TECH INSIGHTS

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GAME OF DRONES

UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES, WHICH ARE OFTEN SEEN AS TOYS, STILL REPRESENT A GROWING MARKET – INCLUDING IN POLAND. IT’S ENOUGH TO SAY THAT EVEN IN A MODERATE SCENARIO, ITS VALUE IN 2026 WOULD REDUCE PUBLIC DEBT BY 60 PERCENT

BY KRZYSZTOF MACIEJEWSKI

Drones, commonly known as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), really are everywhere. As of December 31, 2017, there were as many as 1.1 million drones in the

US alone. At the end of 2019, according to information from the

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), this number will exceed 2 million. As stated by the “White

Paper Market for Unmanned

Aerial Vehicles” prepared by the

Polish Economic Institute (PIE), the value of the global civil drone market will reach $73.5 billion in 2017-2026, which is equivalent to the annual GDP of Lithuania and Latvia. The value of the European market is estimated at $20.7 billion. But what about Poland?

“Building a new market segment that has great development opportunities will be the next step. Its scale for 2017-2026 is estimated at PLN 3.3 billion. However, the value of integrating drones into the economy (i.e. the indirect benefits that drone use can bring) is significantly higher,” said Piotr Arak, director of the Polish Economic Institute (PIE). DRONE HIGHWAYS

At the very beginning it will be necessary to make the U-space concept real, i.e. a space in which remotely controlled, automatic and (in the future) autonomous flying platforms will safely perform operations in line with precise air traffic management. Before full integration of drones into the economy, it is crucial to ensure safety similar to that in road traffic. According to Małgorzata Darowska, the Minister of Infrastructure’s Plenipotentiary for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, the era of mass

THESE DEVICES ARE OFTEN TREATED BY END USERS AS A NECESSARY EVIL THAT DESTROYS THE EXISTING ORDER, AS ANOTHER WAY TO TAKE PEOPLE’S JOBS

production is coming to an end and the time of specialization is about to begin.

Further development of commercial applications will require the creation of drone traffic rules. “Drones that move in the air, or unmanned aerial vehicles, will become increasingly automated and autonomous. The superior ICT system will create, control and enforce traffic rules in space. Thanks to this, a lifesaving drone will take priority over a drone transporting people or parcels,” explained Darowska. Also, citizens will be able to find out if the drone is “legal,” as well as reserve or make the space over their property available to this type of traffic. “U-space will open a completely new market of technologies and services, with an estimated value of PLN 310 billion to even PLN 913 billion over the next 10 years, depending on the development scenario. Given the moderate development of this sector, in 2017-2026 revenues from the integration of drones into the economy will amount to PLN 576 billion, i.e. the equivalent of the amount that would reduce public debt by 60 percent,” Arak emphasized.

IN THE SKY, AND ON THE ROAD

But where is the market now? “There are over 100,000 drones in Polish airspace, except that this number covers only commercial drones, i.e. those that can be bought in a store. Custom-made drones for a specific application and those constructed by users themselves, e.g. for drone racing, need to be added to that number,” said Dariusz Werschner, president of the board of the Polish Chamber of Unmanned Systems (PISB). In his opinion, the number of unmanned flying devices (as well as those that drive on roads and float on water), will grow, and in the future drones will be as common as smartphones or CCTV cameras are today. There are already a lot of very interesting applications, such as medical transport of blood, test samples and even organs for transplantation. “Drones are great for quick deliveries in the city, as well as over longer distances, e.g. between cities,” said Werschner. It is already technologically possible today. Procedural and legal issues are being developed, and pilot transports in Poland should launch in the next six months.

GETTING STRAGGLERS ON BOARD

The president of PISB pointed out that the situation on the professional drone market is not easy. These devices are often treated by end users as a necessary evil that destroys the existing order, as another way to take people’s jobs. “And that’s not true! Innovations not only do not eliminate people from work processes, but above all often give them new quality and increase safety, e.g. through greater situational awareness. At the Polish Chamber of Unmanned Systems, we try to diagnose all barriers to the implementation of innovation and help companies offering drones and institutions interested in drone services to meet each other,” concluded Werschner.

