Europe in multipolar world: Global overview and future perspectives

The position of the Old Continent in the New Global Order

by Uxío Fernández Ferrás

The challenge for global dominance between the traditional Western Axis and the emerging world’s East has started a long time ago. The rise of alternative powers in the world in recent decades has been notorious, mostly in the case of China, but the entrance of Russian army in Ukraine in 2022 and the collective NATO response has become the point of inflection of this process.

The shift to a multipolar’s world

First of all, it is necessary to clarify what is understood as a multipolar world and the two different conceptions of this term. The multipolar world concept can describe a shift from the traditional state-centric global axis to one where various actors like transnational companies, NGOs, and terrorist groups overshadow the state. However, it can also refer to the power distribution exclusively among states, explaining the new world order with multiple dominant poles. By using this conception, this article will analyze the world’s shift from the American unipolar dominance to the current context with a challenging Eastern pole led by China and other rising economies and the position of Europe in the new world order.

In this new rising Eastern pole can be identified an axis consisting of China as the new global economic leader, Russia as a military power and Iran as the regional power in the Middle East can be identified. In parallel, BRICS structure has developed with China and Russia as the main leaders of the organization alongside India (a global rising power), Brazil (the big power in South America) and South Africa. The success of Chinese diplomacy reaching a historic agreement to normalize Saudi-Iranian relations in March 2023 was the first step to their incorporation to the BRICS. Among them, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt joined the organization, reuniting some of the biggest powers in Africa and the Middle East.

The unfolding of these events beyond Western control is proof of this global multipolar shift. For the moment, the USA and their Anglo-Saxon allies (mostly those in the Five Eyes like the UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand) are in a weaker but still preeminent position in the global context. On the other hand, the slowdown of the European economy, the lack of sovereignty and autonomy in the decision-making process and the dependence on the USA is becoming a threat to the position of Western Powers in the current world.

The internal challenges of the EU

The decreasing power of the European Union can be explained also by its internal problems and challenges. The clearest proof has been the struggles to reach consensus in both the 2015 refugees crisis and the COVID funds, showing a warning lack of cohesion. The loss of a controversial but powerful member like the United Kingdom has also affected the economy of the organization, whose weakness is one of the reasons for the rise of the extreme right wing in the continent. In fact, the impossibility to make governments like the Hungarian or Polish ones to respect the Human Right laws shows a lack of authority of the Union itself.

“Europe should accept their new role in the new world order and reconsider a neutral position that allows it to negotiate as well with the USA and the new Eastern rising powers. ”

Although it has been hidden for decades, the general rise of the extreme right movement can be explained by the fall of socialism in the 90’s and the deterioration of the quality of life in Western societies after the 2008 economic crisis. The disappearance of the strong left-handed ideology in most of these nations leads to a lack of alternatives for the population seeking change from the country’s traditional political system. The current spectrum is generally situated from the centrist social-democratic parties to the traditional conservatives and rising or consolidated extreme-right ones. In fact, the few recent left alternatives like Syriza (Greece) or Podemos (Spain) have already disappeared

The extreme-right alternatives, on the other hand, have entered each European Union countries’ Parliament during the last decade. Apart from the Eastern European countries previously mentioned, in the Western powers Giorgia Meloni has become Italian Prime Minister, Marine Le Pen was really close to win the Presidentials in France and the AfD party could become second force in Germany. Even though change is urgently needed, the prospect of it being led by extreme right parties seems perilous and uncertain for the future.

Future prospects for the EU

In the international sphere, the European Union is facing a lack of sovereignty in the decision-making process and an increased irrelevancy in the new world order. This is exemplified by the actions made regarding the Russian-Ukraine situation.The sanctions that followed the condemnation of the Russian military’s actions appear like self-sabotage. Until now, they are being mostly prejudicial to dependent European economies in fields such as gas or energy and do not prevent the Russian economy from growing. The European Union should navigate in between the logical condemnation of Russian actions in Ukraine to a point where the well-being of the European population is not at risk. The provoked explosions of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, along with the absence of any response, and the allocation of millions of public money and weapons to Ukraine without consulting the populations of the countries involved, are puzzling in a conflict where the EU is one of the biggest affected parties.

After implementing various measures against Russia, it appears that they may not lose the war. Consequently, perhaps it is time for the EU to negotiate the future of Eastern Europe and consider phasing out ineffective sanctions.

For this reason, Europe should accept their new role in the new world order and reconsider a neutral position that allows it to negotiate as well with the USA and the new Eastern rising powers. The EU is still leading fields as the response towards the climatic change and the ecological transition, so it could be the moment to lead the global diplomacy and become the balance between the two world’s big poles. In this rising tension scenario that we are already immersed in, the EU can benefit from this neutral non-aligned position. In the medium-long term, the EU can consider one of its old ambitions: the creation of an European army. To achieve autonomy in decision-making, distancing from NATO and reducing reliance on the USA is essential, with the establishment of an independent military being the most effective approach.

Recent positive signal

Despite being far away from what’s expected from an EU that champions Human Rights, the response towards the genocide in Gaza has shown slight improvement in independence from the American stance. Similarly, countries like France, Italy, and Spain have notably declined to join the Prosperity Guardian Operation against the Houthis in the Red Sea. Several countries, including Norway, Ireland, and Spain, also opposed the suspension of funding for UNRWA (the UN agency for Palestinian refugees in the Middle East), but their decision was largely influenced by public opinion within their societies. This highlights once more the lack of cohesion within the EU, even in response to a severe humanitarian crisis.

The erosion of these last two years of unconditional support of Ukraine and the historical background of the Palestinian conflict were reasons enough to moderate the discourse and support to Israel in this case. The EU should definitely keep and improve this sovereign way of action and decision making in order to regain an independent position in the new world order.

Conclusion

In summary, the era of a unipolar world dominated by the West no longer exists. Therefore, it is more appropriate to discuss a multipolar axis. Throughout history, every shift in power dynamics has been accompanied by a rise in tension or a war between the current reigning power and the outsider nation (the Thucydides Trap). In fact, this tension started to be visible some years ago, first with the US-China sanctions and, more recently, with the war in Ukraine and the thousandth escalation of violence in the Middle East. The European Union is facing several challenges, with the struggle of the democracies throughout the continent, the lack of cohesion and union inside the organization and a decreasing leadership in the new world order. This loss of power in the worldwide dynamic, sometimes even against their own interests, is due to the excessive dependance on the USA and a lack of sovereignty and autonomy on the decision-making process. The solution could be taking distance from both poles and keeping a neutral stance that allows the EU to make agreements with both sides, to mitigate the predicted escalation of tension in the coming years and maintain balance and peace.