Can Earth feed 10 billion in 2050?

aRTICLE | Future Food Emergency

Climate change had an adverse impact on agriculture. And the same way, unsustainable agriculture practices have contributed to climate change. To balance things in the long term and ensure enough food on the table for all, nations have to adopt sustainable agriculture practices and watch their actions closely

IndranI PrIyadarshInI | Trainee Reporter

W

orld’s population has recently hit eight billion, according to the United Nations, a new benchmark for humankind. It has been projected that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in the year 2100. A projection that threatens the world food supply as a ‘farming-asusual’ approach could make us run out of food by 2027.

An increase in population will raise the bar for consumption habits, put pressure on food, land, and water shortages, and reduce resilience to fight against climate change.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), we will need to produce 60 per cent more food to feed a population of 10 billion by 2050. As the population is expected to increase mostly in developing countries, production in these countries would need to almost double. FAO report predicts that the production of several key commodities like annual cereal production would have to grow by one billion tonnes and meat production by over 200 million tonnes to reach 470 million tonnes in 2050. To keep up with the projected

population in the near future, an increase in agricultural production needs to run parallel with it. 2.6 billion people are dependent on agriculture as their only source of livelihood. It is one of the most powerful tools for economic growth, improving food security, and helping reduce poverty.

Unlike the pros, agriculture is one of the major contributors to global warming. About 30 per cent of total Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions come from agricultural activities, mainly from the use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and animal wastes. To increase production, farmers either increase the farmland to grow crops or enhance agricultural productivity through fertilizer and irrigation on existing lands. With a growing population, the demand for food and the intensification of unsustainable farming practices will increase emission rates exponentially. It also contributes a major portion of methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide emissions from crop and livestock activities, impacting the sustainability of agricultural production systems.

According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), 11 per cent of global greenhouse emissions is due to agriculture which has risen to 14 per cent since 2000.

China was responsible for most global agricultural GHG emissions from 1996 to 2016, followed by India, Brazil, and the United States. According to a World Resource Institute report, India and China’s agricultural production emissions have increased since 2000 by 16 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively.

With an increasing population and growing food demand, will agricultural production be able to match the projected food demand by 2050 sustainably?

The answer can be yes, depending on the significant steps and challenges that must be implemented immediately. To start with the basics:

SHIFT TO SUSTAINABle dIeTS

Consumption of ruminant meat has been projected to rise, which are resource -intensive to produce and requires 20 times more land. It also emits 20 times more GHG per gram of edible proteins than common plant-based proteins.

NO WASTAGe OF FOOd

Wastage of food occurs all along the food chain, from field to plate. A WRI report has stated that approximately one-quarter of food produced goes uneaten. Therefore, actions can be taken by improving food storage in developing countries, setting reduction targets, and streamlining expiration labels.

INCReASe FOOd pROdUCTION WITHOUT expANdING AGRICUlTURAl lANd

Future yield growth in different crops will need to be higher to meet the food demand. With new advances in biology, additional yield gains can be made available cheaper and faster to map the genetic codes of plants, improving crop breeding.

With an increasing demand for animal-based foods, boosting pasture productivity can be an important solution. Governments can support farmers with financial and technical assistance and with proper veterinary hospitals.

CURBING GHG emISSIONS

One of the major issues to tackle is GHG emissions from agricultural production from livestock farming, rice cultivation, and energy use and application of nitrogen fertilizers. By 2050, GHG emissions are projected to rise from seven to nine gigatons per year or more. Of these emissions, the largest source is cow burps or enteric methane. A full-grown cow can release up to 5000 litres of methane per day, and with more than a billion cows on this planet, approximately 3.7 per cent of all GHG emissions account for this. A diet rich in maize, garlic and barley can reduce methane levels in cows and show substantial impact by dietary supplements.

By 2050, the world must be able to feed more people nutritiously, ensure agriculture contributes to poverty reduction and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts of farming. All these goals need to be pursued simultaneously, exclusion of others will lead to failure to achieve any of them.

India is one of the highest contributors to GHG emissions and one of the most populous countries in the world. last year, it did not sign the Sustainable Agriculture policy Action Agenda at the Conference of parties 26 (COp26) summit. This agenda is to set a course of action to prevent biodiversity loss and protect food systems against climate change. However, India has a similar mission for sustainable agriculture within the National Action plan on Climate Change.

Some of the ways India can prioritize making Indian agriculture resilient and sustainable and also prepare itself for 2050 by adapting agro-ecological approaches, conservation agriculture practices such as no-till farming and crop rotation, which could be very helpful in reducing GHG emissions, and organic farming that involves crop cultivation can be practised among others.

Since we are still 28 years from 2050 and predictions can only shed light on the future, we can still be hopeful and act accordingly with proper action plans. much will happen between now and then, which we cannot predict.

By 2050, the world must be able to feed more people nutritiously, ensure agriculture contributes to poverty reduction and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts of farming. All these goals need to be pursued simultaneously, exclusion of others will lead to failure to achieve any of them