The Conflict in Ukraine and its Impact on Organized Crime and Security A Snapshot of Key Trends
Executive Summary This report assesses the impact of the conflict in Ukraine and its implications for organized crime and security-related issues for neighbouring countries, with a focus on Moldova. These include: i) Organized Crime and Illicit Trafficking (including human trafficking, drugs, arms, illicit tobacco, and other goods); ii) Cybercrimes and Fraud; iii) Disinformation and Propaganda; and iv) Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) threats. This study provides key recommendations to inform concerned stakeholders at the national and regional level, to identify lessons learned and guide future initiatives to mitigate risks in the above-mentioned areas. Conflicts usually weaken state capacity, resulting in a conducive environment for organized criminal activities. Criminal groups may take advantage of the chaotic and unregulated circumstances to smuggle various commodities under the fog of war, and these activities may become protracted and permanent once the active phase of the conflict is over. However, at the same time, the uncertainty and violence of conflict can also threaten traffickers, especially during active warfare. The report found that illicit trade in various commodities suffered only temporary setbacks and rebounded soon. While some local production of illicit goods declined in the first weeks of the conflict, as the violence has progressed, human trafficking and the illicit markets in arms, drugs and other commodities have either grown or remained at the same level. The only lasting disruption as of writing appears to be the disintegration
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of illicit trade networks stretching across combat lines in Donetsk and Luhansk. While before February 2022, cross-border criminal cooperation between Ukrainian and Russian criminal groups was commonplace, this is no longer the case. The conflict has allowed new and emerging organized criminal enterprises to develop and expand. New activities include the transportation of commercial goods under the guise of humanitarian aid; smuggling of deficit products, such as fuel and lubricants from neighbouring countries into Ukraine; smuggling of newly sanctioned goods; and trade in looted commodities, such as grain from Ukraine. The report also found that there isgrowing concern regarding the increasing flow of illegal firearms and illicit substances such as heroin and alpha-pvp towards the European Union. The availability of arms may increase the risk of crime and terrorism-related violence across Europe and beyond. The conflict has generated plenty of opportunities for traffickers and human smugglers, putting especially women and children at risk, and there is an urgent need for preventive and monitoring measures. Significant demand has also risen for the smuggling of military-aged men out of Ukraine. These examples demonstrate how transnational crime can rapidly transform in Europe, its borderlands, and at its seaports. The conflict may result in changing routes and shifting production, allowing for new opportunities for criminal networks to emerge in Ukraine and across the wider region. Some changes
