A Method To Create A Local LCS Scenario The method is based on the idea of “back casting” to create a local low-carbon society scenario.
(1) Setting the framework Aspects included in a LCS scenario framework are: the target area, base year, environmental targets and a number of scenarios. The base year is compared with the target year. In Iskandar Malaysia, the target year of GHG emission reduction is 2025. (2) Description of socio-economic assumptions Qualitative future image of lifestyle, economy, industry, land use, transportation and other key aspects is described based on synthesis of official planning documents. (3) Quantification of socio-economic assumptions Values of exogenous variables and parameters are set in order to estimate the future image of (2) above. Based on these values, the ExSS tool computes various socioeconomic indices of the target year. (4) Collection of low-carbon measures Countermeasures for reducing GHG emissions which are envisioned to be available in the target year are identified. Technical data for estimating the countermeasures’ effects on GHG emission reduction are collected. (5) Setting introduction of measures in target year Technological parameters related to energy efficiency are defined. Appropriate criteria for the introduction of countermeasures are outlined. (6) Estimation of GHG emissions in the target year GHG emissions are computed based on the socio-economic indices and assumptions that underline the introduction of countermeasures.
Figure 2. Procedure to create a local LCS scenario Source: Low-carbon Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia brochure October 2010
(7) Confirming measures set and suggestion of policy recommendations. Policy set to introduce the measures defined is recommended. Suitability of the policy should be in accordance with the context of the target area towards achieving the highest reduction potential of countermeasures.
Clean Energy and Agro-Biodiversity Hub
Quantitative Estimation Tool Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) The next step is to quantify the socio -economic assumptions (3) in the district by using a quantitative estimation tool. Figure 3 shows an overview of the Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) that is used to compute and estimate CO2 emission from energy consumption. It consists of seven input parameters (modules), a set of exogenous variables and variables between modules.
PONTIAN DISTRICT COUNCIL LOW CARBON SOCIETY
(Jeram Batu, Serkat & Sg. Karang Sub-districts)
(Tertiary industries)
The project of Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions (20112016) under the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) framework aims to develop a methodology for creating Low Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios that will lead to implementable LCS policies that are appropriate for Malaysia, and subsequently transmittable to other Asian countries.
Fixed population data are used in this tool but when it is applied to a smaller region (district, city, etc.), it is concerned that people migrate more easily and population will be determined by demand external to the region (export), labour participation ratio, demographic composition and relationship of commuting with areas outside the region. An “export-based” input-output approach is used to determine the output of industries. Basic industries are industries that produce export goods and these industries will generate non-basic industries (services, etc.) through demands on intermediate input and worker’s consumption in the industrial sector. Labour demand of production processes and
MDP
Figure 3. Quantitative Estimation Tool Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) Source: Low-carbon Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia brochure October 2010
population living in the target area is computed through a labour participation ratio. Passenger transport demand is estimated from population and freight transport demand from industrial output. Energy demand by fuels in each sector is determined by three parameters which are energy service demand per driving force, energy efficiency and fuel share. The process of distributing measures will eventually reduce these parameters, and so GHG emissions.
We welcome feedback and suggestions. Please do contact us: UTM-Low Carbon Asia Research Centre Room 02-04-01, Block B-12, Faculty of Built Environment, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Johor Bahru, Malaysia. T +607-555 7539 F +607-553 8003 E lowcarbonsociety2011@yahoo.com W www.utm.my/satreps-lcs @2014 UTM-Low Carbon Asia Research Centre Graphic Design © Akmal Hakim
A key outcome of the project has been the Iskandar Malaysia Low Carbon Society Blueprint (IMLCSBP) 2025 that was launched at UNFCCC’s COP 18, Doha, in November 2012. The IMLCSBP 2025 outlines a total of 281 programs for implementation in IM that are projected to result in a 58% reduction in GHG emission intensity in terms of GDP by 2025 compared to 2005 levels and a 41% reduction in absolute emission compared with the business as usual (BaU) scenario in 2025. Towards effective implementation of the LCS programs in IM, which covers four local authority (LA) jurisdictions and part of a fifth LA jurisdiction, a set of five LA-specific LCS blueprints are currently being prepared. This brochure presents a preliminary summary of the LCS Blueprint for the three sub-districts of the Pontian District Council (Majlis Daerah Pontian, MPD) that are located within Iskandar Malaysia.
