6 minute read
The dangerous lives of dictators.
DICTATORS WITH POWER PROBLEMS
Primogeniture, meaning that the eldest son inherits power in a country, has throughout history led to inappropriate, incompetent and even mentally unstable rulers.
But it is still a system that creates stability. – Who will succeed the leader was a major problem in the kingdoms of ancient times and it still is in today's dictatorships, states Andrej Kokkonen, Senior Lecturer in Political Science.
Text: Eva Lundgren Photo: Johan Wingborg
s a political scientist, Andrej Kokkonen has to answer questions about most things related to politics. Do the Sweden Democrats pose a threat to democracy? Is the current degree of polarization unusually high? Do politicians use emotional arguments instead of referring to facts? – One way to answer these questions is to compare the situation with what it is like in other countries or what it was like historically. For example, both our Nordic neighbours as well as the Netherlands and Austria have or have had governments that include or rely on parties that are critical of immigration. They have not become less democratic as a consequence of this. From a historical perspective, the polarization is not particularly extreme today either. In the 1930s, militias patrolled the streets of Europe and a general escalation of conflict led to a new world war. What is interesting is that over the years, the established democracies in the Western world have managed to withstand various totalitarian forces, which shows that they are incredibly strong, after all.
More worrying is the development in Eastern Europe, Andrej Kokkonen points out. – In Hungary and Poland, for example, there is considerable distrust of those in power, which is partly due to the fact that judges and other senior officials were allowed to keep their jobs after the fall of the Soviet Union. There is also no popular left-wing movement that can balance the conservative forces. That people distrust the politicians is shown by the fact that relatively few people in these countries obeyed the requests of those in power and were vaccinated against COVID-19.
Already as a child, Andrej Kokkonen learned that a historical and international perspective is important. He has relatives from both Estonia and Russia, but perhaps he was influenced most by his grandfather. – He was a Finn but grew up in the Soviet Union. During the war he ended up in a German prison camp while most of his family disappeared in the Gulag. He came to Sweden as a refugee via Finland. He could speak seven languages, was incredibly well educated and very good at telling people about his experiences. Moreover, he had very strong political views. He made a very big impression on me as a child. But I was also influenced by my cousin, whose grandfather was Jewish and had been in a German concentration camp.
Just before the pandemic struck, Andrej Kokkonen and his family returned home from a two-year stint at Aarhus University. There, they are more aware of the importance of international experience than we are in Sweden. – To get a permanent job, you must have worked abroad for at least a year, and even doctoral students must study in another country for one semester. Maybe Swedish universities could take inspiration from this? As a Swede, you actually have a tremendous advantage because we have among the world's best population data. This means that studies of conditions in Sweden can also be interesting internationally, which of course increases the opportunities for different types of collaborations.
In Denmark, Andrej Kokkonen devoted himself to an area he had long studied in Sweden as well: political succession in dictatorships. How the shifts of power take place in a democracy is quite well studied: It is usually not so dramatic because the candidate who loses gets a second chance at the next election. The shifts of power in dictatorships, on the other hand, are much less well-studied. – It is a bit strange because power struggles in a dictatorship can have such serious consequences, in a worst-case scenario, civil war. Sweden, for example, had a very unstable government until Gustav Vasa introduced a hereditary monarchy in the 16th century. Although his sons were rivals for the throne, compared to previous power struggles, the new order brought about considerable stability, relatively speaking. Primogeniture creates a rather perfunctory takeover where the opportunity for intrigue decreases for both the monarch and the various pretenders to the throne, and where the successor is so young that he has time to wait his turn.
This continuity was explained by the historian Ernst Kantorowicz by the fact that the monarch has two bodies, if you will: that of an ordinary mortal and also a political body, which lives on in the successor, says Andrej Kokkonen. – Today's dictatorships also have problems with succession. North Korea has introduced a kind of hereditary dictatorship which did not, however, prevent Kim Jong-un from having both his half-brother and his uncle executed. When he disappeared from the public eye for a period, it created unrest throughout the region as there does not appear to be a successor. China has had a reasonably orderly process for the change of power in
recent decades, but that has been altered as Xi Jinping abolished the limit on how long he can be president. Even in Russia, there does not seem to be a plan for who will take over after the increasingly dictatorial Vladimir Putin.
For those who are interested in political history, there is a lot of material to study in Europe and parts of Asia. Developments in other areas are less well known. This is the reason why Andrej Kokkonen has been involved for some time in a unique project that will create a database of all the heads of state in the world during a thousand years. The database already contains 20,000 names. – If you do not know anything else about a country, you usually at least know the country's rulers during different eras. By compiling data on world leaders, we get a more accurate picture of global developments. We can examine what drives or impedes political stability, at what age one becomes a ruler, when a country has its first female leader, and so on. In this way, we also get a better picture of the transfer of power even in countries about which we otherwise do not have much knowledge.
If the political development in stable democracies like Sweden does not particularly concern Andrej Kokkonen, there is something else that does concern him. – The state has never before in history had the opportunity to control people to the extent that it does now. In China, for example, there is a system that gives people points for how they behave in shops or public places, which then affects their job opportunities or their ability to travel. The democratic United States is also engaged in wide-scale monitoring of the everyday lives of its citizens. This development could also come to Sweden. Not only states but also private companies collect information about individuals. – Google, Twitter and Facebook have a monopoly position, which gives them tremendous power. From a democratic point of view, it was therefore portentous when Twitter shut down Donald Trump’s account. In a democracy, open debate must always be safeguarded, even less pleasant thoughts and ideas must be allowed to be put forward.
Andrej Kokkonen
Works as: Senior Lecturer in Political Science. Currently: Engaged in a project on the democratic views of voters who are critical of immigration, and a project on affective polarization. Plans to publish a book next year with Oxford University Press on political succession. Lives in: Majorna Family: Partner and five-year-old daughter. Most recently read book: The Horde by Marie Favereau. Most recently watched film: The Lighthouse, but watches mostly tv-series, such as The Mire 97. Likes to listen to: Neil Young, Leonard Cohen and Townes van Zandt. Favourite dish: A bloody steak from Argentina. Preferably with a strong red wine. Hobbies: History, football (IFK Göteborg).
