When discussing CBRN threats, it is important to note that after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited approximately 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads, representing the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal at the time (after Russia and USA). The 1994 Budapest Memorandum, according to which the United States, Russia, and Great Britain committed “to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” and “to refrain from the threat or use of force” against the country,137 played a key role in persuading Ukraine to renounce these weapons.138 Nowadays, Ukraine hosts some of Europe’s largest nuclear power plants, and there are 15 pressurised water reactors of Russian VVER design on its territory. Of these, six reactors are at Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), while the
rest are at Rivne, South Ukraine, and Khmelnytskyi NPPs. The Chernobyl NPP, located within the Exclusion Zone, is undergoing decommissioning.139 Furthermore, the chemical industry is one of the principal sectors of Ukraine’s economy and includes chemical, petrochemical and pharmaceutical sub-sectors with over 1,600 enterprises and structural units.140 This means many chemical plants, civilian industry, or medical institutions inside or near the combat zone store radioactive sources, radioactive waste or dangerous chemical compounds. These sites could be highly vulnerable since non-nuclear facilities, such as chemical plants, host radioactive sources but do not enjoy the same physical protection as nuclear facilities.141 Indeed, some of these have been looted in the aftermath of the occupation in 2014.142
Compromised security and damage to nuclear power plants The presence of military forces near or within nuclear power plants represents an unprecedented risk that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has closely monitored since February 2022. In this context, the agency has developed a tailored approach to assess the situation against seven indispensable pillars for ensuring nuclear safety and
security during this armed conflict. The most concerning case is Zaporizhzhia (ZNPP), the biggest power plant in Ukraine. Russian forces took control on 4 March 2022, while its Ukrainian staff continued to operate it under stressful and deteriorating conditions.143 In June, an IAEA’s update indicated
CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL, RADIOLOGICAL, AND NUCLEAR (CBRN) THREATS: KEY TRENDS
7. Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Threats: Key Trends
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