1.4 National development context

This section summarizes the external context within which the country programme was implemented, highlighting changes since the last independent evaluation in 2011.

With a population of about 212 million (in 2020),9 Brazil is the sixth most populous and the fifth largest country in the world, occupying half of South America.10 With a federal presidential representative democratic republic system of government covering a large area and diverse population, Brazil faces constant development, political and governance challenges.

Brazil’s political and socio-economic scenario has changed since the last independent evaluation. In 2011, the economy was steadily growing. Brazil experienced a decade of economic and social progress between 2002 and 2013, boosted by rising commodity prices and inclusive socio-economic policies.11 About 26 million people were lifted out of poverty.12 This progress was interrupted by a recession in 2014-2016, and faced with a slow recovery and the COVID-19 pandemic, Brazil ended 2020 with one of the poorest economic performances in recent history. Brazil has been hard hit by COVID-19, with over 272,000 deaths and 11 million confirmed cases (10 March 2021).13

Prior to COVID-19, the country was assessed as being on track to achieve some of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), though it still lagged on others (Table 1). Good progress has been made on the targets for quality education, clean water and sanitation, energy, climate action and partnerships. However, several of the goals (ending poverty; economic growth; industry; life below water; life on land; and peace) will need attention. Note that the data used in the table does not account for the impact of COVID-19, which will be severe for SDG progress.

Political and governance context. Brazil has experienced an uneasy political transition in recent years. In 2016, the then-incumbent president was impeached, and a transitional government took over. A new government with new priorities on addressing public security and crime, and promoting economic liberalization, was elected in 2018 and inaugurated in 2019 (at the same time social expenditures remained more or less stable but spending on the environment fell between 2019 and 2020).14

Brazil’s highly decentralized governance system faces fragmentation, competition and limited coordination, affecting integrated public policy responses.15 Varying institutional capacities among states, which have responsibility for basic social services delivery, contribute to existing socio-economic inequalities.16 17

Brazil ranked 94th out of 180 countries on the 2020 Corruption Perception Index (CPI). Brazil’s score on the CPI has fluctuated between 43 and 35 since 2012.18 Advancing reform of the political system and legal and institutional anti-corruption frameworks to improve public transparency and accountability remains a challenge.19

9 Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE), 2020. 10 Brazil occupies approximately half of South America; the land area of the country is about 8.5 million km2 . 11 For example, the flagship conditional cash transfer programme, Bolsa Família; annual minimum wage increases; and sectoral programmes such as Minha Casa Minha Vida in social housing, PAC-UAP in slum upgrading, Programa Nacional de Fortalecimento da

Agricultura Familiar, and PROUNI for educational credit at the university level, among others. 12 IPEA, 2014. 13 Brazil: Coronavirus platform, https://covid.saude.gov.br/, accessed on 2 February 2021. 14 Ribeiro, Vinicius, Almeida, Tiago and Alves, Bruno (2021) Raio-X do Orcamento 2021. Brasilia, Chamber of Commerce. 15 There are 26 states and one federal district (and five macro regions: North, Northeast, South, Southeast and Centre-western), with 5,570 municipalities. 16 Afonso, J. (2004) The relations between different levels of government in Brazil, CEPAL Review, 84. 17 Pierce, A. (2013) Decentralization and Social Policy in Brazil: An Analysis of Health and Education Policies of the New Republic, Journal of

International Affairs, Columbia University SIPA, 2013. 18 Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2020, https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/brazil.

According to the Corruption Perception Index scale 100 is very clean, 0 is very corrupt. 19 Transparency International (2019) CPI 2019 Regional Analysis: Americas, https://www.transparency.org/en/news/cpi-2019-americas