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Sebring..................................................................................................129
Short Term Outlook for Sebring, FL August 2022 Forecast
2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1 2023:2 2023:3 2023:4 2024:1 2024:2 2024:3 2024:4 2025:1 2025:2
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 5.1 5.7 5.4 4.3 3.8 2.7 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.9 Wages and Salaries 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 Nonwage Income 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 Real Personal Income (12$) 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 -1.2 0.0 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.4 1.6 2.2 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.1 Per Capita Income (Ths) 41.9 42.2 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.4 43.7 44.1 44.5 45.0 45.5 46.0 46.4 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 37.9 37.6 37.9 37.7 37.7 37.7 37.8 38.0 38.2 38.5 38.7 39.0 39.2 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 54.7 55.1 55.2 55.5 55.7 56.1 56.8 57.4 58.0 58.6 59.1 59.6 60.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.6 7.1 3.9 3.2 1.9 1.9 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.5
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)
Total Employment 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.3 2.7 1.8 1.0 -0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.4 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 -0.4 Manufacturing 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.9 11.4 9.8 3.8 -3.2 -8.9 -14.7 -17.0 -16.8 -16.3 -15.4 -12.5 -9.5 Nonmanufacturing 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.1 0.2 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 Construction & Mining 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 5.5 3.9 2.2 -1.7 -3.9 -4.2 -4.6 -4.7 -4.6 -4.5 -4.4 -4.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 2.5 1.9 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 -0.3 -2.7 -3.4 -4.6 -4.9 -4.1 Wholesale Trade 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Retail Trade 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Information 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 -0.4 0.3 -1.5 -4.6 -6.5 -11.2 -12.3 -10.4 -8.1 -6.2 -4.2 -2.2 Financial Activities 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 3.7 3.5 4.8 5.9 3.6 2.1 -0.6 -0.6 1.0 1.9 2.6 2.5 Prof & Business Services 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 2.3 0.6 -3.5 -8.3 -13.2 -15.4 -15.3 -12.1 -10.1 -7.2 -4.6 -2.2 Educ & Health Services 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 2.1 2.8 2.4 2.3 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.0 Leisure & Hospitality 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.9 4.9 0.4 1.1 3.0 4.6 5.7 3.9 2.5 1.8 3.1 4.5 5.8 Other Services 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 4.0 3.0 2.5 1.1 -0.5 -0.5 0.2 2.2 3.9 4.7 5.0 4.8 Federal Government 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1 3.1 3.8 5.4 6.0 4.9 3.5 2.8 2.2 1.4 0.6 -0.6 -1.7 State & Local Government 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 3.7 5.2 6.3 3.7 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.5 -0.3 -1.1
Other Economic Indicators
Population (Ths) 105.5 105.9 106.3 106.6 106.8 107.0 107.2 107.4 107.6 107.8 108.0 108.1 108.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Labor Force (Ths) 35.3 35.6 36.0 36.3 36.5 36.6 36.7 36.7 36.8 36.8 36.9 36.9 37.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 1.6 2.4 2.4 3.2 2.8 2.0 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 Unemployment Rate (%) 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.2 Total Housing Starts 590.5 488.1 459.7 414.0 404.8 414.9 413.9 400.0 396.3 397.9 401.4 405.6 405.7 Single-Family
517.1 441.0 416.7 370.1 346.9 346.4 343.4 338.4 337.7 336.9 337.8 339.4 336.9
Multifamily
73.5 47.1 43.0 43.8 57.9 68.5 70.5 61.6 58.6 60.9 63.6 66.2 68.8
PROFILES
The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.
QUICK FACTS
Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 200,364 in July 2022 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 3.0% as of July 2022, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,024 unemployed people (Florida Research and
Economic Database).
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Tallahassee MSA is expected to show low levels of growth in this forecast’s studied indicators. Tallahassee’s Gross Metro Product will be $16,992.73. Average annual wage growth of 4.0 percent should put the average annual wage at $62,500. Personal incomes will grow by 4.1 percent annually, placing the per capita income level at $48,500. Population growth will be -0.1 percent, the only contraction in population of the MSAs.
