Key trends to steer urban story in 2022

Cities in the last two consecutive years lived under the threat of Covid-19. Cities mainly focused on Pandemic management, building resilience to health disasters, adapting to digital technologies for better service delivery and efficient communication with their citizens. The Pandemic did slow down several urban agendas, but it accelerated efforts in some areas. The Year 2022 has arrived with new hopes and aspirations. With India achieving over 150 cr vaccine doses, the threat of the virus is gradually fading, and cities are pulling up their socks to be back on track to achieve what they desired and envisioned in pre-Pandemic times

Ranjit S Chavan | President, AIILSG

ities are changing with the physical and social alterations in urban ecosystems. So are citizens and their demands. Their demands, needs and also operational mechanism are witnessing a major shift. India still majorly lives in its villages, about two-thirds of the total population. The situation will change in the coming decades. Despite global trends suggesting a decline in overall population growth, the number of people living in urban areas is bound to grow due to various social and economic factors. For this, cities need to be prepared.

OuTcOMe OF SMArT cITIeS AnD SBM PrOjecTS

This year will be a defining moment for the success of the Smart cities Mission launched in 2015 by the Government of India. A majority of the works proposed under the Mission will see the light of the day. It is to be noted that over 5000 projects worth `200,000 crore investment are proposed in 100 smart cities. While 6723 projects costing 188,735 cr have been tendered, 6123 projects costing 163,029 cr are in the work order stage. And, 3423 projects worth 58000 cr have already been completed. The successful smart cities will become lighthouses for other cities and towns which were not part of the project. The successful emulation and scale-up of such projects will trickle down to smaller towns and cities, which could lessen the burden on metropolitan cities like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru. Indian policymakers, planners, politicians and the public will

be able to understand the contours of a smart city. The government has also made an ambitious plan of making urban spaces garbage free and water plus. The garbage-free city aims to achieve cleanliness in Indian cities to a model 7-star rating level and water plus cities ensures adequate sanitation management by making sure no untreated water is discharged in the open. Since urban local bodies in India have performed well under the Swachh Bharat Mission and have taken a slew of measures to improve overall sanitation and waste management, the garbagefree tag will add another feather in the cap of our cities that are working well in the area of sanitation.

The higher funds allocation by the 15th Finance commission to urban local bodies will also accelerate urban reforms. According to the report, it is a 78 per cent increase, from `87,143 crore in the 14th Finance commission period to `1,55,628 crore in the 15th Finance commission’s period.

jAl jeevAn MISSIOn

The year will witness a significant thrust on improving water supply and management in urban and rural areas. The year will undoubtedly see a substantial jump in the number of Functional Household Tap connections (FHTc) in all the cities and statutory towns of the country. At present, the gap is about 2.68 cr connections in urban areas.

It is encouraging to see that jal jeevan Mission has increased the FHTc coverage in rural households from 17 per cent to 46 per cent by connecting over 5.63 cr households with tap water supply. As the performance under the Mission is on track, urban water supply management could also improve. The Mission also aims to reduce non-revenue Water below 20 per cent by strengthening water supply management and increasing awareness on water conservation through Iec campaigns.

Since the roll-out of jal jeevan Mission (jjM), many states have taken a giant leap in providing household water taps. As many as six states have achieved 100 per cent of the target, and another five have reached 80 per cent already. jjM could be a milestone mission for improving civic services in rural areas and can spiral a series of reforms in improving civic services in rural areas.

DeMOGrAPHIc SHIFT

A significant demographic change is gradually emerging in the world. The estimation of many research and academic institutions about the baby boom in the Pandemic era proved to be a false alert. In contrast, the available data and studies suggest a reversal trend. However, it does not mean that the urban population will decline. The proportion of people living in cities will still grow.

We all know that for many years, the population explosion has been a matter of concern in developing countries around the world, including in India, but the trend seems to be reversing recently. Globally, many studies suggest a consistent decline in the birth rate in many countries, including china. China has registered a significant 15 per cent drop in the birth rate since the Pandemic hit the world. china, the most populous country today, has recorded the lowest birthrate and lowest population growth in the last sixty years. Other Asian countries like South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan are also facing the same challenge now. The fertility rate in South Korea is 0.9, the lowest in the world. Taiwan and Singapore also have a fertility rates of around 1. china’s fertility rate is 1.3. empirical evidence suggests that the replacement rate is about 2.1. The study also underlines why the increasing housing and child care costs have impelled people to have fewer babies. The trend is not exclusive to china and South Korea; many developed countries have recorded a decline in the last few years.

A report ‘Proceedings of the national Academy of Sciences uSA’ studied birth rates in 22 high-income countries from 2016 to 2021. It says as many as seven countries registered significant declines in birth rates in the final months of 2020 and the first months of 2021, compared with the same period in previous years. Hungary, Italy, Spain and Portugal had some of the most significant drops: reductions of 8.5, 9.1, 8.4 and 6.6 per cent, respectively. The united States of America saw a decline of 3.8 per cent. As per the national Family Health Survey 5, the situation in India is also similar. The fertility rate in most Indian states has touched or dropped below the replacement rate of 2.1. The country’s Total Fertility rate now stands at 20 children per 1000 woman.

These are some of the major urban trends which will decide the future course of action for cities in India. And, based on the renewed strengths of cities and more focus by the governments and other stakeholders, 2022 will define the new priorities and aspirations of cities in the post-pandemic era.

It is to be noted that over 5000 projects worth ` 200,000 crore investment are proposed in 100 smart cities. While 6723 projects costing 188,735 cr have been tendered, 6123 projects costing 163,029 cr are in the work order stage. And, 3423 projects worth 58000 cr have already been completed. The successful smart cities will become lighthouses for other cities and towns which were not part of the project. The successful emulation and scale-up of such projects will trickle down to smaller towns and cities, which could lessen the burden on metropolitan cities like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru