Punta Gorda ..........................................................................................115

Short Term Outlook for Punta Gorda, FL July 2021

2021:Q22021:Q32021:Q42022:Q12022:Q2 2022:Q32022:Q42023:Q12023:Q22023:Q32023:Q42024:Q12024:Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.8 3.5 -9.1 0.3 2.7 4.5 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.7 4.6 Wages and Salaries 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 Nonwage Income 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 Real Personal Income (12$) 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 -0.6 1.1 -10.8 -1.3 1.1 2.8 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.6 Per Capita Income (Ths) 47.0 46.1 45.5 46.0 46.5 46.9 47.1 47.3 47.8 48.2 48.6 49.1 49.5 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 43.4 42.5 41.8 42.0 42.3 42.5 42.5 42.5 42.7 42.9 43.0 43.2 43.4 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 50.8 50.8 51.0 51.1 51.5 51.8 52.2 52.7 53.3 53.8 54.3 54.9 55.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.7 4.5 3.0 2.0 1.4 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.4 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 48.6 49.8 50.4 50.6 51.0 51.1 51.2 51.1 51.4 51.5 51.5 51.5 51.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.2 2.4 3.4 4.4 4.9 2.7 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.2 Manufacturing 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 -2.5 -6.7 6.1 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 Nonmanufacturing 47.8 49.0 49.7 49.8 50.2 50.4 50.4 50.3 50.6 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.4 2.5 3.5 4.3 5.0 2.7 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.2 Construction & Mining 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 1.7 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 11.7 11.9 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.9 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.7 10.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 2.0 0.6 -0.4 -1.7 -4.7 -6.7 -6.5 -3.8 -3.7 -1.7 -1.5 -4.4 Wholesale Trade 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Retail Trade 9.3 9.5 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Information 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.4 -1.3 4.0 11.5 12.8 12.1 9.1 6.5 7.0 6.1 8.4 9.1 9.6 Financial Activities 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 -1.3 1.0 2.1 5.6 6.2 5.6 4.2 1.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 0.9 Prof & Business Services 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.0 3.0 9.2 10.0 5.7 2.5 -0.6 -1.0 0.6 1.2 1.6 3.1 Educ & Health Services 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 0.7 1.6 2.5 4.4 3.3 2.1 3.1 0.8 0.4 1.1 1.5 2.2 Leisure & Hospitality 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 20.3 6.9 13.7 14.2 13.7 8.7 10.6 8.6 8.9 8.8 4.4 4.8 1.7 Other Services 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 21.1 12.7 10.3 8.3 7.1 5.1 1.7 -0.4 -3.1 -5.4 -5.2 -5.0 -3.6 Federal Government 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 -23.0 -13.7 -0.5 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 State & Local Government 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 3.7 3.6 3.8 6.1 4.8 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.0

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 198.7 199.4 200.1 200.6 201.1 201.6 202.1 202.6 203.1 203.5 204.0 204.4 204.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 Labor Force (Ths) 71.3 72.4 73.0 73.5 73.9 74.5 74.9 75.3 75.8 76.2 76.5 76.8 77.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.8 1.4 1.6 3.9 3.7 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 Unemployment Rate (%) 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 Total Housing Starts 3317.8 2857.4 2574.3 2335.6 2148.5 1986.9 1859.7 1785.5 1755.0 1740.8 1749.7 1746.6 1734.0 Single-Family 2512.0 2139.5 1913.6 1719.0 1600.7 1503.2 1441.4 1378.4 1346.8 1334.4 1344.2 1340.1 1330.4 Multifamily 805.8 718.0 660.7 616.6 547.8 483.7 418.4 407.2 408.2 406.4 405.5 406.5 403.6

PROFILES

The Sebastian MSA is located in central east Florida and is comprised of the Indian River County. Sebastian is home to Pelican Island, America’s first National Wildlife refuge, and is known for its Atlantic-facing beaches.

QUICK FACTS

• Metro population estimate of 153,989 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Indian River County population estimate of 153,989 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S.

Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 63,868 in May 2021 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 5.1% as of May 2021, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 3,418 unemployed people (Florida Research and

Economic Database).

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Sebastian Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show below-average growth in the economic indicators studied in this forecast. The MSA’s Gross Metro Product level will be at $6,535.26 million, the fifth lowest in the state. Average annual wage growth of 3.8 percent will lead the average annual wage level to $58,100. The per capita income level of $85,000, the second highest in the state MSAs will be boosted by personal income growth of 3.5 percent. Population growth will be 1.1 percent.

The Sebastian MSA will experience above average employment growth rate in the state at 2.6 percent annually. Sebastian’s unemployment rate should average 2.9 percent.

Leisure sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 8.2 percent growth annually. The Professional & Business Services sector will see the second-highest average annual growth rate at 5.4 percent, followed by the Other Services at 5.1 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

After years of debate, Vero Beach still considering stormwater tax, possible reduction next year

• The proposed utility tax plan is expected to raise about $1.1 million, which will be used for stormwater projects in Vero Beach. • However, there is concern from some Council members that property owners won’t be able to afford the tax, so they are asking for the proposal to be delayed until 2022 or if it is to be implemented in 2021, the rates should be reduced. • At the current rates, the utility tax would be about $32 for a small home and about $52,620 for a large business. Source: Sebastian Daily, April 27, 2021

Sebastian businesses need help, so why won’t workers apply?

