A Method To Create A Local LCS Scenario The method is based on the idea of “back casting” to create a local low carbon society scenario.
(1) Setting the framework Aspects included in a LCS scenario framework are: the target area, base year, environmental targets and a number of scenarios. The base year is compared with the target year. In Iskandar Malaysia, the target year of GHG emission reduction is 2025. (2) Description of socio-economic assumptions Qualitative future image of lifestyle, economy, industry, land use, transportation and other key aspects is described based on synthesis of official planning documents. (3) Quantification of socio-economic assumptions Values of exogenous variables and parameters are set in order to estimate the future image of (2) above. Based on these values, the ExSS tool computes various socioeconomic indices of the target year. (4) Collection of low-carbon measures Countermeasures for reducing GHG emissions which are envisioned to be available in the target year are identified. Technical data for estimating the countermeasures’ effects on GHG emission reduction are collected. (5) Setting introduction of measures in target year Technological parameters related to energy efficiency are defined. Appropriate criteria for the introduction of countermeasures are outlined. (6) Estimation of GHG emissions in the target year GHG emissions are computed based on the socio-economic indices and assumptions that underline the introduction of countermeasures.
Figure 2. Procedure to create a local LCS scenario Source: Low-carbon Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia brochure October 2010
(7) Confirming measures set and suggestion of policy recommendations. Policy set to introduce the measures defined is recommended. Suitability of the policy should be in accordance with the context of the target area towards achieving the highest reduction potential of countermeasures.
Quantitative Estimation Tool: Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) The next step is to quantify the socio -economic assumptions (3) in the district by using a quantitative estimation tool. Figure 3 shows an overview of the Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) that is used to compute and estimate CO2 emission from energy consumption. It consists of seven input parameters (modules), a set of exogenous variables and variables between modules. Fixed population data are used in this tool but when it is applied to a smaller region (district, city, etc.), it is concerned that people migrate more easily and population will be determined by demand external to the region (export), labour participation ratio, demographic composition and relationship of commuting with areas outside the region. An “export-based” input-output approach is used to determine the output of industries. Basic industries are industries that produce export goods and these industries will generate non-basic industries (services, etc.) through demands on intermediate input and worker’s consumption in the industrial sector. Labour demand of production processes and
Vibrant World-class Cosmopolis of the South JOHOR BAHRU CITY COUNCIL LOW CARBON SOCIETY
MBJB
(Tertiary industries)
The project of Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions (2011-2016) under the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) framework aims to develop a methodology for creating Low Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios that will lead to implementable LCS policies that are appropriate for Malaysia, and subsequently transmittable to other Asian countries. A key outcome of the project has been the Iskandar Malaysia Low Carbon Society Blueprint (IMLCSBP) 2025 that was launched at UNFCCC’s COP 18, Doha, in November 2012. The IMLCSBP 2025 outlines a total of 281 programs for implementation in IM that are projected to result in a 58% reduction in GHG emission intensity in terms of GDP by 2025 compared to 2005 levels and a 41% reduction in absolute emission compared with the business as usual (BaU) scenario in 2025. Figure 3. Quantitative Estimation Tool: Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) Source: Low-carbon Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia brochure October 2010
population living in the target area is computed through a labour participation ratio. Passenger transport demand is estimated from population and freight transport demand from industrial output. Energy demand by fuels in each sector is determined by three parameters which are energy service demand per driving force, energy efficiency and fuel share. The process of distributing measures will eventually reduce these parameters, and so GHG emissions.
We welcome feedback and suggestions. Please do contact us: UTM-Low Carbon Asia Research Centre Room 02-04-01, Block B-12, Faculty of Built Environment, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Johor Bahru, Malaysia. T +607-555 7539 F +607-553 8003 E lowcarbonsociety2011@yahoo.com W www.utm.my/satreps-lcs @2014 UTM-Low Carbon Asia Research Centre Graphic Design © Akmal Hakim
Towards effective implementation of the LCS programs in IM, which covers four local authority (LA) jurisdictions and part of a fifth LA jurisdiction, a set of five LA-specific LCS blueprints are currently being prepared. This brochure presents a preliminary summary of the LCS Blueprint for the Johor Bahru City Council (Majlis Bandaraya Johor Bahru, MBJB).
