Tallahassee...........................................................................................130

Short Term Outlook for Tallahassee, FL June 2022 Forecast

2022:1 2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1 2023:2 2023:3 2023:4 2024:1 2024:2 2024:3 2024:4 2025:1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 5.9 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.1 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.5 Wages and Salaries 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 Nonwage Income 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 Real Personal Income (12$) 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.6 Per Capita Income (Ths) 53.1 53.7 54.4 54.7 54.9 55.2 55.5 55.9 56.4 56.7 57.2 57.7 58.1 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 47.3 47.2 47.4 47.4 47.3 47.3 47.3 47.5 47.7 47.8 48.0 48.2 48.4 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 58.7 59.1 59.5 59.8 60.1 60.3 60.7 61.4 61.9 62.5 63.0 63.4 63.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 11.1 7.5 4.8 3.8 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 188.0 189.4 190.2 190.3 190.1 189.8 189.2 188.4 188.1 187.9 188.0 188.2 188.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.0 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 Manufacturing 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.5 3.8 2.4 4.7 2.0 -0.3 -1.5 -2.5 -2.8 -3.2 -3.6 -3.6 -2.9 Nonmanufacturing 184.1 185.5 186.3 186.4 186.2 185.9 185.3 184.6 184.3 184.1 184.3 184.5 184.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.0 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 0.0 0.3 Construction & Mining 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7 0.9 2.2 1.5 1.1 -1.6 -2.5 -2.8 -2.4 -2.3 -1.7 -1.5 -1.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 25.6 25.6 25.5 24.9 24.6 24.7 24.4 24.4 24.1 23.6 23.4 23.3 23.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 4.4 3.5 -1.5 -3.8 -3.5 -4.2 -2.1 -2.2 -4.5 -4.2 -4.4 -4.1 Wholesale Trade 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Retail Trade 19.2 19.1 19.1 18.5 18.2 18.2 18.0 17.9 17.5 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 Information 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 6.6 -0.5 0.9 -1.5 -9.8 -10.3 -13.7 -14.0 -11.6 -7.0 -3.3 -0.1 Financial Activities 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.9 5.4 0.2 -1.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 Prof & Business Services 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.0 25.7 24.8 24.0 23.4 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.5 22.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.7 6.6 3.4 1.8 -1.1 -5.1 -8.6 -10.3 -10.6 -8.5 -6.2 -3.5 -1.3 Educ & Health Services 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.8 -1.2 -0.3 1.2 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.0 Leisure & Hospitality 19.3 19.6 19.7 20.4 20.7 21.3 21.7 21.8 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 11.4 4.3 1.4 6.1 7.3 8.4 10.2 6.6 5.1 3.3 2.2 3.1 3.3 Other Services 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.0 7.8 7.4 3.2 1.4 -1.7 -1.9 -0.6 1.2 4.4 5.9 6.9 6.7 Federal Government 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 3.2 5.2 1.7 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.7 State & Local Government 57.7 57.9 58.6 59.1 59.4 59.7 59.9 59.9 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 3.1 2.3 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 386.4 386.7 387.0 387.3 387.6 387.8 388.0 388.2 388.4 388.7 389.0 389.3 389.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Labor Force (Ths) 196.9 198.3 199.5 200.3 200.6 200.8 200.7 200.7 200.5 200.4 200.4 200.4 200.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.0 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 Total Housing Starts 2919.7 2790.6 2512.3 2284.7 2264.3 2247.9 2285.8 2260.9 2237.8 2246.9 2323.8 2332.0 2347.2 Single-Family

1619.5 1530.2 1509.6 1405.6 1370.6 1348.6 1348.3 1307.4 1277.5 1272.0 1317.2 1303.5 1311.7

Multifamily

1300.2 1260.5 1002.7 879.1 893.7 899.3 937.5 953.5 960.3 974.8 1006.6 1028.6 1035.4

PROFILES

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

QUICK FACTS

• Metro population estimate of 3,097,859 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hernando County population estimate of 193,920 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S.

Census Bureau). • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,471,968 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S.

Census Bureau). • Pasco County population estimate of 553,947 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 974,996 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census

Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 1,629,443 in May 2022 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 2.4% as of May 2022, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 38,503 unemployed people (Florida Research and

Economic Database).

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tampa—St. Petersburg—Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. The Tampa MSA will contribute the second-highest level of Gross Metro Product in the state at $159,002.76. Average annual wage growth of 5.3 percent will give the MSA the seventh-highest annual wage in the state at $71,200. Personal income growth of 4.7 percent will place the per capita income level at $48,800. Tampa will experience the state average population growth of 1.1 percent.