• As more people are moving to Sebastian and people are getting vaccinated, residents of

Sebastian are eager to eat out, but businesses are finding it difficult to find workers to help meet the demand. • One restaurant, the Tiki Bar & Grill, decided to close its kitchen on Tuesdays and only serve a limited selection of appetizers because they could not find people to work in the kitchen. • This problem isn’t limited to Sebastian, but a lot of Sebastian restaurants are on the waterfront and focus on hospitality making it difficult to implement alternatives that other restaurants have used like ordering from a touchpad. Source: Sebastian Daily, April 30, 2021

Vero Beach stormwater proposal would assess taxes on public libraries, schools, churches

• If the city tax proposal is approved, places such as schools, fire stations, and public libraries would be taxed. • The tax revenue will be used to pay for stormwater projects. • Indian River County District, for instance, would pay $32,960 in taxes to Vero Beach and Indian

River County would pay $38,872. Source: Treasure Coast Palm, May 10, 2021

Why Elite Airways will suspend Vero Beach service for seven months this fall

• While Vero Beach’s airport is undergoing a rehabilitation project, Elite Airways will move to

Orlando Melbourne International Airport. • Todd Scher, Regional Airport Director, stated that the move is only temporary with Elite planning to return to Vero Beach after the construction is complete.

• The runway project at Vero Beach’s airport will cost $8.5 million, which will mainly be paid for by the Federal Aviation Administration. Source: Treasure Coast Palm, May 25, 2021

Vero Beach wants to get a share of Indian River County bed-tax money

• Indian River County imposes a 4% tourism tax when staying at a hotel for less than six months, but Councilman Dick Winger said, “The city gets no benefit from (the bed tax).” • A significant portion of the bed-tax money comes from businesses located in Vero Beach, which is why Councilman Winger thinks Vero Beach deserves a portion of the taxes. • In addition, the beaches in Vero Beach attracts many visitors to Indian River County. Source: Treasure Coast Palm, June 1, 2021

Sebas -Vero Beach MSA I stry Loca o Q o e ts

Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construc on Manufacturing Trade, Transporta on, and U es Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transporta on,Warehousing and U i es Informa on Financial Ac vi es Professional and Business Services Educa onal and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4

Long Term Outlook for Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL July 2021

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 10.8 11.5 12.5 12.9 14.1 14.9 14.8 15.4 16.1

Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income 6.5 6.4 8.9 3.6 8.8 6.2 -0.9 4.0 4.9 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 8.4 9.0 9.9 10.2 11.3 11.9 11.6 12.0 12.6

Real Personal Income (12$) 11.3 11.8 12.5 12.8 13.7 14.3 13.9 14.2 14.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 4.2 6.3 2.3 7.5 3.7 -2.6 2.1 2.9 Per Capita Income (Ths) 71.0 74.1 79.3 80.7 86.4 90.6 88.7 91.4 95.0 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 74.5 76.1 79.4 79.8 84.4 86.6 83.4 84.3 86.0 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 46.1 46.5 47.8 49.0 52.8 55.9 56.7 58.7 61.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 0.9 2.8 2.5 7.8 5.9 1.6 3.4 4.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 50.5 51.9 53.5 54.4 52.1 53.1 55.5 56.7 57.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 2.8 3.1 1.7 -4.4 2.1 4.4 2.3 1.5 Manufacturing 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -4.7 4.4 12.8 4.9 -6.2 0.9 2.9 2.6 0.9 Nonmanufacturing 48.6 49.9 51.3 52.1 49.9 50.9 53.2 54.4 55.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 2.7 2.8 1.6 -4.3 2.1 4.5 2.3 1.5 Construction & Mining 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 12.2 7.6 6.9 3.7 -1.0 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.4 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 10.2 10.4 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 2.0 3.7 -1.8 -1.7 1.1 -3.2 -3.1 -2.6

Wholesale Trade 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Retail Trade 8.6 8.7 9.0 8.7 8.5 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.5

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 Information 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.6 -11.3 0.0 5.9 2.4 5.0 Financial Activities 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 -1.9 2.3 3.4 -0.6 -1.6 4.5 0.2 0.4 Prof & Business Services 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.5 7.1 7.2 7.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 4.9 5.2 4.2 -4.5 6.0 8.5 2.0 5.1 Educ & Health Services 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.9 10.8 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 2.0 1.1 4.0 -0.9 0.4 2.6 1.5 2.3 Leisure & Hospitality 7.8 8.1 8.1 8.3 7.0 7.3 8.3 9.3 9.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 3.8 1.0 2.4 -15.6 4.5 13.3 11.8 3.3 Other Services 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 0.9 4.0 -2.9 -4.5 4.2 11.7 3.0 1.6 Federal Government 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 11.1 17.7 -6.8 9.6 5.0 -5.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 State & Local Government 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 0.5 1.8 -0.8 -2.7 -0.2 5.2 1.8 0.3

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 151.6 154.6 157.4 160.2 162.8 164.8 166.6 168.3 169.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 Labor Force (Ths) 62.1 64.1 64.9 65.5 63.7 64.6 66.7 68.4 69.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 3.2 1.3 0.9 -2.7 1.4 3.3 2.5 1.8 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.0 5.1 4.4 3.8 7.3 2.8 2.6 2.8 3.3 Total Housing Starts 1057.1 1113.6 1293.4 1453.9 977.6 1540.5 1507.8 1468.1 1462.8 Single-Family 999.0 1110.2 1254.8 1419.0 968.9 1525.3 1383.4 1245.6 1244.1 Multifamily 58.1 3.5 38.5 34.9 8.6 15.2 124.4 222.5 218.7