7 33.5 29.3 39.5 1.7
20.5 5.9 8.1 12.4 17.8 4.1 33.8 29.4 39.7 1.9
20.7 5.8 8.2 12.6 18 4.1 34.1 29.6 40 2.1
21 5.5 8.3 12.7 18.2 3.9 34.3 29.7 40.2 2.3
198.7 -0.8 14.4 -4.4 184.3 -0.5 10.8 -8.9 45.9 0.8 9.1 25.1 11.1 1.8 -5.4 11.4 -1.4 29.2 -4 30.9 4.4 16.1 0.3 8.6 1.2 1.4 3 28.3 -0.9
198.7 -0.4 14.4 -2.4 184.2 -0.2 10.8 -6.8 45.9 0.7 9 25.1 11 1.9 -2.1 11.3 -1.4 29.2 -3.1 31 4.3 16 0.3 8.6 1.1 1.3 -0.4 28.2 -0.9
198.9 -0.3 14.5 -0.7 184.4 -0.2 10.8 -5 45.9 0.4 9 25.2 11.1 1.9 2 11.4 -0.9 29.3 -2.9 31.1 3.4 16 0.2 8.6 0.6 1.3 -2.6 28.2 -0.7
199.3 0.2 14.5 0.9 184.8 0.1 10.8 -2.1 45.9 0.3 9.1 25.1 11.3 1.9 4.2 11.4 -0.3 29.3 -0.9 31.4 2.8 16 -0.3 8.6 0.3 1.3 -10.1 28.2 -0.5
200.1 0.7 14.7 2.1 185.4 0.6 10.9 0.4 46.2 0.6 9.2 25.1 11.4 1.9 3.8 11.4 0.4 29.4 0.7 31.6 2.3 16 -0.6 8.6 -0.1 1.3 -4.3 28.2 -0.3
200.7 1 14.8 2.7 185.8 0.9 11 1.5 46.5 1.4 9.3 25.2 11.6 1.9 2 11.5 1.2 29.1 -0.2 31.7 2.2 16 0.1 8.6 0 1.3 -1.6 28.2 0
201.4 1.2 15 3.5 186.4 1.1 11.1 2.7 46.9 2.2 9.4 25.3 11.8 1.9 0.5 11.5 1.3 29.1 -0.7 31.6 1.7 16.1 0.8 8.6 -0.2 1.3 -1 28.2 0.3
202.6 1.6 15.1 4.2 187.5 1.4 11.2 3.6 47.3 2.9 9.5 25.4 11.9 1.9 0 11.6 1.7 29.4 0.1 31.8 1.2 16.2 1.2 8.5 -0.3 1.3 -0.7 28.4 0.7
203.9 1.9 15.3 4.2 188.7 1.8 11.3 4.1 47.7 3.2 9.6 25.4 12.2 1.9 0.1 11.7 2.3 29.6 0.9 31.8 0.7 16.2 1.7 8.6 -0.1 1.3 -0.1 28.5 1.1
205.1 2.2 15.4 3.9 189.7 2.1 11.5 4.2 48 3.2 9.7 25.5 12.3 1.9 0.2 11.8 2.6 29.8 2.4 31.9 0.5 16.3 1.8 8.6 0.1 1.3 0.3 28.6 1.5
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
200.3 -3.5 15 -7.6 185.3 -3.1 11.9 -10.9 45.6 -4.4 9.2 24.9 11.2 1.9 -5.3 11.5 -4.4 30.4 -4.3 29.6 1.7 16 -5 8.5 -1.4 1.3 -4.2 28.5 0.6
199.5 -3 14.8 -8.3 184.6 -2.6 11.6 -10.5 45.6 -2.7 9.1 24.9 11.1 1.9 -5.1 11.5 -3.1 30.1 -4.5 29.7 1.5 16 -2.8 8.5 -1.1 1.3 -2.4 28.5 -0.9
199.4 -1.8 14.6 -6.9 184.8 -1.3 11.3 -9.1 45.7 -0.8 9.1 24.8 11.1 1.9 -6.2 11.5 -2.7 30.2 -0.9 30.1 1.6 15.9 -2.4 8.5 0.5 1.4 0.6 28.4 -1.4
198.9 -1.1 14.4 -6.2 184.5 -0.7 11 -9.5 45.8 0.4 9.1 24.9 11 1.8 -7.2 11.4 -1.5 29.6 -3.4 30.5 3.9 16 -0.4 8.5 0.6 1.5 11.8 28.3 -1
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
12934.4 587.2 0.8 273.4 0.2 12.6 1503 1490 13
12973 13026.9 588.7 590.3 0.7 0.6 273 272.8 -0.9 -1 12.9 13.1 1710 2163 1687 2118 23 44
13024 13037.9 13083.9 13135.4 13228.3 13347.6 13452.3 13578.8 13708.8 13844.7 13979.9 591.2 592.1 593.6 595.1 596.8 598.5 600.5 602.8 605.7 608.6 611.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 272.8 272.9 272.9 273.2 273.4 273.7 274.1 274.6 275.3 275.9 276.7 -0.3 -0.2 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.4 12.2 11.9 11.5 11.2 10.8 10.5 2603 3057 3566 4189 4781 5247 5569 5737 5981 6178 6224 2534 2957 3437 4019 4589 5026 5335 5474 5698 5864 5886 68 100 128 170 192 221 234 263 283 314 338
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
47
Lake l a n d
Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL October 2009 Forecast 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
12.5 2.1 5.8 6.7
13.1 4.7 6 7
14.4 10.6 6.5 7.9
15.8 9.8 7.2 8.7
17.1 8.1 7.7 9.5
18 4.7 7.8 10.2
18.5 2.8 7.8 10.7
18.2 -1.2 7.6 10.6
18.6 2.3 7.7 10.9
19.5 4.5 7.9 11.6
20.6 5.7 8.1 12.4
21.7 5.1 8.5 13.1
12 0.6
12.4 2.7
13.3 7.7
14.2 6.7
14.9 5.2
15.3 2.1
15.2 -0.5
16.2 6.9
16.8 3.5
17.2 2.6
17.9 4
18.5 3.5
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
24.9 24.1
25.6 24.3
27.6 25.5
29.3 26.3
30.7 26.8
31.3 26.6
31.7 26.1
31 27.6
31.5 28.4
32.6 28.8
33.9 29.5
35 29.9
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
31.3 1.7
32.5 3.8
33 1.5
34.3 3.7
35.9 4.7
36.4 1.5
37.2 2.1
37.8 1.5
38.5 1.9
39.1 1.6
39.9 2
40.9 2.5
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
182.9 -0.3
184.7 1
195.6 5.9
208.1 6.4
212.6 2.2
212.7 0.1
208.5 -2
201 -3.6
198.9 -1
199.7 0.4
203.3 1.8
207.9 2.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
18.4 -2.2
18.1 -1.9
18.2 0.6
18.3 0.4
17.9 -2.2
17.2 -3.5
16.3 -5.2
15.2 -6.9
14.5 -5
14.6 1.2
15.2 4
15.7 3.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
164.4 -0.1
166.6 1.3
177.4 6.5
189.8 7
194.7 2.6
195.5 0.4
192.2 -1.7
185.8 -3.3
184.5 -0.7
185.1 0.3
188 1.6
192.1 2.2
13.6 -2.8
12.9 -5.1
14.4 11.4
16.2 12.6
16.9 4.1
15.8 -6.5
13.7 -13.4
12 -11.9
11 -8.6
10.9 -1.4
11.3 3.7
11.9 5.4
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
44 -3
42.1 -4.2
43.9 4.3
47.6 8.4
48.9 2.8
49 0.1
47.7 -2.6
45.7 -4.3
45.8 0.3
46.1 0.7
47.5 2.9
48.9 3
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
8.5 25 10.4
9.1 22.5 10.5
9.4 23.5 11
10.3 25.3 12.1
10.4 26.1 12.5
10.1 26.4 12.5
9.6 26.2 12
9.2 25 11.3
9.1 25 11
9.2 25.2 11.4
9.5 25.4 12.1
9.9 25.9 12.7
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4 -4.9
2.2 -7.9
2.2 -1.1
2.3 3
2.4 3
2.2 -7.8
2.1 -4.3
2 -5.7
1.9 -5.3
1.9 3
1.9 0.2
1.9 1.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
10.8 5.3
11 2
10.9 -1
11.1 1.8
11.6 4.1
11.8 2.5
12 1.2
11.6 -3.2
11.4 -1.8
11.4 0.1
11.6 2
11.9 2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
21.6 1.8
26.4 22.2
31.7 20
34.2 8
33.9 -0.8
33 -2.5
32 -3
30.4 -5.1
29.5 -2.8
29.3 -0.8
29.5 0.7
30.3 2.7
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
22.5 -1.3
22.9 1.7
24.1 5.3
25.6 6.1
26.6 4.2
28 5.2
29.1 3.9
29.6 1.6
30.6 3.5
31.4 2.7
31.8 1.1
32 0.7
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
15.8 4.8
15 -5.4
15.3 2.2
16.5 7.7
17 2.7
17.4 2.9
17.1 -1.8
16.1 -6
16 -0.6
16 -0.1
16.2 1.4
16.4 0.9
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
7.4 5.1
7.5 0.9
8 7.6
9 11.9
9.5 5.5
9 -5.3
8.6 -3.9
8.5 -1.7
8.6 0.8
8.6 0.2
8.6 -0.1
8.6 0
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4 3
1.4 -3
1.3 -2.4
1.4 4.4
1.4 -0.6
1.4 1.2
1.4 -0.1
1.3 -4.3
1.4 3.7
1.3 -4.7
1.3 -0.4
1.3 0.3
24.9 0.1
25.3 1.6
25.5 1
26 2
26.7 2.6
27.9 4.3
28.4 2
28.6 0.5
28.3 -1
28.2 -0.4
28.4 0.9
29.1 2.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
11225.8
11657
12186.4
12985.9
13330.3
13234
13177.5
12879.1
13043.2
13290.9
13778
14261.4
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
499.5 1.5
509.5 2
522.9 2.6
540.3 3.3
558.6 3.4
573.4 2.6
581.6 1.4
587.1 0.9
591.8 0.8
597.7 1
607.2 1.6
619.3 2
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
238.1 0.8
239.7 0.7
247.6 3.3
254.2 2.7
260.6 2.5
266.4 2.2
272.8 2.4
273.9 0.4
272.9 -0.4
273.6 0.3
275.6 0.7
279 1.2
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
48
5.8
5.5
4.9
4
3.6
4.5
6.7
12
12.9
12.3
11
9.8
4907 4484 423
6789 6169 620
9088 8297 790
12877 11725 1152
9528 8279 1249
4384 4004 380
3223 2431 792
1387 1376 11
2847 2762 85
4947 4742 204
6030 5731 299
6311 5940 371
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
M iami – F o r t Laude r da l e – M iami B each
P r o fi l e s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University. Quick Facts:
• Metro area population estimate of 5,413,212 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,387,170 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,759,591 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,266,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• A civilian labor force of 2,821,912 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 4% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 114,108 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Miami-Dade County Public School – 54,387 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,265 employees • Federal Government – 20,100 employees • Florida State Government – 18,900 employees • Jackson Health System – 11,700 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 10,300 employees • University of Miami – 9,367 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees • United Parcel Service – 5,000 employees • BellSouth – 4,800 employees Source: Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce
Out l o o k Summa r Y The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach area is expected to show positive growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.6 percent annually. Per capita income, at a level of 41.8, is the second highest in Florida. Average annual wage growth should be 2.4 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 50.2, the highest in the state. Miami is expected to be averaging a population growth of 0.4 percent each year. The area ranked first in the state for gross metro product at a level of 225,597.45 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.6 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 10.0 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Professional and Business Services sector at 5.9 percent annually, followed by Education and Health Services at an average of 1.9 percent growth each year. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Information sector, with an average annual growth rate of -0.6 percent.
M et r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Miami-Dade bus service to be cut on most routes • Miami-Dade transit has downsized bus services on more than 60 routes by reducing frequency of buses and combining or eliminating route segments. • The agency has used state subsidies to launch a new bus route to Miami Beach, and it will add an express bus service to Broward on Interstate 95 in January. • County Manager George M. Burgess said cuts would save the county about $18 million annually and that no layoffs would take place as a result of the reduction. Source: Miami Herald, June 14, 2009
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
49
M iami – F o r t Laude r da l e – M iami B each
Radio, TV Marti to cut 35 positions • In anticipation of federal budget cuts of roughly $4.2 million, Radio and TV Marti will be eliminating 35 positions—downsizing their workforce by over 21%. • The cuts will include eliminating 22 positions entirely and allowing the remaining 13 to accept buyout packages. • The proposed staff cuts of radio and TV anchors reflects Marti’s intention to change its programming schedule by eliminating two evening news shows while making Radio Marti entirely news based. Source: Miami Herald, August 6, 2009
Three South Dade high schools vie to improve FCAT scores • Principals at Southridge, South Dade, and Homestead high schools are trying to improve academics by implementing zero tolerance, advanced classes, and four-course block schedules. • Parents can stay involved by visiting the Parent Portal at DadeSchools.net to monitor their child’s progress. • Homestead and South Dade senior high schools offer academics that prepare students for the future and focus on education, health/science, hospitality and tourism, finance and IT, among others. Source: Miami Herald, August 29, 2009
Digging deeper, Miami considers cutting onceuntouchable agencies • Facing a $118-million budget gap, Miami officials are looking to eliminate the City Hall NET offices, the city’s film office, a historic nonprofit park, and impose cutbacks on police and municipal services. • Even if Mayor Manny Diaz’s $511.4 million budget is accepted in its entirety, it would still leave a $28-million budget shortfall. 50
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
• Director of Florida International University’s Metropolitan Center David Moreno insisted that Miami’s budget crisis was far worse than that of the United States as a whole. Source: Miami Herald, September 20, 2009
Broward government workers who smoke to pay insurance surcharge • In an effort to cut spending, government workers who do not quit smoking by the end of the year will pay higher health-insurance premiums. Employees who refuse to participate in annual health assessments and a blood test will also pay more. • Health insurance for 5,800 county workers costs more than $47 million a year. • The county projected a 7% increase in health insurance spending, but the cost will remain constant as a result of county commissioners’ approval of the surcharges. Source: Miami Herald, September 21, 2009
M iami – F o r t Laude r da l e – M iami B each Miami - Ford Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.6
(Millions 2000 $)
10.0%
220000.0 200000.0
6.0%
180000.0
4.0%
160000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate
140000.0
Miami Payroll Employment 2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Miami Payroll Employment
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product
Miami Real Personal Income
(Thousands)
2000.0
1.4
260000.0 240000.0
2.0%
1.2
Miami Real Gross Metro Product
12.0%
8.0%
1
(percent change year ago)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness
51
M iami – F o r t Laude r da l e – M iami B each
Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL* October 2009 Forecast 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
233.7 -1.9 108.7 125 212.6 9.7 43.1 39.2 47.5 1
234.3 -0.4 108.9 125.4 212.6 9.8 43.3 39.2 47.8 1.8
236.6 1.2 109.9 126.7 214.4 11.2 43.7 39.6 48.1 2.2
239 1.7 110.7 128.3 215.9 0 44.2 39.9 48.4 2.2
241.6 3.4 111.4 130.1 217.2 2.2 44.7 40.2 48.6 2.4
243.9 4.1 112.3 131.6 218.2 2.6 45.2 40.4 48.9 2.3
246.2 4.1 113.3 133 219.3 2.3 45.6 40.6 49.1 2.1
249.2 4.3 114.3 135 221 2.3 46.1 40.9 49.3 2
252.9 4.7 115.4 137.5 223 2.7 46.7 41.2 49.6 1.9
256.6 5.2 116.6 140 225.4 3.3 47.4 41.6 49.8 2
260.3 5.7 118.1 142.2 227.6 3.8 48 42 50.1 2.1
264.2 6 119.8 144.4 230.2 4.2 48.6 42.3 50.4 2.3
267.7 5.9 121.4 146.2 232.4 4.2 49.1 42.6 50.8 2.4
270.8 5.5 123.1 147.8 234.3 4 49.6 42.9 51.1 2.6
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
2275 -3.2 84.1 -8.7 2191 -3 111.8 -14.5 522.8 -2.9 142.4 285.7 91.5 48 -3.6 164 -3.6 342.3 -3.3 331.2 0.9 248.6 -3 101.4 -2.2 33.4 -1.3 287.3 -2.3
2267.4 -2.6 83.4 -7.9 2184 -2.4 109.2 -12.7 521.7 -1.6 141.6 285.1 90.3 47.2 -4.3 163.2 -3.1 341 -2.6 332.2 -0.4 248.1 -1.9 101.4 -2 33.5 -1.7 286.4 -1.5
2269.4 -1.7 82 -8.2 2187.4 -1.4 106.7 -11 522.7 -0.8 140.8 285 89.9 46.1 -6 162.4 -3 345 0.5 334.9 0.4 248.2 -2.2 102 0.6 34.3 0.9 285.1 -1.7
2274.8 -0.6 80.9 -5.5 2193.8 -0.4 103.8 -10.1 523.1 -0.3 140.3 285.7 89.6 45.3 -7.1 161.8 -1.9 347.3 0.9 338.6 2.4 250.2 0.1 102.3 0.7 37.2 11.1 284.3 -1.3
2278.7 0.2 80.6 -4.1 2198.1 0.3 102.2 -8.6 523.8 0.2 139.9 287.1 89.4 45.4 -5.4 161.1 -1.8 350.5 2.4 342.4 3.4 251.3 1.1 102.8 1.3 34.8 4.1 283.7 -1.3
2285.1 0.8 80.9 -3 2204.2 0.9 102.1 -6.6 522.5 0.2 139 287.3 89.1 46.2 -2.2 160.6 -1.6 358.8 5.2 344.1 3.6 250.7 1 102.8 1.4 33.4 -0.2 283 -1.2
2292.6 1 81 -1.3 2211.6 1.1 101.5 -4.8 521.4 -0.2 138.7 287.1 89.4 46.9 1.8 160.7 -1.1 366.9 6.3 345.2 3.1 250.1 0.8 103 1 33.2 -3 282.6 -0.9
2303.1 1.2 81.1 0.2 2222 1.3 101.5 -2.2 521.3 -0.3 139.9 285.2 90.3 47.1 4 161 -0.5 374.7 7.9 347.7 2.7 250.2 0 103 0.7 33.1 -10.9 282.4 -0.7
2315.1 1.6 81.6 1.3 2233.5 1.6 102.1 -0.1 522.9 -0.2 141.6 284.3 91.6 47.1 3.5 161.5 0.2 381.7 8.9 349.9 2.2 250 -0.5 103 0.2 33.1 -5 282.3 -0.5
2327.8 1.9 82.5 2 2245.3 1.9 103 0.9 525.9 0.6 142.5 285.3 92.6 46.9 1.6 162 0.9 387.5 8 351.3 2.1 250.5 -0.1 103.1 0.3 33 -1.3 282.3 -0.3
2343.3 2.2 83.3 2.8 2260 2.2 103.8 2.2 528.9 1.4 143.5 286.1 93.7 46.9 -0.1 162.6 1.2 395.4 7.7 352.1 2 251.9 0.7 103.1 0.1 32.9 -0.9 282.5 0
