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Overall Demand for Products and Services
While there seems to be a plethora of independent (but pricey) market research services attempting to analyze the DMEPOS market spend and growth trends, I prefer to monitor the regular updates of CMS’ estimates of national health expenditures (NHE). On a macro basis, national health spending is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.4% for 2019–28 and to reach $6.2 trillion by 2028. Because national health expenditures are projected to grow 1.1 percentage points faster than gross domestic product per year on average over 2019–28, the health share of the economy is projected to rise from 17.7% in 2018 to 19.7% in 2028. Among major payers, Medicare is expected to experience the fastest spending growth (7.6% per year over 2019–28), largely as a result of having the highest projected enrollment growth. [ National health spending is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.4% for 2019–28 and to reach $6.2 trillion by 2028. ]
Citing “Table 15” of the NHE link above, DMEPOS spending is projected to total $62 billion this year, representing a 6.35% increase from 2019. The government’s estimate for the next decade hovers around high 5% to low 6% per annum. Medicare increases are, comparatively—and perhaps not unexpectedly— less than the growth rate of private health insurances and Medicaid. The average per capita DME spend in the U.S. is estimated at $187 this year, increasing to $280 in 2028. There is much more detail available via the NHE tables, and I urge readers to review.
I mentioned above the possibility of a “pandemic effect” relative to the number of DMEPOS suppliers. As the NHE estimates were updated March 8, 2020, there certainly exists the possibility of a decrease in 2020 (and 2021) spending amounts for the same reason. Overall, market demographics and chronic conditions will remain key leading indicators— and the long-term demand will remain strong—but the industry is (obviously) subject to the COVID-19 effect.