Employment growth is expected to average 1.0 percent annually. The MSA’s unemployment rate should average 4.7 percent, just below the state average.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Leisure & Hospitality sector with an average annual growth rate of 7.0 percent. This is followed by the Financial sector, which will see an average annual growth of 2.9 percent. The Information sector and the Professional and Business Services sector will both see a contraction in average annual growth, at rates of -0.7 percent and -3.4 percent, respectively.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

How Tom Brady’s return impacts Tampa Bay’s economy, from tickets to tourists

• Tom Brady’s surprise announcement that he was un-retiring for a third season with the Buccaneers will not just delight Tampa Bay fans eager for one more run at the Super Bowl but will also come with a positive economic impact for the area. • From increased merch and ticket sales to potential tourism gains, Tampa Bay should see windfalls big and small throughout the coming season as the Bucs retain their spot at the center of the NFL landscape. • For the Buccaneers, Brady’s return has sent the team’s sales and marketing arms into high gear. Source: Tampa Bay Times, March 23, 2022

USF opens new innovation facility aimed at growing Tampa Bay’s economy

• The University of South Florida today unveiled a new state-of-the-art research center that will deepen the connection between university innovation and the business community and help advance the Tampa Bay region’s growing startup ecosystem. • Located at the USF Research Park on the Tampa campus, the three-story, 120,000-square-foot mixed-use building features advanced laboratory facilities, as well as office and meeting spaces for new and established companies. • The $42 million project will allow the university to significantly expand its Research Park, providing much-needed space. It’s currently

home to more than 65 companies and dozens of additional student-led startups and has been at full capacity in recent years. Source: University of South Florida Newsroom, March 31, 2022

Seattle IT firm Avanade launches its first U.S. engineering hub in Tampa

• As Tampa Bay continues to become a global hub for the world’s brightest tech talent, Avanade, the leading Microsoft solutions provider, today announced the launch of the company’s first U.S.

Engineering Hub, located in Tampa. • In collaboration with the Tampa Bay Economic

Development Council, the goal is to draw upon

Tampa Bay’s deep pool of emerging tech talent to recruit 500 new software engineers over the next three years. • Tampa-based Engineering Hub team members will work with Avanade clients, locally and nationwide, to create innovative solutions to some of the biggest challenges facing businesses today – from cybersecurity to supply chain disruptions. Source: Avanade, April 6, 2022

Tampa federal judge voids U.S. mask mandate for planes, other travel

• A federal judge in Florida struck down a national mask mandate on airplanes and mass transit

Monday, and airlines and airports swiftly began repealing their requirements that passengers wear face coverings. • The judge’s decision freed airlines, airports, and mass transit systems to make their own decisions about mask requirements, resulting in a mix of responses. • The mask requirement covered airlines, airports, mass transit, and taxis, and was the biggest vestige of pandemic restrictions that were once the norm across the country. Source: Tampa Bay Times, April 19, 2022

How Florida space launches and FAA staff shortages are affecting Tampa’s airport

• The Federal Aviation Administration announced

Wednesday it plans to hire more air traffic controllers in Jacksonville and improve communication with airlines over space launches after federal officials met to discuss the massive flight delays and cancellations coming out of

Florida. • Tampa International Airport officials also want their own meeting with the FAA, executive vice president of operations John Tiliacos told the Hillsborough County Aviation Authority on Thursday. He said the airport wrote to the government agency to better understand the challenges and what’s being done to remedy them. Most flights must pass through airspace managed by the Jacksonville Air Route Traffic

Control Center — which has struggled with staffing — to get to Tampa International Airport. • “The impact to our airport operation is very significant and it’s something that we haven’t seen in years past, certainly not to this degree,”

Tiliacos said. Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 5, 2022

Construction begins on 31-story Tampa apartment tower

• Construction has begun on a 31-story luxury apartment tower in downtown Tampa, Coastal

Construction announced on Thursday. • The Arts and Entertainment Residences, developed by American Land Ventures and Gazit

Horizons, is building a 334-unit skyscraper across from the Straz Center for the Performing

Arts, according to a media release. • “There is no other location like this in Tampa, where in 60 seconds, you’re stepping into one of three cultural institutions, taking a stroll on the Riverwalk, or soaking in the view from your open balcony,” said Granvil Tracy, President of

American Land Ventures in a statement. Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 26, 2022

Long Term Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL June 2022 Forecast

