Looking Ahead: America and Richmond to 2050
Speech by Joel Kotkin, Chapman University to VCU 23rd Real Estate Trends Conference, October 7, 2013
Long Term Fundamentals • U.S. only advanced country with large, growing population • Huge resource base • Economic system most resilient among advanced countries • Affordable housing attracts key demographic groups • Dispersion and decentralization is the future
More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960-2050
Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope
Labor Force Growth 45% 35%
Growth in Age 15-64
United States, 37%
25% 15% 5% -5% -15% -25% -35%
China, -10% Europe, -21% Korea, -30% Japan, -39%
-45% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
Ratio of Elderly to Working Age Population 65 & OVER PERSONS PER 15-64 YEARS 0.9 2010
0.8 65 & Over Persons per Under 15
0.82
2050
0.7 0.6
0.53
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.1
0.37
0.36
0.3 0.2
Calculated from UN Population Prospects: 2010 Revision
0.34
0.26 0.19 0.12
0.09
0.0 China
Europe
Japan
Singapore
United States
Declustering: The New Demography • Nationwide people heading to smaller towns and cities • Social trends strongly prosuburban • Growth shifts to “opportunity regions”
Top States for New Plants, 2010
Population trends 2012 Population
2001-2012 Growth
2013-2023 Projection
Great Lakes
58,204,741
3%
1%
Plains
40,198,802
14%
6%
Inland West
31,937,817
21%
7%
Left Coast
18,754,371
10%
5%
NE
41,377,960
6%
3%
SoCal
20,738,971
10%
5%
SE
60,684,462
14%
5%
Third Coast
16,421,390
16%
7%
Miami
5,729,000
12%
6%
NY
19,109,549
3%
3%
Cities of Aspiration, Demographic Trends: DOMESTIC MIGRATION
2007-2012 (Excluding 2010) Divided by 2007 Population (Census Bureau) 7.00% 5.00% 3.00% 1.00% -1.00% -3.00% -5.00%
Share of 2000 Population
Net Domestic Migration by Population MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-09, 2010-12 4% 3.7% 2% 0%
1.4% Over 10M
-2%
5M-10M -2.5%
2.5M-5M
0.6% 1M-2.5M
-4% -6%
From Census Bureau Data
-8% -10% -12%
-11.3%
Other
Housing Affordability & Domestic Migration % US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-2012 6% ### Notes needed
% of 2000 Population
4% 2% 0% -2%
2.0-2.9
3.0-3.9
4.0-4.9
5.0-5.9
6.0-6.9
7.0 & Over
-4% -6% -8% -10% -12%
Median Multiple
Figure 12
Workforce Wages & Qualifying Incomes ORANGE COUNTY & INLAND EMPIRE $120,000 $100,305 $88,258
$80,000
Orange County Wages $79,414
$77,745
$60,000
TO QUALIFY: Riverside-San $56,908 Bernardino: $42,420
$40,000
$41,453
Construction Laborer
Carpenter
Elementary School Teacher
Computer Programmer
Nurse (RN)
Biomedical Engineer
$0
$24,042
Personal & Home Care Aide
$28,280
$20,000
Retail Salesperson
$100,000
TO QUALIFY: Orange County: $117,471
“Qualifying income (with 10% down payment)” data from National Association of Realtors & actual wage data from California Employment Development Dept.
Richmond MSA Net Domestic Migration, 2000-2010
Blue: Moving out of Richmond Orange: Moving in to Richmond Source: IRS Migration Data
2000-2010 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
13,504
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
12,877
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
8,194
Charlottesville, VA
2,535
Net Losses -690
Raleigh-Cary, NC
-825
St. Louis, MO-IL
-1009
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC
-1091
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
Source: IRS Migration Data
Cities of Aspiration, Demographic Trends: CHANGES IN COLLEGE GRADUATE POPULATION 2007-2011 Percentage Change: Age 25 and Over (ACS)
Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV Seattle, WA San Jose, CA San Francisco, Oakland, CA Riverside-San Bernardino, CA Richmond, VA Raleigh, NC Oklahoma City, OK New York, NY-NJ-PA Los Angeles, CA Chicago , IL-IN-WI Charlotte, NC-SC Boston, MA-NH Baltimore, MD Austin, TX 0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Cities of Aspiration, Quality of Life Outcomes: TRAFFIC CONGESTION Time Lost in Peak Hour Congestion: 2012 Average (INRIX) 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00%
“We’ve reached the limits of suburban development .People are beginning to vote with their feet and come back to the central cities.” HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan Feb 2011
Preferred vs. Actual Community Type
2011 Community Preference Survey, Belden Russonello & Stewart. Conducted for the National Association of Realtors
Preferred vs. Actual Housing Type
2011 Community Preference Survey, Belden Russonello & Stewart. Conducted for the National Association of Realtors
Population Growth by Distance from Core US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-2010 9,000,000 8,000,000
Data from Census Bureau
Population Growth
7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000
8,566,000
4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 -1,000,000
3,473,000 2,989,000 1,105,000