Established in 2006, covering an area of 221,634 hectares, Iskandar Malaysia (IM) is endowed with an enviable catchment of some 0.8 billion people within a six-hour flight radius. It is set to become an integrated global node that synergises with growth of the global Citystate of Singapore and Indonesia. Population is projected to more than double from 1.35 million in 2005 to over 3 million by 2025, supported by a stable 7-8% annual GDP growth that is primarily driven by high value-added services and manufacturing sectors.
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Iskandar Malaysia Low Carbon Society (LCS)
Majlis Perbandaran Johor Bahru Tengah (MPJBT) 5 Local Authorities in Iskandar Malaysia
It is envisioned that by 2025, the three sub-districts of MDP will become the hub for eco- and rural tourism, petrochemical and oil and gas industry as well as power plant. .
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Majlis Bandaraya Johor Bahru (MBJB) Majlis Perbandaran Pasir Gudang (MPPG) Majlis Perbandaran Kulaijaya (MPKu) Majlis Daerah Pontian (MDP)
Targeted strong growth is achieved while keeping IM’s carbon emission level at bay, in line with IM’s vision to be “A strong sustainable metropolis of international standing”. (Source : CDP 2006)
In transforming IM into a low carbon society, 281 LCS programs have been identified under 12 LCS actions to lower GHG emissions of IM’s development activities. These are organised under three main themes: Green Economy, Green Community and Green Environment. Implementation of the 281 programs is estimated to yield a 12,758 ktCO2eq direct emission reduction in IM in 2025. This is equivalent to a 41% cut back in absolute GHG emission compared with the 2025BaU scenario and a 58% reduction in GHG emission intensity in terms of GDP compared to 2005 levels.
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the MDP area in IM in 2025 is expected to be RM6,550 million (1.84 times of the 2005 GDP). The share of future primary industry sector of the area will decrease from 10% (2005) to 5% (2025). Secondary industry sector’s share is expected to decrease from 41% (2005) to 36% (2025). Tertiary industry sector will become the main economic sector of the area (from 49% in 2005 to 59% in 2025).
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Passenger transport demand in MDP area within IM will increase from 205 million passenger-kilometres (2005) to 1,169 million passenger-kilometres (2025). Freight transport demand will increase from 147 million tonne-kilometres (2005) to 354 million tonne-kilometres (2025).
Population
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Year Established: November 1976 Flagship: Flagship C Sub-Districts: Jeram Batu, Sungai Karang, Serkat Area: 1,080.00 hectares Total Population : 29,307 (2005 census)
2025
2025/2005
Scenario Quantification
2005
2025
2025/2005
29,307
54,142
1.84
No. of households
6,550
12,101
1.84
635
1,921
3.03
GDP per capita (RM)
21,667
35,481
1.64
Passenger Transport Demand (mil p-km)
205
1,169
5.71
Freight Transport Demand (mil t-km)
147
354
2.40
GDP (mil RM)
Port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP)
Port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP) is a port for container ships located on the eastern bank of the Pulai River estuary. PTP is currently spending RM1.4 billion to expand its quay with the addition of four berths. The port was voted ‘Asia’s Container Terminal of the Year’ in 2004 and 2006.
Primary Industry (mil RM)
124
165
1.33
Secondary Industry (mil RM)
336
946
2.82
Tertiary Industry (mil RM)
175
809
Figure 1 shows the total carbon emission of the MDP area within IM by key emission sectors in 2005 (base year), 2025BaU (Business as Usual) and 2025CM (Counter Measures) scenarios. GHG emission of the MDP area within IM in year 2005 is 397 ktCO2eq and is projected to increase 46% to 582 ktCO2eq in year 2025 if no mitigation measures are taken.
Tanjung Bin Power Plant
However, the scenario will be better if mitigation measures are introduced. An estimated 43% reduction (249 ktCO2eq) may be achieved under the 2025CM as compared to the 2025BaU scenario.
Johor-Singapore Second-Link was built to reduce traffic congestion on the existing Johor-Singapore Causeway and catalyse urban growth to the west of Johor Bahru. It was opened to traffic on 2 January 1998.