Established in 2006, covering an area of 221,634 hectares, Iskandar Malaysia (IM) is endowed with an enviable catchment of some 0.8 billion people within a six-hour flight radius. It is set to become an integrated global node that synergises with growth of the global Citystate of Singapore and Indonesia. Population is projected to more than double from 1.35 million in 2005 to over 3 million by 2025, supported by a stable 7-8% annual GDP growth that is primarily driven by high value-added services and manufacturing sectors.
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Iskandar Malaysia Low Carbon Society (LCS)
Majlis Perbandaran Johor Bahru Tengah (MPJBT), 5 Local Authorities in Iskandar Malaysia
It is envisioned that by 2025, the MBJB area will become the centre for cosmopolitan living, retail and shopping, hotel, culture and heritage tourism, city campuses for colleges, financial services, professional services, medical services, SME, and transportation terminal.
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Majlis Bandaraya Johor Bahru (MBJB) Majlis Perbandaran Pasir Gudang (MPPG) Majlis Perbandaran Kulaijaya (MPKu) Majlis Daerah Pontian (MDP)
Targeted strong growth is achieved in IM while keeping its carbon emission level at bay, in line with IM’s vision to be “A strong sustainable metropolis of international standing”. (Source : CDP, 2006)
In transforming IM into a low carbon society, 281 LCS programs have been identified under 12 LCS actions to lower GHG emissions of IM’s development activities. These are organised under three main themes: Green Economy, Green Community and Green Environment. Implementation of the 281 programs is estimated to yield a 12,758 ktCO2eq direct emission reduction in IM in 2025. This is equivalent to a 41% cut back in absolute GHG emission compared with the 2025BaU scenario and a 58% reduction in GHG emission intensity in terms of GDP compared to 2005 levels.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the MBJB area in 2025 is expected to be RM 40,940 (4.08 times of the performance in 2005). The share of future primary industry sector in MBJB will decrease from 0.24% (2005) to 0.08% (2025). The secondary industry sector’s share is expected to decrease from 32.15% (2005) to 23.33% (2025). Tertiary industry sector will become the main economic sector in MBJB, its share rising from 67.61% in 2005 to 76.59% in 2025.
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Population in MBJB in 2025 is expected to increase to 920,850 (2.03 times compared to 2005). Number of households in the MBJB area will increase from 113,893 (2005) to 230,852 (2025). GDP per capita in the MBJB area is expected to more than double from RM 22,100 (2005) to RM 44,459 (2025).
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Action 1 Integrated Green Transportation
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Integrated Public Transportation Improvement of JB - Singapore, JB-KL Connectivity Diffusion of Low Carbon Vehicles Enhancing Traffic Flow Conditions and Performance Green Freight Transportation.
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Decarbonizing industries Green employment in existing industries Human capital development in green industry .
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Passenger transport demand in the MBJB area will increase from 3,391 million passenger-kilometres (2005) to 21,171 million passenger-kilometres (2025). Freight transport demand will increase from 2,237 million tonne-kilometres (2005) to 7,544 million tonne-kilometres (2025).
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There are 11 actions selected from 12 actions that are available in the Iskandar Malaysia’s Low Carbon Society Blueprint that can be implemented in the MBJB area.
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Table 1: Estimation Results of Scenario Quantification in 2025, MBJB Scenario Quantification
Year Established: 1933 IM Flagship: Flagship A Sub-Districts: Johor Bahru City Centre, Plentong and Tebrau Area: 46,605.87 hectares Total Population (2005 census) : 454,310
Current Socioeconomic Scenario
Johor Bahru City Centre
Johor Bahru City is rich in history that dated back to as early as the 16th Century. Today the city projects its rich history through buildings like the Sultan Ibrahim Building. The buildings are significant as they stood witness to many historical
Johor Bahru
Legend MBJB
0
3 6
12
18
24 Kilometers
Vibrant World-class Cosmopolis of the South Located within the central region of Iskandar Malaysia and directly linked to Singapore, Johor Bahru has grown to be a vibrant, world-class cosmopolis of the southern region. Strategic economic activities in JB include financial services, commerce and retail, arts and culture, hospitality, urban tourism, plastic manufacturing, electrical manufacturing and electronics (E&E) and metal products.
Being conferred the City Status in 1994, Johor Bahru (JB) developed rapidly. It is now the centre of Malaysia’s second largest conurbation, with a population of over 1 million. Johor Bahru has high residential, commercial and leisure values to locals and non-locals.
