UK INVESTOR MONEY // SHARES // INTERVIEWS
ISSUE 23 // JUNE 2017
IN THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION IN A GENERATION
Who should you vote for?
PLUS • 3 resource stocks to buy • Send the Oxford slasher to jail • Where to emigrate if Labour wins
UK Investor Magazine — 1 — June 2017
Intro
From The Editor INSIDE 3 BT Group - Time to buy Chris Bailey 4 If Labour wins, to where do I emigrate? Tom Winnifrith 5 Is Andrew Sykes Group a buy? Steve Moore 7 Who to vote for - three views 12 Lavina Woodward should go to jail Tom Winnifrith 13 UK Investor Show special offer ends 14 June 15 London Bridge: We can’t carry on as normal Tom Winnifrith 16 Three resource shares to buy for June Gary Newman 18 The House View: Vote Tory
CONTACT US UK Investor Magazine 91 - 95 Clerkenwell Road London, EC1R 5BX E: info@ukinvestorshow.com W: www.UKInvestorShow.com EDITORIAL
This issue of UK Investor Show Magazine “hits the press” in an Internet sort of way half way between two major events in Britain: The London Bridge terror attack and the General Election. The former was a tragedy, the latter could be a disaster but we suspect that it will not be. I offer up some views on the terror attack on page 15. We are being told by the liberal media and the political elite that we must just go on a vigil, think of hate not love and not “look back in anger” because if we change our way of lives we will have lost of the evil jihadists. It strikes me that if what we are suffering now is “winning” then perhaps it is worth risking defeat by trying a different approach. For what it is worth I am angry. Aren’t you? From tragedy to the disaster which may happen on Thursday 8th June if Labour wins the General Election. In the interests of balance we have asked supporters of the two main parties and also a Lib Dem to explain why you should vote the same way as them on pages 7 to 11. But on page 18 we explain, in the House View, why, it would be a disaster for Britain if the result was anything other than a Tory win. It is hard to know which would be worse: Jeremy Corbyn leading a majority Labour Government or Comrade Corbyn as PM supported by the coalition of chaos. The Tories have run an appalling campaign and in normal circumstances would deserve to lose. But these are not normal circumstances so dreadful is the alternative. We believe that enough of our fellow citizens realise that and so predict that Mrs May will be returned to power with an increased majority of at least 50. We hope that we are correct and urge you all to vote Conservative on Thursday. Away from the election we also carry our usual selection of share tips and other features and so hope that there is something for everyone in this edition of UK Investor Show Magazine. Best wishes
Tom Winnifrith Editor
Tom Winnifrith Greece 6 June 2017
PS Remember that the one day event all those serious about shares must go to, UK Investor Show, will be on April 21 in 2018. Until June 14 ( yes just a few days away) you can buy tickets with a 50% discount at www.UKInvestorShow.com by using the promotional code HALFUK when booking. But hurry, time is running out on that offer! UK Investor Magazine — 2 — June 2017
BT Group - WIFI debacles, scandals and u-turns: got to be time to buy! By Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit
A
s the part of rural Wales I was staying in during a good chunk of the Bank Holiday weekend apparently is intermittently covered by the leading mobile network recently purchased by BT Group (BT.A), I had to return to England to surprisingly wax lyrical about the telecoms giant, as the dearth of WIFI forced me to buy an antiquated media device called a newspaper. Within its grubby pages I read that shock-style headline that ‘BT threatens fatal blow to final salary pensions’. Yes, the deficit has got so large at the telecoms behemoth that, like the rest of the private sector world (which it joined in that wonderful mid80s epoch), it is apparently seriously considering joining the defined contribution world where what you put in matters more than the comedy last salary an employee was last employed at. At one level it is testimony to BT’s strong cash flow generation capabilities as the leading broadband provider to the UK populace that it has managed to spin it out this long, whilst paying a dividend that is currently pushing above a 5% yield. But, given the desperate accounting scandal that has enveloped its Italian business and the slowdown in public sector contracts as well as the whole world simultaneously learning that - outside of rural Wales - a phone app or three can fulfill much of your core communications requirements for you, it is no surprise that the bloated pension liabilities are being reviewed.
Whilst the usual motley crew of interests has been rolled out to claim imminent poverty, in the real world it is sensible steps. Admittedly after the accounting scandals and public sector contract dullness, the BT management team looked at best hapless However, whisper it quietly but the strategy of mating broadband receipt direct debits with fixed line business, the football rights fee-busting BT Sport and as aforementioned a mobile phone network makes sense in a world of ‘quad play’ telecommunication requirements (fixed line, broadband, mobile, pay TV). Think of the administrative savings and network combination offers for starters. As with all ex-nationalised businesses, there is also a bit of residual nous in how to deal with government as showed through with the recent legal separation, but not aggressive spinning off, of Openreach, which looks after the plumbing of the BT network. Pulling it all together, if you throw in some easy comparisons, a 5%+ dividend yield it is covering and ongoing efficiency gains via deals recently struck, BT Group shares should be in the higher and not the lower 300s in my opinion. And in a world of mixed individual share value in today’s stock markets, that’s enough to make them one of my favoured FTSE-100 buys currently. Now all it needs to do is ramp up the WIFI capabilities in various parts of rural Wales in time for my summer break...
