A Method To Create A Local LCS Scenario The method is based on the idea of “back casting” to create a local low-carbon society scenario.
(1) Setting the framework Aspects included in a LCS scenario framework are: the target area, base year, environmental targets and a number of scenarios. The base year is compared with the target year. In Iskandar Malaysia, the target year of GHG emission reduction is 2025. (2) Description of socio-economic assumptions Qualitative future image of lifestyle, economy, industry, land use, transportation and other key aspects is described based on synthesis of official planning documents. (3) Quantification of socio-economic assumptions Values of exogenous variables and parameters are set in order to estimate the future image of (2) above. Based on these values, the ExSS tool computes various socioeconomic indices of the target year. (4) Collection of low-carbon measures Countermeasures for reducing GHG emissions which are envisioned to be available in the target year are identified. Technical data for estimating the countermeasures’ effects on GHG emission reduction are collected. (5) Setting introduction of measures in target year Technological parameters related to energy efficiency are defined. Appropriate criteria for the introduction of countermeasures are outlined. (6) Estimation of GHG emissions in the target year GHG emissions are computed based on the socio-economic indices and assumptions that underline the introduction of countermeasures.
Figure 2. Procedure to create a local LCS scenario Source: Low-carbon Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia brochure October 2010
(7) Confirming measures set and suggestion of policy recommendations. Policy set to introduce the measures defined is recommended. Suitability of the policy should be in accordance with the context of the target area towards achieving the highest reduction potential of countermeasures.
Quantitative Estimation Tool Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) The next step is to quantify the socio -economic assumptions (3) in the district by using a quantitative estimation tool. Figure 3 shows an overview of the Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) that is used to compute and estimate CO2 emission from energy consumption. It consists of seven input parameters (modules), a set of exogenous variables and variables between modules.
Integrated Logistic Hub
KULAIJAYA MUNICIPAL COUNCIL LOW CARBON SOCIETY
MPKu
The project of Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions (2011-2016) under the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) framework aims to develop a methodology for creating Low Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios that will lead to implementable LCS policies that are appropriate for Malaysia, and subsequently transmittable to other Asian countries.
(Tertiary industries)
Fixed population data are used in this tool but when it is applied to a smaller region (district, city, etc.), it is concerned that people migrate more easily and population will be determined by demand external to the region (export), labour participation ratio, demographic composition and relationship of commuting with areas outside the region. An “export-based” input-output approach is used to determine the output of industries. Basic industries are industries that produce export goods and these industries will generate non-basic industries (services, etc.) through demands on intermediate input and worker’s consumption in the industrial sector. Labour demand of production processes and
Smart
A key outcome of the project has been the Iskandar Malaysia Low Carbon Society Blueprint (IMLCSBP) 2025 that was launched at UNFCCC’s COP 18, Doha, in November 2012. The IMLCSBP 2025 outlines a total of 281 programs for implementation in IM that are projected to result in a 58% reduction in GHG emission intensity in terms of GDP by 2025 compared to 2005 levels and a 41% reduction in absolute emission compared with the business as usual (BaU) scenario in 2025. Figure 3. Quantitative Estimation Tool Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) Source: Low-carbon Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia brochure October 2010
population living in the target area is computed through a labour participation ratio. Passenger transport demand is estimated from population and freight transport demand from industrial output. Energy demand by fuels in each sector is determined by three parameters which are energy service demand per driving force, energy efficiency and fuel share. The process of distributing measures will eventually reduce these parameters, and so GHG emissions.
We welcome feedback and suggestions. Please do contact us: UTM-Low Carbon Asia Research Centre Room 02-04-01, Block B-12, Faculty of Built Environment, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Johor Bahru, Malaysia. T +607-555 7539 F +607-553 8003 E lowcarbonsociety2011@yahoo.com W www.utm.my/satreps-lcs @2014 UTM-Low Carbon Asia Research Centre Graphic Design © Akmal Hakim
Towards effective implementation of the LCS programs in IM, which covers four local authority (LA) jurisdictions and part of a fifth LA jurisdiction, a set of five LA-specific LCS blueprints are currently being prepared. This brochure presents a preliminary summary of the LCS Blueprint for the Kulaijaya Municipal Council (Majlis Perbandaran Kulaijaya, MPKu).
