A Method To Create A Local LCS Scenario The method is based on the idea of “back casting” to create a local low carbon society scenario.
1) Setting the framework Aspects included in a LCS scenario framework are: the target area, base year, environmental targets and a number of scenarios. The base year is compared with the target year. In Iskandar Malaysia, the target year of GHG emission reduction is 2025. (2) Description of socio-economic assumptions Qualitative future image of lifestyle, economy, industry, land use, transportation and other key aspects is described based on synthesis of official planning documents. (3) Quantification of socio-economic assumptions Values of exogenous variables and parameters are set in order to estimate the future image of (2) above. Based on these values, the ExSS tool computes various socioeconomic indices of the target year. (4) Collection of low-carbon measures Countermeasures for reducing GHG emissions which are envisioned to be available in the target year are identified. Technical data for estimating the countermeasures’ effects on GHG emission reduction are collected. (5) Setting introduction of measures in target year Technological parameters related to energy efficiency are defined. Appropriate criteria for the introduction of countermeasures are outlined. (6) Estimation of GHG emissions in the target year GHG emissions are computed based on the socio-economic indices and assumptions that underline the introduction of countermeasures.
Figure 2 Procedure to create a local LCS scenario Source: Low-carbon Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia brochure October 2010
(7) Confirming measures set and suggestion of policy recommendations Policy set to introduce the measures defined is recommended. Suitability of the policy should be in accordance with the context of the target area towards achieving the highest reduction potential of countermeasures.
Quantitative Estimation Tool: Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) The next step is to quantify the socio -economic assumptions (3) in the district by using a quantitative estimation tool. Figure 3 shows an overview of the Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) that is used to compute and estimate CO2 emission from energy consumption. It consists of seven input parameters (modules), a set of exogenous variables and variables between modules.
& Creative Innovation Belt
JOHOR BAHRU TENGAH MUNICIPAL COUNCIL
LOW CARBON SOCIETY (Tertiary industries)
Figure 3. Quantitative Estimation Tool Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) Source: Low-carbon Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia brochure October 2010
population living in the target area is computed through a labour participation ratio. Passenger transport demand is estimated from population and freight transport demand from industrial output. Energy demand by fuels in each sector is determined by three parameters which are energy service demand per driving force, energy efficiency and fuel share. The process of distributing measures will eventually reduce these parameters, and so GHG emissions.
MPJBT
The project of Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions (2011-2016) under the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) framework aims to develop a methodology for creating Low Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios that will lead to implementable LCS policies that are appropriate for Malaysia, and subsequently transmittable to other Asian countries.
Fixed population data are used in this tool but when it is applied to a smaller region (district, city, etc.), it is concerned that people migrate more easily and population will be determined by demand external to the region (export), labour participation ratio, demographic composition and relationship of commuting with areas outside the region. An “export-based” input-output approach is used to determine the output of industries. Basic industries are industries that produce export goods and these industries will generate non-basic industries (services, etc.) through demands on intermediate input and worker’s consumption in the industrial sector. Labour demand of production processes and
Green Livable City
A key outcome of the project has been the Iskandar Malaysia Low Carbon Society Blueprint (IMLCSBP) 2025 that was launched at UNFCCC’s COP 18, Doha, in November 2012. The IMLCSBP 2025 outlines a total of 281 programs for implementation in IM that are projected to result in a 58% reduction in GHG emission intensity in terms of GDP by 2025 compared to 2005 levels and a 41% reduction in absolute emission compared with the business as usual (BaU) scenario in 2025. We welcome feedback and suggestions. Please do contact us: UTM-Low Carbon Asia Research Centre Room 02-04-01, Block B-12, Faculty of Built Environment, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Johor Bahru, Malaysia. T +607-555 7539 F +607-553 8003 E lowcarbonsociety2011@yahoo.com W www.utm.my/satreps-lcs @2014 UTM-Low Carbon Asia Research Centre Graphic Design © Akmal Hakim
Towards effective implementation of the LCS programs in IM, which covers four local authority (LA) jurisdictions and part of a fifth LA jurisdiction, a set of five LA-specific LCS blueprints are currently being prepared. This brochure presents a preliminary summary of the LCS Blueprint for the Johor Bahru Tengah Municipal Council (Majlis Perbandaran Johor Bahru Tengah, MPJBT).
