More risks for poor countries in pandemic “A young population, a warmer climate and the fact that so many people live in the countryside could be some of the factors that make Africa better prepared for a Covid-19 pandemic than other continents.” That is what Arne Bigsten, Professor of Development Economics, believes, but he points out that poor countries are usually the ones that are worst affected during pandemics and other catastrophes. THE FACT THAT Africa is not as globalised is often a
drawback, but not always, Arne Bigsten points out. “The financial crisis in 2008-2009 for example, had less of an impact on Africa than on many other parts of the world. And in terms of the spread of contagion, it may be an advantage that the continent is outside the large global partnerships. Fewer tourists and less intensive trade with other parts of the world may some of the reasons behind the fairly late arrival of Covid-19 in Africa.” As the severe consequences of the disease primarily impact older people, it may be an advantage that the African population is young, with a median age of just 18.9 years, compared to that of Europe, which is 42.7 years. In addition, many Africans live in rural areas, which means there is less of a risk of
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the contagion spreading, Arne Bigsten points out. “However, in major cities the situation may become serious, particularly in the slums where people live in cramped conditions and are unable to maintain social distancing. Someone who is poor and living in a large city must also work constantly to make a living, and if the country were to implement a curfew, many people’s livelihoods could be decimated. And in other parts of the world, such as in the US and even Sweden, we see that poor people suffer more as a result of epidemics than people who are better off. ” Poverty and malnutrition are some of the negative factors that Africa is faced with. In addition, the continent is plagued by other diseases, such as malaria and tuberculosis which, in combination with Covid-19, risk becoming even more severe. “FURTHERMORE, AFRICAN countries do not have well-functioning healthcare systems, have few trained care providers and a dearth of intensive-care units.” A global economic recession already have a worse impact on poor countries. But a major famine, like the one in Ethiopia from 1983–1985, is not something Arne Bigsten thinks will happen. “But many people will probably experience se-
However, in major cities the situation may become serious. ARNE BIGSTEN
rious hardship, not least because the development efforts will also be impacted by the travel bans and other logistical barriers that have now been implemented by various countries. Many African countries have implemented a number of restrictions, such as grounding orders for planes and the closing of schools, just as in most European countries, which hopefully will lead to positive results. ” Text: Eva Lundgren Photo: Johan Wingborg
Facts The first case of Covid-19 in Africa occurred in Egypt on February 14. On April 14, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the continent had 15,249 verified cases of Covid-19, including 816 fatalities. The hardest hit African countries are South Africa, Algeria, Egypt and Morocco. Around 1.2 billion people live on the African continent. Would you like to find out more? Do not miss the Coronavirus Webinar hosted by the School of Business, Economics and Law, which commences on April 22 and features Arne Bigsten and others. For more details: https://handels.gu.se/om_handelshogskolan/evenemang/coronaseminarier.
