Great Transition Initiative Visions and Pathways for a Hopeful Future
Great Transition Initiative A global network for elaborating visions and strategies for a future of enriched lives, human solidarity, and a healthy planet.
Perspectives
Planetary Phase of Civilization
…binding the world’s people biosphere into one Some …but form the outcome of planetary is uncertain societyand is and taking contested. shape... globalChoice system with one destiny... Human The …but, to create is not somewhere a world must we’re going, be able it’slives, something to imagine …a future Great Transition –– awe future offirst enriched human we it… are creating… solidarity and a healthy planet –– is still possible.
Global Citizens Movement
…a global citizens movement must be rooted a on the …and …civil asociety’s politics of energy trust that andcombined diversity tolerates are differences key,ofin but The transition requires the efforts many actors… shared vision… path fragmentation to our common is a liability… future.
The Big Picture A long view reveals two macro-transformations inPlanetary human history... Phase
c. 100 years ?
Complexity
We are now in the midst of a third transition...
Modern Era c. 1,000 years Stone Age c. 100,000 years
20,000
Early Civilization c. 10,000 years
10,000 Years Before Present
0
Accelerated Change Historical transitions are speeding up‌.
Planetary Phase
Modern Era Early Civilization Stone Age
105
104
Note logarithmic scale
103 Years Before Present
102
Planetary Transition Global Connectivity
The defining feature of the planetary phase is increasing global connectivity…
Global environmental change Information technology Collapse of USSR, hegemony of capitalism
Take-off 1980 -
1950
Economic globalization, WTO, multinationals Earth Summit, NGOs as a “third force” Earth Charter, World Social Forum Fundamentalist reaction, Great Power counter-reaction
2000
2050
Branch Points
Out of the turbulence of global change, very different scenarios can emerge‌
Global Scenarios Conventional Worlds Variations…. •Globalization evolves Powerful global gradually actors advance the of economic •priority Dominant values growth spread
Barbarization
Great Transitions
•Social, environmental An authoritarian and economic response to global instability threatsamplify –– elites retreat to protected •General global crises enclaves strike
A highly •New valueslocalist and vision that is a institutions ascend strong theme within •Human solidarity the antistrengthens globalization •Deepmovement respect for
•Developing countries converge toward rich- •Civilized norms erode market forces fortress world country patterns of development
Comprehensive government initiatives seek to attain social and environmental goals
policy reform
Conflicts and crises spiral out of control and institutions collapse
breakdown
nature becomes norm eco-communalism
..validates ..in quest global of a Seeks to change the solidarity, cultural humanistic, character of global cross-fertilization GTI’s Focus ecological and civilization rather and economic liberatory than retreat into connectedness.. transition localism…
new sustainability
Market Forces could succumb to its internal contradictions‌
Risky Bequest
Barbarization If market adaptations are not sufficient…
Xenophobia
Conflict Resentment Inequity Environment
…a Fortress World could consolidate… …a tragic negation of hopes for a better world
Sustainability sharply bending these curves… But the trends requires are perilous… In the 20th Century, those hopes were crystallized in four great Development Freedom Peace aspirations for global society… 1 billion 30 1
1980 2020
Hunger
Social Equity
Major Conflicts
Bending the Curve
2060
1980 2020
1980 2020
2060
2060
Ecosystems 4.5 billion
300 1980 2020
2060
Forests (ha)
Climate
CO2(ppm)
550
3 1980 2020
2060
People in stress
Environmental Health Water 5 billion
1980 2020
2060
Limits of the Reform Path Policy Reform would takes up this challenge. But is it enough?
Policy Reform in is a big “if”… It is feasible, principle – the necessary technologies and policies are available And is it a desirable vision of the future? But daunting, in practice – gradually bending Or might it lead to a well-engineered mall, highly unsustainable trends imposesglobal immense rather than a place of human fulfillment? technological and policy challenges The of the meaning of–“the good life” Theredefinition critical uncertainty remains where would isthe fundamental to come a Great Transition… political will from?
New Sustainability Paradigm A values-led vision that prioritizes •Quality of life
…not just the quantity of things
•Human solidarity
…from local to global levels
•Ecological sensibility
…humanity as part of the wider community of life
A pluralistic scenario
…diverse forms of regional development, building on local resources and traditions
Proximate and Ultimate Drivers Conventional strategies operate on the proximate levers that Population Technology Economy Governance directly influence‌
Knowledge and Values and Power Culture Great Transition strategies go to the ultimate drivers that shape Understanding Needs Structure society and the human experience‌
Tools for Transitions consumption Well-being, Gap between level of rich rich and poor consumption, widens … and resource throughput flows are poor correlated…
well-being
Market Forces
Policy Reform
Great Transition
Consumption Povertypoverty de-coupled reduction spring from dematerialization programs bring throughputwedge up the bottom… through better technology… Rooted in Consumption building more lifestyle wedge and well-being equitable social dematerialization de-coupled… relations… wedge
equity clamp
Dimensions of Transition
…rely on renewable A Great Transition would …build involve resources, Technology changes in all aspects of culture… industrial ecology stakeholder Governance partnerships at all levels …make the economy a means of Economic serving people and preserving nature …ensure rights, eradicate poverty, Social celebrate diversity
…stabilize populations and Demographic create sustainable communities … counter…highlight systemic consumerism, Knowledge individualism, Valuesapproaches domination of nature
Change Agents in a Great Transition Will the political will Intergovernmental emerge?
organizations Will civil society overcome fragmentation and begin to Civil society unify around a common vision?
Will corporations become Transnational responsible global citizens?
corporations
The answers on the ‌there will depend be no Great An of aware and quality awareness and Transition without a Global engagement of public the citizens Citizens Movement for one. engaged of the world‌
The core question that inspires our work‌
Which world do we want?