Planners and public officials are faced with the challenge of adapting the transportation systems in Los Angeles County to the predicted effects of climate change. But not all transportation is created equal - different systems serve different populations who have a variety of needs and vulnerabilities.
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Geospatial analysis allows us to identify places with higher risk, based on these interacting risk factors: • Social vulnerability • Transportation access and redundancy • Predicted climate change effects
California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool Scores by Percent Groups
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1-5% (lowest scores) 6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-25% 26-30% 31-35% 36-40% 41-45% 46-50% 51-55% 56-60% 61-65% 66-70% 71-75% 76-80% 81-85% 86-90% 91-95% 96-100% (highest scores)
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This project considers the equity implications of transportation adaptation planning by identifying areas that have the greatest need based on the characteristics of people who live there, the availability and redundancy of transportation systems, and predicted climate change scenarios.
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Qualitative analysis allows us to understand the context for climate change adaptation work already underway at the city and county level. This context will help shape more appropriate, relevant policy recommendations.
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Zip Codes with Age Vulnerability Los Angeles County Border
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Bus and Rail Routes
• The areas with the highest social vulnerability are often the places where car ownership is lowest (even though car ownership is not an index indicator).
MetroLink LA County Metro Rail LA County Metro Bus, Antelope Valley Transit System, Culver City Bus, Dash (LADOT), Foothill Transit, Glendale Beeline, Long Beach Transit, Montebello Transit, Pasadena ARTS, Santa Monica Big Blue Bus, Torrance Transit
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Heat
Drought Earthquakes*
Wildfire
Sea Level Rise
Tsunami
Precipitation
Storm Surge
• “Age vulnerability” - a high ratio of elderly and children - often occurs in low density areas, in places that do not have the highest overall social vulnerability score. • Bus and rail generally serves the areas with high social vulnerability and low car ownership, but quality of service differs greatly across transit operators and routes. • Areas with the highest social vulnerability often do not have a density or network of high-quality bicycle infrastructure. • Bicycle infrastructure is sporadic throughout the county, perhaps because decision-makers do not consider it a viable, redundant mode to increase resilience.
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California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool
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Scores by Percent Groups
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1-75% (lowest scores) 76-80% 81-85% 86-90% 91-95% 96-100% (highest scores)
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Los Angeles County Border
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Bike Facilities
Geospatial Analysis • Integrate Walkscore data into the geospatial analysis, to represent walkable access • Overlay climate change data for heat, wildfire risk, and sea level rise » Precipitation data not yet available (includes rainfall and drought) • Identify interactions between at-risk areas, modes, and populations
Class 1 Bike Paths
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Class 2 Bike Lanes
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Mixed Facilities
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Cycle Track
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California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool
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1-75% (lowest scores) 76-80% 81-85% 86-90% 91-95% 96-100% (highest scores)
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Qualitative Analysis • Complete interviews and analyze results
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Research and poster design: Chelsea Richer Faculty Advisor: Martin Wachs Client: Los Angeles Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability
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*While earthquakes are not in-and-of-themselves an effect of climate change, they can exacerbate the effects of climate change.
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Recommendations • Develop recommendations and policy options to increase mode-specific climate adaptation strategies, for the people who need it most.
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Los Angeles County Border
Social vulnerability data from the California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool. Car ownership data from the 2010 American Communities Survey. Bus and rail data from the LA County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, MetroLink, Southern California Association of Governments, City of Pasadena, City of Glendale, City of Burbank, and Long Beach Transit. Bicycle data from the LA County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, City of Santa Monica, and City of Pasadena. Climate change icons by Megan Sheehan, Diego Naive, Iconathon, Dan Hetteix, ARudmann, Javier Sanchez, and the UN Office for Coordination of Human Affairs Visual Information Unit, via www.thenounproject.com.