Improving National Population Projections

Professor Ann Berrington is collaborating with the Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS) and the Northern Ireland Statistical Research Agency (NISRA) to enable fertility research findings to be used in National Population Projections (NPPs). National Population Projections are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.

The research includes small area fertility estimation, fertility intentions data (from the Gender and Generations Survey) and young people’s transitions to adulthood and changing living arrangements. The work uses ONS Longitudinal Study data, The National Records for Scotland Scottish Longitudinal Study data and the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study data. Through mutual sharing, Professor Berrington is communicating the findings of the research to the ONS Demographic Analysis Unit, the ONS Population Projections Team, NRS and NISRA who are integrating the findings into the assumptions for NPPs. The collaboration resulted in the CPCCG Working Paper ‘Estimating the 2011 total fertility rate for England & Wales and Scotland using alternative data sources’.

Connecting Generations expertise is also being used for setting the migration assumptions of the NPPs. Professor Jakub Bijak participated in the ONS NPP migration expert advisory panel (December 2023), sharing his knowledge of the short and long-term prospects for international migration. This knowledge was used in the ONS ‘National population projections: 2021-based interim’ which was released in January 2024.

To feed expertise into national statistics more broadly, Professor Jane Falkingham sits on the National Statistician’s Expert User Advisory Committee (NSEUAC). Professor Hill Kulu is a member of the Expert Advisory Group on Population and Migration at the Scottish Government. Professor

Falkingham, Professor Berrington, and Professor Kulu met with UK Permanent Secretaries for a Strategy Seminar on ‘How the UK population is changing and why it matters’. Professor Berrington and Professor Kulu discussed their research on attitudes to family formation at the Population and Migration Policy Unit of the Scottish Government. Professor Berrington also produced a brief on the impact of global trends on domestic policy for the UK Government Cabinet Office Economic and Domestic Affairs Strategy Team, following a meeting with the Cabinet Office.

Further reading

Estimating the 2011 total fertility rate for England & Wales and Scotland using alternative data sources (CPCCG working paper 106)

National population projections: 2021-based interim (ONS)