By Kate Brewster

Cultivated Meat: The Future of Agriculture on a Decaying Planet

By Kate Brewster

“We shall escape the absurdity of growing a whole chicken in order to eat the breast or wing, by growing these parts separately under a suitable medium.” - Winston Churchill, 1931

In the battle against climate change, the impacts of energy, fossil fuels, and transportation seem to dominate the mainstream conversation about mitigation efforts while the devastating effects of agriculture on the environment are often overlooked. This may explain why an inventive, science fiction-esque solution to the overconsumption of meat has managed to fly under the radar until very recently. In 1931, Winston Churchill predicted a future in which meat products could be grown independently in a lab. Now, just short of a century later, China’s new FiveYear Agricultural Plan, which includes cultivated meats and other ‘future foods’ such as plant-based eggs as part of its blueprint for food security, is accelerating the market for cultivated meat. This vision of cultivated meat is tauntingly close, and not a second too soon. For the sake of our environment and food security, global agriculture is in desperate need of sustainable change. So how can cultivated meat, a relatively new and untested concept, actually provide a possible solution to food insecurity, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, and global poverty?

The development of agriculture has essentially defined human civilization beginning roughly 10,000 years ago when the world population was around 5 million. From 1940 to 1980, the world population almost doubled, and to account for the burgeoning population, Norman Borlaug famously revolutionized the agricultural industry by engineering crops to improve crop yields, according to Kevin Drum. Since then, the world population has skyrocketed further, from roughly 2 billion to almost 8 billion. We have outsourced our agriculture, converted more land to farmland, and expanded small-scale operations to industrial farms. Still, our agricultural system has not evolved effectively to sustain the growing population. The possibility of eliminating the need for animals to grow meat may seem hard to fathom, but it is becoming glaringly obvious that we need to find alternatives to feed the world while stewarding our resources for future generations. Currently, raising livestock for food accounts for up to 14.5% of global emissions, according to Aryn Baker. Baker also reports that the one billion cows and other livestock used in global agriculture are responsible for releasing an amount of methane equivalent to some 3.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year. If we want to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius, the maximum temperature at which Earth can sustain life as we know it, restructuring our agriculture systems might be a good place to start.

Cultivated meat has the potential to feed growing populations using a fraction of the resources required by traditional agriculture, and the resulting product is cellularly identical to conventional meat. The procedure involves acquiring stem cells from animals in a minimally invasive process. Doctors remove a tiny sample of muscle from the cow using a scalpel and anesthetic and grow those stem cells in a bioreactor at high volumes. The cells are then fed an oxygen rich cell medium containing nutrients and proteins to support their growth as they differentiate into the cell types that make up meat. The resulting conglomeration of skeletal muscle, connective tissues, and fat are harvested and packaged into sellable products, according to Elliot Swartz and Claire Bomkamp. Following the news of China’s plan, there may now be enough interest to raise funds for a largescale project. Investors have already poured billions into plant-based meat, and this technology is even more likely to appeal to meat consumers, for the simple reason that it tastes a whole lot better. If China creates a market for cultivated meat and attracts investors willing to back it, the increased funding will cause market prices to fall, allowing for the possibility of lab grown meat at affordable pricing on shelves at local grocery stores, according to Aryn Baker.

As reported by the World Resources Institute (WRI),

the global demand for meat is set to nearly double by 2050. This trend reflects the direct relationship between developing nations increasing their capital and beginning to increase their meat consumption. The rising demand for meat cannot be met by current agricultural methods without grave climate consequences. Aside from the need to combat food insecurity while limiting emissions, there are other benefits to cultivated meat. Industrial cattle farming is a glamourless field, and there are many ethical concerns surrounding the quality of life for livestock. With the implementation of cellular agriculture, animal rights activists can rest easy knowing that lab grown beef could eventually require only around 30,000 cows compared to the 3 billion being slaughtered annually to meet global demand for beef, according to Joe Fassler of The Counter. A divergence from large-scale farming could also be beneficial for human health. For instance, animal meat simply isn’t an efficient source of nutritional energy; cattle consume roughly 25 calories of plant material for every calorie of edible protein they produce. Fassler also found that cultured meat could achieve an improved ratio of only three to four calories consumed for every four produced. Another concern is that when we raise livestock in crowded, often unsanitary living spaces without enough sunlight or space to live, those animals are at high risk for disease, and antibiotics are used generously in response. When we ingest these animals and the antibiotics contained within their tissues, our bodies develop resistance to those antibiotics, putting us at higher risk for bacterial infections and diseases, according to Michael Rowland of Forbes. When you consider the suspect labor regulations on these types of farms and the elevated risk of zoonotic diseases, it’s easy to imagine that there are probably better methods for meeting demand than conventional animal meat production. Unsurprisingly, large-scale intensive agriculture is bad news for biodiversity, especially considering the amount of land required for fields and pastures, and the massive amount of grains needed to feed livestock. By moving away from largescale farming, we can curb deforestation and convert farmland back to thriving ecosystems.

