3.5 Perception of the ASEAN Economic Community

3.5

Perception of the ASEAN Economic

Almost all interviewees were indeed aware of what the AEC is and of its membership criteria, with many explaining the process during their interviews. Responses commonly involved descriptions relating to the free movement of people, trade and goods.

Our findings indicate that there are also some misconceptions about the AEC among Thai practitioners. There is a widespread feeling that the AEC provides for the free movement of all ASEAN citizens to work across the region. But the AEC permits only the free movement of eight categories of skilled professionals,291 which collectively account for only 1% of the current ASEAN population. What really allows for greater circulation of people regionally is the permissive visa exemption policy implemented by Thailand and other countries to promote tourism, commerce and investments.

The majority of the stakeholders questioned on this issue believed that the AEC would be challenging for Thailand. Some cited mostly positive outcomes, such as more economic prosperity in Thailand and across the region, while others believed it would have a negative impact on the crime rate. Those who believed it would have a negative impact on the crime rate said the increase in tourists and the free movement of capital, labour and investments would be increasingly difficult to control. One respondent noted perceptively that the ability of nations to cooperate would be the determining factor of the success of the AEC.

AEC Integration and Changing Pattern of TOC

The Cross-Border Trade Agreement was adopted in 2003, allowing for more open borders, fewer and less rigorous border inspections, additional visa exemptions, and more products that are not subject to search. These streamlined border procedures are designed to reduce the time spent by vehicles at border checkpoints. The number of visitors to Thailand is predicted to increase by more than 25% every year until 2018, which will likely further increase the number of countries benefiting from visa exemptions.292 As previously noted, Thailand has extensive visa exemption and visa on arrival programmes, with 76 countries both in the region and internationally.293 It is also a member of thirteen different free trade agreements, promoting the country’s trade connectivity through the eradication of import tariffs.294 However, as the region becomes more open and connected, transnational organized crime can increase and diversify.295

291 Engineering services, nursing services, architectural services, surveying services, dental practitioners, medical practitioners, accountancy services and tourism professionals. 292 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. (2014). Effective Frontline Border Management in Southeast Asia’s New Era of Integration. UNODC Regional Office for East Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok. 293 Department of Consular Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Thailand. (2016). Summary of Countries and Territories Entitled for Visa Exemption and Visa on Arrivals to Thailand. Department of Consular Affairs, Bangkok. Retrieved from http://www.consular.go.th/main/th/ customize/62281-Summary-of-Countries-and-Territories-entitled-for.html 294 Suksri, P., Sermcheep, S., & Srisangnam, P. (2015). Survey on the Use of Free Trade Agreements in Thailand, in Ing, L. Y., & Urata, S. (Eds.), The Use of FTAs in ASEAN: Survey-based Analysis. ERIA Research Project Report 2013-5. ERIA, Jakarta, 243-270. 295 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. (2016). Protecting peace and prosperity in South-east Asia: synchronizing economic and security agendas. UNODC Regional Office for East Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok.

The Office of National Economic and Social Development Board reported that AEC integration will make general markets more competitive, requiring businesses to come up with diverse strategies on how to survive in this new economic climate.296 It is safe to assume that this diversification of strategy will also apply to TOC.

Negative Changes

Among those who thought AEC integration would have a negative impact on TOC, there were three common themes:

First, transportation across borders is expected to be easier because of the increase in transportation infrastructure among countries in the region, which will limit costs for TOC and therefore increase its appeal.296 The stakeholders interviewed were concerned that traveling across borders will become so easy that offenders will be able to move freely and Thailand will become a safe haven for them. Others believe that transportation will become so simple that domestic offenders will adapt their operations and become international offenders, raising the level of TOC.

Second, interviewees indicated that transporting goods both legally and illegally will become easier and cheaper with AEC membership, increasing illicit trafficking opportunities. This presents a problem for Thailand as it challenges the country’s efforts to crack down on smuggling and trafficking of illegal goods, especially wildlife. Interestingly, an expert noted that with the eased goods transportation framework, offenders will be less concerned with concealing illegal items, and instead spread the risk over multiple vehicles. As a result, the costs of transportation will decrease, and the profits of traffickers will be higher.

Third, many interviewees said that as a result of eased movements of people and goods, it would be easier and faster to commit international crimes. 297

An agency respondent was asked what the AEC portends in terms of labour mobility, and what mechanisms are in place to regulate and monitor labour mobility across borders. The agency respondent clarified that it is difficult to apply the terminology ‘regulate’ to the situation, because ASEAN is actually facilitating labour mobility, not regulating it.

There is no ASEAN mechanism to recognize skills other than the eight categories of skilled labour and allow for their free movement. In many countries, immigration and labour laws are not harmonious. For

296

297 Ibid.

example, there is no mutual recognition agreement for construction workers, domestic helpers, workers on plantations, etc. Supply and demand help dictate additional flows of unskilled labour across borders. Migrant workers often face challenges in entering a foreign country alone, and so they resort to the help of a recruiting agency. However, many recruiting agencies are not legitimate and trick people into some form of exploitation. The countries that are due to receive these migrant workers should implement tighter border controls. ASEAN member states, with the strong encouragement of migrant worker advocates, are now in the process of negotiating an agreement in order to protect the human rights of migrant workers.

Interviewees were asked how visa requirements and travel restrictions will change for nationals of ASEAN member states. They explained that workers who are not included in the eight professions must follow the laws of the receiving state, which means a migrant worker needs to have a job opportunity before moving.

Ultimately the overwhelming majority of agencies believe that the levels of TOC will increase due to AEC. Some interviewees expect changes in the complexity of the crime itself, especially given that the developmental of technology helps offenders adapt. An interviewee underlined the need to strike a balance between softer rules for mobility and the needs of law enforcement in the new regional landscape.

An expert in TOC was asked to predict which TOC activities will become more salient in Thailand in the coming years. The expert identified drug trafficking, trafficking in persons and cybercrime as prominent emerging TOC activities. The expert also identified drugs as the greatest threat to Thai national security.

Positive Changes

A number of stakeholders said there would also be positive changes associated with the AEC. Some officers said it was possible that there would be a reduction in the amount of trafficking in persons and migrant smuggling because of the AEC. The visa exemption policies supporting the implementation of the AEC will encourage regular migration and fewer migrants will be compelled to use smugglers and traffickers in order to migrate. The Thai Ministry of Social Development and Human Security already reported this new trend. Additionally, some interviewees predict that some illegal activities will be relocated to neighbouring countries where minimum wages are lower. Therefore, fewer workers will migrate to Thailand, and some undocumented migrants will return to their countries of origin because of increased job opportunities, albeit in connection with illegal activities. Others said that an increase in TOC may be counterbalanced by integration, since regional integration implies stronger cooperation among the law enforcement authorities of ASEAN member states. Nonetheless, stakeholders could not predict what would happen to TOC because of AEC integration. This implies that there is a need to raise awareness among public officials and institutions about the trends in TOC.