The Madness Report: Where Tennessee stands heading into March

Why this bracket doesn’t favor the Vols

There are a lot of high-powered offenses in this region, starting with Tennessee’s first round opponent in Furman.

21-10 (13-3 SEC). Despite the rough 4-5 start, Tennessee has turned it around and seems to be on an upward trajectory.

March is here and the tournament picture is becoming clearer each day.

Tennessee struggled in February, but the past is behind them and the Vols are looking to close out the season with a win before they begin their conquest for back-to-back SEC Tournament Championships.

On the women’s side of things, the Lady Vols early season struggles are a thing of the past and their tournament stock has risen tremendously.

Here is where the Vols and Lady Vols stand in major bracket projections in the first week of March.

The Vols’ chances of securing a No. 2 seed have practically vanished after a five-loss February, but on the bright side, a solid showing in the SEC Tournament would almost guarantee the Vols a No. 3 seed.

In ESPN’s Bracketology, the Vols are the No. 3 seed in the East Region. In the first round, they would take on Furman and the top seeds in their region would be No. 1 Purdue and No. 2 Kansas State.

Why this bracket favors the Vols

There is a lot of room for upsets in the East Region, which means Tennessee could get away with playing an easier team that upset a top seed. Purdue has shown that it is capable of being upset, and it potentially has to get through Arkansas or Purdue, two solid teams.

Kansas State would potentially have to play Michigan State before reaching the Sweet 16, and any Tom Izzo-coached team is capable of succeeding in March, no matter how the season has gone.

If the Vols get lucky, they could avoid playing the top-two seeds in the region.

Furman averages 82.2 points per game and would undoubtedly be a challenge for the Vols. If Furman gets hot, Tennessee could be on upset watch. Kansas State is another solid offense that the Vols would have to get through. Needless to say, Tennessee’s defense would have to be consistent to have success in this bracket.

In CBS Sports’ bracket, the Vols are the No. 4 seed in the East Region and would take on Southern Miss in the first round. The top three seeds in this bracket would be Kansas, Marquette and Gonzaga.

Why this bracket favors the Vols

The East Region in this bracket is arguable the weakest region in the tournament. It doesn’t have a clear favorite and the Vols could very reasonably defeat all of the top teams.

In fact, Tennessee has defeated two of the top teams in Kansas and Gonzaga. Of course, the Gonzaga win was a preseason exhibition game and the Kansas win was back in November, but nonetheless the Vols have seen these teams before.

Why this bracket doesn’t favor the Vols

While having faced some of the top seeds in the bracket could be a plus, it’s also hard to beat a team twice. Tennessee would likely have to do that in this bracket.

Being the No. 4 seed instead of the No. 3 seed also means that Tennessee would have to face a tough team in the second round, in this case, it will likely be San Diego State.

The best-case scenario for the Vols would be having some success in the SEC Tournament and avoid being a No. 4 seed all together.

The Lady Vols finished the regular season

The latest ESPN Bracketology also echoes that the Lady Vols are moving up. According to ESPN’s Charlie Creme, Tennessee is among teams 14-21 that are vying for one of the final top 16 seeds. Tennessee currently sits No. 15 in the NET rankings, which are used to predict postseason seeding.

With a good run in the SEC tournament, and a little help from the teams “ahead” of Tennessee currently, we could see ThompsonBoling Arena host the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.

For now, Creme puts the Lady Vols as a No. 5 seed in the Chapel Hill region. The No. 1 seed on this side is Utah and Seattle would be its regional site for the Sweet 16.

Why this bracket favors the Lady Vols

Tennessee draws No. 12 seed South Dakota State (25-5, 18-0 Summit) as its first-round matchup in this projected bracket. While the Jackrabbits had a successful year and won their conference, they would be severely outsized against Tennessee. Their tallest player is freshman Natalie Nielsen at 6-foot-3.

The second-round matchup would draw region host No. 4 seed North Carolina (20-9, 11-7 ACC). The Tar Heels finished sixth in the ACC and have been very streaky this season.

North Carolina had a losing streak of four at one point during the season, and fell to five unranked opponents throughout the course of the year. Like the Lady Vols, the Tarheels also struggled against ranked foes.

Tennessee should have a favorable matchup with North Carolina to make a Sweet 16.

Why this bracket doesn’t favor the Lady Vols

If Tennessee makes it to the Sweet 16, it would be sent to Seattle. Obviously, Knoxville to Seattle is not favorable.

The other host site, Greeneville, South Carolina, is where Tennessee would rather end up.

On top of a lot of travel, the Lady Vols would draw No. 1 seed Utah (25-3, 15-3 Pac-12) in the Sweet 16. The Utes won the Pac-12 and only lost to Colorado, Stanford and Arizona. All of their losses came on the road.

Utah has good size and ended its regular season with a win over No. 3 Stanford. Tennessee does not match up well in this scenario.