Alternative meat has been an especially hot topic as of late following China’s January 26, 2022 release of its FiveYear Agricultural Plan. For the first time ever, a government has included cultivated meats in its plans for food security, a plan which promises to cut meat consumption in half by 2030, according to Charlie Campbell of Time Magazine. Cultivated meat has not yet been granted regulatory approval in China (so far, only Singapore has taken this step), but that could soon change as pressure mounts to achieve the five-year plan. This development may spell drastic change for the rest of the world. Charlie Campbell reports that China’s best bet for creating a market for cultivated meat is sweetening the pot for investors by awarding state contracts and government perks like tax breaks and free factory space to companies. Despite the obvious social, economic, and environmental advantages to lab grown meat, the idea hasn’t had its moment

in mainstream culture yet. However, a global superpower like China has the ability to leverage economies of scale, and so it is quite likely that we’ll see cultivated meat gain traction in the United States and other competing nations over the next few years.

We do not have to look too far into the future to imagine the effects this new wave of sustainable agriculture will have on the United States. U.S. Department of Agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack has big plans, having recently announced a $146 million investment in sustainable agriculture. As part of this initiative, Tufts University has been granted $10 million to establish the National Institute for Cellular Agriculture as stated by New Food Magazine. Capitalist nations like the United States cannot regulate private production as easily as China, but private companies worldwide will likely see the value in investing. Vilsack’s announcement precedes speculation about the U.S. Farm Bill, a combination of legislations passed once every year that dictates farming livelihoods, how food is grown, and what kinds of foods are grown. The U.S. Farm Bill will be renewed in 2023, and there is growing pressure to include more climate initiatives. China’s prospective success in implementing cultivated meat into their markets may ultimately determine whether or not the U.S. will follow suit. If lab-cultivated meat is as successful in the fight against climate change as expected, we may very well see its inclusion in the Farm Bill come 2023.

Although many have suggested that a shift to lab based meat is inevitable, a number of barriers still stand in the way of a cultivated meat success story. It is well established that cultivated meat is a more efficient way of obtaining calories than traditional livestock, yet the system still manifests other inefficiencies. For cultivated meat to work on a large scale, we need serious investment in sophisticated equipment. Powering this technology sustainably demands an alternative method to fossil fuels. Furthermore, the amount of bioreactors needed in just one lab facility is staggering. For perspective, according to Fassler, the entire biopharmaceutical industry is powered by roughly 6,300 cubic meters in bioreactor volume; a single meat engineering facility would require nearly a third of this to make only a small fraction of the nation’s meat, 22 million pounds of 100 billion produced annually. A single beef packing plant could produce this amount in a single week, Fassler found. Even if we could produce enough cultivated meat to compete on a larger scale, economists argue that the numbers simply do not work. Based on interacting factors such as cell biology, process design, input expenses, capital costs, and economies of scale, the price of this new meat would come to around $17 per pound, according to David Humbird. The Good Food Institute (GFI) has admitted that a number of things need to change for cultured meat to be cost accessible by 2030, and investors probably should not expect a hugely profitable industry. As most investors are motivated by profit, the industry will likely need public or philanthropic support. This is not outside the realm of possibility since the traditional meat industry does rely on large government subsidies. Cultivated meat does have an advantage over the uncertainty of climate factors in traditional livestock farming, which may eventually cause meat prices to fluctuate dramatically, while lab meat will at least price consistently. But the overarching concern is this: no one has ever produced cultured meat at scale, and there is reasonable doubt that it can even be done. Some scientists insist that cultivated meat will not be economically viable until companies can make cells grow beyond widely recognized biological limits, and there has been little done by GFI to put these fears at rest. Instead, they insist that the amount of interested investors suggests that the industry is possible, without providing actual methods to scale the operation. Even with fancy bioreactors, cells have a tendency to limit their own growth, and there is not much we can do about that. Even so, companies seem to be aware of these obstacles and are still willing to try. The bottom line is that an unprecedented, highly theoretical concept is close to becoming reality, meaning anyone looking to get in on the market will need to be comfortable placing some “informed bets,” with no guarantee of great profit.

Could cultivated meat actually offer a possible solution to both hunger and climate change? Only time will tell. Like with any sustainable agriculture proposal, there are trade-offs to cultured meat, and it is certainly not a perfect solution. Despite this valid skepticism, if we can get this right, cultured meat may be one of the best options for food security on a changing planet. There are high hopes for this industry, and as weather patterns become more erratic with climate change, contemporary farming will face serious setbacks. In the coming years, growing seasons may shorten, long periods of drought may become routine, and weather disasters could ruin entire crop yields. The stakes are incredibly high. China has made the leap towards sustainable agriculture, and the U.S. and other nations may follow. As a vegetarian, I never thought I would care so much about the future of animal meat. But if and when affordable cultivated meat makes its way onto the shelves in the U.S., I do not plan to miss the chance to taste the future of sustainable agriculture. H

Art by Wenzdae Wendling