2361.5 2.5 83.9 3.5 2277.6 2.5 105 3.4 532.2 2.1 144.6 286.8 94.8 46.8 -0.6 163.5 1.5 403.9 7.8 353.3 1.6 253.3 1.2 103 0.1 32.9 -0.6 283.6 0.4
2379.2 2.8 84.6 3.6 2294.7 2.7 106.4 4.3 535.7 2.4 145.9 287.3 96.2 46.8 -0.6 164.8 2.1 411.3 7.8 354.2 1.2 254.6 1.8 103.3 0.3 32.9 -0.4 284.6 0.8
2394.7 2.9 85.3 3.4 2309.5 2.9 108.2 5.1 538.9 2.5 147.3 287.9 97.3 46.7 -0.4 165.8 2.3 416.7 7.5 355 1.1 255.8 2.2 103.5 0.5 33 0 285.9 1.3
211721 5421.7 0 2815.8 -1.3 9.6 5628 3524 2104
212394 5418 -0.2 2806 -2.1 10 6173 4349 1824
213529 5415.5 -0.3 2798.4 -1.7 10.1 6809 4438 2371
214155 5408 -0.3 2792.6 -1.3 11 6972 4632 2339
214934 5403.1 -0.3 2788.4 -1 11 6971 4892 2079
216140 5400.7 -0.3 2786.6 -0.7 11.1 8012 5708 2303
217292 5401.3 -0.3 2788.4 -0.4 11 9836 6982 2854
219192 5405.1 -0.1 2790.4 -0.1 10.8 12416 8789 3627
221428 5410.3 0.1 2793.8 0.2 10.6 15096 10510 4586
223498 5416.2 0.3 2799.3 0.5 10.4 17551 11969 5582
226030 5423.8 0.4 2806 0.6 10.1 20032 13387 6645
228358 5437 0.6 2812.1 0.8 9.8 22691 14973 7718
230693 5450.9 0.7 2820.5 1 9.5 26055 16447 9608
232966 5466 0.9 2828.8 1.1 9.3 28777 17417 11360
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
*Quarterly at an annual rate
52
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
M iami – F o r t Laude r da l e – M iami B each
Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL October 2009 Forecast 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
169.8 3.6 84.1 85.7
174 2.5 87.6 86.4
189.8 9.1 93.5 96.3
205.6 8.3 101.1 104.6
222.6 8.2 108 114.6
232.5 4.5 111.6 120.9
237.3 2.1 111.1 126.3
234.2 -1.3 109 125.2
240.3 2.6 111.1 129.2
251.2 4.6 114.9 136.4
265.8 5.8 120.6 145.2
280 5.4 127.4 152.6
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
164 2.2
164.8 0.5
175.1 6.3
184.3 5.2
194.1 5.3
197.6 1.8
195.2 -1.2
208.5 6.8
216.4 3.8
222.2 2.7
231.1 4
239.8 3.7
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
32.7 31.6
33.1 31.4
35.7 32.9
38.2 34.3
41.2 36
43.1 36.6
43.8 36
43.2 38.4
44.4 40
46.5 41.1
48.8 42.4
50.8 43.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
38 2.7
39.5 3.9
41 3.8
42.7 4.2
44.7 4.8
45.9 2.7
46.7 1.6
47.4 1.5
48.5 2.3
49.5 2
50.6 2.3
52.1 2.9
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
2198.7 -0.2
2204.7 0.3
2270.1 3
2355.1 3.7
2401 2
2416.5 0.6
2364.7 -2.1
2284.5 -3.4
2277 -0.3
2309.6 1.4
2369.7 2.6
2432.2 2.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
112.4 -8.6
103.4 -8
100.8 -2.5
101.1 0.3
100.6 -0.5
98.6 -2
93.2 -5.5
85.6 -8.1
81.1 -5.3
81.5 0.5
84.3 3.3
86.9 3.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2086.3 0.3
2101.3 0.7
2169.3 3.2
2253.9 3.9
2300.4 2.1
2318 0.8
2271.5 -2
2198.9 -3.2
2195.9 -0.1
2228.1 1.5
2285.4 2.6
2345.3 2.6
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
120.9 -1
122.4 1.2
131.5 7.5
147.4 12.1
164.3 11.5
161.1 -2
135.5 -15.9
114.1 -15.8
103.7 -9.1
102 -1.6
105.8 3.7
113.2 7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
516.4 -1.5
510.9 -1.1
517.4 1.3
530.5 2.5
543.7 2.5
550 1.1
541.6 -1.5
524 -3.2
523 -0.2
522.9 0
533.9 2.1
546.6 2.4
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
132.4 286.8 97.1
134.3 282.7 93.9
138.7 285.6 93.2
141.2 294 95.3
144.6 303.4 95.7
147.6 306 96.5
145.2 300.5 95.8
142.7 286.9 92.1
140 286.3 89.5
140.7 285.5 91
145.3 287 95.5
150.5 290.8 100.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
61.8 -6.1
57.5 -6.9
56.6 -1.6
55.9 -1.1
53.2 -4.8
52 -2.4
50.4 -3
48.3 -4.3
45.8 -5.2
47 2.7
46.8 -0.4
47.1 0.7
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
162.8 1.8
164.3 1
170 3.5
178.2 4.8
183.5 2.9
181.3 -1.2
172.2 -5
164.9 -4.2
161.5 -2.1
161.3 -0.1
164.2 1.8
166.9 1.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
324.2 0.1
325.6 0.4
348.4 7
375.1 7.7
375.8 0.2
371.1 -1.2
356.5 -3.9
342.7 -3.9
350.4 2.2
377.7 7.8
406.8 7.7
430.3 5.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
274.6 4.1
284 3.4
293.5 3.4
301.5 2.7
307.9 2.1
318.8 3.5
328.8 3.1
331.8 0.9
340 2.5
348.5 2.5
353.7 1.5
357.4 1.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
224.9 -1.1
229.4 2
240.2 4.7
247.5 3
251.6 1.7
257.9 2.5
257.3 -0.2
250.1 -2.8
250.1 0
250.2 0
253.9 1.5
257.5 1.4
94 0.3
95.8 1.9
97.7 2
99 1.3
99.3 0.3
100.8 1.5
103.6 2.8
101.4 -2.1
102.5 1
103 0.5
103.2 0.2
103.6 0.4
32.1 1.3
34.1 6.2
34.2 0.4
34.5 1
34 -1.4
34 -0.2
34 0.1
33.6 -1.2
34.9 4
33.1 -5.2
32.9 -0.5
33 0.1
274.8 2.5
277.4 1
279.8 0.9
284.3 1.6
287.1 1
291.2 1.4
291.6 0.2
288 -1.3
284 -1.4
282.4 -0.6
284.2 0.6
289.6 1.9
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
181141.5
187611 196703.2 211482.8 218107.7 218047.6 215784.3 210974.4 214689.3 220352.6 229511.6 237836.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
5193.9 1.5
5252.8 1.1
5318.9 1.3
5376.3 1.1
5398.7 0.4
5397 0
5417.8 0.4
5425 0.1
5406.8 -0.3
5408.2 0
5444.4 0.7
5507.1 1.2
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
2573.3 1.1
2587.4 0.5
2619.9 1.3
2683.9 2.4
2750.7 2.5
2811.7 2.2
2850 1.4
2824.5 -0.9
2791.5 -1.2
2793 0.1
2816.9 0.9
2850.7 1.2
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
6.2
5.7
5.1
4.2
3.6
4.1
5.8
9.3
10.8
10.7
9.7
8.8
37858 21870 15987
37956 23592 14364
40690 23676 17014
41844 22548 19295
32801 15772 17029
14808 7592 7216
7959 3711 4248
4482 2996 1485
7191 4918 2273
13725 9563 4162
24389 15556 8833
32481 18897 13585
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
53
Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d
P r o fi l e s The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.” Quick Facts:
• Population estimate of 315,839 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 151,587 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,220 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
Out l o o k Summa r Y The Naples–Marco Island MSA is ranked number one in the state of Florida for personal income growth and per capita income. Personal income will grow at a rate of 6.1 percent and per capita income will average a level of 62.8. Average annual wage will be at a level of 46.4. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 2.5 percent, one of the highest in the state. Population growth will average at 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level will be at 12,251.48 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 1.7 percent growth each year. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 11.1 percent. All sectors in the MSA are expected to see growth. Education and Health Services represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 3.1 percent each year. The Other Services, State and Local Government, and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sectors show the next highest growth rate, at 1.8 percent. The sector that will experience the least growth is the Construction & Mining sector, with an average annual growth rate of 0.2 percent.
• Collier County School Board – 3,350 employees
M et r o Ne w s Summa r ie s
• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,755 employees
FGCU board approves 15% tuition increase, praises university president
• NCH Healthcare Systems – 2,700 employees
• Collier County Government – 1,060 employees
• Marriott Corporation – 860 employees • County Sheriff’s Department – 838 employees
• Winn Dixie Stores, Inc. – 760 employees
• The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 758 employees • Naples Registry Resort – 600 employees • Collier Enterprises – 500 employees
Source: Naples Homes Real Estate and Relocation Services
54
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
• Florida Gulf Coast University Board of Trustees approved a 15% tuition increase for next year. • This will raise annual rates to $4,509 for in-state undergraduate students taking a full 30 credit hours per academic year. Source: Naples News, June 16, 2009
Collier commission promises to find money for Economic Development Council • $400,000 had not been set aside in the county’s budget for the Economic Development Council of Collier County—the county’s annual contribution to the EDC—but the local government has agreed to push this back into the budget.
Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d
• The EDC is in the middle of an initiative called Project Innovation, an effort to attract new and diverse businesses to the area. Source: Naples News, June 30, 2009
Collier, Lee counties to receive over $800,000 each to fight homelessness • The Housing and Urban Development Department announced that both Lee and Collier Counties will be the recipients of over $800,000 in stimulus money to combat homelessness.
• According to officials at the fire department, the salary increase is in line with their fiscal approach to financing; citing that 17 administrative employees have not received a raise since 2007. • Officials at the East Naples Fire District claim that a litany of actions taken to save money more than offset the raises scheduled for fiscal year 2008-2009, which amount to $75,000. Source: Naples News, September 16, 2009
• The funding is going to be distributed under a homelessness prevention program in the stimulus legislation. • The program will focus on two main issues: preventing homelessness and finding places to live for those who are currently homeless. Source: Naples News, July 10, 2009
Money may be gone to preserve Bonita Springs land from development • A new list of potential conservation land buys in Lee County includes a tract of land in Bonita Springs. • The land was included on the county commissioners’ list of 16 approved properties in March for their Conservation 2020 committee. • Since March, 99 purchases have been made (valued at over $251 million), and funding may run out before the tract in Bonita can be purchased. Source: Naples News, July 28, 2009
East Naples fire department awards 6% raises • During a time when most local government agencies are being forced to downsize and lay off employees, East Naples Fire and Rescue is granting 6% administrative raises as well as a 3% increase in union salary.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
55
Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate (percent)
14.0% 12.0%
1
2.5
(Millions 2000 $)
14000.0
10000.0 8000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate
6000.0
(percent change year ago)
140.0
25.0%
130.0
20.0%
120.0
15.0%
110.0
10.0%
100.0
5.0%
90.0
0.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product
Naples Real Personal Income
(Thousands)
56
2
Naples Real Gross Metro Product
Naples Payroll Employment
80.0
1.5
12000.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.5
-5.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income
Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d
Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL* October 2009 Forecast 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
20.1 -1.7 5.2 14.9 18.3 10 63.5 57.7 43.8 -2.2
20.3 0.4 5.2 15.1 18.4 10.7 64 58.1 44 1.9
20.5 2.6 5.3 15.3 18.6 12.7 64.7 58.6 44.3 2.2
20.8 3.9 5.3 15.5 18.8 2.1 65.6 59.2 44.6 2.3
21.2 5.3 5.3 15.8 19 4.1 66.6 59.8 44.9 2.5
21.4 5.8 5.4 16.1 19.2 4.4 67.4 60.3 45.1 2.4
21.7 5.8 5.4 16.3 19.3 4 68.1 60.7 45.3 2.2
22.1 6 5.5 16.6 19.6 4.1 69 61.2 45.5 2.1
22.5 6.4 5.5 17 19.9 4.4 70.2 61.9 45.8 2.1
23 7.1 5.6 17.4 20.2 5.1 71.4 62.7 46 2.1
23.4 7.6 5.6 17.7 20.4 5.5 72.4 63.3 46.3 2.2
23.8 7.8 5.7 18.1 20.7 5.9 73.4 64 46.6 2.4
24.2 7.4 5.8 18.4 21 5.7 74.4 64.6 46.9 2.5
24.5 6.7 5.9 18.6 21.2 5.1 75 64.9 47.3 2.7
118.4 0.3 2.6 -4.9 115.8 0.4 10.7 -7.7 22.4 1.1 3.2 18.6 1.4 1.6 -3.4 7 -1.2 14.8 -2.7 17.9 6.2 21.3 1.6 6.1 2.7 0.7 5 13.2 0.9
118.6 0.6 2.6 -1.9 116 0.7 10.7 -6.3 22.5 1.6 3.2 18.6 1.4 1.7 -0.2 7 -1.3 14.8 -2.5 18.1 6 21.3 1.5 6.1 2.7 0.7 1.8 13.2 0.9
118.9 0.7 2.7 0.1 116.2 0.7 10.6 -4.9 22.5 1.4 3.2 18.7 1.4 1.7 3.5 7 -0.6 14.9 -2.3 18.2 4.8 21.3 1.4 6.1 2.3 0.7 -0.8 13.2 1
119.3 1 2.7 1.9 116.6 0.9 10.6 -2.5 22.5 1 3.3 18.7 1.4 1.7 6 7.1 0.1 14.9 -0.3 18.3 3.9 21.4 1 6.2 2 0.7 -8.5 13.3 1
119.8 1.2 2.7 3 117.1 1.2 10.6 -0.5 22.6 0.8 3.4 18.7 1.4 1.7 6.1 7.1 1.1 14.9 1.2 18.5 3.1 21.5 0.7 6.2 1.6 0.7 -3.2 13.3 1
120.4 1.5 2.7 3.4 117.6 1.5 10.7 0.7 22.8 1.3 3.4 18.8 1.4 1.7 4.3 7.1 2.1 14.9 0.7 18.5 2.6 21.6 1.4 6.2 1.7 0.7 -0.8 13.3 1.1
120.9 1.7 2.8 4.2 118.2 1.7 10.8 2.1 22.9 1.8 3.4 18.9 1.5 1.7 2.6 7.2 2.2 14.9 0.4 18.5 2 21.8 2 6.2 1.4 0.7 -0.1 13.4 1.2
121.9 2.2 2.8 4.7 119.1 2.2 10.9 3.3 23.1 2.7 3.5 19.1 1.5 1.7 1.8 7.3 2.9 15.1 1.3 18.6 1.6 21.9 2.4 6.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 13.5 1.8
123 2.6 2.8 4.7 120.2 2.6 11.1 4.4 23.3 3.2 3.5 19.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 7.4 3.9 15.3 2.2 18.7 1.2 22.1 2.9 6.3 1.5 0.7 0.9 13.6 2.2
124 3 2.9 4.3 121.2 3 11.3 5.2 23.5 3.3 3.6 19.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 7.5 4.7 15.4 3.5 18.7 1.1 22.3 3 6.3 1.7 0.7 1.4 13.7 2.7
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
118 -3.6 2.8 -3.4 115.3 -3.6 11.6 -17.2 22.2 -4.2 3.3 18.4 1.4 1.7 -5.8 7.1 -1.3 15.2 1.1 16.9 3.1 21 -5.4 5.9 -1.9 0.7 9.7 13 -1.5
117.8 -4.1 2.7 -5.6 115.2 -4 11.4 -15.3 22.1 -6.4 3.3 18.3 1.4 1.7 -4.5 7.1 -1.6 15.2 -1.3 17 2.4 21 -4.6 5.9 -0.4 0.7 3.6 13.1 -1.8
118.1 -2.1 2.7 -6.3 115.4 -2 11.1 -11.1 22.2 -4.6 3.2 18.3 1.4 1.6 -4.2 7.1 -3.6 15.2 0.4 17.3 3.6 21 -1.3 6 1.7 0.7 1.3 13.1 -0.6
118.2 -0.2 2.6 -7.4 115.6 0 10.9 -9.3 22.3 0.4 3.2 18.4 1.4 1.6 -5.2 7.1 -0.9 14.9 -1.7 17.7 5.8 21.2 0.8 6 2.2 0.8 13.2 13.1 0.8
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
11411.3 11465.1 11537.2 11562.3 11602.9 11666.9 11736.8 316.5 316.8 317.3 317.5 317.8 318.2 318.9 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 150.3 150.7 151.2 151.8 152.5 153.2 154 -0.5 -0.7 0.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.4 12.5 12.4 12.2 981 1175 1420 1606 1854 2148 2467 774 876 1047 1211 1393 1629 1935 207 299 372 395 461 519 532
11852 11986.1 12102.2 12234.1 12378.5 12531.7 12686.8 319.7 320.6 321.7 322.6 323.9 325.1 326.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 154.8 155.7 156.5 157.5 158.6 159.6 160.7 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 12 11.8 11.5 11.2 10.8 10.4 10.1 2820 3199 3513 3736 4026 4307 4498 2265 2539 2759 2896 3093 3255 3332 555 660 754 840 933 1052 1167
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
57
Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d
Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL October 2009 Forecast 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
11.6 4.9 4 7.6
12.3 5.9 4.4 7.9
14.8 20.8 4.9 9.9
16.5 10.9 5.5 11
18.7 13.4 5.9 12.8
19.8 6.3 6 13.8
20.3 2.5 5.6 14.8
20.1 -1.2 5.2 14.9
21 4.4 5.3 15.7
22.3 6.4 5.5 16.8
24 7.3 5.8 18.2
25.5 6.3 6.1 19.3
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
11.2 3.5
11.6 3.8
13.7 17.6
14.7 7.7
16.3 10.4
16.9 3.6
16.7 -0.8
17.9 7
18.9 5.6
19.7 4.4
20.8 5.6
21.8 4.6
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
42 40.6
43 40.7
50.1 46.3
53.8 48.2
59.9 52.2
63.2 53.7
64.5 53
63.5 56.5
66.1 59.5
69.7 61.6
73.8 64.2
77 66
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
