Short-lived reduction

Pandemic brings no environmental benefits

The global reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 is expected to decline by 8 percent, according to the International Energy Agency, IEA. However, the decline is expected to be short-lived. – People’s changed behaviour can certainly have a symbolic meaning. But for the climate, this 8 percent means nothing, says Deliang Chen, Professor of Physical Meteorology and coordinating lead author at the IPCC.

Text: Eva Lundgren Photo: Johan Wingborg

REDUCTION IN ACTIVITIES, traffic and an increased number of people working from home have led to less greenhouse gas emissions in 2020. – It is of course positive, says Deliang Chen. But greenhouse gases have a long lifespan and have been emitted by humans throughout 200 years of industrialization. Global warming is responding to these accumulated emissions. A reduction of 8 percent in one year means that we will emit 47 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide instead of 51 billion tonnes; it will not affect the climate crisis at all. Furthermore, if we think about what it has cost to reduce the level of emissions, including tens of millions of people who have barely been able to leave their homes and millions of people unemployed, we realize that our current way of life will not be sustainable in the long run.

However, many people have had positive experiences of being forced to change their lives and live in a simpler way – Maybe the pandemic can have a beneficial effect in that we learn to appreciate everyday things, such as taking a walk outdoors and spending time with family and friends, instead of exotic trips to distant lands. If that insight can be maintained, it will of course be good for the climate.

The Covid-19 pandemic can be seen as an indication of what climate change can bring, says Deliang Chen.

– BILL GATES, among others, has pointed out that climate change will have a similar, but more widespread, effect as the pandemic. If emissions continue to increase as they are doing today, it is estimated that they will cause perhaps five times as many deaths as the current pandemic by the turn of the next century. When it comes to the climate, however, it is still possible to act, even though time is running out.

Deliang Chen points out that a crisis often involves new lessons. – The financial crisis of 2008–2009 led to investments in renewable energy that continue to this day. Germany plans to phase out all nuclear power by 2022 and will close its coal-fired power plants by 2038.

Pandemic brings no environmental benefits

A reduction of 8 percent in one year … will not affect the climate crisis at all.

DELIANG CHEN

France is also making major climate investments, as are China and India. But the fact that the United States has left the Paris Agreement is of course not good; if such a large, rich nation does not want to join, then why should smaller and poorer countries make an effort?

Deliang Chen hopes that the different countries around the world will take advantage of the opportunity for change once the pandemic has subsided.

– I AM BIT OF A pessimist, though I don’t want to, because, too often, I have seen political decisions go against what the science says. Throughout history, man has also been shown to have a short memory, so there is a risk that we will soon forget everything we have learned in recent months and revert to our previous way of life. On the positive side, however, there is a clear debate in Europe and elsewhere in the world that the economic recovery must be green. So my hope is that when the wheels eventually start turning again, they will do so in a way that is more sustainable for the climate.