let’stalktactics
Asking the Right Questions By Jeff Soo
Note: For ball colors, I use the abbreviations popularized by Keith Wylie’s Expert Croquet Tactics. The four balls are U, R, K and Y; the two sides are UK and RY. I thank my illustrious predecessors for entrusting me with this long-running column. Let’s dive right in. U is to play and has no deadness. Each of the other three balls is partner dead. U and Y are for 2, R and K are for 3 and a lot of time is left in the game.
Note that U is about the same distance from each of the other three balls. Also note that K is in plausible scoring position (about 3 feet, moderately angled). R is about a yard from the boundary. What shot would you take with U? Think through some options and decide on a play before reading on. I can think of five plausible choices for U’s first shot: the three possible roquets, plus two defensive plays—guarding R’s shot (i.e., playing to the east boundary to “catch” R if it misses K) and guarding 2 from the west boundary. The variations multiply if U makes a roquet. Analyzing all these plays on paper is a useful exercise but is hardly possible within the time constraints of an actual game (nor within the space constraints of a magazine article). And too many details can lead to decision paralysis. Start with the big picture: does UK face a problem here or an opportunity? Nearly all positions are a mix of problems and opportunities (defensive and offensive considerations). Again: simplify. What’s the most obvious problem, and what’s the best opportunity? The obvious problem is K is at R’s wicket; given R’s deadness, R would love to have a shot at K. The golden opportunity is Y is at U’s wicket, with U alive on all balls. U’s shots are all shorter than R’s shot at K. U has a possible four-ball break, while R is only hoping for a single wicket. Both factors point the same way: this is an opportunity, not a problem, and UK should try to roquet something. Our quick analysis has answered the most
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important question: offense or defense? By narrowing our choice to a single category, not only do we remove some plays from consideration, but we also make it easier to compare the remaining plays. Which ball should U shoot at? Again, we don’t have time to analyze each play in detail. We can hardly find a better model for keeping it simple than Sesame Street: “one of these things is not like the others.” Can you guess which one? The three shots are roughly the same length, but R is much closer to the boundary than the other two. U would have to shoot gently, reducing the odds of a roquet, and the downside of missing (or, worse, hitting R out) is severe. Two options remain. One of the main reasons we picked offense over defense is that U has a potential four-ball break. The answer, then, is to pick the shot that gives U the best chance of making that break. U should shoot at K. Yes, that probably means spoiling K’s nice position as a pioneer and making a peel less likely. Better that, though, than breaking down at 2, which is a real risk if U hits Y first. I’ll have much, much more to say about this in future columns. Asking the right questions is the key to making good decisions quickly.
