TACKLING THE GROWING DROUGHT CHALLENGE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND BEYOND

The big—and growing—climate focus in the U.S. has been drought in the West. IE researchers are studying the unprecedented drought in California and also are keeping a close eye on the worsening situation in the Colorado River Basin and elsewhere, which could adversely affect water supplies in the region. Two major efforts are bringing much more interdisciplinary science to focus on the looming Colorado River water crisis. First, UA scholars teamed up this year with other notable experts from the Southwest to establish the Colorado River Research Group. The group’s website

(WWW.COLORADORIVERRESEARCHGROUP.ORG) has a growing number of regular policy reports that are intended to provide an independent, scientific voice for the future of the Colorado River, and the group works closely with others interested in safeguarding the services the river provides to Arizona and the other six states and Mexico that receive allocations from it.

At the same time, IE scientists continue to coordinate a large National Science Foundation project aimed at understanding the risk of prolonged drought in coming decades and how well we can simulate drought risk using the nation’s best Earth system climate models. This collaborative effort with the National Center for Atmospheric Research and others has a global focus on regions with a notable—and likely growing—risk of decades-long drought. These regions include the Mediterranean, sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Australia, the Amazon, and the Southwest U.S. “Unfortunately, one of our first big findings is that our state-of-the-art Earth system models all underestimate the risk of multi-decadal megadrought,” Jonathan Overpeck said. “Moreover, as global warming continues, this megadrought risk goes up significantly.”

Combined with other work recently published by IE scientists, this means that Arizona’s water supply and forest health are significantly more threatened by ongoing warming than previously thought. Sober news, but thanks to these new results, Arizona and the rest of the Southwest have the opportunity to get out in front of a looming climate and water crisis.

ELEPHANT BUTTE LAKE, NEW MEXICO. PHOTO CREDIT: ZACK GUIDO.