A Method To Create A Local LCS Scenario The method is based on the idea of “back casting” to create a local low-carbon society scenario.
(1) Setting the framework Aspects included in a LCS scenario framework are: the target area, base year, environmental targets and a number of scenarios. The base year is compared with the target year. In Iskandar Malaysia, the target year of GHG emission reduction is 2025. (2) Description of socio-economic assumptions Qualitative future image of lifestyle, economy, industry, land use, transportation and other key aspects is described based on synthesis of official planning documents. (3) Quantification of socio-economic assumptions Values of exogenous variables and parameters are set in order to estimate the future image of (2) above. Based on these values, the ExSS tool computes various socioeconomic indices of the target year. (4) Collection of low-carbon measures Countermeasures for reducing GHG emissions which are envisioned to be available in the target year are identified. Technical data for estimating the countermeasures’ effects on GHG emission reduction are collected. (5) Setting introduction of measures in target year Technological parameters related to energy efficiency are defined. Appropriate criteria for the introduction of countermeasures are outlined. (6) Estimation of GHG emissions in the target year GHG emissions are computed based on the socio-economic indices and assumptions that underline the introduction of countermeasures.
Figure 2. Procedure to create a local LCS scenario Source: Low-carbon Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia brochure October 2010
(7) Confirming measures set and suggestion of policy recommendations Policy set to introduce the measures defined is recommended. Suitability of the policy should be in accordance with the context of the target area towards achieving the highest reduction potential of countermeasures.
Green & Clean Industrial Port City
Quantitative Estimation Tool Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) The next step is to quantify the socio -economic assumptions (3) in the district by using a quantitative estimation tool. Figure 3 shows an overview of the Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) that is used to compute and estimate CO2 emission from energy consumption. It consists of seven input parameters (modules), a set of exogenous variables and variables between modules. Fixed population data are used in this tool but when it is applied to a smaller region (district, city, etc.), it is concerned that people migrate more easily and population will be determined by demand external to the region (export), labour participation ratio, demographic composition and relationship of commuting with areas outside the region. An “export-based” input-output approach is used to determine the output of industries. Basic industries are industries that produce export goods and these industries will generate non-basic industries (services, etc.) through demands on intermediate input and worker’s consumption in the industrial sector. Labour demand of production processes and
PASIR GUDANG MUNICIPAL COUNCIL LOW CARBON SOCIETY
MPPG
The project of Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions (2011-2016) under the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) framework aims to develop a methodology for creating Low Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios that will lead to implementable LCS policies that are appropriate for Malaysia, and subsequently transmittable to other Asian countries.
(Tertiary industries)
A key outcome of the project has been the Iskandar Malaysia Low Carbon Society Blueprint (IMLCSBP) 2025 that was launched at UNFCCC’s COP 18, Doha, in November 2012. The IMLCSBP 2025 outlines a total of 281 programs for implementation in IM that are projected to result in a 58% reduction in GHG emission intensity in terms of GDP by 2025 compared to 2005 levels and a 41% reduction in absolute emission compared with the business as usual (BaU) scenario in 2025. Figure 3. Quantitative Estimation Tool Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) Source: Low-carbon Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia brochure October 2010
population living in the target area is computed through a labour participation ratio. Passenger transport demand is estimated from population and freight transport demand from industrial output. Energy demand by fuels in each sector is determined by three parameters which are energy service demand per driving force, energy efficiency and fuel share. The process of distributing measures will eventually reduce these parameters, and so GHG emissions.
We welcome feedback and suggestions. Please contact us. UTM-Low Carbon Asia Research Centre Room 02-04-01, Block B-12, Faculty of Built Environment, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Johor, Malaysia. T +607-555 7539 F +607-553 8003 E lowcarbonsociety2011@yahoo.com W www.utm.my/satreps-lcs @2014 UTM-Low Carbon Asia Research Centre Graphic Design © Akmal Hakim
Towards effective implementation of the LCS programs in IM, which covers four local authority (LA) jurisdictions and part of a fifth LA jurisdiction, a set of five LA-specific LCS blueprints are currently being prepared. This brochure presents a preliminary summary of the LCS Blueprint for the Pasir Gudang Municipal Council (Majlis Perbandaran Pasir Gudang, MPPG).
