PLANNING THE FUTURE

While the U of I professor has aided community planners for years, attention to Vos’ work grew after his recent research used an unusual data source to make sense of Idaho’s fast-changing demographics. He found that nearly half a million people moved to Idaho in the past decade, but nearly 300,000 residents left during the same period.

Idaho grew substantially but, more importantly, it underwent massive change, Vos stresses.

To reach these conclusions, Vos dug into an untapped source of information: driver’s licenses. Because new Idaho residents must surrender their previous state’s driver’s license within 90 days of moving and then register their vehicle at their new addresses, he thought the data could offer a realtime glimpse into Idaho’s changing demographics. Researching how communities are changing is complicated. Scientists’ focused hypotheses and research questions don’t fit when predicting the future with limited data, Vos said. The environments that he’s searching for answers in are difficult to measure.

“My research is not published in peer-reviewed journals, but it is very much used by decisionmakers,” Vos said.

In planning, shortcomings are felt community-wide. If population data is off, infrastructure might not fit the community’s needs. People could be stuck in rush hour traffic longer. Schools might not be able to serve the influx of new children.

State and local leaders say Vos’ research provides critical insights into Idaho’s population shifts, helping them answer difficult questions that the census data cannot answer.

“To date, at the Idaho Department of Commerce, we have not seen a more in-depth approach to the population trends in Idaho,” Idaho Department of Commerce Director Tom Kealey said.

The research is not Vos’ first foray into helping state leaders make sense of demographic change. For years, Idaho’s community planners have recognized Vos as a forward-thinking researcher who regularly gathers local planners to talk through issues and offer advice, said Owyhee County Planning Director Mary Huff.

Huff first met Vos a decade ago. She said he has consistently encouraged planners to dig deep in their data, find its errors and determine what it really says.