Specifically, emission of the waste sector can be reduced up to 68% (-79ktCO2eq) while the reduction for the transport sector is 60% (-78ktCO2eq), commercial sector 46% (-22ktCO2eq), residential sector 46% (28ktCO2eq) and industry sector 19% (-43ktCO2eq).
Johor-Singapore Second-Link
Clean Energy and Agro-Biodiversity Hub The key economic activities for the part of Pontian in Iskandar Malaysia, is mostly on industrial and trade based activities, but most of the land banks in this area are agriculture land and mangrove forests which can be considered as an advantage for the region to become a Agro-biodiversity hub
Pulau Kukup, Sungai Pulai and Tanjung Piai were designated as RAMSAR sites in 2003. Pulau Kukup is the largest uninhabited mangrove island in the world. The RAMSAR site provides great opportunities for tourism activities. Its uniqueness is the concentration of 25 endemic mangrove species.
Table 2: Energy demand, GHG and emission intensity of Pontian area Unit Tanjung Piai RAMSAR Site
2005
2025 BaU
2025CM
2025BaU/2005
2025CM/2005
2025CM/2025BaU
49
122
85
2.49
1.73
0.70
397
582
333
1.47
0.84
0.57
Per capita CO2 emissions (tCO2eq)
13.55
10.75
6.15
0.79
0.45
0.57
GHG intensity (ktCO2qeq / mil.RM)
0.63
0.30
0.17
0.48
0.28
0.57
GHG emissions (ktCO2eq)
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Green Freight Transportation
Decarbonizing Industries Green Employment in Existing Industries Human Capital Development in Green Industry
Development Planning for Low Carbon Iskandar Malaysia Planning Control Process, Procedures and Mechanism for Materializing LCS in Iskandar Malaysia Development of Necessary Human Capital for Operationalizing and Implementing Iskandar Malaysia’s Low Carbon Society Vision Iskandar Malaysia LCS Monitoring, Reporting and Publication System
Action 5 Green Energy System & Renewable Energy Promotion of Renewable/ Alternative Energy Establishment of Advanced Energy System Provision of Incentives and Subsidies and Derivation of Tariff Rates Rural Green Buildings
Action 6 Low Carbon Lifestyle
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Figure 1. GHG emission by sector
Final energy Demand (ktoe)
∗
∗
4.62
Tanjung Bin Power Plant is the first private coal-fired plant in Malaysia and the biggest coalfired power plant in South-East Asia. The plant has a generating capacity of 2100 MW (700MW x 3 units).
Pontian
∗
2005
Current Socioeconomic Scenario
Integrated Public Transportation Diffusion of Low Carbon Vehicles Enhancing Traffic Flow Conditions and Performance Green Transportation in Rural Areas
Action 3 Low Carbon Urban Governance
Table 1: Estimation Results of Scenario Quantification in 2025, Pontian within IM Scenario Quantification
Action 1 Integrated Green Transportation
Action 2 Green Industry
Population in the three sub-districts of MDP in 2025 is expected to increase to 54,142 (1.84 times compared to 2005). Number of households in the sub-districts will increase from 6,550 (2005) to 12,101 (2025). GDP per capita of the sub-districts is expected to increase from RM 21,667 (2005) to RM35,481 (2025)
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There are 7 actions selected from 12 actions that are available in Iskandar Malaysia’s Low Carbon Society Blueprint that can be implemented in the MDP area within IM.
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Awareness through Education Promote Energy Efficiency Promote “Smart Travel Choices” Stock-taking for Low Carbon Lifestyle
Action 7 Community Engagement & Consensus Building Share LCS Information & Gather Opinion through Stakeholder Engagement Public Information on LCS Progress Developing Model for Low Carbon Communities
Action 10 Green and Blue Infrastructure & Rural Resources Regional Green Corridor Network Conservation of Mangrove Forests New Development to Retain Existing Vegetation Low Carbon Farming in Rural Areas Ecotourism & Rural-Cultural Tourism
Action 11 Sustainable Waste Management Sustainable municipal solid waste management Sustainable agricultural waste management Sustainable industrial waste management Sustainable sewage sludge management