Established in 2006, covering an area of 221,634 hectares, Iskandar Malaysia (IM) is endowed with an enviable catchment of some 0.8 billion people within a six-hour flight radius. It is set to become an integrated global node that synergises with growth of the global Citystate of Singapore and Indonesia. Population is projected to more than double from 1.35 million in 2005 to over 3 million by 2025, supported by a stable 7-8% annual GDP growth that is primarily driven by high value-added services and manufacturing sectors.
♦
Iskandar Malaysia Low Carbon Society (LCS)
Majlis Perbandaran Johor Bahru Tengah (MPJBT), 5 Local Authorities in Iskandar Malaysia
It is envisioned that by 2025, the MPPG area will support the concentration of Liquid and Bulk Cargo Port Activities, Warehouse and Distribution Activities, Manufacturing, Petrochemical and Oleo-chemical Industries, Oil and Gas, Palm Oil Plantation & Agro-Business.
Majlis Bandaraya Johor Bahru (MBJB) Majlis Perbandaran Pasir Gudang (MPPG) Majlis Perbandaran Kulaijaya (MPKu) Majlis Daerah Pontian (MDP)
Targeted strong growth is achieved in IM while keeping its carbon emission level at bay, in line with IM’s vision to be “A strong sustainable metropolis of international standing”. (Source: CDP, 2006)
In transforming IM into a low carbon society, 281 LCS programs have been identified under 12 LCS actions to lower GHG emissions of IM’s development activities. These are organised under three main themes: Green Economy, Green Community and Green Environment. Implementation of the 281 programs is estimated to yield a 12,758 ktCO2eq direct emission reduction in IM in 2025. This is equivalent to a 41% cut back in absolute GHG emission compared with the 2025BaU scenario and a 58% reduction in GHG emission intensity in terms of GDP compared to 2005 levels.
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the MPPG area in 2025 is expected to be RM29,118 (3.6 times of the performance in 2005). The share of future primary industry sector in MPPG will decrease from 2% (2005) to 1% (2025). Secondary industry sector’s share is expected to remain constant to 75% for 2025 and remain as a key economic sector in MPPG. Tertiary industry sector will increase from 23% (2005) to 24% (2025)
Population in the MPPG area in 2025 is expected to increase 329,509 (2.16 times compared to 2005). Number of households in the MPPG area will increase from 152,564 (2005) to 329,509 (2025). GDP per capita of the MPPG area is expected to increase from RM 52,961 (2005) to RM 88,369 (2025)
♦ ♦
Passenger transport demand in MPPG area will increase from 895 million passenger-kilometers (2005) to 5,391 million passenger-kilometres (2025). Freight transport demand will increase from 1,873 million tonne-kilometres (2005) to 5,365 million tonne-kilometres (2025).
Table 1: Estimation Results of Scenario Quantification in 2025, MPPG Scenario Quantification
Year Established: July 2008 Flagship: Flagship D Sub-Districts: Sungai Tiram & 1:450 000 Part of Plentong Area: 30,350 hectares Total Population: 152,564 (2005 census )
Current Socioeconomic Scenario
Johor Port services in Pasir Gudang include cargo handling for a diverse range of cargo. The adjacent Pasir Gudang Industrial Park covers 3,764 acres of land and currently has more than 300 manufacturing companies with the largest edible oil tankage facility.
0
3 6
12
18
24 Kilometers
The key MPPG region economic activities consist of Liquid and Bulk Cargo Port Activities, Manufacturing and Petrochemical and Oleo-chemicals. Green and Clean Industry Port City will promote environmentally industries through cleaner production by manufacture eco-products and efficient energy management. This concept also aims to control the pollution from wastewater and industrial waste by recycling programs. To ensure the sustainability of residential area in MPPG, green community offering urban greening through practicing eco-lifestyles and develop monitoring systems.
Pasir Gudang Residential Area
There are many residential developments in the Pasir Gudang area. However, industrial activity has caused air pollution issue. Therefore, the sustainable development of Pasir Gudang requires continuous efforts to clean the environment to minimize adverse impacts on human health.