5 Local Authorities in Iskandar Malaysia
Established in 2006, covering an area of 221,634 hectares, Iskandar Malaysia (IM) is endowed with an enviable catchment of some 0.8 billion people within a six-hour flight radius. It is set to become an integrated global node that synergises with growth of the global Citystate of Singapore and Indonesia. Population is projected to more than double from 1.35 million in 2005 to over 3 million by 2025, supported by a stable 7-8% annual GDP growth that is primarily driven by high value-added services and manufacturing sectors.
It is envisioned that by 2025 the MPKu area will host clusters for distribution and logistics services, airport and air cargo activities, high-tech industries, aviation and aerospace industries, R&D facilities, retail and shopping, oil palm plantation and agro-business.
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Iskandar Malaysia Low Carbon Society (LCS)
Majlis Perbandaran Johor Bahru Tengah (MPJBT),
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Majlis Bandaraya Johor Bahru (MBJB) Majlis Perbandaran Pasir Gudang (MPPG) Majlis Perbandaran Kulaijaya (MPKu) Majlis Daerah Pontian (MDP)
Targeted strong growth is achieved in IM while keeping its carbon emission level at bay, in line with IM’s vision to be “A strong sustainable metropolis of international standing”. (Source: CDP 2006)
In transforming IM into a low carbon society, 281 LCS programs have been identified under 12 LCS actions to lower GHG emissions of IM’s development activities. These are organised under three main themes: Green Economy, Green Community and Green Environment. Implementation of the 281 programs is estimated to yield a 12,758 ktCO2eq direct emission reduction in IM in 2025. This is equivalent to a 41% cut back in absolute GHG emission compared with the 2025BaU scenario and a 58% reduction in GHG emission intensity in terms of GDP compared to 2005 levels.
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the MPKu area in 2025 is expected to be RM5,539 million (3.67 times of the 2005 GDP). The share of future primary industry sector in MPKu will decrease from 10% (2005) to 5% (2025). The secondary industry sector’s share is expected to decrease from 41% (2005) to 36% (2025). Tertiary industry sector will become the main economic sector in MPKu, its share rising from 49% in 2005 to 59% in 2025.
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∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
Population in MPKu in 2025 is expected to increase to 251,579 (1.44 times compared to 2005). Number of households in the MPKu area will increase from 39,777 (2005) to 57,320 (2025). GDP per capita in the MPKu area is expected to increase from RM31,727 (2005) to RM80,869 (2025).
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There are 8 actions selected from 12 actions that are available in Iskandar Malaysia’s Low Carbon Society Blueprint that may be implemented in the MPKu area.
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Passenger transport demand in the MPKu area will increase from 1,124 million passenger-kilometres (2005) to 6,393 million passenger-kilometres (2025). Freight transport demand will increase from 1,284 million tonne-kilometres (2005) to 3,749 million tonne-kilometres (2025).
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Table 1: Estimation Results of Scenario Quantification in 2025, MPKu Scenario Quantification
Year Established: September 2004 Flagship: Flagship E Sub-Districts: Kulai, Senai, Sedenak Area: 74,650.98 hectares Total Population: 174,584 (2005 census )
Current Socioeconomic Scenario
2005
2025
2025/2005
Scenario Quantification
2005
2025
2025/2005
174,584
251,579
1.44
No. of households
39,777
57,320
1. 44
5,539
20,345
3.67
GDP per capita (RM)
31,727
80.869
2.55
Primary Industry (mil RM)
539
934
1.73
Passenger Transport Demand (mil p-km)
1,124
6,393
5.68
Secondary Industry (mil RM)
2,271
7,328
3.23
Tertiary Industry (mil RM)
2,728
12,083
4.43
Population GDP (mil RM)
Being the only international airport serving the Iskandar Malaysia area, Senai International Airport is able to handle up to 3.5 million passengers and 80,000 tonnes of cargo per annum.
1:450 000
Kulaijaya
Senai International Airport
Freight Transport Demand (mil t-km)
Senai Free Zone is a dedicated industrial area gazetted with free zone status. It is planned to cater for regional distribution and warehousing activities, logistics provider and exportoriented manufacturing base.