35.6 1.6
38.7 8.6
40.4 4.5
42.6 5.4
43.3 1.7
45.3 4.7
44.4 -2.1
43.7 -1.5
44.7 2.3
45.7 2.1
46.8 2.5
48.2 3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
110.8 4.1
114.2 3
120.6 5.7
128.3 6.3
135 5.2
132 -2.3
124.6 -5.6
118.7 -4.7
118.3 -0.3
119.6 1.1
122.5 2.4
126.6 3.4
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
3.1 -3.4
2.9 -5.3
3.1 5.9
3.2 3
3.3 3.6
3.3 -1.3
2.9 -10.8
2.8 -4.8
2.6 -5.1
2.7 2.1
2.8 4.5
2.9 3.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
107.7 4.3
111.2 3.3
117.5 5.7
125.1 6.4
131.7 5.3
128.7 -2.3
121.6 -5.5
115.9 -4.7
115.7 -0.2
116.9 1.1
119.7 2.4
123.7 3.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
14.7 1.1
14.6 -0.8
16.8 14.8
20.3 21.3
23.9 17.6
19.7 -17.8
14.7 -25.5
11.9 -19
10.8 -8.7
10.6 -1.9
11 3.8
11.9 7.6
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
22.7 2.1
22.4 -1.3
23 2.4
24.3 5.6
24.5 0.9
24.2 -1.3
23.5 -2.8
22.4 -4.5
22.3 -0.4
22.6 1.1
23.2 2.8
24 3.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.3 17.6 1.9
3.1 17.7 1.7
3.3 18 1.7
3.4 19.1 1.8
3.2 19.5 1.7
3.4 19.2 1.6
3.4 18.6 1.5
3.3 18.4 1.4
3.2 18.5 1.4
3.3 18.7 1.4
3.5 19.1 1.5
3.7 19.7 1.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.8 -0.9
1.7 -3.3
1.8 7.3
1.8 0
1.9 3.2
1.8 -5
1.8 -1.6
1.7 -4.7
1.6 -3.3
1.7 5
1.7 1.9
1.8 2.3
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.5 4.6
6.7 2.6
7.1 5.8
7.7 9.3
8.2 5.7
8.2 0.1
7.4 -9.1
7.2 -3.3
7 -1.8
7.1 0.7
7.3 3.4
7.6 4.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
13.4 7.1
16.1 19.8
17.4 8.1
16.3 -6.5
16.8 3.2
15.8 -6.2
15.3 -3.2
15.2 -0.6
14.9 -1.6
14.9 -0.2
15.2 1.8
15.7 3.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
12.8 5.1
13.2 3.3
13.4 1.9
14.5 7.9
15.4 6
16.2 5.5
16.5 1.7
16.8 2.1
17.7 5.4
18.4 3.6
18.6 1.5
19 1.8
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
18.3 5.3
18.5 1.2
20 8.2
21.5 7.4
21.9 1.8
23 4.9
22.5 -2.3
21.1 -6.1
21.2 0.6
21.5 1.1
22 2.6
22.5 2.2
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
5.5 7
5.5 -0.3
5.4 -1.4
5.7 5.2
5.8 1.9
5.9 3.2
6.1 2.7
5.9 -3.2
6.1 2.3
6.2 1.9
6.3 1.5
6.4 1.6
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7 0
0.7 0
0.7 0
0.7 0.1
0.7 0
0.7 0
0.7 -3.8
0.7 2.8
0.7 5.3
0.7 -3.4
0.7 0.6
0.7 1.5
11.3 7.2
11.8 4.5
11.9 0.9
12.3 2.9
12.7 3.4
13.3 4.6
13.3 0.2
13.1 -1.8
13.1 0.5
13.3 1
13.5 2
14 3.7
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
9430.7
10212.2
11154.7
12319.8
12507.7
12237.3
11720.9
11368.9
11592.3
11919.3
12457.7
13036.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
276.1 4
285.7 3.5
296 3.6
305.9 3.4
311.6 1.8
313.8 0.7
315.5 0.5
316.5 0.3
317.7 0.4
320.2 0.8
324.6 1.4
330.5 1.8
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
129.6 4.9
133.1 2.7
138.1 3.7
145.2 5.2
152.7 5.2
153.2 0.3
151.8 -0.9
150.5 -0.8
152.2 1.1
155.3 2
159.1 2.5
163.6 2.9
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
58
5.1
4.9
4.2
3.4
3.1
4.2
6.7
11.5
12.5
11.9
10.6
9.5
7078 4279 2799
5334 3403 1932
6101 4018 2083
5724 4038 1686
4256 3050 1206
1961 1161 800
986 688 298
970 771 200
1757 1320 437
3000 2375 625
4142 3144 998
4816 3478 1339
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
Oca l a
P r o fi l e s Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area. Quick Facts:
• Population estimate of 324,857 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 136,167 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,800 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• Marion County School Board – 6,000+ employees
• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,500 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,385 employees
• State of Florida (all departments) – 2,263 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,450 employees • Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,342 employees
• Ocala Regional Medical Center – 1,301 employees
• Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 employees • City of Ocala – 1,244 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees
Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council
Out l o o k Summa r Y The Ocala MSA is expected to show varying growth and decline in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.3 percent annually, the third highest growth in the state. Personal income level is the lowest in the state at a level of 28.8. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level, at 37.3. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.4 percent. The metro has the highest expected annual population growth in the state at 1.6 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,548.30 (Mill), the lowest in the state. Employment growth is expected to be 1.4 percent. Ocala’s unemployment rate will be at an annual average of 13.0 percent, the highest unemployment rate in Florida. Education and Health Services expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging annual growth of 2.4 percent, followed by the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector, which will grow at 2.0 percent annually, and the Leisure sector at 1.4 percent. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Information sector, with an average annual declining rate of -0.1 percent.
M et r o Ne w s Summa r ie s 381 acres in NW Marion will never be developed • The Marion County Commission approved the addition of property located between county roads 316 and 318, seven miles west of I-75, to the Transfer of Development Rights, or TDR program. • The TDR program gives credits to owners to build elsewhere in the county when they place their rural or environmentally sensitive land into conservation. • Marion County has preserved 3,580 acres under the four-year-old TDR program. By 2015, the county’s objective is to place 5,000 acres in conservation under the program. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, July 15, 2009
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
59
Oca l a
County approves $192M spending proposal for new facilities • Over the next five years, Marion County will invest in a variety of new buildings, improvements to roads and parks, and in water system repairs. • Major projects include $63.2 million to build new wastewater and sewage plants and $21.5 million in 2014 for construction of a Marion County Fire Rescue headquarters. • The projects are funded by borrowing, grants, contributions, and taxes. About $36 million of proposed projects do not have an identified revenue source at this time. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, August 19, 2009
Lawyer indicates TBW may not restructure out of bankruptcy • Ocala-based Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp. filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy in August. Florida mortgage regulators ordered a cease-anddesist order and suspended its license to originate and service loans in Florida. • Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, and The Federal Housing Administration cut off ties with the mortgage company after auditors found false or misleading documents. • Taylor Bean missed the deadline to petition the suspension of its license. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, August 30, 2009
County tax rate on track to stay put • Marion County commissioners adopted a base property tax rate of $3.90 per $1,000 of taxable value, a level one cent higher than the current rate. • Marion County property tax revenues are expected to be almost $10 million less next budget compared to the current year.
60
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
• Residents spoke against the increase in taxes despite the decline in the market value of their homes. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, September 11, 2009
Evergreen reborn as a demonstration school • The recently remodeled school installed new learning-based technologies such as wireless microphones for teachers and interactive tablets that project onto a white board. • During the summer, the school hired new staff and teachers eager to apply these innovative teaching styles and embrace technology. • Evergreen Elementary School, which has not met No Child Left Behind criteria, also plans to have “Literacy Nights” to teach parents how to help their children academically. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, September 13, 2009
Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate (percent)
16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.6
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Ocala Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)
7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0 5500.0 5000.0 4500.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate
4000.0
Ocala Payroll Employment
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product
Ocala Real Personal Income
(Thousands)
(percent change year ago)
110.0
12.0%
105.0
10.0% 8.0%
100.0
6.0%
95.0
4.0%
90.0
2.0%
85.0 80.0
0.8
0.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Ocala Payroll Employment
-2.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness
61
Oca l a
Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL* October 2009 Forecast 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
10 -1.4 3.5 6.5 9.1 10.4 30 27.3 35.3 1
10.1 0.2 3.5 6.6 9.1 10.5 30.1 27.3 35.5 1.8
10.2 1.8 3.5 6.7 9.2 11.8 30.3 27.5 35.8 2.1
10.3 2.4 3.5 6.7 9.3 0.6 30.6 27.7 36 2.2
10.4 4 3.6 6.9 9.4 2.8 31 27.9 36.1 2.3
10.5 4.7 3.6 7 9.4 3.2 31.3 28 36.3 2.2
10.7 4.8 3.6 7.1 9.5 3.1 31.6 28.1 36.5 2
10.8 5.2 3.6 7.2 9.6 3.3 31.9 28.3 36.7 1.9
11 5.7 3.7 7.3 9.7 3.7 32.3 28.5 36.8 1.9
11.2 6.3 3.7 7.5 9.8 4.3 32.8 28.8 37 2
11.4 6.7 3.7 7.6 10 4.7 33.1 29 37.3 2.1
11.6 6.9 3.8 7.8 10.1 5.1 33.5 29.1 37.5 2.2
11.8 6.7 3.9 7.9 10.2 5 33.7 29.3 37.7 2.4
11.9 6.2 3.9 8 10.3 4.6 34 29.4 38 2.6
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
98.3 -3.8 6.9 -15.1 91.4 -2.9 8.7 -7.8 21.5 -4.9 4.1 14.7 2.7 1.8 -4.1 5.8 -2.7 7.7 -5.2 14.2 1.1 9.9 -3.5 4.3 0.8 0.7 -0.9 16.8 -0.3
98.1 -2.9 6.8 -11.3 91.2 -2.2 8.5 -7.7 21.5 -2.2 4.1 14.7 2.7 1.7 -3.5 5.7 -1.8 7.7 -4.6 14.3 1.6 9.9 -2.9 4.3 0.3 0.7 -0.6 16.8 -1.5
98 -2 6.7 -7.9 91.2 -1.6 8.3 -8.8 21.6 -0.2 4.1 14.7 2.7 1.7 -6.2 5.7 -3.1 7.7 -0.9 14.4 1.1 9.9 -2.2 4.4 1.2 0.7 -0.8 16.8 -1.3
97.9 -0.7 6.7 -5.4 91.3 -0.3 8.1 -8.4 21.7 1.2 4.1 14.8 2.7 1.7 -7.1 5.7 -1.8 7.5 -2.7 14.6 3.5 10.1 0.8 4.4 1.4 0.8 11 16.8 -0.3
98 -0.3 6.6 -4 91.3 0 8 -7.7 21.8 1.5 4.1 14.9 2.7 1.7 -5.3 5.7 -1.8 7.4 -3.5 14.8 4 10.1 1.7 4.4 1.8 0.7 2.7 16.8 -0.3
98.1 0 6.7 -2.8 91.4 0.2 8 -5.8 21.8 1.5 4.1 15 2.6 1.7 -1.9 5.6 -1.8 7.4 -3.4 14.8 4 10.1 1.5 4.4 2 0.7 -0.1 16.8 -0.2
98.2 0.2 6.7 -1.1 91.5 0.3 8 -4 21.9 1 4.1 15 2.6 1.7 2.4 5.6 -1.3 7.5 -2.6 14.9 3.2 10.1 1.5 4.4 1.6 0.7 -1 16.8 -0.1
98.5 0.6 6.7 0.3 91.8 0.6 8 -1.2 21.9 0.7 4.1 15 2.7 1.7 4.5 5.7 -0.5 7.5 -0.6 15 2.9 10.1 0.7 4.4 1.5 0.7 -8.7 16.8 0.2
99 1 6.7 1.4 92.2 1 8.1 1.2 22 0.6 4.2 15 2.7 1.7 4 5.7 0.5 7.5 0.9 15.2 2.6 10.1 0.3 4.4 1.2 0.7 -3.3 16.8 0.4
99.5 1.4 6.8 2 92.7 1.4 8.2 2.3 22.1 1.3 4.2 15.1 2.8 1.7 2 5.7 1.4 7.5 0.6 15.2 2.7 10.2 0.9 4.5 1.4 0.7 -0.9 16.9 0.7
100 1.8 6.9 2.9 93.1 1.7 8.3 3.6 22.3 2 4.2 15.2 2.8 1.7 0.5 5.7 1.7 7.5 0.1 15.2 2.4 10.3 1.6 4.5 1.2 0.7 -0.5 16.9 1
100.8 2.3 6.9 3.6 93.8 2.2 8.4 4.6 22.5 2.8 4.3 15.3 2.8 1.7 0.1 5.8 2.2 7.6 1 15.3 2.1 10.3 2.1 4.5 1.1 0.7 -0.2 17 1.4
101.6 2.6 7 3.7 94.6 2.5 8.5 5.2 22.7 3.3 4.3 15.3 2.9 1.7 0.2 5.9 3 7.6 1.8 15.4 1.7 10.4 2.7 4.5 1.3 0.7 0.5 17.1 1.8
102.3 2.8 7 3.5 95.3 2.8 8.6 5.5 22.9 3.3 4.4 15.4 2.9 1.7 0.3 5.9 3.4 7.7 2.8 15.5 1.6 10.5 2.9 4.5 1.4 0.7 0.9 17.3 2.2
6150.7 333.9 0.9 140.1 0.6 14.2 858 812 45
6177.4 334.7 0.7 140.1 -0.5 14.5 1119 1057 62
6206.6 335.6 0.5 140.2 -0.5 14.7 1406 1330 76
6211.3 335.9 0.8 140.3 0.3 14.5 1650 1568 81
6222.1 336.3 0.7 140.5 0.3 14.5 1894 1803 91
6248.8 337.2 0.7 140.7 0.4 14.4 2219 2120 99
6276.6 338.1 0.8 141 0.5 14.3 2570 2472 98
6331.4 339.3 1 141.3 0.7 14 2949 2854 95
6398.9 340.6 1.3 141.7 0.8 13.8 3270 3168 102
6463.8 342.1 1.5 142.1 1 13.4 3507 3403 104
6537.3 343.9 1.7 142.6 1.1 13.1 3656 3547 109
6615.3 346.1 2 143.2 1.4 12.7 3870 3761 109
6694.8 348.4 2.3 143.8 1.5 12.2 4059 3938 121
6773 350.6 2.5 144.5 1.7 11.9 4153 4021 132
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
*Quarterly at an annual rate
62
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
Oca l a
Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL October 2009 Forecast 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
6.3 2.2 2.4 3.9
6.7 6.9 2.7 4.1
7.5 10.9 2.9 4.6
8.3 11.6 3.2 5.1
9.3 11.9 3.6 5.7
9.8 5.4 3.6 6.2
10.1 2.9 3.6 6.5
10 -0.7 3.5 6.5
10.4 3.2 3.6 6.8
10.9 5.5 3.7 7.3
11.7 6.6 3.8 7.8
12.3 5.8 4.1 8.3
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
6.1 0.8
6.4 4.8
6.9 8.1
7.5 8.4
8.1 8.9
8.4 2.8
8.3 -0.4
8.9 7.5
9.3 4.4
9.7 3.6
10.1 4.9
10.6 4.2
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
23.1 22.3
24 22.7
25.6 23.6
27.5 24.6
29.6 25.8
30.3 25.7
30.6 25.2
30.1 26.8
30.8 27.8
32.1 28.4
33.6 29.2
34.6 29.6
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
27.8 4.4
29.4 5.9
30.2 2.7
31.3 3.7
33.6 7.4
34 1
34.7 2.2
35.3 1.6
36 2.2
36.8 2
37.6 2.3
38.7 2.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
87 0.4
89.9 3.4
95.9 6.6
101.5 5.9
106.1 4.5
106.8 0.6
103 -3.5
98.7 -4.1
98 -0.8
98.8 0.8
101.1 2.4
104.2 3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
9.3 -5.5
9.2 -1
9.6 4
9.9 3.6
9.9 -0.7
9.6 -3
8.3 -13.2
7 -15.6
6.7 -5.1
6.7 0.6
6.9 3.4
7.2 3.3
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
77.7 1.1
80.7 3.9
86.3 6.9
91.6 6.1
96.3 5.1
97.2 1
94.7 -2.6
91.7 -3.1
91.3 -0.4
92.1 0.8
94.2 2.3
97 3
7.3 4.3
8.5 15.3
9.9 16.7
10.7 8.8
12.6 17
11.6 -7.6
9.7 -16.1
8.8 -9.9
8.1 -7.7
8.1 -0.5
8.5 4.8
9 7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
20.5 -0.7
20.9 2
21.7 3.6
22.9 5.6
23.4 1.9
23.8 1.8
22.7 -4.3
21.5 -5.3
21.8 1
22 0.9
22.6 2.8
23.3 3.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.1 14.8 2.6
3.3 15.1 2.5
3.6 15.6 2.5
3.9 16.3 2.7
4.2 16.4 2.7
4.4 16.4 2.9
4.1 15.7 2.9
4.1 14.7 2.7
4.1 14.8 2.7
4.1 15 2.7
4.3 15.3 2.9
4.5 15.7 3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3 -4.5
2.2 -5.2
2.2 1.2
2.2 -2.3
2.1 -1.9
2 -7.2
1.9 -3.9
1.8 -5.7
1.7 -5.2
1.7 3.2
1.7 0.3
1.8 1.4
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
4 1.1
4.3 9.2
4.9 12.5
5.4 11.1
5.7 6
6 3.6
5.9 -0.2
5.8 -2.5
5.7 -2.2
5.7 0
5.8 2.6
6 2.9
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
7.2 0.5
7.6 4.8
8.2 7.5
8.9 9.5
9.3 4.1
8.5 -8.2
8.2 -4.4
7.7 -5.6
7.5 -2.6
7.5 -0.4
7.6 1.4
7.8 3.2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
9.7 5.3
10.5 8.5
11.1 6
12 7.6
12.7 5.8
13.3 4.8
13.9 4.7
14.2 2.1
14.7 3.1
15.1 2.9
15.4 1.9
15.6 1.8
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
7.6 0.3
7.7 0.9
8.7 13.1
9.2 6.3
9.7 4.8
10.6 9.5
10.4 -2.1
10 -3.6
10 0.4
10.1 0.8
10.4 2.3
10.6 2
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
3.6 3.6
3.6 -1.6
3.8 7.7
4 5.2
4.1 1.9
4.3 4.7
4.3 0
4.3 0.4
4.4 1.6
4.4 1.4
4.5 1.2