Chris Bailey is the editor of Financial Orbit
UK Investor Magazine — 3 — June 2017
If Labour wins where do I emigrate to? (The Idiocy of Corbyn’s Tax plans)
Writes Tom Winnifrith
I
f you are an entrepreneur whose business makes a profit then having risked your capital and sweated blood to create such a profit is it not right that you get to spend those profits? Of course it is. 70% of businesses starting today will go bust within the next five years. That is the risk so you need a reward. If there is no reward why would anyone start a business? Reduce the reward fewer folks will take the risk. It’s so simple even Jeremy Corbyn should get it. But he does not. That and the mobility of business is something Labour just does not understand. Right now £100 of profit is taxed at 19% and if the £81 is paid out as a dividend it is taxed at another 25% so for every £100 of profit the taxman grabs £39.25 and the risk taker gets £60.75. That is more tax efficient than taking the £100 out as a bonus and facing a PAYE bill on it. If Jeremy Corbyn enters No 10 he will hike the corporation tax rate to 26%. I bet he will increase taxes on dividends too but let’s be generous and say that he resists the urge to “soak the rich.” Even so the taxman then grabs a total of £44.50 leaving the entrepreneur with just £55.50. What Corbyn and his shadow chancellor, the self proclaimed Marxist, “Semtex” John McDonnell fail to grasp is that many businesses
can move. In the 1970s under high tax Labour lots of folks did just that but today it is far easier to up sticks. I am in Greece for long periods and it makes no difference at all to the way I do business. Relocating to a Greek Island with a population of less than 3,100 would see me facing a Corporation tax bill of 19% and a tax on dividends of 15%. So I get to keep £68.85 while the Greek taxman gets £31.15 and Jeremy Corbyn’s Britain gets nothing at all. But there is an option far closer to home Ireland where corporation tax is just 12.5% and dividends are taxed at 20%. So head to “The Old Country” and suddenly I am keeping £70, the Irish taxman gets £30 and once again Jeremy Corbyn’s Britain gets nothing at all. If you have real money you can head off to Monaco or Andorra and pay sod all tax but you don’t need real money or to be making vast profits to consider a move to Ireland. That is what folks like Corbyn and his Guardian reading supporters just do not understand. Since none of them have ever risked a cent to start their own business they fail to grasp that it is not only about the money for we entrepreneurs , it is about the idea of risk reward and anger with the idea that the State just views as a source of cash that can be tapped at will. We entrepreneurs are not fat cats to be
UK Investor Magazine — 4 — June 2017
abused , we are the folk that take risks to create jobs and generate taxes for the Government to piss away. If Labour wins the General Election on June 8th, one reason why its sums just do not add up is that material numbers of high earners and mobile businesses will simply quit Britain and it is those folks who currently the largest contributors to the exchequer. We are the golden geese who Jeremy Corbyn threatens to put to flight. Ireland or a Greek island? It is a hard call. The Mrs - being a card carrying member of the Labour party - is rather looking forward to bumper pay
rises for her and her fellow public sector workers in Corbyn’s Britain. But I am not sure she has worked out how much better off we would be in Ireland or on that Greek Island than in a Labour run Britain. And in the end when, like all socialist Governments, Team Corbyn runs out of other people’s money they will be forced by the IMF - as was Healey in 1976 - to take an axe to a bloated public sector wage bill. At that point, the Mrs might just thank me for that dividend stuffed bolt hole I established in Co Donegal or somewhere in the Aegean.
This article first appeared on www.TomWinnifrith.com
Sponsor Ed Croft’s sore backside as he raises cash for an unfashionable charity By Tom Winnifrith UK Investor headline speaker Ed Croft of Stockopedia will have a sore backside by mid June but this is nothing to do with the sort of thing that Tim Farron either disapproves of strongly or accepts as perfectly normal depending on which day of the week it is. Ed is doing a 300 km bike ride to raise cash for a charity that is working to tackle Duchenne Muscular Dystrophe. This is a rare disease so not a lot of folks care about it. There are just 2,500 kids with it in the UK - all boys. Ed knows one of them hence his interest. Sadly, right now, the disease is fatal and without any cure at all and research is badly underfunded. I loathe big charities who pay Guardian reading tossers vast sums to waste cash like there is no tomorrow when not going on Radio 4 to berate the wicked Tories, Donald Trump or evil capitalists and which raise vast sums from endorsements from virtue signalling celebs. But I do support small effective charities so have made a small donation myself in support of Ed. I hope that some readers will follow suit and if you are minded to do so you can donate HERE
Hot Stock
ROCKETS Stocks Ready to take off hotstockrockets.com UK Investor Magazine — 5 — June 2017
company profile andrew sykes group Continuing to pump out strong results & dividends By Steve Moore
M
ay saw results for the 2016 calendar year from Andrews Sykes Group (ASY) - they emphasising “the board is once again proposing a further final dividend payment amounting to £5.0 million” and “our business remains strong, cash generative and well developed, with positive net funds. The board is therefore cautiously optimistic for further success in 2017”… The group provides mainly rental of pumping equipment (‘Sykes Pumps’) and specialist climate control products (‘Andrews’ branded), including air conditioning and chillers, heaters and boilers, dehumidifiers and ventilation. It also provides equipment for sale with a full service and repair backup and has a specialist air conditioning installation, service and maintenance subsidiary in the UK (Andrews Air Conditioning & Refrigeration). Having been established in the UK since 1857, the group is now international – with those latest results showing the UK 63.9% of reported revenue, Europe 18.5% and the Middle East 17.6%. The results also showed an overall £3.7 million increased profit from 2015, of £14.5 million (on revenue up 8.9% at £65.4 million). The stated 2016 profit did though benefit from “a foreign exchange gain arising on the retranslation of inter-company balances of £1.6 million”. After also particularly £10.1 million of equity dividends paid, net cash increased by £3.1 million to £17.7 million. Current assets over liabilities increased by £3.3 million to £26.2 million. The company added it’s “always being mindful of the favourable or adverse impact that the weather
can have on our business”, but that the “result further demonstrates that with a diverse product range we are able to return a strong performance despite the absence of any significant extreme weather conditions”. The shares were added to the Income portfolio of the subscription Nifty Fifty website in November at a 380p offer price – and are currently at 475p, capitalising the company at just over £200 million. The retained final dividend takes the per share total for the year to an also unchanged 23.8p, and there looks to still be income value here the shares currently remaining in the Nifty Fifty Income portfolio.