Average annual employment growth of 0.7 percent will lead to an unemployment rate of 4.3 percent for the MSA, lower than the state average of 4.6 percent.
The Leisure & Hospitality sector will see the highest annual growth rate in the MSA at 7.4 percent. The Manufacturing sector will follow with a growth rate of 2.5 percent. The Information sector and Construction and Mining sector will contract at rates of 2.1 and 1.3 percent, respectively.
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
FSU, Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare team up to construct new academic health center
• Florida State University and Tallahassee
Memorial HealthCare announced today a new partnership to build the FSU Health Tallahassee
Center, a new facility that will offer advanced medical training and translational research opportunities and explore the academic health center of the future. • The building, funded by a $125 million appropriation from the Florida Legislature, will be located on the TMH campus and include educational, medical and research laboratory space while drawing on the knowledge and expertise of TMH clinicians and faculty from the FSU College of Medicine and College of
Nursing. • The center will provide about 130,000 gross square feet of medical and research-related space distributed over five floors. It will accommodate an estimated 30 principal investigators, producing an estimated $40 million of additional annual grant funding, focused on clinical trials, data-driven precision health, digital health and clinical informatics, and clinical and translational research. Source: FSU, June 2, 2022
Airport’s International Processing Facility to bring unseen global access to capital city
• A $28-million capital investment to Tallahassee’s airport is expected to unlock international access for travelers and economic development. In a few years, residents will be able to book non-
stop flights overseas, including charter, business or general aviation flights. Possible destinations include the Caribbean, Canada, Mexico, and
South America. • So far this year, passenger traffic at Tallahassee’s airport has recovered to levels before the
COVID-19 pandemic grounded travel two years ago. First quarter 2022 shows 184,927 passengers, a 93.9% increase compared to the same time last year. • The International Processing Facility is slated to be complete by 2024. Once it is, officials said the airport’s $599 million economic impact in
Tallahassee and the region is projected to reach $1 billion and the project is expected to create 1,600 jobs for the region. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, June 7, 2022
• North American Aerospace Industries, a company that specializes in aircraft teardown and recycling, is the mystery company behind Project
Alpha, a new development coming to Tallahassee airport. • NAAI company’s website states its processes make North American Aerospace Industries
“the only company in the world that can dispose of 100 percent of a commercial jetliner without putting any materials in landfills.” • If the company makes a deal with Tallahassee’s airport, it’s slated to generate 985 permanent jobs and 1,443 temporary construction jobs. It may spur a $450 million total economic impact, according to a report by Florida State University’s
Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, July 13, 2022
Avatar Financial Group Provides $1M Bridge Loan for Tallahassee Multifamily
• Avatar Financial Group has closed a $1.4-million bridge loan for a 12-month term at 8.99% on behalf of a low-rise multifamily property located at 103 Cactus Street in Tallahassee, FL. • Avatar’s loan provided funds for construction completion as well as an interest reserve enabling the property to be stabilized with new tenants.
The owners will conventionally refinance the property once renovation is completed. • The two-story property is situated between
Florida State University, Florida A&M
University and Tallahassee Community College and is valued at $2.6 million. The complex was constructed in 1994 with 24 one-, two- and fourbedroom units. Source: Connectre, July 20, 2022
New Tallahassee banking initiative to help lowerincome communities
• When Labarron Smith wanted to start his own business in Tallahassee he worked with the Capital City Chamber of Commerce on financial education and options that allowed him to qualify for things like a low interest rate loan. The Capital City Chamber of Ccommerce is now hoping to provide the same guidance to people across Tallahassee through the Bank On
Initiative. • Katrina Tuggerson, President of the Chamber, said for the past three years she’s been looking at community solutions to help address poverty.
