New evidence on what determines asylum seekers’ country of choice

The arrival of asylum seekers since 2015 has presented a serious challenge for EU countries. While flows of asylum seekers have been welcomed by some countries, others have been more restrictive and concerned about the burden of hosting them.

Professor Jackline Wahba and Dr Valentina Di Iasio have been looking at the effect of policies in deterring asylum seekers. They examined what drives first-time asylum seekers to apply for asylum in particular destinations within the EU by exploring EUROSTAT data on asylum applications to the EU between 2008-2020. The study shows that the strongest pull factor for asylum seekers to a destination is social networks, measured in terms of previous asylum applications and previous stocks of migrants from the same origin. This might be due to social networks transmitting information about routes and destinations or due to the help of friends and families to join.

The results show that economic factors are not as influential as social networks, and asylum seekers are not as attracted by the generosity of the welfare state as they are by social networks. The findings also suggest that access to the labour market and employment rights have a modest role in attracting asylum seekers.

These findings are important for policymakers as some of the policies aiming to deter asylum seekers do not seem to be a real deterrence. For example, policies that restrict access to welfare systems or the labour market have a modest impact on decision-making and therefore are not very effective in reducing the number of asylum applicants. In particular, banning asylum seekers from employment leads asylum seekers to become more dependent on public spending in the short term, and could result in exploitation. This also leads to negative long-term effects with respect to integration. Lifting the employment ban seems to be more cost-effective and better for the integration of refugees in the long term. The work was published in The Conversation and as a podcast

Professor Wahba shared research evidence with European policy experts on “Attracting Skills and Talent to the EU: What should we focus on?” With other experts, she also gave feedback to the European Commission on their communication to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions on ‘Attracting Skills and Talent to the EU’. Professor Wahba shared insights on the proposed operational and legislative initiatives to attract skills and talent to the EU and discussed policy options based on research evidence.

Further reading

Seeking asylum in Europe: Where do people go and why? (CPC-CG Policy Briefing 69)

The determinants of refugees’ destinations: Where do refugees locate within the EU? (QuantMig D3.4)

Asylum seekers’ choice of country is mostly driven by personal networks, not economy (Population Europe Policy Insight)

Hotels and employment aren’t major ‘pull factors’ for refugees –here’s what really draws people to move (The Conversation)

Debunking migration myths: the real reasons people move, and why most migration happens in the global south (The Conversation Weekly podcast)