Management Managing Director Paul Wood is an industry specialist having joined the group in 1978, before being appointed Director of Operations in early 2006 and Managing Director later that year. He has 7,945 shares in the company. Family investment vehicle EOI Sykes Sarl has a majority shareholding.
UK Investor Magazine — 6 — June 2017
So who should you vote for in the General Election? We asked an AIM CEO (Andrew Bell), a ShareProphets reader (Jonathan Price) and a mad left wing dreamer, aka our own Darren Atwater to explain why you should vote Tory, Lib Dem or Monster raving Labour Party in the election. Over to the enthusiasts:
Darren Atwater is voting Labour and writes: The main reason that I am voting Labour is that I want the economy to grow and prosper. I have known some true British people, so British that if you cut them they’d bleed Victoria sponge, who are wistful for the Great Britain of their childhoods. Those days before every high street in the UK had the same stores as every other country, with goods that every other country has, and the shows in the cinema and the telly weren’t American and the music was good ol’ Britpop. (Or classical - whatever floats your boat.) Unfailingly, these rememberers of times past are pro-Margaret Thatcher. “She made the hard decisions that had to be made.” She also destroyed whatever Britain was and created what we have today. I would have loved to see that Britain that you remember—but the first time I ever set foot in this country was 1999. It was all gone by then. Morons argue that the government should run UK Investor Magazine — 7 — June 2017
like a household and live like annual taxes are the equivalent of an annual wage. Which is a great argument if your household members can print their own wages, buy nuclear weapons, and will never, ever die. A better metaphor, if you’re the type that doesn’t think a government should be run like a government, is that a government is like a bank. It can put money out there to create positive acts, it can call in loans to reel in enthusiasm, and it’s generally closed on a Sunday and Bank Holidays. Private capital doesn’t put high speed Internet to every single home in the country. If it did, we’d already have it. Private capital doesn’t provide quality health care to every citizen, although it does like cashing the cheques from the NHS. Private capital doesn’t give everyone who wishes it a university education, although they do ensure that their own children get one. For a 21st century economy to thrive, we need high quality education to the university level, we need people to be in good health, and we need great infrastructure. Labour is going to do that.* highlights from its manifesto:
Here are a few
High speed Internet for everyone, free wifi in the cities and on public transport. Oh, you think that the future of the economy is not on the Internet? Good luck in your investments, CloudTag holder. Rail across the UK will be electrified, and Crossrail 2, Electric Boogaloo, will be started. Renewable energy sources will be funded, which again is absolutely necessary unless you think that oil has a future. The private sector has already spoken: it’s electric cars, solar roofs, and windmills from here on in. In hindsight, the subsidies to oil companies and the cost of keeping the oil flowing from the middle east is going to seem as crazy as the Beeching Report. In fact, the manifesto says that the UK will put £250 billion into infrastructure over ten years, which should put the old economic mixmaster on fire. Anyone who lives in London loves the tubes and buses run by Transport for London (although, if asked, we’ll say we hate it) but we know how well they are run compared to the private railways. They are all terrible. Yet, the few times in the past decade where the Department of Transport has run the trains directly due to franchisee bankruptcy or general incompetence, the routes have made money. German, French, and Dutch state railways all run UK rail franchises to subsidise their own passengers fares. Viddy this: Northern Ireland railways are owned
by the province and make a profit. ScotRail, farmed out to Dutch State Railways, sends £1 million a month in profits to the tulip growers. Labour will take each franchise back into pubic ownership as each franchise comes up for renewal, at no cost, and we’ll once again have a unified system. And by we, I mean you, because I never saw such a thing in my lifetime. They will also create a publicly owned utility company as a stalking horse against rapacious energy companies. This is a sensible and cost effective thing to do, and as such, has obviously never been tried by any previous government. I won’t deal with the NHS, because you already know that Labour will run it properly and largely drama free. Secretly, you were already kind of scared about what the Tories are doing with it. Not you personally, of course, you have Bupa or something, but your snowboarding-champwannabee son and your daughter with her degree in macrame-and-folk-art (Oxon), what will they do? Really, what are you going to do about them? The Tories will say they need to work - but what useful skill do they have? Labour will at least not sell them for pet food like some political parties I could mention. Labour promises that the day-to-day business of government and entitlements will be paid completely by taxes and the like: no borrowing. Borrowing will only be for infrastructure investments, which is reasonable and good policy. And centre-left politicians would never, ever overspend when they make a promise like that. Former prime ministers Brown and Blair agree, a Labour promise means something. What it comes down to is: do you think the past seven years have set this country on the road for the future, or do you believe that major investments in the Internet, railways, renewable energy, the NHS, and education is what it will take? I believe it’s the latter, and I want to a vote for a party that is cohesive, supported by the nation, and has the competence to carry out its agenda. That means that I support the Scottish National Party. But since I can’t vote for them here in England, I’m voting Labour. * Fine. They promise this. Who knows what will actually happen.
