The Conflict in Ukraine and its Impact on Organized Crime and Security A Snapshot of Key Trends
Moldovan police seized several large batches of drugs, including Alpha-pvp, amphetamines, and marijuana. Overall between April and July 2022 Moldovan police have detected five cases of illicit trafficking in drugs seizing 14.9 kg of PVP.79 This indicates that illicit drug production is still active in Ukraine and may be trying to expand to neighbouring countries and use Moldova as a transit corridor to Western
markets. Afghanistan’s move into largescale ephedra-based methamphetamine production could also have implications. The EU drug agency has expressed concerns that cheap Afghan meth could make its way to Europe through Ukraine along the pre-established Balkan route. As with other synthetic drugs, any increase in demand for the drug could likely be met by an increase in domestic production.
The conflict will likely make Ukraine’s population more vulnerable to drug use disorders Before the conflict, 350,000 people in Ukraine (1.7 per cent of the adult population) were estimated to inject drugs, mostly opioids, including heroin and methadone, sold on illicit markets.80 Ukraine also has one of the highest prevalence in the world of people who inject drugs and live with HIV. As a UNODC brief from April 2022 states, the conflict and related problems (including stress and trauma) may exacerbate this problem
further and make people more vulnerable to drug use disorders.81 The potential radical transformation of the drug market with new routes for smuggling into Europe and new types of synthetic drugs produced will require updated knowledge and efforts from the law enforcement community.
5.2 ARMS TRAFFICKING There is an established history of illicit arms trafficking82 in Ukraine, dating back to the fall of the Soviet Union, when large amounts of small arms and light weapons were left behind without adequate record-keeping and inventory control. According to the Small Arms Survey, a portion of the 7.1 million small arms stocks held by the Ukrainian military was ”diverted to conflict areas.”83 In 2018, Chief Military Prosecutor Anatolii Matios estimated that around 400,000
illegal weapons were circulated in Ukraine.84 Even before the February 2022 invasion, many were concerned about the quantities of illicit military weapons discovered by Ukrainian authorities.85 Compared to the transnational trafficking of drugs and people into the EU, transnational firearms-trafficking routes are more complicated to trace, as they do not represent linear movements along a trafficking route from A to B.
The availability of arms may increase the risk of crime and terrorism-related violence across Europe and beyond There is a consensus amongst experts that Ukraine’s large black market 26
dedicated to the sale of firearms has further grown since the outbreak of armed