12
18
24 Kilometers
Smart Integrated Logistic Hub Key economic activities of the Smart Integrated Logistic Hub in Kulaijaya include distribution and logistics, airport and air cargo activities, high tech industries, aviation and aerospace industries. The hub will promote green goods handling activities that take place between regional corridors and clusters. This concept also aims to cater to sustainable worldwide logistics development towards huge growth of global goods flows.
2.92
GHG emission of the MPKu area in year 2005 is about 2,297 ktCO2eq which doubles to 4,423 ktCO2eq in year 2025 if no mitigation measures are taken.
MSC Cyberport is to be developed on a 150-acre freehold land in Indahpura, Kulai. It is designed to have world-class infrastructure and a clustering effect that will create an environment to nurture techno-preneurs and grow businesses.
3 6
3,749
Figure 1 shows the total carbon emission of the MPKu area by key emission sectors in 2005 (base year), 2025BaU (Business as Usual) and 2025CM (Counter Measures) scenarios.
Senai Free Zone
0
1,284
However, the scenario will be better if mitigation measures are introduced. An estimated 41% GHG reduction (1,809 ktCO2eq) may be achieved under the 2025CM as compared to 2025BaU scenario. Specifically, emission of the waste sector can be reduced up to 67% (-440ktCO2eq) while the reduction for the transport sector is 54% (-605ktCO2eq), commercial sector 47% (-306ktCO2eq), residential sector 45% (131ktCO2eq), and industry sector 19% (-327ktCO2eq).
MSC Cyberport
Officially opened on December 11, 2011, JPO is Johor’s finest shopping outlet. The 175,000 sq ft phase I of this shopping outlet features more than 80 leading designers and branded stores.
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∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
Figure 1. GHG emission by sector
Table 2: Energy demand, GHG and emission intensity of MPKu region Unit
2005
2025 BaU
2025CM
2025BaU/2005
2025CM/2005
2025CM/2025BaU
358
986
689
2.75
1.92
0.70
GHG emissions (ktCO2eq)
2,297
4,423
2,614
1.93
1.14
0.59
Per capita CO2 emissions (tCO2eq)
13.1
17.6
10.4
1.34
0.79
0.59
GHG intensity (ktCO2qeq / mil.RM)
0.41
0.22
0.13
0.54
0.32
0.59
Final energy Demand (ktoe) Johor Premium Outlets (JPO)
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Action 1 Integrated Green Transportation Integrated Public Transportation Improvement of JB - Singapore, JB-KL Connectivity Diffusion of Low Carbon Vehicles Enhancing Traffic Flow Conditions and Performance Green Transportation in Rural Areas
Action 2 Green Industry IM as Global Hub for Green Industry Decarbonizing Industries Green Employment in Existing Industries Human Capital Development in Green Industry
Action 3 Low Carbon Urban Governance Development Planning for Low Carbon Iskandar Malaysia Planning Control Process, Procedures and Mechanism for Materializing LCS in Iskandar Malaysia Development of Necessary Human Capital for Operationalizing and Implementing Iskandar Malaysia’s Low Carbon Society Vision Iskandar Malaysia LCS Monitoring, Reporting and Publication System
Action 4 Green Building and Construction Promoting Green Building in New Construction Energy Efficiency Improvement of Existing Buildings (Retrofitting) Green Construction Green Building Design and Technology
Action 5 Green Energy System and Renewable Energy Promotion of Renewable/ Alternative Energy Establishment of Advanced Energy System Provision of Incentives and Subsidies and Derivation of Tariff Rates Rural Green Buildings
Action 6 Low Carbon Lifestyle Awareness through Education Smart Working Style Promote Energy Efficiency Promote “Smart Travel Choices” Stock-taking for Low Carbon Lifestyle
Action 7 Community Engagement & Consensus Building Share LCS Information & Gather Opinion through Stakeholder Engagement Public Information on LCS Progress Developing Model for Low Carbon Communities
Action 9 Smart Urban Growth Promote Polycentric Growth Pattern in IM Promote Compact Urban Development Promote Transit Supportive Land Use Planning Develop the ’Smart Digital Planning’
Action 10 Green & Blue Infrastructure& Rural Resources Regional Green Corridor Network New Development of Retain Existing Vegetation Low Carbon Farming in Rural Areas
Action 11 Sustainable Waste Management Sustainable Municipal Solid Waste Management Sustainable Agricultural Waste Management Sustainable Sewage Sludge Management Sustainable Construction and Demolition Waste