Jonathan Price is voting Liberal Democrat and writes: For LibDems
there is only one issue in this election, Brexit. It’s not that other issues like the NHS, social care or defence are not important, it’s just that they pale into insignificance compared to the impact of
UK Investor Magazine — 8 — June 2017
up by the world’s most experienced team of treaty negotiating civil servants, neither of which is true, he would struggle to replace even half of these in ten years, let alone two. The worst part of the situation is that the government appears to have no clue how to deal with all these difficult issues and, in many cases, doesn’t even seem to understand what the issues are, as though a refusal to recognise them will somehow make them go away. When Tory politicians are pressed on matters such as free trade, all they say is, “It’s in no one’s interest for there to be tariffs on car parts (or whatever the subject is).” That would be a fair point of view if the Germans and the French were saying the same thing, but they aren’t. You never see those words used by anyone other than an English Tory.
Brexit. Brexit messes up almost everything. Tom Winnifrith calls those of us, like me, who refuse to accept the Referendum result, Remoaners, but we resist not because we are sore at the result - elections are like football matches, you win some, you lose some, and life goes on - but because we see Brexit causing immense damage to our economy everywhere we turn. I could give you a list of problem areas as long as David Davis’s famous 100 pages, but I know Tom wouldn’t allow me, so I will mention just two, drawn more or less at random. The first is open skies. Low cost, no frills flying was invented in the USA (or maybe in the UK if you count Freddie Laker) but the art was perfected in Europe by Ryanair, which despite being Irish, is in fact based in the UK. Ryanair’s rise to the no.1 slot was made possible by the EU’s work over 25 years to create a single aviation market in Europe, which allows Ryanair and its competitors to fly wherever they like. When we leave the EU, we leave the single aviation market and those hard won rights disappear for UK based airlines. The Brexitwits will no doubt point out that the Prime Minister has said she will incorporate all EU law into domestic law in the Great Repeal Bill, but this will not help, as membership of the single aviation market involves accepting the jurisdiction of the ECJ. The Swiss have swallowed this, but it seems to be a deal killer for the Brexitwits, so no cheap flights to Spain for them! Number two is Trade Agreements and Other Treaties On the 31st March, the FT published a list of 759 treaties that it says will have to be re-negotiated by the UK when we leave the EU. Even if Dr Liam Fox were the world’s best treaty negotiator, backed
So my suggestion to all Brexitwits is this, next time you get divorced, try saying to the ex wife, “It’s in no one’s interest, dear, for us to fight over the car/kids/house/pension” and see how far that gets you. Successful Brexit is an oxymoron and however big the Tory majority is won’t change that. The only way to get that message across is to vote Liberal Democrat.
Finally Andrew Bell is voting Conservative and writes: The voting
decision in 2017 should be one of the easiest you have ever made. The Lib Dems have talked themselves into irrelevance, while the other two Parties are as far apart as they have ever been. The Labour leadership has a socialist and internationalist vision, respecting Marx, admiring Chavez, and determined to bring the trade unions into a dominant role in society. The Conservative
UK Investor Magazine — 9 — June 2017
annual amount by which the Debt was increasing – hit £154 billion in 2009 and £144 billion in 2010, and that a panicked Labour in its 2010 promised to reduce that number (the annual increase) by half within four years by austerity and restricted spending, with no guarantee even to match inflation for education funding. In the same year the Conservative promise was to eliminate ‘the bulk’ of the annual deficit within 5 years: in the event the Coalition Government achieved the Labour promise (though not their own), reducing the annual deficit to £80 billion by 2015.