4.6 1.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7 2.3
0.7 -2.3
0.7 0
0.7 0
0.7 0
0.7 0
0.7 1.1
0.7 -2
0.7 3.1
0.7 -3.6
0.7 0.2
0.7 1
14.7 0.7
14.7 0.4
15.1 2.4
15.4 2.3
16 3.6
16.5 2.9
16.9 2.6
16.9 0
16.8 -0.5
16.8 0.3
17.1 1.6
17.6 3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
4765.8
5166.5
5513.2
6066.3
6450.1
6422.5
6302.2
6126.8
6222.2
6367.7
6655.1
6948.2
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
272.2 2.6
280.5 3
291.2 3.8
303 4.1
314.9 3.9
324.5 3
330.3 1.8
334 1.1
336.2 0.7
340.1 1.1
347.3 2.1
356.5 2.6
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
111.7 2.2
114.3 2.3
118.9 4.1
125.8 5.7
132.2 5.1
136.3 3.1
139.1 2.1
140.2 0.8
140.4 0.1
141.5 0.8
143.5 1.4
146.4 2
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5.9
5.4
4.6
3.8
3.4
4.5
7.7
13.4
14.5
13.9
12.5
11.2
5741 5258 484
6723 5985 738
5087 4998 88
7169 6614 555
7218 6862 357
3117 2803 314
1275 1256 19
734 695 39
1792 1705 87
3074 2974 100
3935 3817 118
4251 4104 147
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
63
O r l a n d o – K i s s immee
P r o fi l e s The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s seventh-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. Quick Facts:
• MSA population estimate of 2,032,496 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Lake County population estimate of 301,059 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,066,113 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 255,815 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Seminole County population estimate of 409,509 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,096,524 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 4.3% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 46,649 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• Walt Disney Co. – 59,500 employees
• Orange County Public Schools – 24,063 employees
• Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 16,002 employees
• Publix Super Markets Inc. – 15,606 employees • Universal Orlando – 13,000 employees 64
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
• Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 10,000 employees • University of Central Florida – 8,946 employees
• Lockheed Martin Corporation – 7,200 employees
• Seminole County Public Schools – 7,000 employees
• Marriott International Inc. – 6,312 employees Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission & Orange County Library System
Out l o o k Summa r Y The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show positive growth in the next few years. Personal income is expected to be the second highest in the state, growing at a rate of 5.4 percent. Per capita income is expected to be at a level of 32.8. Average annual wage growth will be 2.3 percent while the average annual wage level will be at 43.9. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 1.2 percent, one of the highest in the state. Gross metro product is also expected to be one of the highest in the state, averaging 90,999.75 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.4 percent annually, the highest in the state. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 10.1 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 6.2 percent. This will be followed by Education and Health Services and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, with average annual growth rates of 2.7 and 2.0 percent, respectively. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Information sector, with an average annual declining rate of -0.4 percent.
M et r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Orlando airport April traffic down 7.3% • Orlando International Airport reports that domestic traveler counts have dropped by 8.51%, but its international passenger count increased
O r l a n d o – K i s s immee
by 7.44% in April, leading to a total decline in traffic of 7.26%. • The airport had 2.8 million domestic passengers during April and 281,000 international travelers, bringing their overall passenger count to 3.08 million. • Domestic traffic at Orlando International Airport is down 12.4%, while international traffic is up 1.24% for the year. Source: Orlando Business Journal, June 4, 2009
Analyst: Orlando hotels stuck in slump • According to PKF Hospitality Research, Orlando hotels will suffer a 21.8% decline in revenue per available room when compared to 2008. • The opening of three large Hilton hotels may be responsible for the sharp decline in revenue, as the industry experienced a 9.7% decrease in demand and a 2.6% increase in supply. • PKF expects Orlando hotel occupancy to fall more than 8% and room rates to decline by 11.1% when compared to 2008 figures. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 1, 2009
Rally against university budget cuts draws more than 100
Orlando No. 10 on foreclosure list • One in every 23 households, or 4.28% of homes in Orlando reported a foreclosure filing in the first half of the year, a figure that is up 76% from this time last year. • Orlando is one of six Florida metro areas in the top 20 cities with the highest foreclosure rates in the first half of the year, according to a RealtyTrac study. • The study reports areas with at least one foreclosure filing from January-June of 2009, covering over 2,200 U.S. counties. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 30, 2009
13 Orlando police jobs saved • In May, Orlando decided it would eliminate around 342 city jobs in an effort to save $34 million in the face of a budget crisis. • The city’s 2009-2010 budget called for the elimination of 30 police positions: ten of which are already vacant, seven officers still in the police academy, and thirteen active officers. • Part of the federal stimulus, the $3.1 million COPS Federal Hiring Recovery grant will provide funding for the city to pay salaries of 15 police officers for the next three years. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 30, 2009
• Even in the midst of a rally of more than 100 students and faculty, the UCF board of trustees voted to eliminate four academic programs and suspend another, a decision that would affect more than 1,000 students and cut costs by $4 million a year. • Over the past two years, UCF, like many other state-funded schools in Florida, has lost more than $77 million in funding and will likely build a $17-million deficit over the next two years. • UCF originally considered eliminating six programs, but decided to allow Statistics to stay open and only suspended the actuarial program. Source: Orlando Sentinel, July 13, 2009 Institute for Economic Competitiveness
65
O r l a n d o – K i s s immee Orlando - Kissimee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate (percent)
12.0%
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Orlando Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)
100000.0 90000.0
10.0% 80000.0
8.0% 6.0%
70000.0
4.0%
60000.0
2.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate
50000.0
Orlando Payroll Employment
Orlando Real Personal Income
(Thousands)
1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0
66
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product
(percent change year ago)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income
O r l a n d o – K i s s immee
Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL* October 2009 Forecast 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
70.1 -2.4 42.8 27.4 63.8 9.2 33.9 30.8 41.6 1.4
70.4 -0.7 42.9 27.5 63.9 9.4 34 30.8 41.8 1.9
71.1 1.3 43.2 27.9 64.4 11.2 34.3 31.1 42.1 2.1
71.9 2.2 43.6 28.3 64.9 0.4 34.7 31.3 42.3 2.1
72.7 3.7 44 28.7 65.3 2.4 35.1 31.5 42.6 2.3
73.5 4.3 44.4 29.1 65.8 2.9 35.4 31.7 42.8 2.2
74.3 4.5 44.8 29.5 66.2 2.7 35.8 31.9 43 2.1
75.3 4.8 45.3 30 66.8 2.9 36.2 32 43.2 2
76.5 5.3 45.9 30.7 67.5 3.3 36.6 32.3 43.4 1.9
77.8 5.9 46.5 31.3 68.3 3.9 37.1 32.6 43.6 1.9
79.2 6.5 47.2 31.9 69.2 4.5 37.6 32.9 43.8 2
80.5 6.9 48 32.5 70.2 5.1 38.1 33.2 44.1 2.1
81.9 7 48.8 33 71.1 5.3 38.5 33.4 44.4 2.3
83.1 6.8 49.6 33.4 71.9 5.2 38.8 33.6 44.7 2.5
1028.9 0.5 37.9 -3.3 990.9 0.6 56.9 -7.1 194.6 1.1 44.8 115.5 30.2 23.3 -6.2 64 -1.7 168.6 1.6 121.9 3.5 190.5 1.4 51.9 1.6 12.2 4.8 107.1 0.2
1033.6 1.2 38.1 -2.1 995.4 1.4 57 -5.1 194.6 1.1 44.6 115.9 30.1 23.7 -3.1 63.8 -1.2 172.5 4.4 122.6 3.8 190.3 1.5 52 1.9 11.8 0.8 107.2 0.2
1039.1 1.6 38.2 -0.5 1000.8 1.7 56.9 -3.5 194.6 0.6 44.6 116.2 30.2 24 0.8 64 -0.6 176.5 5.9 123.2 3.5 190.3 1.4 52.3 1.6 11.7 -1.8 107.3 0.4
1046.2 2 38.4 1 1007.9 2 57.1 -0.8 194.9 0.5 45.1 115.8 30.6 24.2 3.5 64.3 0.2 180.5 7.9 124.4 3.4 190.8 0.8 52.4 1.5 11.7 -10.2 107.6 0.5
1054.2 2.5 38.7 2 1015.6 2.5 57.7 1.4 195.9 0.6 45.8 115.8 31 24.2 3.7 64.7 1.1 184.2 9.2 125.7 3.1 191.1 0.4 52.6 1.3 11.7 -4.2 107.8 0.7
1063.1 2.9 39.2 2.7 1023.9 2.9 58.4 2.5 197.5 1.5 46.2 116.6 31.4 24.2 2.1 65.1 2 187.5 8.7 126.6 3.3 192 0.9 52.8 1.6 11.7 -0.7 108.2 0.9
1073.5 3.3 39.6 3.6 1033.9 3.3 59.1 3.8 199.1 2.3 46.7 117.3 31.8 24.2 0.6 65.6 2.5 191.7 8.6 127.3 3.3 193.6 1.8 53 1.5 11.7 -0.2 108.6 1.2
1085.4 3.7 40 4.3 1045.3 3.7 60 5 200.9 3.1 47.2 117.9 32.2 24.2 0.1 66.2 2.9 196.4 8.8 128.1 3 195.3 2.3 53.2 1.5 11.7 0.1 109.3 1.6
1096.9 4 40.4 4.4 1056.5 4 61 5.8 202.7 3.5 47.8 118.4 32.7 24.2 0.1 67 3.5 200.6 8.9 128.9 2.5 196.8 2.9 53.5 1.8 11.8 0.5 110.1 2.1
1107.3 4.2 40.8 4.3 1066.4 4.2 62.2 6.5 204.5 3.5 48.5 119.1 33.2 24.2 0.3 67.5 3.7 203.7 8.7 129.5 2.3 198.3 3.3 53.8 1.9 11.8 0.7 110.9 2.5
86034 86653.7 87622.9 88754.5 89845.6 91119.2 92336.7 93560.2 2075.3 2078.7 2084.1 2090.4 2097.7 2105.8 2116.7 2127.8 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1097.5 1100.7 1104.4 1108.8 1113.9 1119.4 1124.9 1131.2 -0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.9 2 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.1 9.8 9.4 12075 13694 15623 17567 19046 20327 21751 23003 9754 11390 13307 14928 16152 17134 18244 19176 2321 2304 2316 2640 2894 3193 3507 3826
94757 2139.4 2 1137.6 2.1 9.1 23716 19614 4102
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1024 -4.6 39.2 -7.6 984.8 -4.4 61.2 -13.8 192.5 -3.8 45.7 114.4 31.3 24.9 -4.6 65.1 -2.7 166 -6.7 117.8 0 187.8 -6.1 51.1 -3.3 11.7 -0.6 106.8 0.7
1021.1 -3.7 39 -7.8 982.1 -3.6 60.1 -11.7 192.6 -1.8 45.4 114.5 30.6 24.4 -5.6 64.6 -3.5 165.3 -4.5 118.1 -0.3 187.4 -5.6 51 -2.9 11.7 -0.8 106.9 -0.1
1022.5 -1.9 38.4 -7.4 984.1 -1.6 58.9 -9.6 193.3 -0.8 45.1 114.4 30.4 23.8 -6.5 64.4 -3.1 166.6 -0.7 119 0.2 187.7 -2.2 51.4 1 12 1.4 106.9 -0.4
1025.6 -0.4 38 -4.7 987.6 -0.3 57.6 -8.5 193.9 0.6 44.9 114.7 30.3 23.3 -8 64.2 -2.3 167.3 -0.4 120.4 2.6 189.3 0.2 51.6 1.2 13.1 12.1 107 0.3
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
84137.3 84402.3 84838.8 85086.9 85447.1 2071.8 2072.9 2074.5 2073.4 2073.6 0.5 0.2 0 0.1 0.1 1104.6 1100.2 1097.3 1096.5 1096.5 -1.5 -2.3 -2 -1.3 -0.7 10.9 11.3 11.4 11.2 11.3 6333 7683 8685 9540 10690 4688 5726 6670 7532 8491 1645 1957 2015 2008 2199
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
67
O r l a n d o – K i s s immee
Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL October 2009 Forecast 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
48.3 4.3 30.6 17.7
51.1 5.8 32.5 18.7
56 9.6 35.6 20.4
61.6 9.9 39.2 22.4
67.1 8.9 42.2 24.9
70 4.4 43.9 26.2
71.6 2.2 44.1 27.5
70.3 -1.8 42.9 27.4
72.3 2.9 43.8 28.5
76 5.1 45.6 30.4
81.2 6.8 48.4 32.7
86.5 6.6 51.7 34.8
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
46.7 2.8
48.4 3.7
51.7 6.8
55.2 6.8
58.5 6
59.5 1.7
58.9 -1.1
62.6 6.3
65.1 4.1
67.2 3.2
70.6 5
74.1 5
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
27.4 26.5
28.2 26.7
29.9 27.6
31.7 28.4
33.6 29.3
34.5 29.3
34.8 28.6
33.9 30.2
34.9 31.4
36.4 32.2
38.2 33.3
39.9 34.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
33.5 4.2
34.8 3.9
36.3 4.3
37.8 4.1
39.2 3.8
39.9 1.8
40.7 2
41.5 2
42.4 2.2
43.3 2
44.2 2.2
45.5 2.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
908.4 -1
928.1 2.2
976.5 5.2
1032.4 5.7
1071.3 3.8
1094.8 2.2
1078.4 -1.5
1029.4 -4.6
1027.7 -0.2
1050.7 2.2
1090.8 3.8
1132.8 3.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
45.4 -7.5
43.2 -4.9
44.1 2.2
45.3 2.7
44.5 -1.9
44.1 -0.8
42.7 -3.1
39.9 -6.6
38.1 -4.4
38.6 1.3
40.2 4.2
41.8 3.9
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
863 -0.6
884.9 2.5
932.4 5.4
987.1 5.9
1026.8 4
1050.7 2.3
1035.7 -1.4
989.5 -4.5
989.5 0
1012 2.3
1050.5 3.8
1091 3.9
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
61.4 1.8
66 7.4
74.2 12.5
84.4 13.7
91.2 8
85.4 -6.4
73 -14.5
62.3 -14.6
57.6 -7.6
57.5 -0.1
60.5 5.3
65.6 8.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
171.6 -3.7
173.4 1
181.7 4.8
192.8 6.1
198.8 3.1
204 2.6
201.1 -1.4
193.2 -3.9
194.1 0.5
195.7 0.8
201.8 3.1
208.8 3.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
39.6 104.8 27.3
40 107.4 25.9
42 113.5 26.2
44.7 120.1 28
46.2 122.4 30.3
47.2 123.7 33
46.7 121.3 33.1
45.7 115.1 31.6
44.9 115.1 30.2
45.4 116.1 30.8
47.6 118.2 32.5
49.9 121.4 34.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
22.5 -2
23.1 2.5
23.8 3.1
24.7 3.9
25.8 4.5
26.8 3.7
26.2 -2.1
25 -4.6
23.5 -6
24.1 2.5
24.2 0.3
24.6 1.5
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
54.7 1
57.4 4.8
59.5 3.7
63.7 7.1
67 5.2
67.8 1.1
67 -1.1
65.5 -2.4
64.1 -2.1
64.5 0.7
66.6 3.1
68.5 2.9
152.3 -2.9
152.2 -0.1
162.4 6.7
175.4 8
182.1 3.9
187 2.6
179.9 -3.8
166.7 -7.3
168.8 1.2
182.2 7.9
198.1 8.7
211.8 6.9
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
89.4 2.7
93.6 4.7
97.3 4
102.2 5
107.5 5.2
112.7 4.8
117.3 4.1
118 0.6
121 2.5
125 3.3
128.5 2.8
131.4 2.3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
165 -3.3
169.9 3
179.4 5.6
183.6 2.4
186.9 1.8
193.6 3.6
200.2 3.4
189 -5.6
189.4 0.2
191.1 0.8
196 2.6
201 2.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
45.4 7
45.7 0.7
47.5 4
49.9 4.9
53.4 7.1
55.8 4.5
53 -5
51 -3.8
51.7 1.4
52.5 1.5
53.4 1.7
54.3 1.8
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
10.4 1.2
11.1 6.9
11.2 1.2
11.8 5.2
11.4 -3.5
11.5 0.4
11.7 2.1
11.7 0
12.3 4.7
11.7 -4.4
11.7 0.2
11.8 0.8
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
90.2 5.8
92.6 2.6
95.4 3
98.7 3.5
102.7 4.1
106.2 3.4
106.2 0
106.9 0.7
107 0.1
107.7 0.7
109.7 1.8
113.2 3.2
66572.7
70640.2
75048.2
81621.8
85391
86501.6
86372.1
83938.2
85351.7
88219.2
92943.3
97484.8
1761.1 2.8
1810.1 2.8
1873.1 3.5
1941.9 3.7
1996.8 2.8
2031.3 1.7
2057.9 1.3
2072.7 0.7
2074.2 0.1
2087.7 0.7
2122.4 1.7
2170.2 2.3
918 0.9
934 1.7
964 3.2
1007.7 4.5
1048.9 4.1
1091.6 4.1
1119.9 2.6
1108.8 -1
1097 -1.1
1106.9 0.9
1128.3 1.9
1154.4 2.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
68
5.6
5.1
4.4
3.5
3.1
3.8
5.9
10.7
11.3
10.8
9.6
8.6
25182 17509 7673
27607 22318 5289
32400 26196 6204
33906 26872 7034
30304 24310 5994
18000 12536 5464
10572 5736 4837
6245 4501 1743
10248 8112 2136
16483 13944 2538
22199 18542 3657
24675 20246 4429
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e
P r o fi l e s The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port. Quick Facts:
