ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE RISK AND ADAPTABILITY ON DOD FACILITIES

LANDING CRAFT UTILITY BOATS LOWER THEIR RAMPS ON THE BEACH AT NAVAL AMPHIBIOUS BASE CORONADO. PHOTO CREDIT: MASS COMMUNICATION SPECIALIST 3RD CLASS MIKE LEPORATI.

On the U.S. Naval Base Coronado near San Diego, a thin strip of land called “the strand” supports a road with beaches on either side. As sea levels rise, that strand could disappear, making travel and other daily operations on the base nearly impossible. That is why IE co-investigators Gregg Garfin and Jonathan Overpeck, principal investigator Rafe Sagarin (see page 29), and other UA researchers spent the year working with managers there and at other U.S. Department of Defense facilities in the Southwest to assess the potential impacts of climate change. “A key goal of this project is to raise awareness about climate-related risks at these defense installations and the ways in which climate interacts with other factors,” said Garfin, IE’s deputy director for science translation and outreach. “Imagine managing all of the weather and climate-affected systems in a small city, like transportation, water resources, emergency management, and you get an idea of the complexity of the issues at hand.” Now in its last year, the $1.2 million, three-year project, funded by the Department of Defense, involves assessing the best methods for responding to regional climate and ecological conditions, using forecasting models, and developing new strategies for adapting to these changes. The U.S. Southwest is already seeing impacts of climate change, including rising temperatures; increased severity of droughts, floods, and fires; and rising sea levels—all of which can impact troop readiness, site infrastructure, environmental compliance on military installations, and the lives, public health, and property of surrounding communities, Garfin said.

The research team, which also includes the British consulting firm Acclimatise, delivered a detailed report on sea level rise to Naval Base Coronado personnel and modelled current and future wildfire at the base’s inland training facility, Camp Michael Monsoor. In Arizona, the researchers similarly focused on wildfire modeling with managers at Fort Huachuca, and convened climate adaptation workshops at the Barry M. Goldwater Range, East and West. “Our interactions with our DoD colleagues have taught us that when we focus on the missions of these installations—their day-to-day training, operations, and activities—people warm up to discussions about climate change,” Garfin said. “When they reflect on the ways in which historic weather extremes have affected troop training or electric power, they can imagine ways in which plausible climate changes can affect their ability to fulfill missions in the future.”

The scientists are submitting a paper for publication that details findings from the project. Among the conclusions, Garfin said, is that the action-oriented attitude of all branches of the Department of Defense can help personnel rapidly identify and adopt solutions to key climate challenges. Another point, he said, is the department can help build partnerships with other federal and state, tribal, and local agencies that manage neighboring lands to adapt to climate change in a more cost-effective way. “The DoD has been out in front in terms of being proactive in climate change planning at the agency level and is in a good position to lead at the regional level, as well,” Garfin said.