leadership has moved to occupy the abandoned ground, edging towards a more centrist and populist position, and to attracting the patriotic working men and women abandoned by a Londondominated Labour. That there even appears to be a contest is a tribute to those who have managed to sugar-coat the Labour manifesto with enough superficially attractive elements to disguise the radicalism that lurks within. The £50 billion a year giveaway includes no tuition fees (for the youth vote), triple pension lock and more social care funding (for the pensioner vote), more childcare cash (for the parent vote), more cash for the NHS and Education to ‘end austerity’, renationalisation and control of utility bills to offer the prospect of lower bills through the door, and all (except the renationalisation which apparently costs nothing) paid for by companies and ‘the rich’. And as an afterthought £25 billion+ a year of borrowing for infrastructure investment. All credit to them for the presentation. It makes it all seem so easy. It is perhaps no surprise that 18 year olds, offered a release from tuition fees and confronted daily on television with heart-rending stories about schools forced to consider laying off teachers and nurses eating from food banks, are particularly impressed by the kind-hearted solutions Labour offers. But they were only 9 years old at the time of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. They do not know that all parties stood for austerity in 2010 because there was no alternative. They do not know that it is only as a result of Coalition and Conservative policies since then that anyone can even contemplate increased spending today. They do not know that Gordon Brown, obsessed with his desire for an uncontested ascent to the Labour leadership, had ignored all warnings of an overheated economy and as a result we had been very badly hit by the GFC, with National Debt rising from £0.5 trillion, or 38% of GDP, in 2005 to £1 trillion in 2011 just after the Conservatives took over. They do not know that the deficit – the
And they do not know that as a result of the policies carried out since 2010, although the National Debt continues to creep up, reaching £1.5 trillion in 2015-16 and over 85% of GDP, and now http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/ , the rate of annual increase has in fact slowed to a likely £52bn deficit in 2017, so that it has been brought down from 9.9% of GDP to 2.6%, and there is at least the prospect that our National Debt to GDP ratio will start to sink towards 80% as a first step to restoring long-term solvency. This was done while increasing foreign aid, energy and climate change, and health budgets in real terms in the 2010-17 period, while only marginally cutting education (mainly through freezing most capital spending), so that all other budgets suffered significant real term cuts. It was thus done without the dramatic surgery of, for example, Ireland during the same period, where in 2008-2014 public sector staffing was cut by 10% and health spending by 27%, and public sector capital investment by 60%. What we had, backed essentially by all political parties both in 2010 and even in 2015, was at worst Austerity Lite, and the current £52 billion annual deficit is not now scheduled to be eliminated until the mid-2020s, allowing the Conservatives to promise an increase of £12 billion in health and school spending in the next parliament. The Labour Manifesto in 2017 is the first crack in the wall of a hitherto united consensus for reducing our still dangerous debt to GDP ratio. Labour plans to tax and spend about an extra £50 billion each year. Their numbers are flawed, and a careful reading of the IFS analysis shows that the shortfall in that equation must be £12 billion or more each year. That number must be added to the annual £52 billion deficit. So must the cost of the submarine wish list that most of us suspect Labour is hiding and will add to costs should they come to Government. So must some or all of the up to £25 billion a year that will be sourced for ‘investment’. So, surely, must the direct and indirect costs of nationalisation, which will rise over time (water and rail were denationalised partly because decades of underinvestment under State control had created
UK Investor Magazine — 10 — June 2017
so acute a crisis). The notion that all Labour’s plans can be funded by taxing companies and the richest 4% (who already provide 40% of income tax revenues) is of course absurd. Companies will react to a change from a 19% actual (and 17% planned) tax rate to 26% under Labour by behavioural changes. Individuals will do the same. When we are leaving the EU and Single Market, and when the US is planning to reduce its corporate taxes from 35% to 15%, a move to make the UK so much less attractive as a tax jurisdiction seems spectacularly ill-timed. The last time Labour had the illusion the rich could pay for everything was in the pre-Blair late 1970s, with a 83% top rate of income tax and then an investment income (ie dividends, interest and rents) surcharge of 15% on top, making 98%. We all know where that ended up: cap in hand to the IMF, and then the Winter of Discontent, when the dead were stored unburied in factories and warehouses. So far we have only considered the Labour Manifesto. When one looks at the top team that would implement it, the true gravity of the danger a 2017 Corbyn Administration would pose appears. None of Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott, or their key advisers, have any economic background better than a loose Marxism, instincts other than free spending on favoured causes, or disciplines inculcated by any previous responsibilities or training. In the case of McDonnell, it is considerably worse. He is a hardline Marxist who has written on economics sufficiently to show that he conceives of capital allowances, North Sea ring fences, R&D allowances, small company rates and other corporation tax reliefs, and naturally any personal tax concessions, as unjustified subsidies to the capitalist class. The damage he would do to industry is incalculable, even before one starts to consider the powers he would give the unions. In other areas, Labour is equally unreliable. Corbyn now presents his standing in silence for the killed IRA terrorists on their way to murder policemen as him mourning all victims. What he said at the time was “I’m happy to commemorate all those who died fighting for an independent Ireland”. Fighting? And him such a pacifist, too! But he is not as red in tooth and claw as McDonnell, who has always made clear he revels in insurrection and struggle. Those praying for a Labour defeat include many Labour politicians. Most MPs voted against Corbyn becoming leader, and most voted more recently to remove him. They know how incompetent, dangerous, and disastrous he would be, and hope for a result that will unseat him (though one where they personally retain their seats). They know his true policy positions, and how well placed he will
be to impose them should he win. Trust them; they know his mind and his soul better than the most enthusiastic student. If the danger of Corbyn’s Labour is a great consideration, so is the record of competence and economic management of the current Government and its predecessor. There are two great issues before us: restoring our National Finances after the explosion of debt that followed the GFC, and handling Brexit. If we wish to put the young in debt to ourselves, we will handle these with the resolution and vigour that will leave the foundations of a strong economy, and a representative, free, and responsible democracy for them to build on. Only the Conservatives can be trusted with the economy. And with the Brexit negotiations before us, this is no time to take risks with our financial stability. Only the Conservatives can be trusted with the Brexit negotiations. Labour’s position, as with the Nuclear deterrent, is to adopt a policy so open and so pacific that it might as well surrender in advance. To state that any deal is better than no deal is to adopt the same failed negotiating tactic that Cameron did: but if his inability to walk away was easy to guess and was successfully gamed by the other side, in Corbyn’s case he has been considerate enough to make it explicit. His ineptitude and lack of preparation however is so great that even were he determined to negotiate hard and achieve a successful outcome, there is no basis for supposing he could do it. The Conservatives need a clear majority to negotiate strongly with the EU, and to disabuse them of the notion that by using back-channels and playing for time they can erode the Prime Minister’s authority and majority at home and so weaken her negotiating hand. Only in that way is there any prospect of a mutually acceptable outcome. Even many who voted last year to Remain appear to accept that. Finally, the long-term cohesion of society requires that we take notice of our fellow-citizens who have made clear that by a large majority they want immigration controlled, and to live in security without the threat of terrorism, and who want to feel that wherever they live and whatever their social views their incomes and futures, and that of their children, will be as much a priority as those of the inhabitants of West or North London. The Conservatives give more sign of understanding this than any other Party. We must do our duty on Thursday; we must vote to strengthen and renew this Government. Vote Conservative.