• Population estimate of 536,161 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 259,913 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 5.1% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 13,163 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• Harris Corporation – 6,420 employees
Out l o o k Summa r Y The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is expected to achieve modest growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow on average 4.3 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 33.6 percent annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.4 percent, while average annual wage levels should be at 47.7, one of the highest in the state. Population growth is expected to be at an average of 0.8 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 15,478.75 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to grow at an average rate of 0.9 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 10.6 percent. Education and Health Services is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 2.2 percent growth annually. Manufacturing follows with an average growth rate of 1.3 percent. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual declining rate of -0.5 percent.
M et r o Ne w s Summa r ie s A ‘sad day’ for Brevard Chrysler dealers
• Health First, Inc. – 6,220 employees
• A bankruptcy judge approved the termination of 789 Chrysler dealerships, representing a 25% drop in the company’s dealership base.
• Northrop Grumman Corporation – 2,000 employees
• Dealerships across the Space Coast, like Sunshine Dodge, have stockpiles of unsold inventory and feel that federal stimulus money would be just compensation.
• United Space Alliance – 6,380 employees • Wuesthoff Health Systems – 2,460 employees
• Space Gateway Support – 1,800 employees • Parrish Medical Center – 1,250 employees • Rockwell Collins, Inc. – 1,250 employees • Sea Ray Boats, Inc. – 1,150 employees • Mercedes Homes – 1,030 employees
Source: Economic Development Commission of Florida’s Space Coast
• Several Florida legislators have addressed Steven Rattner, the head of president Obama’s efforts to bail out the auto industry, demanding transparency in the termination of auto franchises while pleading that stimulating the auto industry should not come at the expense of local dealerships.
Source: Florida Today, June 10, 2009
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
69
P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e
$5 million in stimulus cash available to Brevard • If Brevard County officials can sort through the paperwork, more than $5 million of federal economic stimulus money is available to Brevard County for buying foreclosed property. • The city plans to use the $5.2 million to acquire the Bayfront Community Redevelopment area in northeast Palm Bay. • Melbourne’s director of housing and development Melinda Thomas is hopeful that the city will be entitled to the money in the next two months.
Source: Florida Today, June 11, 2009
Funding loss jeopardizes Brevard PAL leagues • The contract of state funding for Melbourne, Palm Bay, and Satellite Beach PAL youth programs was cut off suddenly with several months left in the contract. • Former Florida Rep. Mitch Needelman, who secured the funding for the programs last year, states the Department of Juvenile Justice cut the funds, not the Legislature. • The budget freeze threatens to all but eliminate the staff of the PAL youth programs, thereby greatly restricting their ability to positively impact Brevard.
Source: Florida Today, July 6, 2009
Officials focus on job loss • A meeting of representatives from seven central Florida counties was focused on managing the expected job losses of 3,500 NASA employees when the shuttle is retired in 2010. • The group of roughly 90 will be brainstorming on how to consolidate the relocation of employees losing their jobs at Kennedy Space Center to other firms in the east central Florida region.
70
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
• This meeting will focus on smoothing the transition of the displaced NASA employees into jobs in digital media, aeronautics, life sciences, and other technical science positions.
Source: Florida Today, July 9, 2009
Brevard school board host budget hearing • The Brevard school board met to discuss a budget decrease of 4.4% from last year; a change that resulted from diminished enrollment and state funding and could mean the elimination of 85 teaching positions. • A lower than expected county tax roll coupled with a projected 2.2% drop in enrollment has lead to a 6.58% decrease in base student allocation. • Brevard became the first school board to unanimously approve a property tax increase aimed at saving teacher jobs and raising money for the district.
Source: Florida Today, July 30, 2009
P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.5
1
1.5
(percent)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate
(Millions 2000 $)
17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 10000.0
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Palm Bay Payroll Employment
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income
(Thousands)
220.0
2.5
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product
Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 14.0%
2
(percent change year ago)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness
71
P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e
Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL* October 2009 Forecast 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
19 -1.7 9.1 9.9 17.3 10 35.3 32.1 45.2 1.7
19.1 -0.2 9.1 9.9 17.3 10 35.4 32.1 45.5 1.8
19.2 1.2 9.2 10 17.4 11.1 35.7 32.3 45.8 2.1
19.4 1.5 9.2 10.1 17.5 -0.2 36 32.5 46 2.2
19.6 2.9 9.3 10.3 17.6 1.7 36.3 32.6 46.3 2.3
19.7 3.5 9.3 10.4 17.7 2.1 36.5 32.7 46.5 2.2
19.9 3.7 9.4 10.5 17.8 2 36.9 32.8 46.7 2
20.2 4 9.5 10.7 17.9 2.1 37.2 33 46.9 2
20.5 4.5 9.5 10.9 18 2.6 37.7 33.2 47.2 1.9
20.7 5.1 9.6 11.1 18.2 3.1 38.1 33.5 47.4 2
21 5.4 9.7 11.3 18.4 3.4 38.5 33.7 47.7 2.1
21.3 5.7 9.8 11.5 18.6 3.9 38.9 33.9 48 2.2
21.6 5.6 9.9 11.6 18.7 3.9 39.3 34.2 48.3 2.4
21.8 5.3 10.1 11.8 18.9 3.7 39.7 34.3 48.6 2.6
197.6 -0.6 21 -4.4 176.6 -0.1 10.7 -7.9 34.4 0.9 5.6 25.2 3.1 2.7 -4.9 7.3 -1.2 33 -2.4 31.7 4.2 20.2 0.2 8.3 2.8 6.1 2.7 22.2 -0.8
197.7 -0.2 21.2 -2 176.5 0 10.7 -6 34.4 0.9 5.6 25.3 3.1 2.7 -1.7 7.3 -1.2 33.1 -2.3 31.9 4.2 20.1 0.1 8.3 2.6 5.9 -0.5 22.2 -0.7
198 0.1 21.2 -0.3 176.8 0.1 10.7 -4.2 34.3 0.4 5.6 25.3 3.1 2.8 2 7.3 -0.7 33.3 -1.6 32 3.5 20 0 8.3 2.2 5.9 -1.4 22.2 -0.4
198.4 0.3 21.3 1.5 177.1 0.1 10.7 -1.5 34.2 -0.1 5.7 25.2 3.2 2.8 4.6 7.3 -0.2 33.3 0 32.3 3 20.1 -0.4 8.3 1.5 5.9 -9.1 22.2 -0.2
199.2 0.8 21.6 2.7 177.6 0.6 10.8 0.9 34.3 -0.4 5.8 25.1 3.2 2.8 4.6 7.3 0.6 33.4 1.1 32.5 2.5 20.1 -0.7 8.3 0.8 5.9 -3.9 22.2 0
199.8 1.1 21.8 3.3 178 0.8 10.9 2 34.4 0.3 5.9 25.2 3.3 2.8 2.9 7.4 1.4 33.3 0.5 32.6 2.4 20.1 0 8.3 0.7 5.9 -1.3 22.3 0.2
200.5 1.3 22.1 4.3 178.4 0.9 11 3.3 34.6 0.9 5.9 25.3 3.3 2.8 1.3 7.4 1.5 33.2 -0.2 32.6 2 20.2 0.7 8.3 0.2 5.9 -1 22.3 0.5
201.7 1.7 22.4 4.8 179.4 1.3 11.2 4.3 34.8 1.8 6 25.4 3.4 2.8 0.5 7.4 1.8 33.4 0.5 32.8 1.5 20.3 1.1 8.3 0 5.9 -0.6 22.4 1
203 1.9 22.6 4.8 180.4 1.6 11.3 5 35.1 2.3 6 25.5 3.4 2.8 0.3 7.5 2.5 33.7 1 32.9 1.1 20.4 1.5 8.3 0 5.9 -0.2 22.5 1.4
204.1 2.1 22.8 4.5 181.3 1.8 11.5 5.3 35.3 2.4 6.1 25.5 3.5 2.8 0.4 7.6 2.8 33.9 1.8 32.9 0.9 20.4 1.7 8.3 0.1 5.9 0.1 22.7 1.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
198.7 -3.5 22 -5.9 176.7 -3.2 11.6 -8.6 34.1 -3 5.7 25.1 3.1 2.8 -2 7.4 -9.3 33.8 -3.1 30.4 0.3 20.2 -5.9 8 -1.5 6 -3.6 22.4 -1
198.1 -2.4 21.6 -6.9 176.5 -1.8 11.4 -8.1 34 -1.2 5.7 25 3.1 2.8 -1.5 7.3 -5.4 33.9 -0.4 30.6 0.3 20.1 -4 8.1 -0.4 6 -1.7 22.4 -1.4
197.8 -1.7 21.3 -6.6 176.6 -1 11.2 -9 34.2 -0.2 5.7 25 3.1 2.7 -5.4 7.3 -1.9 33.8 0 30.9 1.1 20 -2.4 8.1 1.7 6 -0.9 22.3 -1.5
197.9 -0.9 21 -6.6 176.8 -0.2 10.9 -8.6 34.3 0.6 5.7 25.1 3.1 2.7 -6.7 7.3 -1.2 33.3 -1.8 31.3 3.6 20.2 -0.6 8.2 2.1 6.5 8 22.3 -1
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
14674.3 14735.9 14784.8 14792.5 14827.8 14888.1 14950.6 15064.1 15210.9 538.1 538.4 538.8 539 539.5 540.1 540.8 541.8 542.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 265.9 265.7 265.7 266.2 266.7 267.1 267.7 268.2 268.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 11.9 12.2 12.4 11.8 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.2 1498 1684 1906 2041 2116 2381 2808 3339 3813 1401 1622 1806 1963 2087 2355 2745 3214 3612 98 62 100 79 30 26 63 125 200
*Quarterly at an annual rate
72
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
15338 15481.3 15626.5 15780.4 15930.7 544.3 545.7 547.1 548.6 550.4 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.1 269.4 270.3 271.1 271.9 272.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 10.9 10.6 10.3 9.9 9.6 4212 4515 4898 5331 5610 3928 4136 4435 4695 4818 284 378 464 636 792
P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL October 2009 Forecast 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
13.9 3.9 6.9 7
14.6 5.3 7.4 7.2
15.8 8.2 8.1 7.7
17 7.5 8.7 8.3
18.2 7.5 9.2 9.1
18.8 3.3 9.2 9.6
19.3 2.2 9.3 10
19 -1.2 9.1 9.9
19.5 2.3 9.3 10.2
20.3 4.3 9.5 10.8
21.4 5.5 9.9 11.5
22.5 5 10.4 12.1
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
13.4 2.5
13.8 3.2
14.6 5.4
15.2 4.5
15.9 4.6
16 0.7
15.8 -1.1
16.9 7
17.5 3.5
18 2.4
18.6 3.7
19.3 3.4
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
28 27
28.9 27.4
30.5 28.2
32.2 28.9
34.3 29.9
35.2 29.9
35.9 29.5
35.4 31.5
36.1 32.5
37.5 33.1
39.1 34
40.5 34.7
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
35 3.4
36.7 4.7
38.4 4.8
40 4.2
41.5 3.6
42.6 2.6
44 3.4
45.1 2.5
46.1 2.2
47.1 2
48.2 2.3
49.5 2.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
193.8 -0.4
197.9 2.1
206.6 4.4
213.8 3.5
217.4 1.7
213.8 -1.7
207.5 -3
199.4 -3.9
197.7 -0.8
198.9 0.6
202.3 1.7
206.8 2.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
22.9 -3.9
22.8 -0.5
23.6 3.8
23.9 1.2
24.6 2.7
24.1 -1.8
23.7 -1.8
22.2 -6.2
21.1 -5
21.5 1.8
22.5 4.6
23.4 3.9
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
170.9 0.1
175.1 2.4
183 4.5
189.8 3.7
192.9 1.6
189.7 -1.6
183.8 -3.1
177.2 -3.6
176.6 -0.3
177.4 0.4
179.9 1.4
183.4 2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
12.7 -3.1
13 2.3
14.8 13.6
17.2 16.2
18.1 5
15.4 -15
13.1 -14.9
11.8 -9.8
10.9 -7.9
10.8 -0.7
11.3 4.5
12 6.8
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
34.7 -0.1
34.2 -1.6
35.5 3.7
37.1 4.5
37.4 1
36.9 -1.5
35.5 -3.7
34.1 -3.9
34.3 0.6
34.3 0
34.9 1.9
35.8 2.4
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
4.8 26.6 3.3
4.6 26.3 3.3
4.7 27.2 3.6
5.2 28 3.8
5.5 28.3 3.6
5.6 28 3.3
5.7 26.8 3.1
5.7 25.2 3.1
5.7 25.1 3.1
5.7 25.2 3.2
6 25.4 3.4
6.3 25.9 3.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8 -10.8
2.8 0
2.8 -0.9
2.9 6
2.9 0.1
2.9 -2.6
2.8 -0.3
2.8 -0.3
2.7 -4.7
2.8 3.5
2.8 0.6
2.8 1.1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.3 3.4
7.3 0.7
7.8 5.8
8.4 7.8
8.6 2.4
8.6 0.3
8.2 -5.2
7.4 -9.5
7.3 -1.3
7.3 0.3
7.5 2.2
7.6 2.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
33.4 -2.2
34.7 4.1
37.1 6.8
38.7 4.5
38.4 -1
36.9 -3.9
35 -5.2
33.9 -3.1
33.3 -1.6
33.3 0
33.6 0.8
34.3 2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
25.3 3.5
26.7 5.7
26.8 0.3
27.3 1.8
28.2 3.1
29.3 4
30.5 4.3
30.5 -0.2
31.5 3.3
32.4 2.9
32.8 1.4
33.1 1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
19.9 0.1
20.2 1.7
21.1 4.4
21.8 3.3
22.5 3.3
22.9 1.5
21.7 -5
20.3 -6.7
20.1 -0.7
20.1 -0.3
20.3 1.2
20.5 0.9
7.6 1
8.2 8.4
8.4 1.6
8.1 -2.8
8.1 -0.7
8 -1
8.1 1.2
8 -0.8
8.2 2.3
8.3 1.3
8.3 0.1
8.3 0
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
5.7 -1.8
5.7 1.2
5.9 3.9
6.1 1.8
6.2 1.7
6.2 0.5
6.2 0
6 -3.1
6.1 2.3
5.9 -4
5.9 -0.4
5.9 0
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
21.6 2.9
22.1 2.6
22.9 3.3
22.2 -2.8
22.6 1.7
22.8 1.1
22.8 -0.3
22.5 -1.3
22.2 -1
22.2 -0.1
22.5 1.2
23.1 2.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
12105.3
12831.3
13907.9
14918.6
15348
15069
14921
14612.5
14823.3
15140.9
15704.7
16246.1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
495.4 1.7
504.9 1.9
517 2.4
526.3 1.8
531.4 1
535 0.7
536.7 0.3
538 0.2
539.3 0.2
542.5 0.6
547.9 1
555.1 1.3
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
238.2 1.1
242 1.6
247.7 2.4
256.2 3.4
261.8 2.2
263.9 0.8
267.8 1.5
266.4 -0.5
266.4 0
268.6 0.8
271.5 1.1
275.5 1.5
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5.7
5.2
4.4
3.6
3.3
4.3
6.5
11.2
12
11.3
10.1
9
6591 5091 1500
6115 5578 537
8212 6313 1899
8487 7206 1281
5346 4370 977
2815 2209 606
1789 1292 496
1174 1176 -2
2111 2053 58
3543 3375 168
5088 4521 568
5901 4953 948
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
73
P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t
P r o fi l e s The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.” Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 453,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 306,407 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 147,044 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 208,802 in January 2008 for the MSA (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.2% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,857 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Local Government – 15,790 employees • Federal Government – 7,403 employees • State Government – 5,970 employees • Sacred Heart Health System – 3,500 employees • Baptist Health Care – 3,470 employees • University of West Florida – 2,267 employees • Solutia, Inc. – 1,800 employees • Lakeview – 1,500 employees • Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees • West Florida Hospital – 1,200 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce
74
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
Out l o o k Summa r Y The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is expected to achieve low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas. Personal income is expected to grow 3.6 percent each year on average, the lowest in the state. The per capita income level is expected to be at 29.8. The average annual wage growth rate should be 2.0 percent while the average annual wage level is expected to be 40.2. Population growth will be at a rate of 0.3 percent, the second lowest in the state, and the Gross Metro Product will see a level of 10,952.40 (Mill). Employment is expected to grow 0.5 percent each year, one of the lowest growth rates in the state. Unemployment will be at an average rate of 9.8 percent. Education and Health Services will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with a 1.8 percent average annual growth rate, followed by Trade, Transportation, and Utilities at 1.2 percent. The Information and Federal Government sectors are expected to see negative growth, with average annual growth rates of -0.5 percent and -1.0 percent, respectively.