Established in 2006, covering an area of 221,634 hectares, Iskandar Malaysia (IM) is endowed with an enviable catchment of some 0.8 billion people within a six-hour flight radius. It is set to become an integrated global node that synergises with growth of the global Citystate of Singapore and Indonesia. Population is projected to more than double from 1.35 million in 2005 to over 3 million by 2025, supported by a stable 7-8% annual GDP growth that is primarily driven by high value-added services and manufacturing sectors.
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Majlis Bandaraya Johor Bahru (MBJB)
In transforming IM into a low carbon society, 281 LCS programs have been identified under 12 LCS actions to lower GHG emissions of IM’s development activities. These are organised under three main themes: Green Economy, Green Community and Green Environment. Implementation of the 281 programs is estimated to yield a 12,758 ktCO2eq direct emission reduction in IM in 2025. This is equivalent to a 41% cut back in absolute GHG emission compared with the 2025BaU scenario and a 58% reduction in GHG emission intensity in terms of GDP compared to 2005 levels.
Majlis Perbandaran Pasir Gudang (MPPG) Majlis Perbandaran Kulaijaya (MPKu) Majlis Daerah Pontian (MDP)
Targeted strong growth is achieved while keeping IM’s carbon emission level at bay, inline with IM’s vision to be “A strong sustainable metropolis of international standing”. (Source: CDP 2006)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the MPJBT area in 2025 is expected to be RM49,076 (4.31 times of the performance in 2005). The share of future primary industry sector in MPJBT will increase from 43% (2005) to 57% (2025). Secondary industry sector‘s share is expected to increase from 25% (2005) to 75% (2025). Tertiary industry sector is expected to become a key economic sector in MPJBT (from 16% in 2005 to 84% in 2025).
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Iskandar Malaysia Low Carbon Society (LCS)
Majlis Perbandaran Johor Bahru Tengah (MPJBT), 5 Local Authorities in Iskandar Malaysia
It is envisioned that by 2025, the MPJBT area will become the centre for green livable city & creative innovation belt of tertiary education, creative industries, tourism, entertainment and theme parks, SME, seaport activities, warehousing, distribution, medical and wellness services.
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Population in MPJBT in 2025 is expected to increase to 1,443,921 (2.66 times compared to 2005). Number of households in the MPJBT area will increase from 136,649 (2005) to 363,749 (2025). GDP per capita of the MPJBT area is expected to increase from RM 20,974 (2005) to RM 33,988 (2025)
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Population
Current Socioeconomic Scenario Year Established: 1 March 1978 1:450 000 Flagship: Flagship B Sub-Districts: Pulai, Jelutong, Tanjung Kupang & Tebrau Area: 128,060.25 hectares Population: 542,436 (2005 census)
Kota Iskandar Administrative Center
Flagship B is expected to become Iskandar Malaysia’s major new growth centre due to the high number of catalyst projects that are set to be developed within it. The zone is expected to be home to as many as 500,000 people by 2025. Also the JBT area has the highest household number and population within IM.
Johor Bahru Tengah
Johor Bahru Tengah
0
3 6
12
18
24 Kilometers
Green Livable City & Creative Innovation Belt A clean and prosperous city with vibrant and diverse activities as well as a livable centre for communities to enjoy a better quality of life. JBT is expected to host clusters for local and international tertiary education institutions, creative industries, tourism, entertainment and theme park, SME, seaport activities, warehousing, distribution, medical services and wellness industries.
Marlborough College Malaysia
Johor Bahru Tengah (JBT) encompasses Nusajaya (Flagship B) which houses the new Johor State Administrative Centre; Medini Iskandar Malaysia, an ‘educity’; a medical hub; an industrial logistic cluster and an international tourism resort. Residential and industrial land banks occupy a large portion of the zone’s total area.
542,436
2025
2025/2005
1,443,921
Scenario Quantification
136,649
363,749
2.66
∗
20,974
33,988
1.62
∗
3,949
25,399
6.43
Primary Industry (mil RM)
217
288
1.33
Passenger Transport Demand (mil p-km)
Secondary Industry (mil RM)
38,57
11,581
3.00
Tertiary Industry (mil RM)
7,303
37,207
5.09
Freight Transport Demand (mil t-km)
2,638
9,043
3.43
Figure 1 shows the total carbon emission of the MBJB area by key emission sectors in 2005 (base year), 2025BaU (Business as Usual) and 2025CM (Counter Measures) scenarios.
However, the current GHG scenario could be improved if control measures are introduced. An expected reduction of 45% (4,526 ktCO2eq) may be achieved as compared to 2025BaU.