UK Investor Magazine — 11 — June 2017
Spoiled Oxford University brat Lavinia Woodward should go to jail - one law for the rich.... Writes Tom Winnifrith
L
avinia Woodward attends Christ Church the Oxford College known as “the House”. 17 Prime Ministers went there, it is the college of of the privileged elite. It goes without saying that like Evelyn Waugh I was rejected by the House and, like Waugh, ended up at downmarket Hertford. The House is for the blue bloods not great writers. Lavinia picked up her boyfriend on the casual sex app Tinder, then while off her head on drugs assaulted him, throwing a laptop and other objects in his direction before stabbing him in the leg with a bread knife. Jail beckons surely? Er...no. Let us imagine that the person in the dock was some chav from Oxford’s worst estates at Blackbird Leys. Like Lavinia she is 24 and off her head on alcohol and drugs when she stabs her boyfriend. The chav did not attend a £16,000 a year school before going to Oxford but a sink comprehensive in the Leys. Claiming that she has had a past abusive relationship - as Lavinia did - would cut no ice with the judge. There would be no question at all, that pleb would be heading for the slammer. So what if she gets to access even more drugs there. So what if it harms her chances of getting a job at Tesco. The crime merits time. But luckily for Lavinia, Judge Ian Pringle worries that sending her down may damage her
chances of becoming a surgeon. So he says he is considering no sentence. While I can see that Lavinia has some skills with the knife, if I am to be operated on I’d rather it was not by a bird who likes taking vast amounts of booze and drugs and assaulting men she has picked up on tinder. Brain dead elitist judge Pringle stated: To prevent this extraordinary, able young lady from following her long-held desire to enter the profession she wishes to, would be a sentence which would be too severe, No judge Pringle you are wrong. Getting into Oxford does not make you extraordinary. Most folks there are clever but not Einsteins. The ,medical profession will stagger on without the admission of posh Lavinia to its ranks and crime must go punished. Judge Pringle would send the chav from Blackbird Leys down without hesitation and would probably lecture the tearful wretch as she stood quivering in the dock about how she is an idiot and must pay for her sins to send a message to society. This is the 21st Century. It cannot be one law for the privileged elite and one for the great unwashed. Lavinia must go to jail and judge Pringle should be fired for being an elitist, out of touch old coot.
This article first appeared on www.TomWinnifrith.com
UK Investor Magazine — 12 — June 2017
Three BIG NAME new speakers for UK Investor 2018 - Book a 50% discounted seat for UK Investor and get a very special book worth £12.99 Offer ends June 14
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ou have probably heard about the massive success that was the UK Investor Show 2017. many of you will have be among the more than 3,000 investors who descended on London on April 1 2017 and it it is now universally recognised as the dominant one day event for men and women who want to make money from shares. Now what is in store for 2018? The Global Group UK Investor Show 2018 just got massively bigger. In what will be the 16th show organised by the team, we have secured our biggest and best ever main stage line-up. Of course the stars of 2017 are all coming back: Mark Slater, Nigel Wray, Paul Scott, Jonny Hon, David Lenigas. Tom Winnifrith, Lucian Miers, Vin Murria, Matt Earl, Chris Bailey, Dominic Frisby et al. But there are new big name speakers joining the main stage lineup. We start with Nick Leslau, the secret millionaire and legendary property investor. Will the housing market have
imploded by then? Is commercial property a busted flush? Nick is the man with all the answers. And then there is the founder of Pizza Express, Giraffe and acerbic Sunday Time columnist Luke Johnson who will also be doing a special breakout room session. And then there is Ed Croft the genius behind Stockopedia - the man who shows how using stock screens and data can make you a better investor. We are selling half priced tickets for the show until June 14. That means £6 for an investor class seat and £45 for a golden ticket (which gets you access to the after show drinks, guaranteed front row seats and a ticket to the Saracens cabaret featuring Luke Johnson in conversation with Nigel Wray, Private Eye’s Chris Booker and Dominic Frisby the comedian). Prices go up after June 14 but for
UK Investor Magazine — 13 — June 2017
now you can get a half priced seat by using the promotional code HALFUK when booking at www.ukinvestorshow.com In terms of the companies attending... well we are still almost a year away. in 2017 there were 123 stands. In 2018 we have made room for 135 stands and already many companies from 2017 have committed to coming back including Petropavlovsk, Skinbiotherapeutics, Ariana Resources, Optibiotix, Orogen Gold, Red Rock Resources, Alliance Pharma, Amryt Pharma, Powerhouse Energy, Kefi Minerals and Regency Mines... the list grows by the day.... as things stand we have more than 70 of the 135 stands booked in already and that list grows daily as you can see at www.ukinvestorshow.com
£12.99 from 21 April 2018. But if you buy a ticket to the show you will be given a free copy. Buy a golden ticket and it will be autographed by the key speakers. UK Investor Show is now clearly the dominant one day event for those who want to make money from shares. And with our new big name speakers it just got better still. we hope the date is in your diary already so to get your copy of this limited edition one off book, get your half priced seat now. Just go to www.ukinvestorshow.com and use the promotional code HALFUK when booking your seats.