IM as Global Hub for Green Industry Decarbonizing Industries Green Employment in Existing Industries Human Capital Development in Green Industry
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
2005
2025
2025/2005
152,564
329,509
2.16
No. of households
34,859
75,289
2.16
8,080
29,118
3.60
GDP per capita (RM)
52,961
88,369
1.67
∗ ∗
Primary Industry (mil RM)
134
231
1.72
Passenger Transport Demand (mil p-km)
895
5,391
6.02
∗ ∗
Secondary Industry (mil RM)
6,048
21,832
3.61
Tertiary Industry (mil RM)
1,899
7,055
3.72
Freight Transport Demand (mil t-km)
1,873
5,365
2.86
Figure 1 shows the total carbon emission of the MPPG area by key emission sectors in 2005 (base year), 2025BaU (Business as Usual) and 2025CM (Counter Measures) scenarios.
However, the scenario will be better if mitigation measures are introduced. An estimated 27% GHG reduction (2,193 ktCO2eq) may be achieved under the 2025CM as compared to the 2025BaU scenario.
Tanjung Langsat Industrial Complex is an extension of the existing Pasir Gudang Industrial Area and comprises an area measuring 4,198.52 acres dedicated to light, medium and heavy industries. In complementing Pasir Gudang Port, Tanjung Langsat Port (TLP) handles bulk cargo such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and dangerous chemical.
Green & Clean Industrial Port City
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
Scenario Quantification
Tanjung Langsat Port and Industrial Complex
Pasir Gudang
∗
2025/2005
Population
Specifically, emission of the waste sector can be reduced up to 69% (-179ktCO2eq) while the reduction for the transport and commercial sector is 47% (624ktCO2eq), residential sector 45% (-172ktCO2eq), industry sector 18% (-1,113ktCO2eq), by the year of 2025 (CM) compared to 2005 (BaU) or 41% as total carbon emission reduction for all sectors.
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
∗ ∗ ∗
Figure 1. GHG emission by sector
Table 2: Energy demand, GHG and emission intensity of MPPG region Unit
2005
2025 BaU
2025CM
2025BaU/2005
2025CM/2005
2025CM/2025BaU
Final energy Demand(ktoe)
659
2,200
1,809
3.34
2.75
0.82
GHG emissions (ktCO2eq)
2,673
8,272
6,079
3.40
2.27
0.74
Per capita CO2 emissions (tCO2eq)
17.5
25.1
18.4
1.45
1.05
0.73
GHG intensity (ktCO2eq / mil.RM)
0.33
0.28
0.21
0.85
0.64
0.75
Action 1 Integrated Green Transportation Integrated Public Transportation Diffusion of Low Carbon Vehicles Enhancing Traffic Flow Conditions and Performance Green Freight Transportation
2025
GHG emission of MPPG area in year 2005 is about 2,673 ktCO2eq, the value will increase 209% to 8,272 ktCO2eq in year 2025 if no mitigation measures are taken.
Legend
∗ ∗ ∗
2005
GDP (mil RM)
Johor Port and Pasir Gudang Industrial Park
There are 10 actions selected from 12 actions that are available in Iskandar Malaysia’s Low Carbon Society Blueprint that may be implemented in the MPPG area.
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
Action 2 Green Industry
Action 3 Low Carbon Urban Governance Development Planning for Low Carbon Iskandar Malaysia Planning Control Process, Procedures and Mechanism for Materializing LCS in Iskandar Malaysia Development of Necessary Human Capital for Operationalizing and Implementing Iskandar Malaysia’s Low Carbon Society Vision Iskandar Malaysia LCS Monitoring, Reporting and Publication System
Action 4 Green Building and Construction Promoting Green Building in New Construction Energy Efficiency Improvement of Existing Buildings (Retrofitting) Green Construction Green Building Design and Technology
Action 5 Green Energy System and Renewable Energy Promotion of Renewable/ Alternative Energy Establishment of Advanced Energy System Provision of Incentives and Subsidies and Derivation of Tariff Rates
Action 6 Low Carbon Lifestyle Awareness through Education Promote Energy Efficiency Promote “Smart Travel Choices” Stock-taking for Low Carbon Lifestyle
Action 8 Walkable, Safe, Livable City Design Designing Walkable City Centers and Neighborhoods Designing the Cyclist-friendly City Designing the Safe City (from crime) Designing Civilized & Livable Streets through Traffic Calming
Action 10 Green and Blue Infrastructure and Rural Resources Promote Urban Forests (urban recreation and green lungs) Conservation of Mangrove Forests New Development to Retain Existing Vegetation
Action 11 Sustainable Waste Management Sustainable municipal solid waste management Sustainable industrial waste management Sustainable sewage sludge management
Action 12 Clean Air Environment Clean Air Quality Improve Regional Air Quality