Puteri Harbour
The primary economic activities in this zone are State and Federal administrative functions; mixed property development and logistics. Based on the Comprehensive Development Plan (CDP), it will also serve as a hub for creative arts and entertainment, educational institutions, medical facilities, tourism, biotechnology and hi-tech manufactur-
Specifically, emission of the waste sector can be reduced up to 79% (-358 ktCO2eq) while the reduction for the passenger transport and freight transport sectors are respectively 85% (-1,236.8 ktCO2eq) & 36% (-626 ktCO2eq), commercial sector 47% (-1,020 ktCO2eq), residential sector 45% (-830.7 ktCO2eq) and industry sector 18% (455 ktCO2eq).
Medini D’Residences new urban center
2005
2025 BaU
2025CM
2025BaU/2005
2025CM/2005
2025CM/2025BaU
772
2401
1504
3.11
1.95
0.63
3,428
10,159
5,633
2.96
1.64
0.55
Per capita CO2 emissions (tCO2eq)
6.3
7.0
3.9
1.11
0.62
0.56
GHG intensity (ktCO2qeq / mil.RM)
0.30
0.21
0.11
0.7
0.37
0.52
Action 3 Low Carbon Urban Governance Development Planning for Low Carbon Iskandar Malaysia Planning Control Process, Procedures and Mechanism for Materializing LCS in Iskandar Malaysia Development of Necessary Human Capital for Operationalizing and Implementing Iskandar Malaysia’s Low Carbon Society Vision Iskandar Malaysia LCS Monitoring, Reporting and Publication System
Establishment of Advanced Energy System Provision of Incentives and Subsidies and Derivation of Tariff Rates
Action 5 Green Energy System & Renewable Energy
∗ ∗
Promoting Green Building in New Construction Energy Efficiency Improvement of Existing Buildings (Retrofitting) Green Construction Green Building Design and Technology
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
Awareness through Education Smart Working Style Promote Energy Efficiency Promote “Smart Travel Choices” Stock-taking for Low Carbon Lifestyle
∗
Action 6 Low Carbon Lifestyle
Action 8 Walkable, Safe, Livable City Design
∗ ∗ ∗
Designing Walkable City Centers and Neighbourhoods Designing the Cyclist-friendly City Designing the Safe City (from crime) Designing Civilised & Livable Streets through Traffic Calming
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
Promote Polycentric Growth Pattern in IM Promote Compact Urban Development Promote Transit Supportive Land Use Planning Develop the ‘Smart Digital City’
∗
Table 2: Energy demand, GHG and emission intensity of MPJBT area
Action 2 Green Industry
Action 4 Green Building and Construction
∗ ∗ ∗
∗
Figure 1. GHG emission by sector
GHG emissions (ktCO2eq)
∗
2.66 4.31
Unit
∗
No. of households
49,076
Final energy Demand (ktoe)
Decarbonising industries Green employment in existing industries Human capital development in green industry .
2025/2005
GHG emission of MPJBT in year 2005 is 3,428 ktCO2eq, the value is expected to increase 196 % to 10,159 ktCO2eq in year 2025 if no mitigation measures are taken.
This diversity creates a wealth of investment opportunities in the form of joint ventures or land acquisitions for parties interested in being part of Iskandar Malaysia’s growth. Key players already occupying Flagship B include Iskandar Investment Bhd, S P Setia and UEM Sunrise.
∗ ∗ ∗
2025
11,377
GDP (mil RM)
∗
2005
GDP per capita (RM)
Action 1 Integrated Green Transportation Integrated Public Transportation Diffusion of Low Carbon Vehicles Enhancing Traffic Flow Conditions and Performance Green Freight Transportation
∗
Table 1: Estimation Results of Scenario Quantification in 2025, MPJBT 2005
∗ ∗ ∗
∗
Passenger transport demand in the MPJBT area will increase from 3,949 million passenger-kilometres (2005) to 25,399 million passenger-kilometres (2025). Freight transport demand will increase from 2,638 million tonne-kilometres (2005) to 9,043 million tonne-kilometres (2025).
Scenario Quantification
There are 10 actions selected from 12 actions that have been identified in the Iskandar Malaysia Low Carbon Society Blueprint that could be implemented in the MPJBT area
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
Action 9 Smart Urban Growth
Action 10 Green and Blue Infrastructure and Rural Resources Promote Urban Forests (urban recreation and green lungs) New Development to Retain Existing Vegetation
Action 11 Sustainable Waste Management Sustainable municipal solid waste management Sustainable industrial waste management Sustainable sewage sludge management Sustainable construction and demolition waste management