Advising the ONS on the Dynamic Population Model

Connecting Generations researchers are advising the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in their quest to transform the way population statistics are produced.

Dr Jason Hilton, Professor Peter Smith, Professor Jakub Bijak and Professor Eren Dodd, as well as Dr Joanne Ellison and Dr Andrew Hind, have been providing advice to the ONS in the areas of Bayesian statistical modelling and the estimation of demographic rates.

The Dynamic Population Model (DPM) developed in collaboration with Dr John Bryant, has now been put forward by ONS as a proposed future method for producing their population statistics. Over previously used techniques, the method provides more timely subnational population estimates that allow ONS to better respond to user needs. The estimates allow different sources of data to be used in a coherent way and contribute to the Office for National Statistics ‘Transformation of official statistics’ agenda, to develop admin-based population estimates.

The DPM is still developing, but the initial published results for 331 local authorities in England and Wales show the potential of this approach for future population statistics production. The approach is changing the way in which official population statistics are derived, from counting of people to using statistical models to reconcile different sources of demographic data.

Further reading

Dynamic population model, improvements to data sources and methodology for local authorities, England and Wales: 2011 to 2022 (ONS)

Admin-based population estimates for local authorities in England and Wales (ONS)

Advising on the ONS Dynamic Population Model (CPC-CG news)