M et r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Drilling in the Gulf will threaten Florida coastlines • The Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee approved opening the Gulf of Mexico to oil and gas drilling within 10 miles of Pensacola’s coast. • There are fears that this drilling could threaten the beaches with pollution and oil spills, adversely affect the multi-billion dollar tourism and fishing industries, and hamper military flight training. Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 11, 2009
P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t
Grounds broken on new flight academy
Future of Amtrak in Pensacola uncertain
• The Flight Academy will be a 5-day educational camp for students (grades 7-12) that uses a Naval-aviation themed environment to teach science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.
• A recent Amtrak report has raised hopes that the restoration of rail service through Pensacola is back underway. However, officials commented that even under the best circumstances, passenger service is still 3 to 4 years out.
• This 55,000-square-foot addition to the National Naval Aviation Museum will be a $26.5-million construction project and is scheduled to open May 8, 2011.
• Amtrak needs the time to build new equipment and make track improvements.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 17, 2009 Escambia fuel tax fails • County commissioners voted against a threecent-per-gallon tax increase on fuel.
• Amtrak lines, known as the Sunset Limited, were formerly in place until Hurricane Katrina destroyed several railroad bridges running through Mississippi. Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 3, 2009
• The tax was intended to help fund mass transit. • Currently, the county funds $3 million of Escambia County Area Transit’s $7.6 million operating budget. Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 19, 2009 Chamber plan gets key nod • The Chamber’s new plan puts a lot of the responsibility of economic development in the hands of the private sector. • The plan creates a new economic development foundation called the Greater Pensacola Partnership. • The Chamber is asking the city and county for $4 million per year to offer as incentive money to attract new businesses and an additional $400,000 and $1 million for operating costs from the public and private sectors respectively. Source: Pensacola News Journal, July 2, 2009
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
75
P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate (percent)
0.4
0.6
1.4
1.6
(Millions 2000 $)
10.0%
11000.0
8.0%
10500.0
6.0%
10000.0 9500.0
4.0%
9000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate
8500.0
Pensacola Payroll Employment 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product
Pensacola Real Personal Income
(Thousands)
76
1.2
12000.0 11500.0
150.0
1
Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product
12.0%
2.0%
0.8
(percent change year ago)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income
P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t
Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL* October 2009 Forecast 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
14.3 -2.2 6.7 7.6 13 9.5 31.4 28.6 38.4 1.2
14.3 -0.9 6.7 7.6 13 9.3 31.5 28.6 38.6 1.5
14.4 0.4 6.7 7.6 13 10.3 31.7 28.7 38.9 1.8
14.5 1 6.8 7.7 13.1 -0.8 32 28.9 39 1.8
14.6 2.4 6.8 7.8 13.1 1.2 32.3 29 39.2 1.9
14.7 2.9 6.8 7.9 13.2 1.5 32.5 29.1 39.3 1.8
14.8 3 6.8 8 13.2 1.3 32.8 29.2 39.5 1.6
15 3.2 6.9 8.1 13.3 1.3 33.1 29.3 39.6 1.6
15.2 3.7 6.9 8.2 13.4 1.8 33.5 29.5 39.8 1.5
15.3 4.2 7 8.4 13.5 2.3 33.8 29.7 39.9 1.6
15.5 4.6 7 8.5 13.6 2.6 34.1 29.8 40.2 1.7
15.7 4.8 7.1 8.6 13.7 3 34.5 30.1 40.4 1.8
15.9 4.7 7.1 8.7 13.8 3.1 34.8 30.2 40.6 2
16 4.6 7.2 8.8 13.9 3 35.1 30.4 40.8 2.2
160.7 -0.7 5.5 -5 155.2 -0.5 10.1 -8.5 32.8 0.5 6 21.4 4.7 3 -5.7 8.5 -1.8 18.8 -3.1 29.2 4.1 17.1 -0.7 7.3 1.4 6.5 2 21.7 -1.4
160.5 -0.4 5.5 -3.1 154.9 -0.3 10.1 -6.5 32.7 0.5 5.9 21.4 4.7 3.1 -2.4 8.5 -1.8 18.8 -2.7 29.3 4.1 17.1 -0.4 7.3 1.3 6.3 -0.9 21.7 -1.3
160.5 -0.3 5.5 -1.2 155 -0.2 10.1 -4.7 32.7 0.1 5.9 21.4 4.7 3.1 1.7 8.5 -1.3 18.9 -2.2 29.4 3.3 17 -0.3 7.3 0.9 6.3 -1.9 21.6 -1
160.7 -0.2 5.5 0.4 155.2 -0.2 10.1 -2 32.6 -0.3 6 21.3 4.8 3.1 4 8.5 -0.7 18.9 -0.4 29.6 2.8 17.1 -0.3 7.3 0.5 6.3 -9.4 21.6 -0.8
161.1 0.3 5.6 1.5 155.5 0.2 10.2 0.4 32.7 -0.3 6 21.3 4.8 3.1 3.6 8.5 0.1 19 0.8 29.8 2.3 17 -0.6 7.3 0.1 6.3 -4.1 21.6 -0.6
161.5 0.6 5.6 2.1 155.8 0.6 10.3 1.5 32.9 0.4 6.1 21.3 4.9 3.1 1.8 8.6 0.9 18.9 0.1 29.9 2.1 17.1 0 7.3 0.1 6.2 -1.5 21.6 -0.4
161.8 0.8 5.7 3 156.1 0.7 10.4 2.8 33 1.1 6.1 21.4 5 3.1 0.2 8.6 1 18.9 -0.5 29.9 1.6 17.1 0.6 7.3 -0.1 6.2 -1.2 21.6 -0.1
162.5 1.1 5.7 3.6 156.8 1 10.5 3.8 33.2 1.8 6.2 21.5 5 3.1 -0.3 8.6 1.4 19 0.2 30 1.1 17.2 0.8 7.3 -0.3 6.2 -0.8 21.7 0.3
163.3 1.4 5.8 3.6 157.6 1.3 10.6 4.3 33.4 2.3 6.2 21.5 5.1 3.1 -0.2 8.7 2.1 19.1 0.8 30 0.6 17.3 1.2 7.3 0 6.2 -0.5 21.8 0.7
164 1.6 5.8 3.4 158.2 1.5 10.7 4.6 33.6 2.3 6.3 21.6 5.2 3.1 -0.2 8.8 2.5 19.2 1.8 30 0.4 17.3 1.4 7.3 0.1 6.2 -0.2 21.9 1.2
10632 10702.3 10790.7 10864.7 10950.3 11040.1 11133.7 452.3 452.5 452.9 453.5 454.1 455 455.9 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 209.5 209.6 209.8 210 210.5 211 211.4 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.8 9.5 9.1 1909 2138 2335 2481 2575 2711 2790 1821 2049 2234 2370 2452 2579 2646 89 89 101 110 123 132 144
11225 456.9 0.8 212 0.9 8.9 2860 2705 155
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
161.7 -3 5.8 -11.7 155.9 -2.6 11.1 -11.6 32.6 0.8 6.1 21.2 4.8 3.2 -8.2 8.7 -2.4 19.4 -6.7 28 0.3 17.3 -1.1 7.2 -3.2 6.4 -1.2 22 -3
161.1 -2.3 5.7 -8.9 155.4 -2 10.8 -10 32.6 2 6 21.2 4.7 3.1 -6.5 8.6 -3.2 19.4 -4.2 28.2 0.2 17.1 -1.6 7.2 -2.2 6.4 -1.5 22 -3.4
160.9 -1.5 5.6 -8.3 155.3 -1.3 10.6 -9.2 32.7 0.7 6 21.2 4.7 3.1 -6.4 8.6 -3 19.4 -0.4 28.5 1.1 17.1 -2.5 7.2 0.7 6.4 -1.4 21.9 -2
161.1 -0.9 5.5 -7.6 155.6 -0.6 10.3 -9.2 32.7 0.2 6 21.3 4.7 3 -7.5 8.6 -1.8 19 -2.4 28.8 3.4 17.1 -1.6 7.3 0.8 6.9 6.8 21.8 -1.5
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
10496.1 10521.6 10554.5 10552.8 10564.6 10595.2 454 453.9 453.7 453.2 452.7 452.3 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 210.5 209.9 209.5 209.4 209.3 209.3 0.2 -0.5 -1.5 -1 -0.6 -0.3 10.8 11 11.1 11 11 11 1242 1306 1400 1486 1566 1707 1181 1238 1329 1414 1481 1617 62 67 71 73 85 90
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
77
P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t
Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL October 2009 Forecast 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
10.5 3.2 5.1 5.4
10.9 4.1 5.4 5.6
11.7 7.4 5.8 6
12.6 7 6.1 6.4
13.6 8.4 6.6 7
14.2 4 6.8 7.4
14.5 2.6 6.8 7.7
14.3 -1.4 6.7 7.6
14.6 1.7 6.8 7.8
15.1 3.6 6.9 8.2
15.8 4.7 7.1 8.7
16.5 4.4 7.4 9.1
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
10.1 1.8
10.3 2.1
10.8 4.7
11.3 4
11.9 5.4
12 1.4
11.9 -0.7
12.7 6.7
13.1 2.9
13.3 1.7
13.7 2.9
14.1 2.8
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
24.5 23.7
25.1 23.8
26.6 24.6
28.2 25.3
30.2 26.3
31.3 26.6
32 26.4
31.5 28.1
32.1 28.9
33.3 29.4
34.6 30.1
35.8 30.7
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
29.8 1
30.7 3.1
32.5 5.9
33.7 3.7
35.4 5
36.2 2.2
37.7 4.3
38.4 1.8
39.1 1.8
39.7 1.6
40.5 1.9
41.5 2.5
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
155.4 -0.3
159.3 2.5
163.7 2.8
169.5 3.5
173.9 2.6
174 0.1
167.4 -3.8
162.2 -3.1
160.8 -0.9
160.9 0.1
162.9 1.2
165.7 1.7
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
7.3 -7.1
7.4 1.1
7.3 -1.3
7.5 3.1
7.4 -1.4
7 -5.2
6.5 -7.3
5.9 -10.1
5.5 -6.1
5.6 0.7
5.7 3.4
5.9 2.9
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
148.1 0.1
151.9 2.5
156.4 3
161.9 3.6
166.5 2.8
167 0.3
160.9 -3.6
156.3 -2.9
155.3 -0.7
155.4 0.1
157.2 1.1
159.8 1.7
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
11.1 -13.4
10.8 -2.8
11.6 7.8
13.9 19.4
15.4 10.4
14.8 -3.9
12.8 -13.4
11.2 -12.3
10.3 -8.4
10.1 -1.2
10.5 3.9
11.2 6
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
29.9 0.2
30.2 1
31.2 3.1
33.1 6.1
33 -0.2
33.8 2.5
32.5 -3.9
32.6 0.1
32.7 0.5
32.7 0
33.3 1.9
34.1 2.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.3 20.5 4.1
5.3 20.8 4.1
5.6 21.1 4.5
6.2 21.9 5
6.2 21.8 5
6.7 22.2 4.9
6.2 21.5 4.9
6.1 21.3 4.8
6 21.3 4.7
6 21.3 4.8
6.2 21.5 5.1
6.5 21.8 5.3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
4.2 13.6
4.1 -2
3.9 -4.5
3.7 -4.7
3.8 0.7
3.6 -5.7
3.5 -2.5
3.2 -7.2
3 -5.5
3.1 2.8
3.1 -0.1
3.1 0.8
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.5 -6
6.8 4.6
7.5 9.8
8.2 9.9
8.9 8.4
9.2 3.1
8.9 -3.3
8.7 -1.8
8.5 -2.1
8.5 -0.2
8.7 1.7
8.8 1.8
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
19.2 5.4
20.1 4.6
21.6 7.2
23.1 7.1
23.2 0.5
22.3 -4.2
20.9 -6.1
19.4 -6.9
19 -2.2
18.9 -0.4
19 0.6
19.4 2.1
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
25.3 4.6
26.8 6.2
26.7 -0.4
26 -2.9
27.5 5.9
28.7 4.3
28.1 -2
28.1 -0.1
28.9 3.2
29.7 2.6
30 0.9
30.1 0.5
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
15.7 -0.2
16.6 6.1
17.4 4.7
17.3 -0.9
17.7 2.5
17.7 0
17.6 -0.2
17.3 -1.7
17.1 -1.3
17.1 -0.3
17.2 1
17.3 0.7
7.7 2.9
7.9 2.6
7.9 0.9
7.8 -1.6
7.8 0
7.8 -0.4
7.5 -3.8
7.2 -3.8
7.3 1.1
7.3 0.4
7.3 -0.1
7.3 0.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
6.9 -6.2
6.9 -0.5
6.7 -2.2
6.7 -0.5
6.7 0.4
6.6 -2.5
6.5 -0.7
6.4 -1.2
6.6 1.6
6.3 -4.4
6.2 -0.7
6.2 -0.3
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
21.6 -0.8
21.6 0
21.8 0.9
22.2 2
22.5 1.4
22.7 1.1
22.6 -0.5
22.1 -2.2
21.8 -1.5
21.6 -0.7
21.7 0.5
22.2 1.9
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
9321.6
9681.5
10254.7
10535.2
10943.6
10905.1
10707.3
10455.8
10566.8
10747.4
11087.3
11408.1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
428.3 1.7
434.2 1.4
440.3 1.4
445.4 1.2
450.4 1.1
451.6 0.3
453.2 0.3
454 0.2
453 -0.2
452.8 0
455.5 0.6
459.8 0.9
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
187.3 0.5
191.1 2.1
193.9 1.4
199.7 3
205 2.6
209 2
209.7 0.3
211.1 0.7
209.4 -0.8
209.7 0.2
211.2 0.7
213.6 1.1
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
78
5.3
4.8
4.6
3.8
3.1
3.8
5.8
10.2
11
10.5
9.3
8.3
3141 2955 186
4426 3558 868
4713 3629 1083
3764 3285 479
2765 2325 440
2469 1779 691
1412 1203 209
1176 1082 94
1540 1460 80
2216 2119 97
2734 2595 139
2944 2775 169
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
T a l l aha s s ee
P r o fi l e s The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University. Quick Facts:
• Metro population estimate of 352,319 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Gadsden County population estimate of 47,197 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 260,945 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Wakulla County population estimate of 29,726 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • An MSA civilian labor force of 186,760 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.3% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,153 unemployed people for the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• State Government (all departments) – 46,200 employees • Local Government (all departments) – 16,100 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 2,750 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 1,900 employees • Alltel Florida, Inc. – 1,000 employees • Tallahassee Leon County Civic Center - 672 employees • Quincy Corp. - 575 employees • Capital Regional Medical Center - 572 employees • Meridian Healthcare Group - 500 employees • Branch Banking & Trust Co. - 403 employees Sources: Florida Regional Economic Database and Tallahassee Economic Development Council
Out l o o k Summa r Y The Tallahassee MSA is expected to show modest growth in the economic indicators. The area should see personal income growth averaging 3.9 percent each year, while per capita income levels should average 30.4 each year. Average annual wage is expected to grow 2.4 percent, and the average annual wage level will be 40.9. Population growth will be at 0.6 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will see a level of 10,748.33 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to increase 0.4 percent each year, the lowest growth rate in the state. The unemployment rate, however, will average 7.7 percent, the second-lowest unemployment rate in the state. Education and Health Services will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 1.7 percent annual growth. Manufacturing and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities will follow with 0.9 percent average annual growth. The Federal Government and Information sectors will be the only sectors experiencing negative growth, with -0.5 percent and -0.8 percent growth rates, respectively.