206,000 -272,000
Figure 21
Fastest Growing Counties Over 100,000 2010-2012
Williamson, TX Loudoun, VA Hays, TX Orleans, LA Fort Bend, TX Midland, TX Forsyth, GA Montgomery, TN Prince William, VA Osceola, FL
7.94% 7.87% 7.56% 7.39%
7 39%
7.16% 7.14% 7.07% 7.04%
Data from Census Bureau
7.04% 6.97%
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
City of Richmond & Suburban Growth SHARE OF POPULATION GROWTH: 2000-2010 & 2010-2012 100%
Share of Metropolitan Growth
90% 80%
Source: Census Bureau
95.6%
70%
72.7%
60% 50% 40% 30%
27.3%
20% 10% 0%
4.4% 2000-2010
2010-2012
Groups Shaping our Future Demography
–
• Key demographic groups: Immigrants, Millennials, Aging Boomers --- mostly in suburbs • Millennials start to grow up • Shift in geography of family: key to long-term growth
White-Non-Hispanic Share of Population US: 1960-2050
100% 90%
Source: Bureau of the Census
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
1960
2010
2020 Projection
Figure 26
Foreign Born Share of New Households US: 1970-2010
70% 60% 50%
Source: Myers & Pitkin
40% 30% 20%
Total
10% 0%
Owner Renter
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
Figure 27
A Majority of Immigrants Now Reside In The Suburbs
U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey
Change in Asian Population: 2000-2010 BY CORE CITIES & SUBURBS
Increase: Major Metropolitan Areas
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Core Cities
Suburbs
Figure 29
Cities of Aspiration, Demographic Trends: CHANGES IN FOREIGN BORN POPULATION 2007-2011 Percentage Change: (ACS)
35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00%
Millennials rival Boomers Population in Millions 81.6
81.0
57.3
Millennials (Age 12 - 30)
Gen X (Age 31 - 44)
Boomers (Age 45 - 64)
U.S. Census Population Projections, 2008
Millions
Number of 30 - 45 year olds in United States
2050, 88.09 Million
90
2025, 74.73 Million 80
2010, 66.14 Million
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Source: Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census Population Projections, Released 2008
Millennials and the Family Sources of Happiness of 13-24 year olds 76
85% plan to get married
72 53
52
43
35
77% probably or definitely want children
Associated Press/MTV Survey, 2007
Millennial Life Style Choices COMPARED TO OLDER GENERATIONS Current Residence
Big City Suburb Source: Frank N. Magid Associates
Small City Country
Millenials Older Generations
Ideal Place to Live
Big City Suburb Small City Country 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Figure 34
Change in 5-17 Population: 2000-2010 MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREA EXAMPLES 60% Source: Census Data
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%
Change
No Children: Housing Affordability METROPOLITAN AREAS: WOMEN AGED 15-45: 2010 10%
Variation from National Average
8% 6% 4%
VARIATION FROM NATIONAL AVERAGE Median Multiple (Median House Price/ Median Household Income) 2001-2010 Average
-2% -4%
No own children at home Higher where higher density
3.0%
2% 0%
9.7%
1.3% Affordable (3.0 & Under)
Moderately Seriously Unaffordable Severely Unaffordable Unaffordable (3.1-4.0) (4.1-5.0) (5.1 & Over)
-2.5% Population per Square Mile
Share Under Age 15, 2012 Inland West
21.5%
Plains
21.2%
Third Coast SoCal
20.7% 20.1%
SE
19.2%
Great Lakes
19.1%
Left Coast
18.7%
NY
18.4%
NE Miami
18.0% 17.3%
Millions
Number of 65 - 100 year olds in United States 90
80
2050, 88.55 Million
2030, 72.09 Million
70
60
50
2008, 38.69 Million 40
30
20
10
0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
NewGeography.com
Source: Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census Population Projections, Released 2008
90% of people over fifty would rather stay put than move - AARP
“They don’t want to move to Florida, and they want to stay close to the kids. What they are looking for is a funky suburban development – funky but safe.” - Washington-area developer Jeff Lee. Photo: Vlastula
Empty Nesters: To Less Dense Areas MAJOR METROPOLITAN & SMALLER AREAS 6.0% 4.0%
Change in Share of Cohort
2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
Major Metro Core Cities
Major Metro Suburbs
Smaller Areas
-6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%
65-74 Population in 2010 Compared to 55-64 in 2000 Source: US Census Data
Looking Ahead: Richmond and America in 2050 • • • •
Affordable Housing and Business Climate Key Attractors Focus on immigrants, millennials and aging boomers Both suburbs and center- city are critical to retaining regional edge Take Advantage of Richmond’s position in burgeoning southeast
JOELKOTKIN.COM A vivid snapshot of America in 2050 focusing on the evolution of the more intimate units of American society—families, towns, neighborhoods, industries. It is upon the success or failure of these communities that the American future rests.
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