Dry Conditions in Kentucky

Dry Conditions in Kentucky By Matt Dixon Meteorologist UK Ag Weather Center Because rainfall totals have been significantly higher than normal in the past few years, it’s easy to forget that Kentucky can suffer from drought. Our last significant drought developed during the fall months of 2016. At peak strength, toward the end of November, nearly a quarter of the state was under an Extreme drought, the second worst category on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Kentucky hasn’t gotten nearly that dry in 2019, but that’s not to say it can’t happen. Rain Scarce in July and August During the second half of July and into August, rainfall became scarce over portions of the Bluegrass State, especially North Central Kentucky. The heat didn’t help, with highs consistently getting into the upper 80s to middle 90s. Even with the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry passing through the area, North Central Kentucky still missed most of the rainfall. After three straight weeks of below normal precipitation, data at the Ag Weather Center showed the state had only averaged 0.92 inches through August 18, about 1.5 inches below normal. According to county agents, impacts were numerous across North Central Kentucky, including diminished pasture conditions, lower pond levels, and expected sub-average yields of late-planted grain crops. “We’re Not Out of the Woods” With the U.S. Drought Monitor update on August 20 (Figure 1), portions of North Central Kentucky fell into the Moderate Drought category. This was the first time in almost a year that any part of the state had been designated in a drought; the last time was September 4, 2018, in a small section of Western Kentucky. In addition, nearly half of the state fell into the Abnormally Dry category. The good news is that Kentucky saw beneficial rainfall over the latter half of August, removing the label of Moderate Drought from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Unfortunately, we’re not out of the woods. September and October are the two driest months of the year. Through the first week September, most of Kentucky has not seen any rainfall, with the state average coming in at 0.02 through August 7. Looking ahead, the forecast isn’t promising through the first half of September. The next week (9/9 – 9/15) looks mostly dry with only minimal chances for rain in Figure 1 U.S. Drought Monitor update from August 20

the forecast, and making matters worse, summer heat returns to the area, with many jumping back into low to middle 90s. A bright spot may be long range outlooks (http://weather.uky.edu/ newpage/Subpages/Long_Range.php), which are trending a little wetter farther out in September, but nothing with too much confidence.

Resources to Monitor Drought Conditions

Could drought conditions return? Most definitely, yes. Will they? It’s hard to definitively say, but we’ll continue to monitor. To keep up with the changing conditions, there are a couple resources I wanted to point out. The first is a new drought page developed by the Ag Weather Center, a one-stop source with all the information you need for monitoring drought in Kentucky, located at http://weather.uky.edu/ newpage/Subpages/Drought.php. The page has information on current drought conditions, outlooks, soil moisture deviations, and station data across the state. As always, you can continue to monitor your own county forecast at http://weather.uky.edu/ukawc2.php.

A second resource for Extension agents is a monthly webinar hosted by the Kentucky Climate Center (http://kyclimate.org/), in partnership with the National Integrated Drought Information System and coordination with the Midwest Drought Early Warning System. During the webinar, “Kentucky Monthly Climate Perspective on Drought and Hydrologic Conditions,” Kentucky’s current climate conditions, weather and climate related impacts, and a look at long-range outlooks are discussed. To sign up for the webinar and get added to the email list, send an email to kymesonet@wku. edu. Each webinar is held on the first Thursday of the month; the next one is on October 3 at 2:00 PM eastern time. Even if you can’t make the initial broadcast, you can watch recordings of the webinar when it’s convenient.

Agricultural Impacts of Drought

are relayed through county agents across the state. This impact information is of great help when updating the U.S. Drought Monitor on a weekly basis during times of dry conditions. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show areas across the United States experiencing drought or abnormally dry conditions. Five different intensity levels, ranging from Abnormally Dry Conditions to Exceptional Drought are displayed. Each category is related to certain short and/or longterm impacts and other drought indicators. These impacts range, in the case of Abnormally Dry Conditions, to slowed pasture growth to widespread crop/pasture losses within an Exceptional Drought classification. More impact information related to the various categories can be found in Figure 2 (previous page).

Impact information is communicated by several contributors to the Kentucky Drought Mitigation Team, which is made up several agencies and professional organizations across the state. The UK Ag Weather Center is one of the source agencies for collecting agricultural impact information. In the end,

Figure 2 The five levels of drought. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/AboutUSDM/WhatIsTheUSDM.aspx

any impact information is very helpful in delineating areas of abnormally dry conditions or drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Based on what I’m seeing, I’ll usually call or email county agents directly to ask about dry spots across the state; if you have information and haven’t heard from me, please feel free to contact me at matt.dixon@uky.edu. The more information, the better! A Kentucky drought impact reporter is being developed by scientists with the Kentucky Division of Water to make this process easier and more convenient. Be on the lookout for updates as this becomes available.

Activating Assistance Programs

Why are updates to the Drought Monitor so important? If conditions get bad enough, the U.S. Drought Monitor will be used by the USDA to activate disaster declarations and associated assistance programs. One of those assistance programs includes the FSA Livestock Forage Program (LFP), https://www.fsa.usda.gov/Assets/ USDA-FSA-Public/usdafiles/FactSheets/2019/ livestock_forage_disaster_program-fact_ sheet_july-2019.pdf. An example from the LFP fact sheet linked above: “D2 (severe drought) intensity in any area of the county for at least eight consecutive weeks during the normal grazing period is eligible to receive assistance in an amount equal to one monthly payment.” To help determine eligibility for this program, the U.S. Drought Monitor has developed a tool,

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/fsa/Home.aspx. The good news is that droughts don’t usually last long in Kentucky, but that doesn’t mean we can’t prepare for them. While infrequent, we have hit the Exceptional Drought category twice in Kentucky since 2000, in 2007-08 and in 2012. The publication “Drought Risk Management for Beef Cattle Farms” (http://www2.ca.uky. edu/agcomm/pubs/AEN/AEN130/AEN130. pdf) lays out a systems-management approach to prepare for drought and help minimize risk. Eight principles of drought preparedness are discussed, ranging from rotational grazing to the selection of drought resistant stock.

Better than Mud and Rain?

Sometimes I have to be reminded that drought isn’t always bad news. I was recently on a call discussing the agricultural impacts from the dry weather and one of the farmers reminded me that during the past two years, both the fall and winter seasons were extremely wet. Looking back at the data, September 2018 through March 2019 was the wettest September through March period going back to 1895! Cattle were under a tremendous amount of stress from the unrelenting rainfall and associated muddy conditions. As the producer mentioned to me, maybe we’re just not getting a headstart this year!

Matt Dixon is a meteorologist in the Ag Weather Center.

How Much Grain Do You Have Stored?

By Mike Montross, Ph.D., P.E. BAE Department Chair and Professor Food and Bioprocess Engineering

Grain handlers, processors, and farmers are frequently required to determine the inventory of corn, soybeans, wheat, and other products in various sized storage structures. This task is complex because granular products

compress when pressure is applied to them during filling. The material at the bottom of a storage bin will be compressed by the weight of the material above it, and this packing effect increases the capacity. Test weight, moisture content, bin dimensions, broken grain and foreign material, and other variables will change the packing value of stored grain.

Estimating the Bushels in a Bin