M et r o Ne w s Summa r ie s FSU trustees approve three-year budget • The budget includes 200 faculty and staff layoffs, 25 of which are tenured faculty, and at least 17 programs eliminated in the next three years. • After the three-year budget has taken effect, FSU will be down 650 positions from what it had at beginning of the 2007-08 school year. • The budget reflects $83 million in cutbacks from the Legislature during the past three years. Almost every college will feel the impact of a significantly reduced budget. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, June 18, 2009
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
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T a l l aha s s ee
City of Tallahassee offering more than 1,500 employees buyouts • To help reduce a $7.5 million budget cut, the city is offering employees a cash payment equivalent to three months’ pay, up to $13,000, plus five months of paid insurance, before August 21. After August, the amount paid and benefits decrease. • The buyout applies to 1,567 city employees hired before Jan. 1 who earn within 10% of the maximum salaries for their job classifications. No police or firefighters have been targeted for the buyouts. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, July 7, 2009
Big Bend now better prepared for storms • Jefferson County completed a new Emergency Operations Center in Monticello. The new 2,400 square foot facility shows a significant improvement from the previous operations center. • Construction cost $1.2 million, with about $800,000 covered by federal and state grants. • Four other counties also have new facilities. Leon County continues with plans to construct a $40 to $50 million public-safety facility expected to open by 2012. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, July 13, 2009
Big Bend grows as Florida shrinks • The Tallahassee metro area’s population grew even as the number of Florida residents dropped by 58,000 in the last 12 months ending in April, according to the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. • Explanations include that some rural areas in the Panhandle were not hit by the housing market crash; additionally, the Tallahassee housing market appeals to full-time residents, as opposed to other parts of Florida, which attract temporary visitors. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 3, 2009 80
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
Utility rates to decrease Oct. 1 • A drop in the price of natural gas, which the city uses to produce electricity, will bring rates down 8%. • Since March, the average household electric bill has declined from $157.80 to the current level of $140.85. It is expected to drop to less than the state average of $129.50 next month. • Last year, the city budgeted $300 million for fuel prices; the amount budgeted this year is less than $200 million. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 14, 2009
T a l l aha s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.5
Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate (percent)
12.0%
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Tampa Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)
110000.0 100000.0
10.0% 90000.0
8.0% 6.0%
80000.0
4.0%
70000.0
2.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate
60000.0
Tallahassee Payroll Employment
Tallahassee Real Personal Income
(Thousands)
180.0 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Tallahassee Payroll Employment
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product
(percent change year ago)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness
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T a l l aha s s ee
Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL* October 2009 Forecast 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
11.6 -0.9 6.7 4.9 10.5 10.9 32.1 29.2 38.6 1.7
11.6 0.6 6.7 4.9 10.5 10.9 32.2 29.2 38.9 1.8
11.7 1.5 6.8 4.9 10.6 11.5 32.4 29.4 39.2 2.2
11.8 1.6 6.8 5 10.7 -0.1 32.7 29.5 39.4 2.2
11.9 2.8 6.8 5.1 10.7 1.6 33 29.6 39.6 2.4
12 3.2 6.8 5.1 10.7 1.8 33.2 29.7 39.7 2.3
12.1 3.4 6.9 5.2 10.8 1.6 33.5 29.9 40 2.1
12.2 3.5 6.9 5.3 10.8 1.6 33.8 30 40.1 2
12.4 3.8 6.9 5.4 10.9 1.9 34.1 30.1 40.4 2
12.5 4.3 7 5.5 11 2.3 34.5 30.3 40.6 2
12.7 4.6 7 5.6 11.1 2.6 34.9 30.5 40.8 2.1
12.8 4.9 7.1 5.7 11.2 3.1 35.2 30.7 41.1 2.3
13 4.9 7.2 5.8 11.3 3.3 35.5 30.8 41.3 2.4
13.1 4.8 7.3 5.8 11.3 3.2 35.8 31 41.6 2.6
171.4 -0.8 3.8 -3.2 167.7 -0.8 6.8 -8.7 23.6 0.6 3.4 17.7 1.9 3.2 -6.2 7.3 -2.5 18.5 -3.5 19.8 4 16.3 -0.1 9.4 1.3 1.9 2.7 60.7 -1.1
171.1 -0.6 3.8 -2.5 167.3 -0.6 6.8 -6.4 23.6 0.6 3.4 17.7 1.9 3.2 -2.8 7.3 -2 18.5 -2.8 19.9 4 16.2 -0.2 9.4 1.4 1.9 -0.8 60.5 -1.1
171.2 -0.4 3.8 -0.9 167.4 -0.4 6.8 -4.4 23.5 0 3.4 17.7 1.9 3.3 1.5 7.3 -1.3 18.6 -2.4 19.9 3.1 16.2 -0.2 9.5 1 1.9 -2.2 60.4 -0.7
171.2 -0.3 3.8 0.4 167.4 -0.3 6.8 -1.4 23.4 -0.5 3.4 17.6 1.9 3.3 3.6 7.3 -0.4 18.6 -0.6 20.1 2.5 16.2 -0.7 9.5 0.7 1.9 -9.4 60.3 -0.8
171.4 0 3.8 1.5 167.6 -0.1 6.9 1.1 23.4 -0.8 3.4 17.5 2 3.3 3.1 7.3 0.1 18.7 0.8 20.2 2 16.1 -1 9.5 0.4 1.9 -4.1 60.3 -0.7
171.5 0.2 3.9 2.2 167.6 0.2 7 2.2 23.5 -0.2 3.5 17.6 2 3.3 1.2 7.3 0.7 18.5 0 20.3 1.8 16.2 -0.4 9.5 0.5 1.9 -1.3 60.2 -0.4
171.7 0.3 3.9 3.1 167.8 0.3 7 3.5 23.6 0.4 3.5 17.6 2 3.3 -0.3 7.4 0.8 18.5 -0.6 20.2 1.4 16.2 0.4 9.5 0.3 1.9 -1.1 60.3 -0.3
172.5 0.8 3.9 3.9 168.6 0.7 7.1 4.3 23.7 1.3 3.5 17.7 2 3.3 -0.5 7.4 1.1 18.7 0.1 20.3 0.9 16.3 0.8 9.5 0.2 1.9 -0.7 60.5 0.3
173.3 1.1 4 4 169.3 1.1 7.2 4.5 23.9 1.9 3.6 17.7 2.1 3.2 -0.4 7.5 1.8 18.8 0.9 20.3 0.4 16.4 1.4 9.5 0.3 1.9 -0.3 60.7 0.7
174.1 1.5 4 3.9 170.1 1.5 7.3 4.5 24 1.9 3.6 17.8 2.1 3.2 -0.2 7.5 2 18.9 2.2 20.3 0.2 16.4 1.6 9.5 0.5 1.9 0.1 61 1.4
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
172.8 -2.3 3.9 -9.8 169 -2.1 7.5 -11 23.5 -2.4 3.5 17.5 2 3.4 -11 7.5 -6.1 19.2 -2.6 19.1 1 16.3 -1 9.3 -0.9 1.9 -5.2 61.4 -0.9
172.1 -1.3 3.9 -8.9 168.3 -1.1 7.3 -9.1 23.4 0.7 3.5 17.5 1.9 3.3 -8.8 7.4 -4.7 19.1 -2.7 19.1 0 16.2 -1.1 9.3 -0.7 1.9 -4.9 61.1 0.4
171.8 -1.4 3.8 -8.1 168 -1.2 7.1 -8.4 23.5 1 3.4 17.5 1.9 3.2 -6.9 7.4 -3.3 19.1 -0.5 19.3 1.3 16.2 -2.8 9.4 0.7 1.9 0.3 60.9 -1.5
171.6 -1.2 3.8 -4.1 167.9 -1.1 6.9 -9.2 23.5 0.2 3.4 17.6 1.9 3.2 -8 7.3 -3 18.7 -2.8 19.6 3.4 16.3 -0.9 9.4 0.8 2.1 9.5 60.8 -1.5
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
10338.4 10354.3 10384.1 10383.2 10392.1 10412.5 10444.7 10507.5 10588.1 10651.9 10736.2 10825.5 10915.1 11006.6 360.5 360.9 361.2 361.2 361.1 361.1 361.1 361.5 361.9 362.4 363.1 364 364.9 365.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1 188.9 187.9 187.2 186.9 186.8 186.7 186.8 186.9 187.1 187.4 187.8 188.2 188.7 189.2 -1.4 -1.4 -2.5 -2 -1.2 -0.6 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.2 7 1034 1165 1249 1315 1333 1436 1613 1793 1966 2105 2201 2357 2511 2603 794 861 930 1003 1065 1182 1358 1557 1721 1843 1918 2037 2139 2183 240 304 319 312 268 254 255 236 245 262 283 320 372 420
*Quarterly at an annual rate
82
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
T a l l aha s s ee
Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL October 2009 Forecast 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
8.4 2.1 5.3 3.1
8.7 3.6 5.5 3.3
9.5 8.4 5.8 3.7
10.2 7.4 6.1 4.1
10.8 6.3 6.4 4.4
11.4 5.2 6.7 4.7
11.6 2.3 6.7 4.9
11.6 -0.4 6.7 4.9
11.8 2.3 6.8 5
12.3 3.8 6.9 5.4
12.9 4.8 7.2 5.7
13.5 4.6 7.5 6
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
8.1 0.7
8.3 1.6
8.7 5.6
9.1 4.4
9.4 3.4
9.7 2.6
9.6 -1
10.3 7.8
10.7 3.5
10.9 1.9
11.2 3.1
11.5 3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
25.7 24.8
26.2 24.8
28 25.9
29.7 26.6
31 27.1
32.2 27.3
32.5 26.7
32.1 28.6
32.8 29.5
34 30.1
35.3 30.7
36.6 31.3
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
32.2 2.9
32.8 2.1
34.2 4.2
35 2.3
35.9 2.7
37.2 3.4
37.9 1.9
38.6 1.9
39.5 2.3
40.3 2
41.2 2.4
42.4 2.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
164.4 -0.9
165.7 0.8
168.2 1.5
172.8 2.8
177 2.4
179 1.1
176.9 -1.2
173.2 -2.1
171.5 -1
171.3 -0.1
172.9 0.9
175.8 1.7
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.1 -6.6
4.1 -0.6
4.2 2
4.2 0.8
4.5 4.9
4.6 2.8
4.4 -4.8
4 -9.2
3.8 -4.6
3.8 0.8
3.9 3.7
4.1 3.7
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
160.2 -0.8
161.6 0.8
163.9 1.5
168.5 2.8
172.5 2.4
174.4 1.1
172.5 -1.1
169.3 -1.9
167.7 -0.9
167.5 -0.1
169 0.9
171.7 1.6
7.2 3.5
7.7 7.1
8.3 8.6
9.4 12.4
9.8 4.8
9.5 -3
8.6 -9.6
7.5 -12.5
6.9 -8.2
6.9 -0.7
7.2 4.2
7.5 5.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
23.4 -3.1
23.5 0.5
24.6 4.4
25.4 3.4
25.6 0.9
25.3 -1.2
24.2 -4.4
23.4 -3.3
23.6 0.6
23.5 -0.4
23.8 1.4
24.2 1.9
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.2 18.1 2.1
3 18.5 2
3.3 19.1 2.1
3.6 19.3 2.5
3.7 19.4 2.4
3.8 19.2 2.4
3.6 18.5 2.1
3.5 17.6 2
3.4 17.6 1.9
3.4 17.6 1.9
3.5 17.7 2.1
3.7 18 2.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
4 -13.4
3.8 -3.8
4 4.6
4.1 1.9
3.9 -4.7
4 2.6
3.8 -3.7
3.4 -11.6
3.2 -6
3.3 2.4
3.2 -0.4
3.3 1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.4 7.4
7.7 3
7.6 -0.7
8 4.8
8.3 4.4
8.2 -1.9
8 -1.8
7.5 -6.1
7.3 -2.7
7.3 -0.2
7.4 1.4
7.5 1.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
18.2 -2.7
18.2 -0.1
18.2 -0.2
19.2 5.5
20.1 4.9
19.9 -1.1
19.6 -1.2
19.2 -2.3
18.7 -2.4
18.6 -0.6
18.7 0.6
19.2 2.4
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
16.5 -1.8
16.7 1.1
16.4 -1.7
16.8 2.7
17.4 3.4
18.1 3.9
18.9 4.5
19.1 0.7
19.7 3.2
20.1 2.4
20.3 0.7
20.3 0.3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
13.4 3.2
13.6 1.6
14.4 6.1
15.6 8.3
16.2 3.3
16.7 3.7
16.5 -1.7
16.4 -0.3
16.2 -1
16.2 -0.6
16.3 1
16.4 0.7
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
8.1 -0.2
7.8 -3.7
8 2.8
8 -0.6
8.5 5.8
9 5.9
9.4 5.1
9.3 -1
9.4 1.1
9.5 0.6
9.5 0.3
9.5 0.3
1.9 2.2
2 3
1.9 -3.3
1.9 0
1.9 -1.7
1.9 0
2 4
1.9 -3.8
2 2.9
1.9 -4.4
1.9 -0.5
1.9 0.1
60.1 -0.5
60.6 0.8
60.5 -0.1
60.1 -0.5
60.8 1.2
61.8 1.6
61.4 -0.6
61.5 0.1
60.7 -1.3
60.3 -0.6
60.6 0.5
61.7 1.8
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
9378.5
9571.6
9807.7
10245.2
10455.7
10563.6
10529.6
10298.8
10393
10548.1
10870.9
11181.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
328.3 1.1
333.2 1.5
337.5 1.3
342.3 1.4
348.1 1.7
353.8 1.6
357.8 1.1
360.4 0.7
361.1 0.2
361.7 0.2
364.5 0.8
368.3 1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
172.5 0
173.4 0.5
173 -0.2
176.4 2
181.4 2.8
186.3 2.7
190.4 2.2
189.9 -0.3
186.9 -1.6
187 0.1
188.5 0.8
190.5 1.1
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.5
4.2
3.8
3.2
2.8
3.2
4.6
7.8
8.6
8.2
7.4
6.6
2661 2177 483
3822 2424 1398
3382 2131 1251
3702 2767 934
3096 2536 560
2765 2171 594
1507 1038 469
1193 823 370
1333 1045 288
1869 1620 250
2418 2069 349
2707 2218 489
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
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T ampa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r
P r o fi l e s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home. Quick Facts:
• MSA population estimate of 2,723,949 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 169,070 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,174,727 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Pasco County population estimate of 462,715 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 917,437 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• A civilian labor force of 1,341,382 in January 2008 for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 64,031 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• Publix Super Markets – 23,248 employees • Hillsborough County School District – 21,426 employees
• MacDill Air Force Base – 19,000 employees • Baycare – 17,000 employees
• Verizon Communications – 14,000 employees 84
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
• University of South Florida – 12,477 employees
• Hillsborough County Government – 10,886 employees • Danka Business Systems – 9,500 employees • Tampa International Airport – 8,000 employees • Lincare Holdings – 6,100 employees
Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal & Committee of One Hundred Research
Out l o o k Summa r Y The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is expected to show relatively moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 4.9 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 35.1 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.5 percent, one of the highest in the state. The average level for wages will be 45.7 annually. Population growth will average 0.6 percent. Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest Gross Metro Product, at a level of 97,772.65 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 2.0 percent annually, tied for second highest in the state. The expected annual unemployment rate is 9.9 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area is Professional and Business Services, growing 5.9 percent each year. The Education and Health Services sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 2.0 percent. The sector that will experience the greatest decline is the Information sector, with an average annual declining rate of -1.3 percent.