One of the most interesting solutions that gives drones good publicity is the use of the machines in firefighting or when searching for missing people. However, it turns out that simply equipping the fire brigade with drones is not enough to make them useful. “We learned from firefighters that although they have them in their inventory, they don’t use them at all. The reason for this was the fear of losing them, mainly due to the difficulties associated with landing. In addition, the use of drones meant that one firefighter had to be away from the action because they were completely preoccupied with piloting the vehicle,” explained Łukasz Raczkowski from the Polish start-up Solutions for Tomorrow (S4T). The company has created a module for autonomous landing of drones, which significantly aids firefighters working with them. Now the machine is tasked with the patrol area and the rest of the work is done by the drone itself: from flying over the designated area, detecting a low battery level, through to landing on its own, even on a moving vehicle, and replacing the battery with a new one.

SURVEYOR WITH A REMOTE CONTROL

Surveying is a fairly fast-growing drone market. In this case, the competitive advantage gives the opportunity to take accurate pictures of often inaccessible places. It is especially useful for so-called photogrammetric measurements. “The most commonly used are medium surface drones (a few square kilometers) to create an orthophotomap used in

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planning and controlling investments, as well as performing cubature measurements such as calculating the volume of solid objects. Drone studies also have an invaluable contribution to architectural inventories (measurements of sculptures, basreliefs, barriers, windows, etc.),” noted Marcin Przybysz, team head and surveyor at Geodetic. What are the approximate costs of investing in drone technology for a company that intends to start using it? The price range is substantial, depending on what the drone is to be used for. “The cheapest devices for short-range photogrammetric studies cost about PLN 8,000 for the machine itself. In the case of professional equipment, you should expect a cost of even a million PLN depending on the equipment. The price of software and sophisticated computer hardware able to process the data comes on top of that (another several thousand PLN). The team then needs to be trained, including flight qualifications, and then there’s the cost of maintenance and repair of the equipment,” concluded Przybysz. Maybe that’s why, according to a report published in March 2019 prepared by the trade magazine Geodeta, only 9 percent of surveying companies have drones in their resources, while 11 percent are planning such a purchase.

NICHES AND WHITE SPOTS

Interestingly, according to The Economist, commercial drones constitute only 6 percent of total drone sales in the US, but they provide as much as 60 percent of the industry’s revenues. That’s because of their relatively high prices compared to consumer models. All it takes is mounting a few additional sensors on a regular drone to change a toy into a highly specialized machine worth ten times more.

The global leader in drone production, DJI, is well aware of this. It is based in Shenzen, China, but 80 percent of its products are sold abroad. The Chinese have a very strong position on the US drone market, with a share of over 66 percent in the $1,0002,000 price range and a similar (67 percent) in the $2,000-4,000 bracket. Outside the US, DJI is doing even better. According to the Drone Deploy Report, the company has an 85 percent share in the global commercial drone market. Does the Polish drone industry stand a chance of making its mark amidst the cheap mass-produced junk?

According to Krzysztof Śmierciak, chairman of the board of UAVS Poland, Polish UAVs can successfully compete on the global market, but only in niche solutions. “We can find our place where the rest of the

No-fly zone

There is a long list of countries that do not let drones enter their airspace. In many countries there have been concerns about the possibility of the misuse of drones and threat to security and privacy through unregulated use. In Egypt and North Korea, punishments for operating a drone range from one year in prison plus a fine, up to the death penalty. In Cuba, provisions regarding the importation of unmanned aerial vehicles by natural or legal persons are also subject to scrutiny. That is why the local customs office of the Republic “suggests” that passengers traveling to the country refrain from importing drones in order to avoid inconvenience and unnecessary delays.

Similar restrictions were also introduced in India. The government is concerned that drones could be used in potential terrorist attacks. Indian authorities also say that drones will be used to spy on government installations or that operators will fly them near airports and cause interference with air traffic control. Iran has also banned private drones from flying over Tehran after at least two devices were shot down in 2018 due to security concerns. Licenses will now only be granted to “relevant authorities, not individuals,” the military said at the time. Drones have also been banned in Morocco, Nicaragua, Saudi Arabia, Uganda, Cambodia, Uzbekistan and Zambia.

There’s one country on the “no fly” list that some may find puzzling – Belgium. In this case, the reason is that the country that is home to the EU is way behind in terms of drone legislation. The development of commercial operations using drones in Belgium is still practically impossible. This is despite the fact that there are 330 approved operators in France and over 2,000 in Germany.