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income

141.7 149.6 157.4 169.6 185.8 192.3 197.4 203.5 212.4

Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries

5.9 5.5 5.2 7.8 9.5 3.5 2.7 3.1 4.4 70.6 74.8 79.5 82.9 93.5 103.1 104.4 105.7 109.8 Nonwage Income 71.1 74.8 77.9 86.7 92.3 89.1 93.0 97.8 102.6 Real Personal Income (12$) 138.2 145.2 148.9 153.9 161.9 158.6 158.8 161.1 165.0 Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 5.0 2.5 3.4 5.2 -2.1 0.2 1.4 2.4 Per Capita Income (Ths) 46.1 48.0 50.0 53.2 57.6 58.9 59.8 61.0 63.0 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 45.0 46.6 47.3 48.3 50.2 48.6 48.1 48.3 49.0 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 53.0 54.9 56.9 61.3 66.3 70.7 72.8 75.2 77.5 Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 3.6 3.7 7.7 8.1 6.6 3.1 3.2 3.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 1320.9 1351.2 1384.5 1341.1 1397.8 1446.4 1420.4 1393.4 1406.0 Pct Chg Year Ago

2.0 2.3 2.5 -3.1 4.2 3.5 -1.8 -1.9 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

66.4 67.3 69.0 66.9 68.7 72.6 73.0 71.0 70.2 2.4 1.3 2.5 -3.0 2.6 5.8 0.5 -2.7 -1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1254.4 1283.9 1315.5 1274.2 1329.1 1373.7 1347.4 1322.4 1335.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 -3.1 4.3 3.4 -1.9 -1.9 1.0

Construction & Mining

73.9 78.4 81.9 83.0 86.2 88.5 87.7 86.0 85.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 6.0 4.6 1.3 3.8 2.7 -0.9 -2.0 -0.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 247.2 249.0 252.1 248.9 260.0 271.1 263.4 255.2 250.0 Pct Chg Year Ago

0.0 0.7 1.2 -1.2 4.5 4.3 -2.8 -3.1 -2.0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago

52.1 53.1 54.3 54.5 56.5 61.0 61.6 62.5 63.5 160.0 160.4 158.7 153.7 160.3 164.5 155.5 145.5 138.6 35.1 35.5 39.0 40.8 43.3 45.7 46.4 47.2 47.9 25.3 25.8 25.8 24.6 26.7 27.8 25.8 23.7 24.3 -1.4 2.0 0.0 -4.4 8.5 4.1 -7.1 -8.1 2.4

Financial Activities

112.6 116.9 121.7 123.9 129.3 136.9 136.6 139.0 141.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 3.8 4.1 1.8 4.3 5.9 -0.2 1.7 2.0 Prof & Business Services 235.1 241.0 247.8 247.9 263.4 271.0 240.5 213.3 220.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.5 2.8 0.1 6.2 2.9 -11.2 -11.3 3.2 Educ & Health Services 205.2 211.0 218.7 213.9 217.8 220.5 219.7 224.0 227.0 Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 2.8 3.7 -2.2 1.9 1.2 -0.3 1.9 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

153.2 158.9 162.7 133.8 147.8 158.2 170.9 175.4 178.4 2.7 3.7 2.4 -17.8 10.5 7.0 8.0 2.6 1.7 45.7 46.8 47.5 43.3 44.9 45.7 45.7 46.8 47.9 1.3 2.5 1.4 -8.8 3.6 1.9 0.1 2.2 2.5

Federal Government

24.8 25.2 26.7 28.4 28.7 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 1.8 5.8 6.3 1.3 2.3 -0.8 0.0 0.5 State & Local Government 131.5 131.0 130.6 126.5 124.2 124.6 127.8 129.9 131.9 Pct Chg Year Ago

0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -3.2 -1.8 0.3 2.6 1.6 1.5

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3072.1 3113.6 3150.2 3187.4 3223.5 3261.3 3298.9 3335.1 3371.0 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 Labor Force (Ths) 1494.4 1513.8 1542.2 1542.6 1574.5 1616.1 1644.9 1655.6 1664.6 Percent Change, Year Ago 1.4 1.3 1.9 0.0 2.1 2.6 1.8 0.7 0.5 Unemployment Rate (%)

4.1 3.6 3.3 7.8 4.3 3.5 5.1 6.0 5.6

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

17585.2 16719.3 21468.1 20377.5 24208.8 20293.7 21374.0 22851.1 23115.3 12725.6 13674.5 14877.1 15658.7 19511.7 15826.5 15674.4 16250.8 16350.9 4859.6 3044.8 6591.0 4718.9 4697.1 4467.2 5699.5 6600.2 6764.4