M et r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Tampa Bay real estate still threatened by rising rates, Florida unemployment • Mortgage rates have reached a seven-month high and though home sales in the Tampa Bay area have risen over the year, almost half of those sales involved foreclosed homes.
T ampa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r
• The area home prices were on the rise, but have now plateaued at a median sales price of $130,000. • 9% to 12% of homeowners are at least 90 days late on their house payments. Source: St. Petersburg Times, June 12, 2009
Bank of America plans layoffs of 81 in Tampa • Bank of America is planning to layoff 81 employees at its consolidated processing center, located in the Tampa Bay area. • The layoffs are scheduled to take place between August 14 and November 27. • This is all part of a larger plan to layoff more than 30,000 employees following its merger with Merrill Lynch. Source: St. Petersburg Times, June 17, 2009
Pinellas expects to create 65 jobs with $3.7 million in stimulus funds
• There were 915 single-family housing units started in the second quarter of 2009, and while this is down by 30.3% from last year, it is an increase from the 708 housing units started in the first quarter of this year. • The majority of the houses were priced under $200,000. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, July 29, 2009
Colliers Arnold: Tampa Bay industrial space mounts • According to commercial real estate firm Colliers Arnold, negative net absorption hit 2.8 million square feet in the second quarter of this year. • Around 9.3% of industrial and flex space in the Tampa Bay region was left vacant. • These increasing vacancy rates mean that tenants are able to secure long-term leases at unprecedented rates. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, July 31, 2009
• The $3.7 million in federal stimulus funding set aside for energy-efficient projects is expected to create 65 jobs over the next year. • The jobs will emerge in projects such as making flashing traffic lights run on solar power, retrofitting foreclosed homes with energy efficient appliances, and finding ways to save money on cooling costs. • Some citizens are dissatisfied with the seemingly low number of jobs the stimulus money is creating. Source: St. Petersburg Times, June 17, 2009
Housing industry focusing on sub-$200,000 homes • Home construction is reviving in the Tampa Bay area, but construction is focused on houses in the lower price ranges.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
85
T ampa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate (percent)
12.0%
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Tampa Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)
110000.0 100000.0
10.0% 90000.0
8.0% 6.0%
80000.0
4.0%
70000.0
2.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate
60000.0
Tampa Payroll Employment
Tampa Real Personal Income
(Thousands)
1300.0 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0
86
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product
(percent change year ago)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income
T ampa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r
Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL* October 2009 Forecast 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
99.4 -2.1 51.1 48.3 90.5 9.5 36.2 33 43.2 1.3
99.7 -0.6 51.2 48.5 90.5 9.6 36.3 33 43.5 2
100.7 1.3 51.7 49 91.3 11.3 36.7 33.3 43.8 2.3
101.7 1.9 52.1 49.7 91.9 0.1 37.1 33.5 44 2.3
102.8 3.4 52.4 50.4 92.4 2.1 37.5 33.7 44.2 2.4
103.9 4.1 52.9 50.9 92.9 2.7 37.9 33.9 44.5 2.4
104.9 4.2 53.4 51.5 93.5 2.4 38.3 34.1 44.7 2.2
106.2 4.4 53.9 52.3 94.2 2.5 38.7 34.3 44.9 2.1
107.8 4.9 54.5 53.3 95.1 2.9 39.2 34.6 45.1 2
109.5 5.5 55.2 54.3 96.2 3.5 39.7 34.9 45.4 2
111.2 6 56 55.2 97.2 4 40.3 35.2 45.7 2.1
113 6.3 56.9 56.1 98.4 4.5 40.8 35.5 46 2.3
114.6 6.3 57.8 56.9 99.5 4.7 41.2 35.8 46.3 2.5
116.2 6.1 58.6 57.5 100.5 4.5 41.7 36 46.6 2.7
1173 0.1 60.8 -3.8 1112.2 0.3 58.9 -6.7 217.4 0.5 48.2 141.6 25.6 26.7 -6.8 91.8 -2.6 216.2 1.2 177.4 3.4 121.3 0.9 49.2 1.3 22.2 3.5 131 -0.2
1177.8 0.9 61.1 -2.6 1116.6 1.1 59.1 -4.6 217.1 0.5 47.9 141.9 25.5 27.1 -3.4 91.3 -2.1 221 4.5 178.2 3.5 121 0.9 49.2 1.4 21.6 0.2 130.9 -0.3
1182.6 1.2 61.3 -0.9 1121.3 1.3 59.2 -2.8 216.6 0 47.8 141.9 25.5 27.5 1.3 91.4 -1.5 225.7 5.2 178.7 3 120.7 0.6 49.3 1 21.5 -1.7 130.9 -0.2
1189.1 1.5 61.4 0.7 1127.6 1.5 59.6 0 216.2 -0.3 48.3 141.1 25.8 27.4 3.1 91.5 -0.9 230.4 7.1 180.1 2.6 120.8 0 49.3 0.7 21.4 -9.5 130.9 -0.1
1196.3 2 61.9 1.8 1134.4 2 60.3 2.4 216.5 -0.4 49 140.7 26.1 27.3 2.2 91.9 0.1 234.5 8.4 181.5 2.3 120.7 -0.5 49.3 0.3 21.4 -4 131 0.1
1204.2 2.2 62.6 2.4 1141.6 2.2 61.2 3.4 217.7 0.3 49.3 141.3 26.4 27.2 0.3 92.3 1.1 238 7.7 182.3 2.3 121 0 49.4 0.4 21.4 -1.1 131.2 0.3
1214 2.7 63.3 3.3 1150.7 2.6 61.9 4.6 218.9 1.1 49.7 141.9 26.7 27.1 -1.2 92.7 1.5 243.2 7.8 182.8 2.3 121.7 0.8 49.4 0.2 21.4 -0.5 131.5 0.5
1225.4 3.1 63.9 4 1161.5 3 62.9 5.6 220.3 1.9 50.2 142.4 27 27.1 -1.2 93.4 2.1 249 8.1 183.5 1.9 122.4 1.3 49.4 0.2 21.4 -0.3 132.1 0.9
1236.7 3.4 64.5 4.1 1172.2 3.3 64 6.2 221.7 2.4 50.7 142.7 27.4 27 -1 94.5 2.9 254.3 8.5 184 1.4 123 1.9 49.5 0.4 21.4 0 132.8 1.3
1246.9 3.5 65.1 3.9 1181.8 3.5 65.2 6.6 223 2.4 51.2 143.2 27.7 27 -0.8 95.4 3.4 258.5 8.6 184.5 1.2 123.6 2.2 49.7 0.5 21.4 0.2 133.5 1.8
91370.1 91594.2 92077.4 92308.6 92629.7 93200.7 93720.4 94600.1 95640.7 96646.1 97871.5 99005.7 2744.3 2744.2 2744.6 2742.2 2741.3 2741.5 2742.8 2746.2 2750.5 2755.8 2761.6 2770.4 0.2 0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1319 1313.9 1309.7 1308.3 1307.5 1307.1 1308.2 1309.4 1311.5 1314.6 1318.5 1322.2 -0.5 -1.6 -1.7 -1.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1 11.1 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.2 11 10.7 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.5 6574 7515 8186 8502 9126 10108 11382 12895 14318 15401 16326 17585 4382 5109 5582 5936 6412 7293 8575 10149 11535 12587 13364 14454 2193 2407 2604 2567 2714 2815 2807 2747 2782 2814 2962 3131
100161 2779.4 1.1 1326.2 1.1 9.2 18861 15498 3363
101305 2789 1.2 1330.9 1.2 8.9 19686 16102 3583
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1172.2 -4.1 63.2 -10.9 1108.9 -3.7 63.1 -15.9 216.3 -4.7 49.2 140.7 26.1 28.7 -6.3 94.3 -3.5 213.6 -6 171.5 0.6 120.2 -1.5 48.6 0 21.5 -1 131.2 0.1
1167 -3.4 62.8 -9.9 1104.3 -3 62 -13.4 215.9 -2.8 48.8 140.6 25.8 28.1 -5.6 93.3 -3.8 211.6 -6.4 172.1 1 119.9 -0.6 48.5 1 21.5 -0.7 131.3 -0.3
1169 -1.9 61.8 -8.7 1107.2 -1.5 60.9 -8.4 216.5 -1 48.5 140.5 25.7 27.1 -7.6 92.8 -4.1 214.6 -0.4 173.5 0.9 119.9 -2.1 48.8 0.7 21.8 0.2 131.1 -0.7
1171.6 -0.7 61 -6.4 1110.6 -0.3 59.6 -7.9 216.9 0.1 48.3 140.8 25.6 26.6 -8.6 92.3 -2.4 215.2 -0.6 175.5 2.8 120.8 0 49 0.7 23.7 9.9 131.1 0
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
87
T ampa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r
Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL October 2009 Forecast 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
74.2 3.4 41.4 32.8
76.5 3.1 41.9 34.6
82.5 7.9 44.9 37.6
88.6 7.4 47.8 40.8
95.3 7.6 51 44.3
99.3 4.1 52.7 46.6
101.2 2 52.5 48.7
99.6 -1.6 51.3 48.3
102.3 2.7 52.3 50
107.1 4.7 54.3 52.9
113.8 6.2 57.3 56.4
120.5 5.9 60.9 59.6
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
71.6 2
72.4 1.1
76.1 5.1
79.4 4.3
83.1 4.7
84.4 1.5
83.2 -1.3
88.7 6.5
92.1 3.9
94.7 2.8
98.9 4.4
103.2 4.3
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
29.8 28.8
30.2 28.6
31.9 29.4
33.5 30
35.4 30.9
36.5 31
37 30.4
36.3 32.3
37.3 33.6
39 34.5
41 35.6
42.8 36.6
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
35.6 3.8
36 1
37 2.9
38.1 2.9
39.9 4.9
41.4 3.7
42.5 2.5
43.1 1.5
44.1 2.4
45 2.1
46.1 2.4
47.5 3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1150.2 -0.8
1153.7 0.3
1203.1 4.3
1244.7 3.5
1264.4 1.6
1260.2 -0.3
1225.4 -2.8
1177.5 -3.9
1172.9 -0.4
1193 1.7
1230.7 3.2
1271.1 3.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
80 -5
76 -5
76.6 0.8
77.3 0.9
78.2 1.2
75.6 -3.4
71.5 -5.4
64.7 -9.5
61.2 -5.4
61.8 1
64.2 3.8
66.5 3.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1070.2 -0.5
1077.7 0.7
1126.5 4.5
1167.4 3.6
1186.2 1.6
1184.6 -0.1
1153.9 -2.6
1112.8 -3.6
1111.6 -0.1
1131.2 1.8
1166.6 3.1
1204.7 3.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
69.6 2.8
72 3.5
79.1 9.9
88.3 11.6
93.9 6.3
87.4 -7
76.1 -12.8
64 -15.9
59.6 -6.9
60 0.7
63.5 5.8
68.5 7.9
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
228 -1.8
221.5 -2.8
226.5 2.2
233.9 3.2
236.1 1
234.6 -0.7
227.4 -3
216.9 -4.6
217 0
216.8 -0.1
221 2
226.3 2.4
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
53.3 141.9 32.8
50.4 139.7 31.4
50.9 143.3 32.3
52.8 149 32.1
54 151 31.1
54.3 150.8 29.4
53.1 146.4 28
49.4 141.2 26.2
48.3 141.2 25.6
48.6 141.3 26
50.4 142.5 27.2
52.4 145 28.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
35.8 -7.9
34.6 -3.5
32.9 -4.8
32.7 -0.6
32.6 -0.2
32.6 -0.1
30.9 -5.3
28.8 -6.7
26.9 -6.7
27.4 1.7
27.1 -1
27.3 0.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
92.5 0.2
93.9 1.5
95.5 1.7
99.4 4.1
102.7 3.2
101.8 -0.9
97.7 -4
94.7 -3.1
92.1 -2.8
91.8 -0.3
94 2.4
96.6 2.7
190.9 -3.7
197.9 3.6
224.2 13.3
237.2 5.8
240.3 1.3
237 -1.4
227.7 -3.9
214.3 -5.9
216.8 1.1
232.1 7.1
251.3 8.2
268.8 7
143 2.1
147.6 3.2
152.3 3.2
154.7 1.6
158.4 2.4
165.6 4.5
170.1 2.7
171.6 0.9
176.2 2.7
180.6 2.5
183.7 1.7
185.9 1.2
115.7 1.1
116.1 0.4
119.7 3.1
123.7 3.3
125.9 1.8
126.1 0.2
122.6 -2.8
120.9 -1.4
120.8 -0.1
120.8 0
122.7 1.6
124.5 1.5
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
48 5.6
47.9 -0.2
49.2 2.7
49.4 0.5
47.1 -4.6
47.8 1.5
48.5 1.4
48.6 0.1
49 1
49.3 0.6
49.5 0.3
49.7 0.5
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
19 0.7
19.5 2.8
19.9 2.2
20.8 4.3
21 1.2
21.1 0.5
21.7 3
21.6 -0.6
22.3 3.5
21.4 -4.2
21.4 -0.2
21.4 0.3
127.7 0.1
126.6 -0.8
127.2 0.4
127.2 0
128.1 0.7
130.6 2
131 0.3
131.4 0.3
131 -0.3
131 0
132.5 1.1
135.7 2.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
80044.9
83081.6
86835
91681.1
95371
94990
93766.5
91092.6
92554.1
95151.8
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
2488 1.7
2530 1.7
2584.8 2.2
2642.6 2.2
2689.2 1.8
2717 1
2736.2 0.7
2745.5 0.3
2742.4 -0.1
2748.8 0.2
2775.1 1
2815.3 1.4
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
1223 1
1226.3 0.3
1255.8 2.4
1258 0.2
1281.9 1.9
1303.6 1.7
1324.1 1.6
1322.6 -0.1
1308.2 -1.1
1310.9 0.2
1324.5 1
1344 1.5
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
88
99585.8 103798.9
5.6
5.3
4.5
3.9
3.4
4.2
6.5
10.9
11.3
10.6
9.4
8.3
23639 18032 5608
27283 20013 7270
27279 22068 5211
32762 27605 5158
22881 19469 3412
11564 8527 3037
8932 5347 3585
6564 4134 2430
8980 6305 2675
13499 10711 2787
18115 14855 3260
20979 16993 3986
Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2009
I n du s t r y L o cati o n Q u o tie n t
E x p l a n ati o n a n d I n te r p r etati o n This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.
C a l cu l ati o n An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
89
In Appreciation
The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:
Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision
maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.
Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-
members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.
Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is
highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.
Appraisers t Brokers t Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com
Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.
Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.
We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:
Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness within the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida and is a widely recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. As an award-winning forecaster, researcher, and professor, Snaith is always interested in the application of academic expertise to the solution of real world problems. Snaith has served as a consultant for a client list ranging from local and regional municipalities to multi-national corporations, including Compaq, Dell and IBM. He has held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, University of North Dakota and University of the Pacific. Snaith frequently appears in national and regional media and is sought after as a speaker. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune and has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business Channel. Known for his engaging presentations, one business editor wrote, “Snaith (has) an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels including USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Livingston Survey. In 2007 he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, besting UCLA, Wells Fargo and other esteemed forecasting groups. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. Snaith was recently named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and was one of just two academic economists making the list which was released in the December 2008 issue of Bloomberg Markets. For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu
U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3
FA X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4
w w w. i e c . u c f. e d u