And there are also new breakout session including a panel lead by Adam Reynolds on making money from biotech and small pharma. The Big question is why book your ticket for April 21 2018 now? There are TWO Compelling reasons 1. We are selling half priced tickets until June 14. That means £6 for an investor class seat and £45 for a golden ticket (which gets you access to the after show drinks, guaranteed front row seats and a ticket to the Saracens cabaret featuring Luke Johnson in conversation with Nigel Wray, Private Eye’s Chris Booker and Dominic Frisby the comedian). Prices go up after June 14 but for now you can get a half priced seat by using the promotional code HALFUK when booking at www.ukinvestorshow.com 2. There is the book. Next April we will publish a book “ The 21 top investment ideas of the UK Investor gurus.” Every main stage and big name speaker from Nigel Wrayvia Dave Lenigas and Adam Reynolds down to Darren Atwater will contribute 600 words on the most important lesson he or she has learned from investing. This is a VERY limited edition print run but while stocks last you will be able to buy the book at UK Investor Magazine — 14 — June 2017
London Bridge: They DON’T Hate our way of life, they DON’T hate democracy and we CAN’T carry on Writes Tom Winnifrith
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do not know why the pathetic liberal media, led by the taxpayer funded BBC, are bothering to interview London’s useless Mayor Sadiq Khan, his hapless Mancunian counterpart Andy Burnham, stockmarket spiv turned home secretary Amber Rudd or any of the other members of the political elite after the London Bridge attack. They are all saying the same as they did after Manchester. They were lying then. They lie today. There are three big lies. The islamofascist murderers hate our way of life? No they don’t they love it. They get to live in Britain, often on benefits or in the case of the Manchester killer a student loan. They get to go on holiday to Syria or Libya and watch a few beheadings and learn how to make a bomb and then come back unmolested. They get to go to radical Mosques where hate clerics spew poison. And then when the time is right they go and kill some of us. What’s not to like about that? The Islamofascist murderers hate democracy? Actually they don’t really care who wins on Thursday. One suspects that Jeremy Corbyn who opposes shoot to kill and wants to talk to them would be their favoured PM but they are not motivated by trying to overthrow democracy, they just want to kill us. We will show how strong we are by carrying on as normal? Really. After 22 folks in Manchester stopped carrying on as normal, the political
classes and media elite insisted that we Brits would all carry on as normal. Now six Londoners won’t be carrying on as normal. And you know what, before too long there will be another outrage and more innocent fellow citizens won’t be carrying on as normal either. The media want us to believe that the nation is made up of people who are this morning lighting candles. They refer to social media where stacks of Godless liberals ,who regard those of us with a Christian faith as old world losers, are busily tweeting #PrayforLondon. They will tell us that as a nation we are not angry but defiant and that communities are being brought together. This is just not how most of us feel. Carrying on as normal doesn’t work. We have 3,000 ISIS fanatics in the UK who the authorities admit are committed to jihad and following the Islamic State. Fine. They should lose their rights to British citizenship. Round them up. Send them to Raqqa and pray that Russian missiles take them out. Moslem leaders who insist that these butchers are not real Moslems can surely have no objection to this. Do you? But will any of this be said by the talking heads in the media? Of course not. The media and political elite in Britain live comfortable lives increasingly remote from the rest of us. On this issue as on so many others they are simply out of touch and quite simply lying to us all.
This article first appeared on www.TomWinnifrith.com
UK Investor Magazine — 15 — June 2017
Three resource shares to buy for June Writes Gary Newman
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ommodities have continued to show high degrees of volatility in many cases and I believe that will continue for the foreseeable future, as they seem to be over-reacting to both positive and negative news, which is causing large swings. This is making it harder for people to make money from investing at the moment, as opposed to trading, but there are still plenty of opportunities to buy shares in companies in this sector on the dips, and to hold longer term. Tullow Oil (TLW) has had its share of problems in recent times due to its high levels of debt, but with the price back in the low 170p range, and a market cap of around £2.4 billion, I can see potential upside from here in years to come. Those debt concerns were eased by the successful completion of a $750 million rights issue a couple of months back, alongside the extension of the maturity of its revolving credit facility. Net debt still stands at over $4.5 billion, although the company now has plenty of headroom to be going on with. A lot of this debt has been caused by investment to bring projects online, so as long as oil prices are higher on average over the lifespan of those fields, then the company should still do well, even if it isn’t exactly raking in the cash at the moment. Production looks set to remain strong, with over 85kbopd from its West African assets, and a further 6,300boepd from the European gas assets, during the first quarter of 2017 and this is inline with expectations. The company is looking to continue investing in bringing new projects online, as well as exploration work to replace depleted reserves moving forwards, and as long as it doesn’t get itself into further financial difficulties this looks like a sensible move. It has also continued to give itself some degree of buffer against oil price volatility in the shorter