After finding the Bank On initiative in 202, she met with their leadership team to bring the project to Tallahassee. • The Bank on initiative, also in cities nationwide like Chicago, Philadelphia and Savannah, will focus on offering financial education to people who might not otherwise have the knowledge they need to make the best financial decisions. Source: WTXL Tallahassee, September 19, 2022
Long Term Outlook for Tallahassee, FL August 2022 Forecast
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income
15.6 16.3 17.0 18.2 20.1 21.0 21.8 22.6 23.6
Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries
4.7 4.9 4.3 6.7 10.3 4.8 3.7 3.6 4.4 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.2 10.3 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 Nonwage Income 7.4 7.8 8.1 9.0 9.7 9.6 10.1 10.6 11.2 Real Personal Income (12$) 15.1 16.0 16.6 17.5 18.6 18.3 18.4 18.8 19.2 Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3 6.5 3.6 5.6 5.9 -1.4 0.4 1.9 2.5 Per Capita Income (Ths) 41.0 42.9 44.5 47.3 52.0 54.6 56.6 58.6 61.3 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 39.6 42.0 43.3 45.6 48.2 47.6 47.8 48.7 50.0 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 45.2 46.3 47.7 51.0 55.8 60.2 61.3 63.2 65.2 Pct Chg Year Ago
3.4 2.5 3.0 7.0 9.3 7.9 2.0 3.1 3.0
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)
Total Employment 179.9 183.7 186.7 179.6 184.8 189.1 190.3 189.3 189.9 Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4 2.1 1.6 -3.8 2.9 2.3 0.6 -0.5 0.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
3.2 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.5 1.3 0.3 4.6 1.5 10.7 5.2 -2.4 -6.6 -3.8
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
176.7 180.5 183.3 176.2 181.0 185.2 186.4 185.7 186.4 1.4 2.1 1.6 -3.9 2.8 2.3 0.7 -0.4 0.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.4 8.0 8.7 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.4 3.8 8.2 9.4 -4.7 -2.2 -1.6 -3.7 -2.9 -1.2 24.3 24.5 24.6 23.6 24.6 25.5 25.5 24.6 23.9 -0.6 0.8 0.3 -4.0 4.2 3.8 -0.3 -3.3 -2.9
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 18.5 18.5 18.5 17.6 18.3 18.8 18.6 17.5 16.7 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.2 6.9 -8.3 0.0 0.8 8.3 6.0 -3.4 -6.4 -0.1
Financial Activities
7.8 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.4 8.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 2.1 -2.2 -2.3 3.8 2.6 4.0 -0.2 -0.4 Prof & Business Services 20.3 21.6 22.3 22.9 24.9 26.0 24.4 22.3 22.4 Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7 6.5 3.3 2.9 8.7 4.4 -6.1 -8.9 0.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
23.2 24.0 24.8 24.5 24.7 25.4 25.9 26.7 27.1 5.3 3.4 3.2 -1.2 1.0 2.8 1.7 3.3 1.5 20.0 20.4 21.0 16.6 18.7 19.4 20.5 21.5 21.9 1.2 1.8 2.8 -20.6 12.1 3.7 5.8 5.1 1.9 8.9 9.4 9.0 8.7 8.4 8.8 8.9 9.3 9.9 -5.3 6.3 -4.0 -4.0 -2.5 4.1 1.0 5.1 5.5
Federal Government
2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 -2.8 4.1 3.2 -3.3 -0.2 2.8 -0.9 -1.0 State & Local Government 59.4 59.5 60.0 58.6 58.2 58.3 59.6 60.0 60.1 Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3 0.3 0.7 -2.2 -0.8 0.2 2.3 0.7 0.1
Other Economic Indicators
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
380.2 381.5 383.5 384.6 385.5 385.2 385.3 385.3 384.8 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 Labor Force (Ths) 189.0 191.1 192.8 189.3 194.4 198.7 202.5 202.4 201.9 Percent Change, Year Ago 0.6 1.1 0.9 -1.8 2.7 2.2 1.9 -0.1 -0.2 Unemployment Rate (%)
4.1 3.6 3.3 6.4 4.3 3.3 4.2 4.9 4.7
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
2702.8 2982.8 2320.6 2346.9 2528.9 2472.7 2002.9 2024.0 2098.8 1814.7 2014.3 1185.1 1292.4 1476.5 1246.1 1012.7 1052.8 1092.4 888.0 968.5 1135.6 1054.5 1052.4 1226.6 990.2 971.2 1006.4