2005
2025
2025/2005
Scenario Quantification
Population
454,310
920,850
2.03
No. of households
113,893
230,852
2.03
∗ ∗ ∗
GDP (mil RM)
10,038
40,940
4.08
GDP per capita (RM)
22,100
44,459
2.01
∗ ∗
Passenger Transport Demand (mil p-km)
3,391
21,171
6.24
Freight Transport Demand (mil t-km)
2,327
7,544
3.24
Primary Industry (mil RM)
24
33
1.33
Secondary Industry (mil RM)
3,227
9,552
2.96
Tertiary Industry (mil RM)
6,786
31,355
4.62
Sultan Ibrahim Building, Bukit Timbalan
The 1,056-metre JohorSingapore Causeway is a crucial link between the City of Johor Bahru and Woodlands in Singapore. The causeway records an average daily traffic of over 222,000. Apart from serving as a primary road and rail link, it also carries the water The Causeway supply pipeline to Singapore. As the City of Johor Bahru grows rapidly, the number of vehicles also increase. It leads to traffic congestion especially at the causeway. It will cause various problems including environmental issues such as air and water (sea) pollution.
2005
2025
2025/2005
∗ ∗ ∗
Final energy demand (ktoe)
2025 BaU
2025CM
2025BaU/2005
2025CM/2005
2025CM/2025BaU
651.23
1,934.97
1,157.62
2.97
1.78
0.60
2,625.04
7,886.29
4,276.03
3.00
1.63
0.54
Per capita CO2 emissions (tCO2eq)
5.78
8.56
4.64
1.48
0.80
0.54
GHG intensity (ktCO2qeq / mil.RM)
0.26
0.19
0.10
0.74
0.40
0.54
GHG emissions (ktCO2eq) Traffic congestion at the Causeway
2005
Promoting Green Building in New Construction Energy Efficiency Improvement of Existing Buildings (Retrofitting) Green Construction Green Building Design and Technology
Action 5 Green Energy System and Renewable Energy
Awareness through Education Smart Working Style Promote Energy Efficiency Promote “Smart Travel Choices” Stock-taking for Low Carbon Lifestyle
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Action 6 Low Carbon Lifestyle
Action 7 Community Engagement and Consensus Building
Share LCS information and gather opinion through stakeholder engagement Public information on LCS progress Developing model low carbon communities Green ambassadors/champions
Action 8 Walkable, Safe, Livable City Design
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Designing Walkable City Centers and Neighborhoods Designing the Cyclist-friendly City Designing the Safe City (from crime) Designing Civilised & Livable Streets through Traffic Calming
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Promote polycentric growth pattern in IM Promote compact urban development Promote transit supportive land use Develop the “smart digital city”
Figure 1. GHG emission by sector
Unit
Action 4 Green Building and Construction
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GHG emission of the MBJB area in year 2005 is 2,625 ktCO2eq, which triples to 7,886 ktCO2eq in year 2025 if no mitigation measures are taken.
Table 2: Energy demand, GHG and emission intensity of the MBJB area
Development Planning for Low Carbon Iskandar Malaysia Planning Control Process, Procedures and Mechanism for Materializing LCS in Iskandar Malaysia Development of Necessary Human Capital for Operationalizing and Implementing Iskandar Malaysia’s Low Carbon Society Vision Iskandar Malaysia LCS Monitoring, Reporting and Publication System
Promotion of Renewable/ Alternative Energy Establishment of Advanced Energy System Provision of Incentives and Subsidies and Derivation of Tariff Rates
∗
Specifically, emission of the waste sector can be reduced up to 86% (-168ktCO2eq) while the reduction for the transport sector is 60% (-1,697ktCO2eq), commercial sector 47% (-875ktCO2eq), residential sector 45% (528ktCO2eq) and industry sector 19% (-343ktCO2eq).
Action 3 Low Carbon Urban Governance
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Figure 1 shows the total carbon emission of the MBJB area by key emission sectors in 2005 (base year), 2025BaU (Business as Usual) and 2025CM (Counter Measures) scenarios.
However, the scenario will be better if mitigation measures are introduced. An estimated 46% GHG reduction (3,610 ktCO2eq) may be achieved under the 2025CM as compared to the 2025BaU scenario.
Action 2 Green Industry
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
Action 9 Smart Urban Growth
Action 10 Green and Blue Infrastructure and Rural Resources
Promote Urban Forests (urban recreation and green lungs) New Development to Retain Existing Vegetation
Action 11 Sustainable Waste Management
Sustainable municipal solid waste management Sustainable industrial waste management Sustainable sewage sludge management Sustainable construction and demolition waste management