term with over 42,000bopd hedged at an average price of a little over $60 per barrel throughout 2017, although that does drop to $51.5 per barrel for 26,000 barrels in 2018. This one is a pretty direct gamble on the price of oil in the future and the share price will largely be affected by what the commodity price does, barring any unforeseen disasters, but given the recent share price action, I’d be happy to buy at the current level. Gold has continued to show strength, and with current world events that should carry on, which will benefit those companies which mine and trade the metal. I’ve previously covered some of my favourites amongst the larger market cap stocks, but there is also potential at the other end of the scale, including one of my ‘Dragons Den’ picks from the UK Investor Show in April, Wishbone Gold (WSBN). So far it hasn’t set the world alight and is trading at a similar level as it was back in early April, at around 0.9p to buy, and although riskier than the larger companies, I can see potential from here. Given the size of the company – around a £10 million market cap - and the stage at which its four exploration licences in Australia are at, it is hard to get too excited about those, as even were they to prove to be any good, the benefits from them are still a long way off. What interests me far more though is the gold trading side of the business following the acquisition of UAE-based Precious Minerals International (PMI), along with its subsidiary Black Sand FZE, last year. Black Sand has supply agreements in place for both precious metals and gems with a number of countries, including Peru, Ghana, Chile and Colombia. Given the amount of gold which moves through the UAE, and Dubai in particular, there is plenty of potential here, even if the company is just making a small percentage on every ounce of gold traded. The most recent trading update for
UK Investor Magazine — 16 — June 2017
the end of 2016 showed that it was exceeding 25kg of gold per week, although supply problems meant that it missed its target of 100kg per week. It is hard to get an idea of where it is financially as the last accounts were only up to the end of June 2016, and results for the full year 2016 are due out any time now, but in the past it hasn’t burnt through large amounts of cash and now has a steady source of income. You could argue that the best thing would be to wait until the next set of financials are out in order to get a better idea of where the company is at, but given its size, and how well gold is performing, if those results are good then you may well end up paying a fair bit more for your shares. Eurasia Mining (EUA) has been a favourite of mine amongst the smaller AIM companies within this sector, but so far has been disappointing, with its West Kytlim operation in Russia producing less income, net to the company, than I had originally expected - as a result of the financing deal to bring it online. This hasn’t been helped by platinum prices
weakening, but longer term I can still see potential and all eyes are now turning towards its 80% owned Monchetundra project following the recent maiden reserves announcement, which has come quicker than had been expected. That showed proven and probable reserves of some 555kg, but with lots of upside from the circa 44,000kg of palladium equivalent resources, net to the company. There is still plenty of work to be done before any platinum group metals and gold are actually mined at Monchetundra, but for a company the size of Eurasia there is still huge upside from this project, if and when it finally comes online. It now has funding for the working capital needed for its operations during the rest of this year, and although there is a large amount of convertible debt here, as long as it continues to make operational progress then that shouldn’t adversely affect the company. There will be more dilution to come, and a lot comes down to how good future financing deals are, but the current market cap of £8.5 million reflects that risk, and at 0.6p to buy I don’t see it as over-priced currently. Liquidity tends to be low in this share and you tend to get wild swings up, and then back down, as good news lands and is followed be a sell-off from those trading it. But as long as you are buying on the dips, ideally as close to 0.5p as possible, then the downside should be limited barring any bad
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newsletters.advfn.com/tomwinnifrith UK Investor Magazine — 17 — June 2017
the house view The only sensible vote on June 8 is Tory
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here is a case for not bothering to vote at all. All four main parties ( we include the SNP and, very charitably, the Lib Dems) are committed to running unfunded budget deficits up to at least 2025. None of them are prepared to make the tough choices a nation with an aging population and a gaping budget deficit needs to make. In that sense all of the politicians are being dishonest with the electorate. So what’s new? But in reality this is a straight choice. On Friday we will either have a Tory Government or a coalition of chaos led by Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour. Parties like the Greens, Plaid Cymru, the SNP and IRA/Sinn Fein share Mr Corbyn’s commitment to utterly unfunded Money Tree backed economics and so will be no check on his economically destructive manifesto in such a coalition. Under the Tories, Britain will go bust slowly but perhaps with a large enough majority, the party which once believed in a small state and allowing taxpayers to keep as much of their hard earned dosh as possible, might just make the tough decisions that will have to be made sooner or later. Under the coalition of chaos the spendathon will start on day one, there will be a run on the pound, base rates will go up and - in the end - as always happens with Socialist Governments they will run out of other people’s money. The other people referred to here, by the way, are you and we, the hard pressed taxpayer. And then there is Brexit. We, the people,voted for it. Polls show that not only do the Brexiteers want to leave the EU but now a majority of those who - like Theresa May, voted to stay now want out. Only 22% of the electorate are remoaners. But Labour and the other potential CoC parties are dominated by remoaners. Their negotiating position is that a bad deal is better than no deal and if you start talks on that basis you are certain to get an extraordinarily bad deal since you have no plan B. Quite simply, the only party that can be trusted to deliver the best possible result on Brexit is the Conservatives. There is also the human factor. Before you cast your vote just ask if you want the three most powerful people in the Country as of Friday to be the terrorists’ pals Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott and Semtex John McDonnell. The Tory front bench are no Titans and indeed are so unimpressive that one almost yearns for a return of the pathetic Call Me Dave Cameron. But then look at the alternative. There is really no choice. We urge you to vote Conservative.
UK Investor Magazine — 18 — June 2017
Saturday 21st April 2018 | London Save the date!
UK Investor Magazine — 19 — June 2017